Defective by Design is targeting the Kindle

[Moejoe]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

Same here. At least when confined to leisure reading as us academics all spend a lot of time reading journal articles, academic books, students papers etc. Probably why so few do much leisure reading and do other stuff in their free time--like play video games.




Agree 100%. I definitely see a device in the future that's basically a more functional and portable tablet PC that nearly everyone has and uses to read, surf the net, watch videos, take notes etc. etc. It will use color e-ink or something else thats easy on the eyes and has long battery life etc.

Something like that will come along a make ereaders that do nothing but display books, magazines etc. obsolete, and will expand ebooks to a wider market than these single purpose ereaders ever could.

I love my Kindle, but ereaders are a niche within a niche since not that many people are avid readers anymore. So it will take a good multipurpose device to really spike ebook interest and sales. Many won't buy a reader, but they may by ebooks if they have a device that has a lot of features and is also a good reader (unlikely the iPhone with it's tiny back lit screen).

That day might already be here, although in a limited way. The Stanza app on the iTouch/Phone has actually been downloaded more times than there have been Sony Reader sales in the last two years, and here in Europe it's fast becoming popular as a way to read (I've already met a few people who are using it as opposed to zero people with a dedicated e-reader). If you're a casual reader, who does an hour or so reading at a time, then battery life isn't so important, and you'd charge once a day anyway. It's portable and can be used in cramped conditions, unlike the bigger e-reading devices. Add that to the Best Seller store on Stanza, no Kindle in Europe yet and you've got a very good argument not to buy a dedicated E-Reader.

I know I'm seriously re-considering my lust for a dedicated e-reader after using the iTouch and Stanza for awhile. The Txtr is still attractive to me, but the iTouch has rapidly become my most used electronic device, and I've actually been reading more since I started using it.

[Sonist]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

... ereaders are a niche within a niche since not that many people are avid readers anymore....

You guys keep saying this, but where do you get your information? From Steve Jobs?

My inkling is, that there are probably more readers today, than at any other point in history.

Literacy was not that high until the 19th century (20th, in many places) and a simple view of demographics will tell you, that there are many more bodies on the planet. Even if most of them are drooling idiots, or read only holy books, a sizable number is still left to sell (cheap) e-readers to.

It's new technology, and it hasn't come to all parts of the world. But neither has the iPhone.

[Moejoe]

Originally Posted by Sonist

You guys keep saying this, but where do you get your information? From Steve Jobs?

My inkling is, that there are probably more readers today, than at any other point in history.

Literacy was not that high until the 19th century (20th, in many places) and a simple view of demographics will tell you, that there are many more bodies on the planet. Even if most of them are drooling idiots, or read only holy books, a sizable number is still left to sell (cheap) e-readers to.

I think the key word is 'avid'. Lots of people read, but not as many read avidly, as in more than a few books a year. Of course I have no solid data to back this up, but I point to anecdotal evidence. I knew lots of people who bought the DaVinci Code and read it, and picked up a bestseller on the way to a holiday, but they don't have bookshelves at home, they don't spend spare income on books over say, movies, video games and DVD. The dedicated e-reader is great if you read lots, but it's got nothing for those people who pick up a few paperbacks to read on holiday. Now if they had a multifunction device that could play music videos, surf the web etc as well as read ebooks, I think the adoption would be far greater.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by Sonist

You guys keep saying this, but where do you get your information? From Steve Jobs?

There was a poll someone posted here the other day that found that 60% of people said they read 1 book or less a year.

So you can imagine how the low the percentage is for avid readers that read several books a month--and are thus the key market for ereaders.

Originally Posted by Moejoe

The dedicated e-reader is great if you read lots, but it's got nothing for those people who pick up a few paperbacks to read on holiday. Now if they had a multifunction device that could play music videos, surf the web etc as well as read ebooks, I think the adoption would be far greater.

Exactly.

Hell I feel kind of silly for buying a used Kindle 1 since I generally buy 5-10 books a year and spend a lot more time (and money) on DVDs/Blu rays and video games than I do books/reading.

But I'm hoping to read more now that I don't have the barrier if having to deal with a physical copy of a book I'll never read again, or trekking to the library.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by Moejoe

That day might already be here, although in a limited way. The Stanza app on the iTouch/Phone has actually been downloaded more times than there have been Sony Reader sales in the last two years, and here in Europe it's fast becoming popular as a way to read (I've already met a few people who are using it as opposed to zero people with a dedicated e-reader). If you're a casual reader, who does an hour or so reading at a time, then battery life isn't so important, and you'd charge once a day anyway. It's portable and can be used in cramped conditions, unlike the bigger e-reading devices. Add that to the Best Seller store on Stanza, no Kindle in Europe yet and you've got a very good argument not to buy a dedicated E-Reader.

