Will 2009 be the Year of the E-book?

[DaleDe]

Please see the article at: http://www.epapercentral.com/will-20...the-e-book.htm

It makes some good points and gives some interesting facts. I believe the technology advances such as flexible screens for more ruggedness and more publishers seeing the light will foster more eBook Readers which the author believes is the impetus behind the acceptance of eBooks themselves.

The site also has good information on e-paper technologies.

Dale

[dmaul1114]

They'll keep taking off and doing better and better, but it's not going to be year of the ebook until prices on readers come down a good bit.

Still too expensive to sell to many people outside of avid readers who like gadgets.

[DixieGal]

Because of goofing off at MR so much, and a few people I know now having ebook readers, I have a false sense of riding a wave that everyone is catching. However, when I look around me with my eyes wide open, those few people and me are the only ones I see using ebook readers.

I think the Amazon debacle will be a setback. Bad decisions made the tech world's news, while good decisions from Fictionwise, Sony, et al, go unreported due to there being little to warrant an outcry.

In my not-so-humble-but-worthless-anyway opinion, I think 2011 or 2012 is a more reasonable estimate, at the very soonest. In the US, Americans for the most part are quick to adopt new technology. Unfortunately, they are not big reading fans, at least in my part of the country.

Now sell 'em an iTouch that they can watch college football on, and you'll be rich.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by DixieGal

Now sell 'em an iTouch that they can watch college football on, and you'll be rich.

Yeah the key for ebooks really taking off will be multi function devices with good reader functions. Will take something with a bigger screen that's easier on the eyes and has longer batter life when using the screen than the iPhone/iTouch though.

Avid readers just aren't a huge market compared to people into music, movies, games etc. these days. But get ebooks selling on a multifunction device that these people have and you'll see ebooks sales taking off when you have casual readers buying them on their multifunction device. Vs. now just having avid readers buying expensive devices like the Kindle.

Such devices probably won't be as good as dedicated readers for avid readers (likely won't have e-ink screens--at least not in the near future--since those screens can't do video etc.), but they'll be fine for the people just reading a couple books a year.

[S.Canton]

I think ebook reader technology is going to take a while to really start making a dent in paper book market share. The technology still needs to mature a bit, and costs need to go, both on hardware and on the software (ebooks themselves). It's going to happen though, it's the logical progression.

[JSWolf]

Originally Posted by S.Canton

I think ebook reader technology is going to take a while to really start making a dent in paper book market share. The technology still needs to mature a bit, and costs need to go, both on hardware and on the software (ebooks themselves). It's going to happen though, it's the logical progression.

The problem (IMHO) is eBooks themselves. We have this Tower of eBable that a lot of people just don't want anything to do with. You want to purchase a specific eBook and you have a Kindle and Amazon doesn't have it yet it's available over at CyberRead in Mobipocket, too bad. If you have a Sony and want to get a book that's over at ereader.com, too bad.

There there is the issue of interoperability. If I want a Sony and my wife wanted a Kindle, we would have to purchase multiple copies of the same eBook if we even could.

This is all without stripping DRM/converting which I can do and would do. But for the average person, this is a real issue. And it's an issue that needs to get solved before eBooks can become mainstream. All those articles saying that Amazon is mainstreaming eBooks is hogwash. Nobody is mainstreaming anything to do with eBooks. Too many formats, too much DRM, interoperability issues and not all eBooks are available in all formats. So until this mess gets cleaned up, the hardware really isn't an issue. The hardware won't be an issue until the eBook mess is no longer a mess. And the solution is DRM free ePub.

[dmaul1114]

Yep, all those complexities need to go away.

But price is the main thing. At $300 plus few people outside of very Avid readers are going to even look into them to be aware of all the complexities to possibly be dissuaded from taking the plunge because of them.

