How many authors can the consumers sustain?

[Sil_liS]

Somewhere there is a limit to how many authors can make a living out of their IP alone. An increase in the number of authors means that less of them can afford it, and the same thing happens when there is a hugely popular book.

According to wikipedia there are 1882944 new titles published each year. If on average the book consumption would be 1 book/month/person and the average price would be $10 that means that each new title would get $446110 per year. If only 20% makes it to the author, then the author could make $90k per year if they write a new book each year. This would mean that we can sustain the current authors as long as we don't spend the money on PD books and the revenue is distributed evenly.

However if the numbers are closer to only one in 10 people spending on average $120 per year on books, that means that authors can make on average only $9k per year.

It seems like time an effort is spent to get the current readers to spend more money on books instead of getting more readers. The libraries-publishers situation gives the best example of this. Instead of facilitating access to books to get more people reading the publishers hinder it in hopes of getting people to pay for more books. The option for consumers is to go for cheaper or free books. What is the option for authors?

[howyoudoin]

The options for authors are to:

(1) Create compelling enough works to ensure a level of compensation they desire or require.
(2) And/Or rework or calibrate the mechanisms they derive compensation through (evil publishers, self-publish, alter prices etc etc) to achieve the desired levels.
(3) Consider alternate employment, either as replacement or to supplement their writing.
(4) Twiddle their thumbs doing nothing to alter their situation.

People in most fields of work get laid off for reasons of supply-demand mismatch, redundancy, not being good enough etc. Authors need not be seen as any different. Risk is inherent in most endeavours in most fields of work.

[Redcard]

Most authors out there (like myself ) are not supported by the community at all. We just have day jobs.

[taustin]

The average American reads two books per year.

Royalty rates are, from what I understand, considerably less than 20%.

Very few professional writers make a living solely from writing.

[dadioflex]

I suspect that the pot of money being spent on writing will decline over the next few decades, with less money going to middle-men and what there is being spread out over a greater number of authors.

I don't think there's a traditional creative endeavour with a lower barrier to entry than writing, while the competition for people's attention grows more intense every year. Social media appears to have displaced video games as the latest distraction. In combination I think this tends to de-value reading as a hobby, and that will be reflected in revenue. I suspect the average price of paid ebooks will rapidly approach 99c across the board.

Just compare the attention you can get putting a video of your cat on Youtube, compared with spending two years writing and editing a novel. Orange and lemons but there's only so much time to go around.

[howyoudoin]

Originally Posted by dadioflex

Just compare the attention you can get putting a video of your cat on Youtube, compared with spending two years writing and editing a novel. Orange and lemons but there's only so much time to go around.

I don't think it's a valid comparison. I wouldn't spend money to view the cat video, and I definitely wouldn't spend eight hours of my life viewing the video.

Cat videos are lame anyway. I realise this forum is infested with cat owners (the feline critters being the infestation, not the owners, I hasten to clarify), but yeah, cats are lazy, arrogant, disloyal and lame, and shamelessly exploit their supposed cuteness to beguile people unwise enough to actually want to care for the ungrateful ****s. Their appeal probably lies in-part in the fact that they're low-maintenance (read as: Cats spend all day lying around and getting fat, and owners needn't undertake the exercise they'd get if they were properly caring for an awesome pet like a dog, unless of course if the owners were incapacitated in some way, in which case I empathise and understand the need for quiet companionship. Well, I suppose I did manage to insult *some* of the owners this time ).

No, no cat videos. We need something actually funny to make this improper comparison with.

Lets say that there's place in this world for both novels and "man gets hit in groin by football".

[DiapDealer]

Is this like guessing how many jellybeans are in the jar? I'm gonna go with 1,027 authors. Consumers can sustain 1,027 FTEs. Unless they decide to sustain more.

[Joykins]

Originally Posted by Sil_liS

Somewhere there is a limit to how many authors can make a living out of their IP alone. An increase in the number of authors means that less of them can afford it, and the same thing happens when there is a hugely popular book.

