Will E-Readers be gone by 2020?

afa · 10-20-2011, 07:07 AM

Just saw an article on Yahoo! (though it's sourced from something called ManStreet) that gives a list of current tech products that they feel will be gone and dusted by the end of the decade. One of the five items listed is -- yes, you guessed it -- the dedicated e-reader.

Quote:

“It could be that by 2020 you can still buy a super cheap e-reader for $20, but by and large, the volume of sales will be so close to zero as to be indistinguishable, like CD players are now,” he says.

I'm guessing a fair few of my fellow MobileReaders will take umbrage with that...

Here's the article: http://shopping.yahoo.com/articles/y...around-in-2020

afa · 10-20-2011, 07:16 AM

I'm also not sure about recordable CDs/DVDs:

Quote:

“All a CD is is a medium for distribution of content … and within 10 years, you won’t need a physical transport medium,” Bajarin says.

True enough to an extent, I suppose, but that's not all that discs do. They can also serve as a method of backup, a throwing weapon for use in house burglaries, and a Frisbee for when you're bored.

And what about music? Unless he is also suggesting that car stereos will have progressed to the point where they, too, can access the cloud, I might still need my recorded music on a disc. "iPod connectivity!" I hear you say. Sure, many stereos have that; but I prefer the cleaner look and feel of being able to insert discs inside my stereo, as opposed to having wires snaking about my car for the auxiliary input. Or maybe they'll start including dock connectors in the centre glove box? Cool idea, but that would then require all manufacturers of portable music players to use the same type of connector.

Quote:

Rather than buy a separate console, Enderle expects that consumers will instead buy smart televisions with a gaming system built into it, not to mention tablets and smartphones that will continue to ramp up their gaming options.

TVs with high-end console gaming built-in? I really, really doubt that. I haven't really heard of anyone making a major effort into even trying for that right now. I'm supposed to believe it will not only be a reality, but in fact will be popular enough to replace dedicated consoles... all in a little over 8 years? Umm... No. Besides, if Sony want to make a PlayStation TV, it will be just that: a Sony PSTV (gotta admit, has a nice ring to it). So are we assuming that all customers will stick to buying Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo TVs? Or that all TV manufacturers will invest the time, effort and money on building their own console technology? I don't see either happening.

And "tablets and smartphones that will continue to ramp up their gaming options."? The word 'continue' implies that they have been doing that currently. I don't know how many 'gamers' would agree with that. I, for one, don't want to play Bird Shit or Boring Ninja for the rest of my life.

JD Gumby · 10-20-2011, 08:39 AM

Eh. Dedicated e-readers'll stick around as a major component of the e-reading market until new screen technology comes along that tablets can use that won't hurt the eyes when reading text for a long time.

EowynCarter · 10-20-2011, 08:46 AM

It's might be harder to have a tablet (heavier and larger), act as an e-reader than having a smartphone with a good music app replace an mp3 player.

Technology evolve, conting capacity in Giga would have been unthinkable not so long ago, far less Tera.

kcmay · 10-20-2011, 08:46 AM

Yeah, when someone comes up with color eink technology for tablets, then they can have my ereader. Until then, they'd have to pry it out of my cold, dead hands.

Apache · 10-20-2011, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EowynCarter

It's might be harder to have a tablet (heavier and larger), act as an e-reader than having a smartphone with a good music app replace an mp3 player.

Technology evolve, conting capacity in Giga would have been unthinkable not so long ago, far less Tera.

I don't like the size of most tablets. 7" ereaders are perfect since they are about the same size as a hard back book. I think they will still be around but they will just call them tablets since they will be more powerful and able to do more than be just a book. Of course that sounds a lot like a Nook Color.

Apache

HomeInMyShoes · 10-20-2011, 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by afa

I'm also not sure about recordable CDs/DVDs:

True enough to an extent, I suppose, but that's not all that discs do. They can also serve as a method of backup, a throwing weapon for use in house burglaries, and a Frisbee for when you're bored.

You forgot coaster and as an exterior siding material.

Steven Lyle Jordan · 10-20-2011, 09:02 AM

I think they're probably right: Today's dedicated readers will probably have more and more functions added to them, until they are just another tablet, and not "dedicated" to any one function at all. As Apache pointed out, look at the Nook Color: With the B&N app store of a few crap-hundred things to add to your device, you can call it a dedicated device... yet it really isn't.

Maybe their labels will be replaced with something more apropos... "intended" devices instead of "dedicated"... and the prophecy will be fulfilled.

Oh, about car radios: Ever since I saw a radio with an SD card slot, it occurred to me that I might never put a CD into a car radio again: One SD card will hold my entire playlist, and when added to a service like Sirius-XM, my road life will be CD-free.

CommonReader · 10-20-2011, 09:03 AM

Nothing gets obsolete more quickly than prediction about what technologies we are going to use in the future.

5thWiggle · 10-20-2011, 09:30 AM

"Experts" also claimed we'd have flying cars by now.

I demand that these experts just stop "predicting" (ie: guessing) things.
All it does is either put people on the defensive ("they can't take away my thingambob!") or get their hopes up ("No more traffic jams with personal jetpacks!") .

