Can e-Publishing Overcome Copyright Concerns?

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by Trenien

Oh jeez. Again? The "scarcity is the only way" argument.
Look, Flint puts it better than I do: you don't build a business model (i.e. figure how to make money) and then make reality conforms to it; what you do is look at how reality is and try to build a business that works with it.

Please don't make assumptions based on insufficient evidence about which way I jump in the matter. I'm well aware of the Baen Free Library, and have all of it on my computer and converted for my PDA. I'm probably closer to your point of view than any other.

My point was simply that passing a pbook to someone else and passing an ebook to someone else are not equivalent actions, for the reasons I stated.

I have my own moral stance: I'll happily copy and share books whose licenses permit me to do so. I don't do so otherwise, and it doesn't matter if DRM is present or not. I also buy a lot of books (to the point where I have an offsite storage facility in part to hold the overflow), so I don't feel like I'm depriving authors of sales.
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Dennis

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by Trenien

And you know what, although there are no formal studies, we do have empirical evidence that it has no adverse effect (see Steve's books) and may an overall positive effect (from everything we can hear from Baen).

As I've said before: As a relatively unknown author, I hardly think my case is one to base things on. Find the impact on authors like King and Rowling, and work your way down.

Originally Posted by Trenien

If you can't face the new reality, tough luck. Nobody said life should be fair.

And if someone works out a way to enact real security on the web, worldwide, making anonymous web traffic and transactions all but impossible, I will remember you said that!

[pilotbob]

Originally Posted by Steve Jordan

And if someone works out a way to enact real security on the web, worldwide, making anonymous web traffic and transactions all but impossible, I will remember you said that!

Why would anyone want to do that?

BOb

[Lemurion]

Sending one person a copy of an e-book one owns is not the exactly the same as lending them a paper book. Nor is it the same as putting it on a P2P network. The closest analogy I can think of is the practice of taping a record and giving the tape to a friend. (I know there are more recent examples but that one seems to best exemplify the mindset involved in sending an e-book to a friend.)

That pattern of behavior does build sales in that it introduces people to new creators and they then go out and purchase further products from that creator. Not in every case, but often enough that it's a reasonable expectation that it can produce further revenue through legitimate sales in future.

While I have no evidence to support this: I believe it's more likely that such a file transfer will convert to a future sale (whether e-book or p-book) than P2P use.

[nekokami]

Yes, I think sending one person a copy of an ebook is much more likely to generate additional sales for the author than sharing on P2P. Even if you could track a huge number of P2P downloads, the chances of the downloaders actually noticing they have a specific book, reading it, and going on to look for more of the same (let alone paying for them) has to be vanishingly small.

I'm not one of the people saying that the darknet is going to bring about the end of civilization as we know it, or even take food out of the mouths of existing authors. All I said was that I think authors ought to be paid by those who read and like their books, for the simple reason that otherwise there will be no more books, because the authors will be too busy flipping burgers or whatever to work on writing. I'm pretty open about how the money gets from point a to point b, but people buying books from authors via an intermediary to handle the financial and technical details (including editing, QA and catalog management) is likely to be a good candidate. And I honestly think that for the most part, this method will continue to work, because it's convenient for all parties, relatively safe, and can be financially reasonable (due to the improvements in efficiency possible with digital works over physical volumes). The main people who will necessarily lose out in the transition are printing plant operators, truckers and warehouse workers-- the people who deal strictly with the physical product.

Oh well, I suppose there's not much point in going on about this. We have these debates on a regular basis, and there are a bunch of us middle-path types who try to reason through the situation, and a bunch of people at the two extremes who assume that everyone else is a) against them and b) not worth listening to. I sometimes wonder how often anyone ever learns something new or changes their position. (I do occasionally, which I guess is why I bother participating.)

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by nekokami

Yes, I think sending one person a copy of an ebook is much more likely to generate additional sales for the author than sharing on P2P. Even if you could track a huge number of P2P downloads, the chances of the downloaders actually noticing they have a specific book, reading it, and going on to look for more of the same (let alone paying for them) has to be vanishingly small.

Er, why do you think they are downloading in the first place?

While participants in P2P distribution networks may be anonymous, what is distributed is not. Folks using P2P are looking for specific things, including books. If someone downloads a book via P2P, it's likely it's either a book they want, or a book someone they know wants.

P2P is simply a method of distribution. It implies nothing about the motives of those using it. My guess is that you'll see the same ratio of sales produced by interest in something first obtained as an electronic download as with any other form of distribution.

