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Old 06-07-2013, 05:00 AM   #151
HarryT
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I'd be very surprised to see this device retail for under $1000.
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Old 06-07-2013, 05:23 AM   #152
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Huge spread on prices. If this hadn't been a family friendly site I might just propose a little action.
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Old 06-07-2013, 06:19 AM   #153
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I'd be very surprised to see this device retail for under $1000.
Do you still think so if you take into account the prices for the iRex DR1000 and for the Entourage Edge?
I very much hope that Dulin's books will be right:

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ITs no more difficult to make one size than the other. ... figure $499 or less when it gets a retail price. ... its conceivable that Sony would even try to push this under that to $399
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Old 06-07-2013, 06:39 AM   #154
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Huge spread on prices. If this hadn't been a family friendly site I might just propose a little action.
In 2009 iSuppli did a teardown of the kindle2 and said that the display module was $60. The prices for the displays have obviously dropped in the past 4 years, so even considering that it is 4 times bigger, the display would maybe cost around $150.

For the rest it will depend largely on what the device will be. If they just focus on note taking, keep it pdf-only like the prototype, don't bother with zoom, etc., it can be done very cheaply.

Something like this: http://www.misco.co.uk/Product/19240...igital-Notepad, but with Eink.
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Old 06-07-2013, 07:40 AM   #155
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Do you still think so if you take into account the prices for the iRex DR1000 and for the Entourage Edge?
I very much hope that Dulin's books will be right:
The iRex DR1000S cost 600 British Pounds. The Edge was $539. Both had screens that are half the size of the new Sony.

Granted many years have passed, but the Sony has new screen technology which usually comes with a hefty price.
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Old 06-07-2013, 08:29 AM   #156
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But the iRex and the Edge have been new screen technology at their time too. And even if one considers the bigger screen Sony should be able to offer prices comparable to these two very small companies.

(It was a genuine question, Dulin's Book explained why he thinks 400-500 Dollar but Harry only gave the figure without explanation. I am personally very interested in this reader but when it will be sold above 1.000 Dollar I don't need to think twice about it.)
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Old 06-07-2013, 08:32 AM   #157
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(It was a genuine question, Dulin's Book explained why he thinks 400-500 Dollar but Harry only gave the figure without explanation. I am personally very interested in this reader but when it will be sold above 1.000 Dollar I don't need to think twice about it.)
Simply that I don't think it'll be economically feasible to sell the device for much less. That large screen is probably going to have a low production yield at first, which will make prices high. I may of course be wrong - time will tell .
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Old 06-07-2013, 08:40 AM   #158
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I hope this is one of the (seldom?) cases when you're wrong!
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Old 06-07-2013, 08:55 AM   #159
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Reading the posts I have a couple of questions lurking in my mind:
1. How revolutionary is the Sony Mobius device?
2. What does it take for it to be successful?

Here are my thoughts:

1. I would argue that this device is great, but not all that different from what we have seen before. Large e-ink readers like the Entourage Edge, the Irex DR1000, the Pocketbook 9-series, the Onyx Boox M92, or the Hanvon Wisereader E920 have been around for years - all of these support handwriting. Sure, 13.3 is larger than 9.7 but is that really what prevented those devices from going mainstream? I don't think so. I think that most A4 documents are perfectly legible on a high resolution A5 screen (without margins). The weight is also very similar. The durability provided by the flexible screen is welcome, but it is really necessitated by the large size itself. I don't think that a 10-inch reader (with a traditional, glass screen) in a leather cover is particularly vulnerable to breakage. Touch + wacom? Agan, wonderful, just like in the Hanvon E920 which came out over 2 years ago.

2. So, if the Sony Mobius device is not all that different, how can Sony make it successful, i.e. sell it in large quantities?
- To get the obvious out of the way: price. My feeling is that the price will be around USD 600, and that it will not sell in large numbers. In my opinion, it does not matter whether the buyers are individuals or schools or companies - all three are price-sensitive. Companies already provide their employees with laptops and smartphones, and will be reluctant to buy and maintain a third type of gadget unless it's cheap enough that the marginal increase in productivity is worth it. With schools, it's the same story - as someone has calculated above, the return on investment at USD 500 is marginal, even with a 3-year life - and I think the average life of such a device will be closer to half that. Individuals will always compare such a device with versatile color tablets and conclude that they are not worth the same - this is especially so as wacom stylus support will be the new standard in high-end tablets (in my opinion). I think the price should be around USD 250 for it to sell well – I think we all agree that this will not happen for the next few years.
- Worldwide availability and market presence in U.S. and EU. Most of the devices I listed above have a very low profile in developed markets. Try to buy a Hanvon E920 (arguably the most advanced large e-ink device in the world) and you'll see what I mean. I have never seen a large e-ink reader in any major electronics store in Europe. Before someone mentions China and Russia: I cannot imagine that people there have the money to buy such expensive devices in huge numbers.
- Marketing/advertising. Even if available, people won't flock to buy these tablets - they are not sexy-colorful Ipads that sell themselves. It's not enough for them to be announced on Engadget and Gizmodo. The manufacturers need to find the target market and advertise intensively, to make it „the thing to have” in school and office environments.
- If all those hurdles are cleared, then I should mention decent support for a simple handwriting workflow (write - save – edit - search – backup - retrieve). It sounds so simple... but in my opinion, all of the current devices fail in one way or another. I really hope Sony finally gets it right.