But it is a mess. I'm tech savy and I have little interest in bothering with anything other than the Kindle store and feedbooks. Plenty to read there that's easy to get directly on the Kindle without hassling with other DRM, converting file types etc.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

I think a lot will happen in 2009, but for a real "breakthrough," we need two things: A drastic price cut in readers and most e-books; and more compelling hardware/features that convince more of the public to buy readers or use smartphones, PDAs, etc for reading. The former could happen in 2009, but the latter will take longer, on the order of a few more years, to happen. Even if some manufacturer is working on "the" device right now, I wouldn't expect it to hit the streets until 2010 at the earliest, and then marketing has to get the word out.

Bottom line, I think 2009 is too early to be the e-books' "year," unless e-book prices drop so significantly that the world starts using whatever they already have to read e-books, letting the dedicated devices "catch up" to the market.

[JSWolf]

Oh yes, I did leave out the pricing issues. People are not going to want eBooks at more then the paperback prices.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Of course, I still have a suspicion that the year of the e-book will be the year we get an affordable color letter/A4-sized screen reader. A color device will create a market for e-periodicals (popular magazines and color newspapers) that, when it is successful, will pull e-books along with it.

[JSWolf]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

Yep, all those complexities need to go away.

But price is the main thing. At $300 plus few people outside of very Avid readers are going to even look into them to be aware of all the complexities to possibly be dissuaded from taking the plunge because of them.

But it is a mess. I'm tech savy and I have little interest in bothering with anything other than the Kindle store and feedbooks. Plenty to read there that's easy to get directly on the Kindle without hassling with other DRM, converting file types etc.

But unless the Tower of eBable is cleared up, it's not going to matter how much the hardware is. We need the industry to standardize on ePub and we need it done now. We need them to realize that this mess of multiple formats is going to just drive people away. DRM would not be such an issue if we had one standard format.

if I wanted a reader from brand X because they just brought out a device with a 9.7" screen and my wife wanted to keep her Sony, then we'd be able to read the same eBooks. But as it stands, that may not be possible. So it kind of forces the first person in a household who purchases a reader to dictate what everyone else (who wants a reader) gets. So if eBooks came out in ePub and all readers supported ePub, then it would be a no-brainer.

[JSWolf]

Originally Posted by Steve Jordan

Of course, I still have a suspicion that the year of the e-book will be the year we get an affordable color letter/A4-sized screen reader. A color device will create a market for e-periodicals (popular magazines and color newspapers) that, when it is successful, will pull e-books along with it.

I don't think so. Not until the Tower of eBable is sorted and we have ONE format and the eBooks are made available in ePub.

[KindleDude]

I think after gadget geeks, the next big market will be real serious readers, folks who can see the value of being able to carry hundreds of books in a compact device. In fact (admittedly this is only anecdotal) those are the types who most often ask me about the Kindle when I'm out in public with it. This is still a minority.

For e-paper to get to the masses, the kinds of things people have mentioned here have to happen, especially price cuts and some sort of assurance (such as interoperability on all platforms) that the books they most likely would want will be available. I think price cuts will be inevitable as research costs are paid off and the basic technology becomes a mass produced commodity.

The real problem is going to be lack of interoperability and gaps in any one company's selection. It's hard to predict how, when, or even if that will be solved.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by KindleDude

I think after gadget geeks, the next big market will be real serious readers, folks who can see the value of being able to carry hundreds of books in a compact device.

Yep.

Currently ebooks are selling to serious readers who are into gadgets.

Prices come down, and better readers come out, then you'll see more more and more serious readers get on board. A unified format would help a great deal expanding the market to avid readers as others have pointed out.

Then the final expansion is to casual readers who can get ebooks on their phones, pdas, and other gadgets going forward.

[Sonist]

Originally Posted by JSWolf

The problem (IMHO) is eBooks themselves. We have this Tower of eBable that a lot of people just don't want anything to do with. ... Too many formats, too much DRM, interoperability issues and not all eBooks are available in all formats.....

Hear, hear.