That's a good point. If ebooks are doing well on a device poorly suited to reading, imagine how they'd do on a multifunction device well suited to reading like I described?

That type of thing is what could really get ebooks to take off IMO.

[Sonist]

Originally Posted by Moejoe

... I knew lots of people who bought the DaVinci Code and read it, and picked up a bestseller on the way to a holiday, but they don't have bookshelves at home, they don't spend spare income on books over say, movies, video games and DVD....

I am not sure what this proves?

Nothing has changed. A century or two ago, the equivalent demographics did not have libraries either, and were likely to be barely literate. They didn't have much leisure time, but spent a full day in fields, or in the factories. They spent their meager disposable income on beer, not on books.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by Sonist

I am not sure what this proves?

Nothing has changed. A century or two ago, the equivalent demographics did not have libraries either, and were likely to be barely literate. They didn't have much leisure time, but spent a full day in fields, or in the factories. They spent their meager disposable income on beer, not on books.

Past doesn't matter, the present does.

And in the present it's a niche of people who:

1. Read enough books to justify buying a device that's only a reader.
2. And who aren't stubborn and stuck on reading real books.

If you just buy a handful of books a year, there's no point in buying a device that does nothing but books at any price really. And if 60% of people read 1 or fewer books a year.....then yes that's a niche market.

[Sonist]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

There was a poll someone posted here the other day that found that 60% of people said they read 1 book or less a year.

So you can imagine how the low the percentage is for avid readers that read several books a month--and are thus the key market for ereaders.

So? It is very likely that a century ago the statistics were the same.

P.S. I guess you would never have been a ground-level investor in Amazon.com....

[Moejoe]

Originally Posted by Sonist

I am not sure what this proves?

Nothing has changed. A century or two ago, the equivalent demographics did not have libraries either, and were likely to be barely literate. They didn't have much leisure time, but spent a full day in fields, or in the factories. They spent their meager disposable income on beer, not on books.

It proves only that those who make up a majority of sales (and I'm spitballing here becaues I don't have the figures) are those who buy one-off purchases, impluse buys at airports and when on shopping trips, not own full libraries or purchase books regularly. Why would they drop $350 dollars on a device with a grey screen that does only one thing when they can have a full-colour device for significantly less that does everything, including purchasing that last minute book on the way to their holiday? The convergent device would be far more suited to a far greater swathe of the populace, as, rightly or not, it's seen as good value for money.

I have friends who are avid book collectors, have far greater libraries than I, and spend a lot more money and they, as a whole, are very reticent about the idea of a dedicated e-book reader. The same group, shown my iTouch, were far more excited about the idea.

It's all anecdotal, but I think my point is that the ereader is focused upon a niche, not the mass-market, and I can't see it becoming a mass-market device until it's converged.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by Sonist

So? It is very likely that a century ago the statistics were the same.

P.S. I guess you would never have been a ground-level investor in Amazon.com....

Again the past doesn't matter, the present does, so drop that silliness.

And no one is saying ereaders won't stick around and make money.

They can be a profitable niche product. You just seem to take offense at calling them a niche product.

Most successful products are niche products--especially electronic gadgets. Few things become mainstream like cell phones, TVs, dvd players etc. Most are things like PDAs that area niche product but generate nice profits selling to their niche.

Put ereading into a multifunction device that people want for multiple reasons and they can sell ebooks to an even large niche.

That's our point. Niche product doesn't not equal failure. It just means it's not a mainstream product.

[Sonist]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

... And if 60% of people read 1 or fewer books a year.....then yes that's a niche market.

US population in 1900: 76 million
Us population in 2000: 280 million

Forget the 40% who read more than 1 book per year. Do the math on 10% and you'll find that the number is greater than the annual iPhone sales.

I am not saying it will happen in 2009, ereaders are here to stay. It's different technology. It's a niche product, in the sense that Hard cover books are a niche product. Or smart phones.

P.S. And again, downloading a free app on the iPhone is easy to do. It doesn't mean people will actually read books on a 3.5" back-lit screen. I can watch movies on my 24" iMac too, but I don't. I have a large TV for that.

[Sonist]

Originally Posted by Moejoe

... Why would they drop $350 dollars on a device with a grey screen that does only one thing when they can have a full-colour device for significantly less that does everything, including purchasing that last minute book on the way to their holiday? The convergent device would be far more suited to a far greater swathe of the populace, as, rightly or not, it's seen as good value for money....