Your thoughts?

Last edited by Jmirko; 06-07-2013 at 09:06 AM.
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Old 06-07-2013, 09:09 AM   #160
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Simply that I don't think it'll be economically feasible to sell the device for much less. That large screen is probably going to have a low production yield at first, which will make prices high. I may of course be wrong - time will tell .
Why do you think that the size will matter to the production yield?
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Old 06-07-2013, 09:11 AM   #161
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The durability provided by the flexible screen is welcome, but it is really necessitated by the large size itself. I don't think that a 10-inch reader (with a traditional, glass screen) in a leather cover is particularly vulnerable to breakage.
True. You don't see many (any?) reports of broken iPad screens.
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Old 06-07-2013, 11:05 AM   #162
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Why do you think that the size will matter to the production yield?
There is X% chance of a single point failure in a given size of screen.
If you are making 4 small screens, and a failure occurs, it will only occur in one of them, so you lose one screen, and keep three.
If you are making one large screen, and a failure occurs, you lose that screen.
Very simplistically, four times the screen area means four times more likely for a defect to occur on that screen.
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Old 06-07-2013, 11:18 AM   #163
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There is X% chance of a single point failure in a given size of screen.
If you are making 4 small screens, and a failure occurs, it will only occur in one of them, so you lose one screen, and keep three.
If you are making one large screen, and a failure occurs, you lose that screen.
Very simplistically, four times the screen area means four times more likely for a defect to occur on that screen.
Exactly. If you have a 10% production defect rate in a screen of a certain size, doubling the linear size of the screen makes it into a 34% defect rate. (The original screen has a 0.9 probability of being defect-free, the larger screen only has a 0.9^4 = 0.66 probability of being defect-free.) So if you charge $20 for the smaller screen, you need to charge $272 (20 x 4 x 3.4) for the larger screen to make the same amount of money from your production run.

Last edited by HarryT; 06-07-2013 at 11:20 AM.
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Old 06-07-2013, 12:47 PM   #164
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Originally Posted by Jmirko View Post
Reading the posts I have a couple of questions lurking in my mind:
1. How revolutionary is the Sony Mobius device?
2. What does it take for it to be successful?

Here are my thoughts:

1. I would argue that this device is great, but not all that different from what we have seen before. Large e-ink readers like the Entourage Edge, the Irex DR1000, the Pocketbook 9-series, the Onyx Boox M92, or the Hanvon Wisereader E920 have been around for years - all of these support handwriting. Sure, 13.3 is larger than 9.7 but is that really what prevented those devices from going mainstream? I don't think so. I think that most A4 documents are perfectly legible on a high resolution A5 screen (without margins). The weight is also very similar. The durability provided by the flexible screen is welcome, but it is really necessitated by the large size itself. I don't think that a 10-inch reader (with a traditional, glass screen) in a leather cover is particularly vulnerable to breakage. Touch + wacom? Agan, wonderful, just like in the Hanvon E920 which came out over 2 years ago.
...

Your thoughts?
I think that the Sony device is different from what we already have, although I would not necessarily call it revolutionary. It has twice the screen area of a 9.7 inch reader. Although some documents may be legible on the 9.7 inch screen, there are many that are not. Even with documents that are legible, having to squint to see small type really defeats one of the main advantages of e-ink, and that is less eyestrain than on a conventional screen. The second major difference between the screen on the new Sony device, and previous e-ink screens, is that the Sony screen is assumed to be less prone to breakage than previous e-ink screens. Many e-ink screens die from minor abuse that LCD screens can tolerate. Further, I have seen plenty of tablets with broken screens. Accidents happen.

I hope that the Sony device is inexpensive. I do not think that it will sell well if it costs more than $400. We know that inexpensive e-ink screens can be made. For example, e-paper screens were used in magazines. Further, flexible e-paper screens have been shown at trade shows for years, so this is far from cutting edge technology.

All of this being said, high resolution screens are expensive. At 150 DPI and 11 inches by 8.5 inches, this screen will have a resolution of 1650X1275. This is higher than most screens on the market, and I expect it to be priced accordingly.
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Old 06-07-2013, 01:57 PM   #165
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Originally Posted by murraypaul View Post
There is X% chance of a single point failure in a given size of screen.
If you are making 4 small screens, and a failure occurs, it will only occur in one of them, so you lose one screen, and keep three.
If you are making one large screen, and a failure occurs, you lose that screen.
Very simplistically, four times the screen area means four times more likely for a defect to occur on that screen.
What kind of failure are you talking about? My devices have some capsules that remain permanently gray. Since a pixel is composed of hundreds of capsules it is not a problem.

Quote:
Originally Posted by HarryT View Post
Exactly. If you have a 10% production defect rate in a screen of a certain size, doubling the linear size of the screen makes it into a 34% defect rate. (The original screen has a 0.9 probability of being defect-free, the larger screen only has a 0.9^4 = 0.66 probability of being defect-free.) So if you charge $20 for the smaller screen, you need to charge $272 (20 x 4 x 3.4) for the larger screen to make the same amount of money from your production run.
Where do you get the 3.4 from? 34% is 0.34 if that is what you were going for, but you wouldn't multiply it like that.

The 2nd grade math goes like this:
$20x4x(0.9/0.66)=$109.09

And I still don't see what size dependent failure you are talking about.
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