Consider: the Baen Free Library is generally considered a highly successful method of promotion for Baen books and authors. The Library is made available on the web at Baen's site, and in CDs bound into selected Baen hardcovers. (The web site doesn't have everything -- a fair number fo books are only available on the CDs.) Baencd.thefifthimperium.com has the complete set of CDs available for download, with Baen's approval and permission. You can get them as Zip archives, ISO images, or as torrent files you can fetch using a Bit Torrent client. The latter is P2P, pure and simple.
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Dennis

[Trenien]

Originally Posted by Steve Jordan

As I've said before: As a relatively unknown author, I hardly think my case is one to base things on. Find the impact on authors like King and Rowling, and work your way down.

Honestly, whether authors like King, Rowling, Clancy and the like lose a few sales makes no difference to me. I bought the first four HP, and I had almost written her off when I stumbled upon the fifth on the net, that I downloaded. No way was I going to fork over another 15 euros for that. After skimming through it, my mind was definitly set. I didn't even bother to look up the last two and you know what: Rowling's still a millionaire, with enough money to sustain her family for the next ten generations.

The authors that do care about these figures (for practical reasons, if nothing else) are in between these two extremes. So the question becomes: does the impact of filesharing changes when and how an author can begin to expect to be able to make a living from his craft?
The Baen experiment tends to show that if there is an impact, it's not a negative one.

And if someone works out a way to enact real security on the web, worldwide, making anonymous web traffic and transactions all but impossible, I will remember you said that!

[tompe]

Originally Posted by DMcCunney

Er, why do you think they are downloading in the first place?

While participants in P2P distribution networks may be anonymous, what is distributed is not. Folks using P2P are looking for specific things, including books. If someone downloads a book via P2P, it's likely it's either a book they want, or a book someone they know wants.

To collect. If you download a collection with thousands of authors and their books you do not download it for reading. Also a lot of people download books to be able to search in them and not for reading. I am pretty sure that only a very small percentage of the books that gets downloaded are actually read.

[nekokami]

Originally Posted by DMcCunney

Er, why do you think they are downloading in the first place?

As Tompe wrote, to collect. It's a packrat mentality. I saw it back when people were copying C64 diskettes, I see it with people who download every free 3D model they find, even though they can't even keep track of what they've got, I see it with people who tape movies off cable even though they never find time to watch them. They like HAVING them.

I don't think that describes everybody or every download, but I think it's a lot of what's going on. That's one of the reasons I'm not too worried about darknet traffic.

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by nekokami

As Tompe wrote, to collect. It's a packrat mentality. I saw it back when people were copying C64 diskettes, I see it with people who download every free 3D model they find, even though they can't even keep track of what they've got, I see it with people who tape movies off cable even though they never find time to watch them. They like HAVING them.

I don't think that describes everybody or every download, but I think it's a lot of what's going on. That's one of the reasons I'm not too worried about darknet traffic.

I'm not worried about darknet traffic either. It's like "shrinkage" in the retail trade: it can be reduced but not eliminated, is a cost of business, and somehow, retailers cope.

One difference in darknet downloads is that shrinkage is impossible to measure. There's no way to know how many illegal copies of whatever are downloaded, and what effect it has on sales. And in some cases, producers may not care.

A chap I know was tracking downloads of comic books. The day after an issue hit the stands, high quality scans of the pages het the net. He wanted to know who to talk to at MArvel and DC about it to help stop it. The blunt answer was that Marvel and DC didn't care. The value for them wasn't in the sales of the physical books. It was licensing the rights to the characters for film and TV production. Going after the folks who scanned the comics and made them available wasn't worth the effort.

Yes, the pack rat phenomena exists. People get things because they can. But I don't thnk that describes the motives of all or even the majority of folks who get stuff off the darknet.

P2P may or may not result in greater publicity for, more awareness of, and higher sales for an author. I don't know. But as mentioned, it's simply a distribution method, like email attachments or stuff up on a website for access through http or ftp.
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Dennis

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by Trenien

Rowling's still a millionaire, with enough money to sustain her family for the next ten generations.

Billionaire, actually.

The authors that do care about these figures (for practical reasons, if nothing else) are in between these two extremes. So the question becomes: does the impact of filesharing changes when and how an author can begin to expect to be able to make a living from his craft?
The Baen experiment tends to show that if there is an impact, it's not a negative one.

I think it depends upon the author and the book.

Someone like the NYT's David Pogue will have a different view because of the material. Tech books often have short shelf lives because the technology changes and the book is rapidly out of date and no longer of interest. Fiction has different dynamics.

