Three million Kindle users by end of 2010, says analyst

Alexander Turcic · 08-10-2009, 06:53 PM

It's almost two years since its introduction and we still don't know any official numbers of Kindle sales. This doesn't stop the wise guys from Wall Street to crunch their numbers through super-secret spreadsheet algorithms. So did Jim Friedland from the research house Cowen, who's estimating that we'll have 1.5 million active Kindle users by the end of 2009 -- a number to even double to 3.0 million by the end of 2010. Does this sounds crazy to you? No? Then how about this (emphasis mine):

Quote:

Within 5 years, he [Mr. Friedland] estimates, 17% of active Amazon customers will own Kindles - or 4% of the total U.S. population.... In five years, he predicts, Kindle device and content revenues will be 10% of North American sales, or about $2.3 billion in GAAP revenue.

Well, let's say I am "cautiously optimistic." But after today's housing bubble I tend to take things from Wall Street with a hefty grain of salt.

[via Barron's Blog]

JSWolf · 08-10-2009, 06:57 PM

I think if the 600 does have a dictionary that works with ePub and Sony does come out with a larger screen device, I do think Sony will give Amazon a run for their money. Plus selling them outside the USA will help hurt Kindle sales as well.

dmaul1114 · 08-10-2009, 07:09 PM

The real key will be convenience. The wireless store (and the store's selection) are a huge selling point--and the main reason I went with a Kindle over a Sony or something else.

In today's world, convenience is a huge factor for most people. Most all of us are busy as hell with careers, family etc. and have less free time than past generations so any thing that is (or seems) quicker and easier has a leg up.

K-Thom · 08-10-2009, 08:20 PM

Quote:

The real key will be convenience.

Convenience and pervasion. The Kindle already is a mainstream item. Even people who don't own it know about it. 3 million devices is quite an optimistic number, but 2 million plus x are more than realistic, and I don't know of any reading device in Northern America or Europe which comes/came even close in terms of sales.

Sony's only chance to really compete against Amazon (and/or Apple, in the future) is to open a worldwide operating eBook store without any regional restrictions (still would be DRM'd, though) and offer at least one device with WiFi capability.

For now I'd say, the USA are Amazon's turf. eBook devices are just one of the many branches of Sony, thus it will be very interesting to watch how long Sony will stay in this business and how often they release new devices. If sales numbers don't meet the (sometimes unrealistic) expectations, Sony is likely to shut down any project.

Kali Yuga · 08-10-2009, 08:38 PM

Sounds overly optimistic to me. I can see a lot of people reading Kindle books on a variety of devices, but 4% of the US population....?

Quote:

Originally Posted by JSWolf

I think if the 600 does have a dictionary that works with ePub and Sony does come out with a larger screen device, I do think Sony will give Amazon a run for their money. Plus selling them outside the USA will help hurt Kindle sales as well.

Wow, feeling negative lately I see

Unfortunately, Amazon is not releasing sales numbers, and in reaction Sony is no longer releasing numbers as well. So we really don't know how well they are doing.

Besides, the e-book market is still growing, and this is not necessarily a zero-sum game. A sale for Sony is not necessarily a loss for Amazon, or vice versa, as a sale can also be an expansion of the e-book market overall.

igorsk · 08-10-2009, 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

Unfortunately, Amazon is not releasing sales numbers, and in reaction Sony is no longer releasing numbers as well. So we really don't know how well they are doing.

I don't think Sony is "reacting" to Bezos. They did release numbers twice since Kindle started selling (and to Amazon's silence). I think they're just waiting for a good moment or a good number to announce, so I hope we'll hear some hard numbers from Sony on the 24th. From Amazon? Maybe never, if Ks are not selling that well after all.

Kali Yuga · 08-10-2009, 09:37 PM

http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune....-e-reader-war/

"As of last January, Sony had sold more than 400,000 e-reader devices, at which point it stopped disclosing sales. Haber intimates that the company adopted the policy in reaction to Amazon’s reticence. “We were giving out numbers and realized we were the only ones,” he says. “but we’ve sold a significant amount since January, and the momentum is only getting faster and faster.” "

Sorry, I'm not making this stuff up

igorsk · 08-10-2009, 09:51 PM

Okay, I concede the point. However, I still hope Sony will give us something.

Nate the great · 08-10-2009, 10:02 PM

According to my sources, there are less than 500k Kindles out there. Where does this analyst expect to find the other 2.5m users? (Possibly from the same place he found these numbers)

ficbot · 08-10-2009, 10:39 PM

I still think the USA-only aspect is going to come back to hurt the Kindle in the end. They might finally open it up to the world only to find that the large non-American section of the book population has become entrenched with other, maybe better devices. An ebook device from Apple which reads multiple formats and can be managed via iTunes might kill the Kindle for good if such a thing ever happens...

junkyardwillie · 08-10-2009, 11:11 PM

If Amazon sold 3mm Kindles don't you think they would have announced that? Please, he might want to drop a zero off of that estimate

Kris777 · 08-10-2009, 11:25 PM

This numbers can be real.

http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/20...oads-of-30.ars
Apple beat analyst expectations for the launch of the iPhone 3G S. More than 1 million iPhones were sold between Friday and Sunday, and Steve Jobs even made an appearance (in text, anyway) to say something about it.

