Author Earnings Report for Sept 2015

[fjtorres]

As expected, the new Author Earnings report sheds light on the decline on BPH revenues:

http://authorearnings.com/report/sep...rnings-report/

AAP Reports Own Shrinking Market Share, Media Mistakes It for Flat US Ebook Market

• In the 18 months between February 2014 and September 2015, the Association of American Publishers (AAP), whose 1200 members include the “Big Five”: Penguin Random House, HarperCollins, Simon & Schuster, Macmillan, and Hachette — have seen their collective share of the US ebook market collapse:
  
• from 45% of all Kindle books sold down to 32%
  
• from 64% of Kindle publisher gross $ revenue down to 50%
  
• from 48% of all Kindle author net $ earnings down to 32%
  
• The AAP releases monthly StatShot reports on the total dollar sales of their 1200 participating publishers, of which the “Big Five” collectively account for roughly 80%.
  
• So far in 2015, the AAP’s reports have charted a progressive decline in both ebook sales and overall revenue for the AAP’s member publishers.
  
• During that same period in 2015, Amazon’s overall ebook sales have continued to grow in both unit and dollar terms, fueled by a strong shift in consumer ebook purchasing behavior away from traditionally-published ebooks and toward indie-published- and Amazon-imprint-published ebooks.
  
• These “non-traditionally-published” books now make up nearly 60% of all Kindle ebooks purchased in the US, and take in 40% of all consumer dollars spent on those ebooks.
  
• The AAP is still reporting on May 2015 right now; they haven’t seen the latest 5% drop in their collective market share, measured by Author Earnings in early September 2015 (after Penguin Random House’s return to agency pricing).

Much more at the source.
With pretty pictures, too.

[pwalker8]

So what is there source of information given that many publishers don't publish actual sales figures?

[Cinisajoy]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

So what is there source of information given that many publishers don't publish actual sales figures?

If this is data guy, they have a program that looks at all ebook sales on Amazon.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by Cinisajoy

If this is data guy, they have a program that looks at all ebook sales on Amazon.

It is.
And they benchmark their spider data against confidential data from other sources.

They've been doing this for two years now and their methodology has been challenged, studied, and validated. Their quarterly reports include both the raw data and detailed descriptions of their methology. Knowledgeable people have analyzed their work and nobody has raised a valid challenge that withstood scrutiny.
Even tradpub pundits that tried to deprecate the reports early on have since come to grudgingly accept that the numbers reflect reality. All it takes is a reading of the full reports and at least a basic familiarity with statistics and economics.

If anything, DataGuy's reports are conservative and overstate the tradpub numbers.
(To appreciate how far they go, consider they sorted all the titles in the samples, going back to their first report, by publisher and matched them to the list of publishers reporting to the AAP and then compared their numbers to the numbers reported by the AAP.)

One by one, we went through through the thousands of publishers and publishing imprints appearing in each of our seven quarterly AE datasets. We looked up each book’s publisher against the list of 1200 AAP-reporting participants. To make sure we got it right, we received off-the-record help from some of the savviest experts reporting on the traditional side of the industry. By the time we were finished, every book in each AE dataset, and all of its sales, had been tagged as either AAP-reported . . . or not.

So now, finally, Author Earnings could do a true apples-to-apples comparison with the AAP’s numbers.

If anybody has better numbers, they're not publishing them.
(Amazon does but they're not talking.)

[Phogg]

During that same period in 2015, Amazon’s overall ebook sales have continued to grow in both unit and dollar terms, fueled by a strong shift in consumer ebook purchasing behavior away from traditionally-published ebooks and toward indie-published- and Amazon-imprint-published ebooks.

Hooray for indie ebook evangelism.
Our proselytes are in turn bringing new consumers into the fold.
Let the time of the gate keepers be at an end.

[Cinisajoy]

I thought it looked familiar. I remember when they started.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by Phogg

Let the time of the gate keepers be at an end.

Let each story find its natural audience, let readers be the only ones with the power of "No."