But no author who hasn't achieved name recognition and consistent good seller (if not best seller) status is likely to make a living at it. I know an assortment of published authors. I can think of three who make their living at it, and in the case of one it's "just barely". The rest have day jobs, and write on the side, or are supported by spouses and don't have to make a living entirely on their own.

The usual advice to aspiring writers is "Don't quit your day job." The late James Blish didn't go full time freelance until his income from royalties on books in print matched his salary from his job. (And ironically, he day job was publicist for the tobacco industry, and kung cancer killed him.)
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Dennis

[tompe]

Originally Posted by DMcCunney

Yes, the pack rat phenomena exists. People get things because they can. But I don't thnk that describes the motives of all or even the majority of folks who get stuff off the darknet.

If you look at the collections you can download is is not reasonable that people downloading a collection will read all the books in the collection or most of them.

P2P may or may not result in greater publicity for, more awareness of, and higher sales for an author. I don't know. But as mentioned, it's simply a distribution method, like email attachments or stuff up on a website for access through http or ftp.

I think this is wrong. It is not simple a distribution method. It is a technical distribution method with an attached sub culture. It is the social thing that is an important aspect of it. And the collecting habit is part of the social thing.

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by tompe

If you look at the collections you can download is is not reasonable that people downloading a collection will read all the books in the collection or most of them.

I never said they would, and so what? I have the entire Baen Free Library collection, including website and CDs. I haven't read all of it, though I expect to read the majority as time goes by.

And how much is downloaded as individual books rather than collections?

I think this is wrong. It is not simple a distribution method. It is a technical distribution method with an attached sub culture. It is the social thing that is an important aspect of it. And the collecting habit is part of the social thing.

It is more than one technical distribution method. And granted the attached sub-culture and collecting habit, I don't see how that matters one way or the other.

The question is whether an author's sales are helped, hindered by, or have no effect from electronic downloads. A book downloaded but never read has no effect at all. If the downloader isn't motivated to read it, they'd hardly have been motivated to buy it. It's only the case where the downloader does read the darknet copy that matters. Will they be motivated to buy that book in a legit edition, or other books by that author? Or will the darknet download satisfy the desire to read the book, and cost the author a potential sale?

I don't know, and at present, we can't know, because there is no way to measure the effects.

My personal feeling is that the darknet isn't a threat to an author's living, simply because the culture surrounding it is a small fraction of the total market.
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Dennis

[tompe]

Originally Posted by DMcCunney

I never said they would, and so what? I have the entire Baen Free Library collection, including website and CDs. I haven't read all of it, though I expect to read the majority as time goes by.

And how much is downloaded as individual books rather than collections?

I think that nearly all that is downloaded are collections. In volume at least it totally dominates.

You objected to the claim that downloaders does not notice that they have a book. And if you are not reading the books why would you know which books you have if you have downloaded thousands of books? I saw one collection with more than 16000 books. Why do you think that people that have downloaded that collection know every book they have on their computer?

It is more than one technical distribution method. And granted the attached sub-culture and collecting habit, I don't see how that matters one way or the other.

You claimed it was just a distribution method. Claims that are wrong need to be corrected. How it matters is another question that I did not take up. But of course it matters since if you describe something wrongly you cannot analyse and build theories of how things works and will work in the future.

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by tompe

I think that nearly all that is downloaded are collections. In volume at least it totally dominates.

You may well be right. I haven't tried to analyze it.

You objected to the claim that downloaders does not notice that they have a book. And if you are not reading the books why would you know which books you have if you have downloaded thousands of books? I saw one collection with more than 16000 books. Why do you think that people that have downloaded that collection know every book they have on their computer?

I don't, but I repeat, "So what?" The question is whether such downloads take actual sales away from an author. If a person isn't even aware he downloaded a book, it hardly counts as a lost sale. A sale is lost if the downloader reads reads the downloaded book instead of actually buying a copy. That's hardly the case in a downloaded collection where the downloader isn't even aware of what all the books are.

You claimed it was just a distribution method. Claims that are wrong need to be corrected. How it matters is another question that I did not take up. But of course it matters since if you describe something wrongly you cannot analyse and build theories of how things works and will work in the future.

It is just a distribution method. The fact that a sub-culture with associated attitudes and practices has grown up around it is a separate, though relevant, issue. Not everyone is a part of that culture or shares those attitudes, even if they do use P2P software.

For instance, I use Bit Torrent for the purpose it was designed for: to minimize the load on servers when files are distributed by distributing the upload and download activities as well. It's just the thing for various open source projects. I don't use it to download ebooks. I have more than I have time to read now, and while I'm a pack rat and collector, I collect things I specifically want to read, and don't grab things just to have them. I know what's in my collection.
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Dennis