If Apple sold 1 million iPhones between Friday and Sunday why Amazon cannot sell 3 Mil by the end of 2010?

dmaul1114 · 08-11-2009, 01:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kris777

If Apple sold 1 million iPhones between Friday and Sunday why Amazon cannot sell 3 Mil by the end of 2010?

Because there's a bigger market for soemthing like the iPhone than there are for dedicated readers. Not that many people read enough to justify dropping $299 on a Kindle.

The key could be the user's portion of the statement above. If Amazon is smart they'll continue to allow other devices (like the iPhone) access the Kindle store. That could really expand the e-book market as many people my by the occasional e-book who would never buy a dedicated reader.

ficbot · 08-11-2009, 01:25 AM

Also, the iphone is sold around the world and the Kindle (and Kindle iphone app) are USA only...

Lilly · 08-11-2009, 01:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ficbot

Also, the iphone is sold around the world and the Kindle (and Kindle iphone app) are USA only...

The 1 million was North America only since it was released there 1st; I posted the article a few months ago on another board. Anyway, I just love my readers and I never want to go back to paper books so anything or anyone that can make sure I can keep reading on some type of ebook reader until I'm at least a 100 (70 years from now), has my stamp of approval!

08-10-2009, 10:02 PM	#9
Nate the great Sir Penguin of Edinburgh Posts: 12,375 Karma: 23555235 Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: DC Metro area Device: Shake a stick plus 1	Where are they going to come from? According to my sources, there are less than 500k Kindles out there. Where does this analyst expect to find the other 2.5m users? (Possibly from the same place he found these numbers)

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08-10-2009, 06:57 PM	#2
JSWolf Resident Curmudgeon Posts: 80,784 Karma: 150249619 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Roslindale, Massachusetts Device: Kobo Libra 2, Kobo Aura H2O, PRS-650, PRS-T1, nook STR, PW3	I think if the 600 does have a dictionary that works with ePub and Sony does come out with a larger screen device, I do think Sony will give Amazon a run for their money. Plus selling them outside the USA will help hurt Kindle sales as well.

08-10-2009, 07:09 PM	#3
dmaul1114 Wizard Posts: 2,300 Karma: 1121709 Join Date: Feb 2009 Device: Amazon Kindle 1	The real key will be convenience. The wireless store (and the store's selection) are a huge selling point--and the main reason I went with a Kindle over a Sony or something else. In today's world, convenience is a huge factor for most people. Most all of us are busy as hell with careers, family etc. and have less free time than past generations so any thing that is (or seems) quicker and easier has a leg up.

08-10-2009, 09:37 PM	#7
Kali Yuga Professional Contrarian Posts: 2,045 Karma: 3289631 Join Date: Mar 2009 Device: Kindle 4 No Touchie	http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune....-e-reader-war/ "As of last January, Sony had sold more than 400,000 e-reader devices, at which point it stopped disclosing sales. Haber intimates that the company adopted the policy in reaction to Amazon’s reticence. “We were giving out numbers and realized we were the only ones,” he says. “but we’ve sold a significant amount since January, and the momentum is only getting faster and faster.” " Sorry, I'm not making this stuff up

08-10-2009, 09:51 PM	#8
igorsk Wizard Posts: 3,442 Karma: 300001 Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Belgium Device: PRS-500/505/700, Kindle, Cybook Gen3, Words Gear	Okay, I concede the point. However, I still hope Sony will give us something.

08-10-2009, 10:39 PM	#10
ficbot Wizard Posts: 2,409 Karma: 4132096 Join Date: Sep 2008 Device: Kindle Paperwhite/iOS Kindle App	I still think the USA-only aspect is going to come back to hurt the Kindle in the end. They might finally open it up to the world only to find that the large non-American section of the book population has become entrenched with other, maybe better devices. An ebook device from Apple which reads multiple formats and can be managed via iTunes might kill the Kindle for good if such a thing ever happens...

08-10-2009, 11:11 PM	#11
junkyardwillie Addict Posts: 316 Karma: 570 Join Date: Apr 2008 Device: Onyx Note Pro, Kobo H20 and iPad	If Amazon sold 3mm Kindles don't you think they would have announced that? Please, he might want to drop a zero off of that estimate

08-10-2009, 11:25 PM	#12
Kris777 Banned Posts: 1,767 Karma: 2520493 Join Date: Oct 2008 Device: Nexus 7, jetBook-Lite, jetBook mini, Toshiba Thrive, JETBOOK COLOR	This numbers can be real. http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/20...oads-of-30.ars Apple beat analyst expectations for the launch of the iPhone 3G S. More than 1 million iPhones were sold between Friday and Sunday, and Steve Jobs even made an appearance (in text, anyway) to say something about it. If Apple sold 1 million iPhones between Friday and Sunday why Amazon cannot sell 3 Mil by the end of 2010?

08-11-2009, 01:25 AM	#14
ficbot Wizard Posts: 2,409 Karma: 4132096 Join Date: Sep 2008 Device: Kindle Paperwhite/iOS Kindle App	Also, the iphone is sold around the world and the Kindle (and Kindle iphone app) are USA only...