[pwalker8]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

It is.
And they benchmark their spider data against confidential data from other sources.

They've been doing this for two years now and their methodology has been challenged, studied, and validated. Their quarterly reports include both the raw data and detailed descriptions of their methology. Knowledgeable people have analyzed their work and nobody has raised a valid challenge that withstood scrutiny.
Even tradpub pundits that tried to deprecate the reports early on have since come to grudgingly accept that the numbers reflect reality. All it takes is a reading of the full reports and at least a basic familiarity with statistics and economics.

If anything, DataGuy's reports are conservative and overstate the tradpub numbers.
(To appreciate how far they go, consider they sorted all the titles in the samples, going back to their first report, by publisher and matched them to the list of publishers reporting to the AAP and then compared their numbers to the numbers reported by the AAP.)


If anybody has better numbers, they're not publishing them.
(Amazon does but they're not talking.)

My point is that actual sales figures are proprietary and not shared with the public, so no matter how "validated" the data is, it's simply estimates that are validated against estimates. I'm sure that Amazon knows how many ebooks they sale, though that number is not public, just as I'm sure each publisher and each author knows how many ebooks the various stores report as sold. But as you say, they aren't talking. When an author who actually gets the real data says that the estimates are way off, that makes me skeptical of the estimate.

[kennyc]

So schlock wins?

[Cinisajoy]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

My point is that actual sales figures are proprietary and not shared with the public, so no matter how "validated" the data is, it's simply estimates that are validated against estimates. I'm sure that Amazon knows how many ebooks they sale, though that number is not public, just as I'm sure each publisher and each author knows how many ebooks the various stores report as sold. But as you say, they aren't talking. When an author who actually gets the real data says that the estimates are way off, that makes me skeptical of the estimate.

Proof of author that has stated Data Guy's spiders are wrong.
You always make claims but never back them up.
PS: Data's numbers are rather accurate.

[kennyc]

Originally Posted by Cinisajoy

Proof of author that has stated Data Guy's spiders are wrong.
You always make claims but never back them up.
PS: Data's numbers are rather accurate.

[frahse]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

My point is that actual sales figures are proprietary and not shared with the public, so no matter how "validated" the data is, it's simply estimates that are validated against estimates. I'm sure that Amazon knows how many ebooks they sale, though that number is not public, just as I'm sure each publisher and each author knows how many ebooks the various stores report as sold. But as you say, they aren't talking. When an author who actually gets the real data says that the estimates are way off, that makes me skeptical of the estimate.

Amazon is giving me small but reasonable numbers and I am by nature incredulous and suspicious. (Goes back to a compulsory stint in Military intelligence after graduation. My diploma said I was an Engineer but they said I understood analysis, the Delphi method, statistics and computers and gave me a reporting date.)

Anyway, I am now mostly retired from Engineering and all the attendant travel and am getting back to writing 50% of the time.

I hope to see good increases in my numbers at Amazon.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by Cinisajoy

Data's numbers are rather accurate.

Yes they are.
Because he has a network of contributing authors who know what *their* sales numbers are.
(Backed up by cold cash.)

But that's how it goes: deniers gotta deny, no matter how much handwaving they need to conjure to make up for lack of facts.

[Cinisajoy]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

Yes they are.
Because he has a network of contributing authors who know what *their* sales numbers are.
(Backed up by cold cash.)

But that's how it goes: deniers gotta deny, no matter how much handwaving they need to conjure to make up for lack of facts.

Oh I know about the deniers but it is so much fun watching the hole digger.

[Fbone]

I looked at his data. The top 5 books for Sept 5th were preorders from indie authors at $5.99. These probably were titles offered first for free to Prime subscribers as part of their Kindle First or similar promotion.

I'd also like to know why he still believes the day's bestseller sells 7,000 copies. It's been at this level for some time. Btw, here's how DG breaks down the rest of the top 10 all estimates, of course. I really wish he could score the actual figures.

7,000
6,250
5,500
4,750
4,000
3,933
3,866
3,800
3,733
3,666