Register Guidelines E-Books Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

 View Poll Results: Which is the most probable result? THH and THT equally likely 14 100.00% THH 0 0% THT 0 0% Voters: 14. You may not vote on this poll

 08-03-2010, 05:28 AM #1 pdurrant The Grand Mouse 高貴的老鼠     Posts: 46,847 Karma: 159995825 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Norfolk, England Device: Kindle Voyage Simpler Probability Puzzle You toss a coin three times. You toss it fairly — on each toss you have a 50% probability of getting Heads or Tails. Bearing in mind the previous puzzle, are you more likely to get THH or THT? Vote! Whoops — I forgot to set a time limit on the poll! I'll post the answer in a couple of days. Last edited by pdurrant; 08-03-2010 at 05:31 AM.
08-05-2010, 05:54 PM   #2
pdurrant
The Grand Mouse 高貴的老鼠

Posts: 46,847
Karma: 159995825
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Norfolk, England
Device: Kindle Voyage
Quote:
 Originally Posted by pdurrant Bearing in mind the previous puzzle, are you more likely to get THH or THT?
Spoiler:
Nice to see no-one was fooled by my reference to the previous puzzle, at least as I write this. Well done, everyone!

The answer is, of course, that they are equally likely.

However, if I was to ask, "if you start tossing coins, which sequence is more likely to appear first, THH or THT?", the answer is NOT that they are equally likely to appear, as was shown in the previous puzzle.

An interesting look at probability, I think. Just because combinations of results are equally likely to occur in a set of events that's of the same length as the number of results, that doesn't mean they're equally to occur in a long sequence of events.

Last edited by pdurrant; 08-05-2010 at 06:43 PM.

 08-06-2010, 08:21 AM #3 Druid_Elf Zealot   Posts: 109 Karma: 612 Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: belgium Device: none So do we get a treat for getting it right ?
08-06-2010, 03:59 PM   #4
pdurrant
The Grand Mouse 高貴的老鼠

Posts: 46,847
Karma: 159995825
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Norfolk, England
Device: Kindle Voyage
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Druid_Elf So do we get a treat for getting it right ?