First, $350 is not a huge amount - many spend more on a dinner with friends.

Second, I am not arguing against convergence, just that at the present time, I don't see an alternative to the e-ink technology. It is a different animal, as I said before. Much better for reading than your iPod. Much. Trust me, I have both.

It is more like paper, thus easier on your eyes over longer periods. When something similar comes along which can do full motion in color, of course it would take over. But there is nothing like this, that you should wait for.

Bigger, cheaper e-ink type screens will come in the next year or so, and so will greater sales.

This is totally anecdotal evidence, but it seems over the past year a third of my friends have purchased an e-reader. Not all are such avid readers. I think Amazon is really spearheading this in the US, and within a year or two it will do it in Europe.

[desertgrandma]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

Past doesn't matter, the present does.

And in the present it's a niche of people who:

1. Read enough books to justify buying a device that's only a reader.
2. And who aren't stubborn and stuck on reading real books.

If you just buy a handful of books a year, there's no point in buying a device that does nothing but books at any price really. And if 60% of people read 1 or fewer books a year.....then yes that's a niche market.

Lets make one thing perfectly clear. E-Books ARE real books. The others are "paper" books

over 80% of the books on my device aren't bought. They are public domain editions of authors who knew how to write and capture, and keep, a readers attention without explicit sex, swearing or in your face violence,. (Not that I'm against those things, but they have their place )

You don't have to BUY books to use the device.....you can also download books from the library's e-book section and read that way.

No drm stripping here, either. They expire at the end of the loan period.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by Sonist

US population in 1900: 76 million
Us population in 2000: 280 million

Forget the 40% who read more than 1 book per year. Do the math on 10% and you'll find that the number is greater than the annual iPhone sales.

I am not saying it will happen in 2009, ereaders are here to stay. It's different technology. It's a niche product, in the sense that Hard cover books are a niche product. Or smart phones.

P.S. And again, downloading a free app on the iPhone is easy to do. It doesn't mean people will actually read books on a 3.5" back-lit screen. I can watch movies on my 24" iMac too, but I don't. I have a large TV for that.

Originally Posted by Sonist

First, $350 is not a huge amount - many spend more on a dinner with friends.

Second, I am not arguing against convergence, just that at the present time, I don't see an alternative to the e-ink technology. It is a different animal, as I said before. Much better for reading than your iPod. Much. Trust me, I have both.

It is more like paper, thus easier on your eyes over longer periods. When something similar comes along which can do full motion in color, of course it would take over. But there is nothing like this, that you should wait for.

Bigger, cheaper e-ink type screens will come in the next year or so, and so will greater sales.

This is totally anecdotal evidence, but it seems over the past year a third of my friends have purchased an e-reader. Not all are such avid readers. I think Amazon is really spearheading this in the US, and within a year or two it will do it in Europe.

Whoa buddy, calm down! Jesus. I guess ereaders have fanboys. I always hate people that get so defense over some product the spent money on.

It's great that you like it, but jesus christ no reason to be so sensitive.

I love my ereader. I love e-ink. But I'm not so blindly loyal to it that I think they're going to be some huge success and sell in numbers like cell phones, ipods or dvd players. Reading is just not that popular in today's culture. So a multifunction device down the road that has e-ink (or something new that looks as much like paper) that can also do full web browsing, computing, movie playback etc. stands a better chance of spreading the market.

And $350 is a lot of money, and you're a rich snob if you think many/most people spend that on dinner with friends. It's especially a lot of money for an ereader, I even think the $200 I paid for my used Kindle 1 was a bit much.

And your evidence is entirely anecdotal. I work in academia so I have a large group of friends who read a ton and make decent money. I'm the first to get an ereader and many think I was crazy to pay $200 for something to read ebooks.

Anyway, I don't know what you're issue is. All of us here like/love our ereaders. But that doesn't mean we have to be blind fanboys and expect someday soon the majority of people will have one.

There's a clear and reasonably sized market for them. They're not going anywhere and companies will make a profit on them. But they'll be a niche market item for the foreseeable future, and there's nothing wrong with that.

I don't see why anyone would be so defensive over perceived "insults" toward a piece of electronics. But I guess I should no better from all the non-sense fanboyism that goes on with video game consoles. But at least most of those people are nerdy kids.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by desertgrandma

Lets make one thing perfectly clear. E-Books ARE real books. The others are "paper" books

I was talking from the tone/standpoint of avid readers who refuse to read anything other than paper books.