Very few authors make a living out of their IP alone. At best they have a revenue stream of sorts. My guess is that most authors do it as one of a few jobs, even if one of those other jobs is "mother."

The best option for an author is to become blindingly popular and middling-prolific, like Stephen King. Unfortunately, it's not an option available to most of them (in some instances this is regardless of talent/skill).

[QuantumIguana]

With cat videos, people watch them for a minute and move on. Most people wouldn't consider home videos on YouTube a substitute for TV.

But cats are great. The low maintenance is a virtue. They don't have to be taken outside, and you don't have to reach down and scoop their poop off the ground. They do it conveniently in a box. And if you have a cat, you can go out of town, just leave the cat plenty of food, plenty of water, plenty of litter and a comfortable place to go to sleep. The cat won't like it a lot, but trying to do that wit a dog would be a disaster.

A cat is more like a roommate. A dog is a need machine, that requires you to bend your life around it.

[howyoudoin]

Originally Posted by QuantumIguana

A cat is more like a roommate. A dog is a need machine, that requires you to bend your life around it.

Most dog owners welcome the 'need machine' as a parent welcomes a child as a need machine. The affection you put in is given back in spades.

[Sil_liS]

Originally Posted by howyoudoin

People in most fields of work get laid off for reasons of supply-demand mismatch, redundancy, not being good enough etc. Authors need not be seen as any different. Risk is inherent in most endeavours in most fields of work.

How do you lay off a self-published writer?

Originally Posted by Redcard

Most authors out there (like myself ) are not supported by the community at all. We just have day jobs.

Wouldn't you want to be supported by the community?

Originally Posted by taustin

The average American reads two books per year.

Royalty rates are, from what I understand, considerably less than 20%.

Very few professional writers make a living solely from writing.

Statistically, from the point of view of the publishers one in 10 people buying 10 books is the same as each of the 10 buying one book. From the point of view of the author one in 10 people buying 10 books can mean at best one sale per title, while each of the 10 people buying one book can mean at best 10 sales per title.

I considered the royalty rates at 20% because while we have the normal rates lower than that, you have to consider the authors that get 70% from Amazon.

Originally Posted by DiapDealer

Is this like guessing how many jellybeans are in the jar? I'm gonna go with 1,027 authors. Consumers can sustain 1,027 FTEs. Unless they decide to sustain more.

FTEs?

Originally Posted by Joykins

Very few authors make a living out of their IP alone. At best they have a revenue stream of sorts. My guess is that most authors do it as one of a few jobs, even if one of those other jobs is "mother."

The best option for an author is to become blindingly popular and middling-prolific, like Stephen King. Unfortunately, it's not an option available to most of them (in some instances this is regardless of talent/skill).

It's survival of the fittest.

[QuantumIguana]

Originally Posted by howyoudoin

Most dog owners welcome the 'need machine' as a parent welcomes a child as a need machine. The affection you put in is given back in spades.

Cat owners are confident enough not to need constant validation the dog brings. And after a couple years, a child takes care of its own feces. And cats do return affection. The mouse the cat leaves on your bed is a sign of affection, the cat is giving you what it thinks is a delicious treat. My cat returns affection whenever I am trying to read, by getting in between me and my book.

[QuantumIguana]

There may be a lot more people writing books, but a lot of these books aren't being read much at all. The only thing an author can do is to keep ahead of the competition; write better books, and better promote them.

[howyoudoin]

Originally Posted by Sil_liS

How do you lay off a self-published writer?

The market 'lays him off', so to speak. Self-employed people shut down non-profitable ventures when they reach the point where they decide they're not getting what they wanted out of it. It's the underlying risk of the venture that was my point.

[Phogg]

Originally Posted by Redcard

Most authors out there (like myself ) are not supported by the community at all. We just have day jobs.

This.

As when the distribution pay walls went down keeping independant musicians went down, you had to consciousely force yourself to not see this was where things were going to go. This is where it continues to go.

It was just as clear that journalism and writing would tread this same path, and they are.

The world does not stand still.