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Old 04-14-2005, 11:48 AM   #1
Bob Russell
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History and Future of the Palm Pilot Handheld

It's natural to become sentimental when the future is uncertain. That's no less true for those with an interest in PDAs. So in honor of this time of transition, why not take a glimpse of Palm history by checking out this "official" article at http://www.palmone.com/us/products/palmpilot/.

Or, even better, read the book "Piloting Palm" by Jeff Hawkins. You can see a nice review by Mike Cane at Palminfocenter. It's also available as an e-book from eReader.com, and they are hosting an excerpt.

But we're interested in more than just the history! Most of us want to understand the future. PalmOne and PalmSource are at this very time, in a season of transition that may be greater than anything yet seen. We've reached a crisis point.

There's a word for crisis in the Chinese language that is made up of a combination of two symbols. One means "danger" and the other means "opportunity". That's exactly what we're seeing with Palm right now. Everyone can see the danger, but do we give as much attention to the opportunity? Much of the vision is surely held quietly and secretly by the leadership at PalmOne and PalmSource, but there is also a lot of publicly available information and speculation that is worth a look.

For example, PalmOne has now charted a course towards smartphones as a large part of their business. And according to rumor, they have more up their sleeves than just putting phones and PDAs together. They are moving towards the LifeDrive concept with persistent 4gig storage and the hope of even better things to come. That rumor is backed up by the reality of the new memory architecture of both the T5 and Treo 650. It may just open the door for future devices with very large amounts of storage that could revolutionize the devices, and their use. Imagine carrying around your video and audio collections, your library, and all your relevant photos and documents in a book or wallet-sized form factor without having to be a geek to manage it all.

Add wireless communication, bright clear e-paper displays, and new generations of applications and you may have a revolution on your hands that can put a PDA-like computing device back in vogue. Specialty devices may be the ones relegated to niche markets rather than the PDA! In fact, due to the simplicity of interface, you might even find the PDA eventually doing tablet PC better than a tablet PC can! This could certainly cause them to gain much more widespread appeal for the general public and bring a revival to the market.

PalmSource has come out with the Cobalt OS ("Palm OS6"), which has been ready for manufacturers for quite a while. Yet despite new versions being released, we have not seen it in the marketplace on a device. There are rumors of incompatibility and performance issues, as well as the expected bugs that come with any large new software venture. And there are even mumorings from devoted Palm fans that maybe it's never going to see the light of day.

But there is also great hope, because PalmSource also has dropped clues of its new direction. A PalmOS Cobalt with a Linux core which promises more compatibility and community support as well as more business acceptance. It won't look like Linux. It will still run just like Cobalt. But Linux supporters and coders are surely salivating at the possibilities of full-fledged Linux running along side PalmOS. And they have acquired a company that makes smartphones based on Linux, which gets them Linux expertise and a fast tie to the smartphone technology and market. Revenues are down, so maybe they'll just sell their own smartphone software in China and kickstart the market.

This must be coming from a blind Palm fanatic, you say. Well, yes I like Palm and want them to succeed. But I'm more of a mobile computing fanatic than a Palm fanatic. I appreciate them and may jump back on board one day, but Microsoft PPC has won my heart for now.

This Palm transition period is turning out to be hard not just for Palm, but for us consumers who keep hoping the next PalmOS killer devices are just around the corner. We've been waiting a long time! All the while, PPC devices are getting better and better. Windows Mobile devices keep me happy and have a bright future. But don't count out Palm.. they may still yet turn this crisis into a wonderful future!
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Old 04-14-2005, 12:19 PM   #2
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I really think the 'ipod' market is what the PDA could cannibalize on. With a large drive built-in, it could give ipod a run for it's money. Sure, Apple's ipod Clickwheel is legendary for ease of use

But picture this, using Graffitti or any text input, you could scrawl letter R and the list would just jump to Robert Plant, REO Speedwagon, R.E.M. and the rest of the R artists. That would easily beat the clickwheel.

Downside, is you probably need a touch screen or case...
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Old 04-14-2005, 02:56 PM   #3
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I couldn't have said it better, Bob. Great read!

I think we should consider the transition to "LifeDrive" and whatever comes afterward as a sign that the area of handhelds is not over yet and that thanks to emerging technologies such as electronic paper a bright future lies ahead of us!
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Old 04-15-2005, 08:34 AM   #4
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Indeed a good discussion. I for one, is looking for the day I can do with out this 5kg knapsack I carry daily to work and where ever I travel. Content: a T40, charger, cables, Logitech cordless mouse (trackpoint and touch pad, both standard on the T40, can't really replace a good mouse), a heavy gauge Kensington security chain (oh yeah, you need it when you go out for lunch), thumbdrive (diskette drive? on a laptop these days?), USB charger for my cell phone, Palm travelling sync cable, and other small gadget you regret leaving at home.

If I can function as effective with this future PDA you mentioned say, in the next 3 years or so, perhaps it's a good idea to take snapshot of my knapsack and its content now. You know, the good old "Before" and "After" testament
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