Sniff..... iwantmyflyingcar....youpromised...... sniff

TimW · 10-20-2011, 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 5thWiggle

"Experts" also claimed we'd have flying cars by now.

I demand that these experts just stop "predicting" (ie: guessing) things.
All it does is either put people on the defensive ("they can't take away my thingambob!") or get their hopes up ("No more traffic jams with personal jetpacks!") .

Sniff..... iwantmyflyingcar....youpromised...... sniff

If there were flying cars, some drunken hillbilly would just crash theirs into a cellphone tower.

OneandonlyDoc · 10-20-2011, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TimW

If there were flying cars, some drunken hillbilly would just crash theirs into a cellphone tower.

Or worse.

DiapDealer · 10-20-2011, 09:39 AM

Quote:

“It could be that by 2020 you can still buy a super cheap e-reader for $20, but by and large, the volume of sales will be so close to zero as to be indistinguishable, like CD players are now,” he says.

A $20 cheapo, dedicated eReader with an eInk (possibly color by then?) screen? As long as that comes to pass... bring on the future, I say. I'll take a dozen, please.

elemenoP · 10-20-2011, 09:44 AM

Yes, I think dedicated ereaders will be gone by 2020. I predict some kind of eink/LCD hybrid where the backlight can be turned on or off depending on the lighting conditions around you. If a tablet was as easy on the eyes as today's ereader, and just as cheap, and came in a variety of sizes, why would you buy an ereader?

Someone bump this thread in 2020 please.

eP

abookreader · 10-20-2011, 09:53 AM

I predict that Amazon will eventually have some sort of free device is you plug into their content delivery. I think eReaders will morph into some sort of multi-function device with technology other than eInk or LCD.

But no, it won't be the same in 2020 as it is now. What I fear most is the decline of the traditional book for all this "enhanced edition" crap - I mean stuff. It's getting hard enough to log onto the internet and read the news. It seems like every third article I try to read these days ends up being some video report.

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10-20-2011, 08:39 AM	#3
JD Gumby Cynical Old Curmudgeon Posts: 1,085 Karma: 8495696 Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Halifax, Canada Device: Kobo Mini, Kobo Arc, HTC Desire C	Eh. Dedicated e-readers'll stick around as a major component of the e-reading market until new screen technology comes along that tablets can use that won't hurt the eyes when reading text for a long time.

10-20-2011, 08:46 AM	#4
EowynCarter Wizard Posts: 4,337 Karma: 4000000 Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: Paris Device: Cybooks; Sony PRS-T1	It's might be harder to have a tablet (heavier and larger), act as an e-reader than having a smartphone with a good music app replace an mp3 player. Technology evolve, conting capacity in Giga would have been unthinkable not so long ago, far less Tera.

10-20-2011, 08:46 AM	#5
kcmay Addict Posts: 363 Karma: 500001 Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: Georgia, USA Device: Kindle2	Yeah, when someone comes up with color eink technology for tablets, then they can have my ereader. Until then, they'd have to pry it out of my cold, dead hands.

10-20-2011, 09:02 AM	#8
Steven Lyle Jordan Grand Sorcerer Posts: 8,478 Karma: 5171130 Join Date: Jan 2006 Device: none	I think they're probably right: Today's dedicated readers will probably have more and more functions added to them, until they are just another tablet, and not "dedicated" to any one function at all. As Apache pointed out, look at the Nook Color: With the B&N app store of a few crap-hundred things to add to your device, you can call it a dedicated device... yet it really isn't. Maybe their labels will be replaced with something more apropos... "intended" devices instead of "dedicated"... and the prophecy will be fulfilled. Oh, about car radios: Ever since I saw a radio with an SD card slot, it occurred to me that I might never put a CD into a car radio again: One SD card will hold my entire playlist, and when added to a service like Sirius-XM, my road life will be CD-free.

10-20-2011, 09:03 AM	#9
CommonReader Fanatic Posts: 528 Karma: 2530000 Join Date: Dec 2010 Device: Sony PRS-T3, PRS-650, Vaio Tap 11, iPad Mini	Nothing gets obsolete more quickly than prediction about what technologies we are going to use in the future.

10-20-2011, 09:30 AM	#10
5thWiggle Benevolent Evil Lord Posts: 1,704 Karma: 48339466 Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: Evil Canada (We all have goatees!) Device: Galaxy Note 8.0, Galaxy Note, iPad Mini, PocketEdge(retired)	"Experts" also claimed we'd have flying cars by now. I demand that these experts just stop "predicting" (ie: guessing) things. All it does is either put people on the defensive ("they can't take away my thingambob!") or get their hopes up ("No more traffic jams with personal jetpacks!") . Sniff..... iwantmyflyingcar....youpromised...... sniff

10-20-2011, 09:44 AM	#14
elemenoP Wizard Posts: 1,717 Karma: 3790058 Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: NYC Device: Kindle Paperwhite, Sony 650	Yes, I think dedicated ereaders will be gone by 2020. I predict some kind of eink/LCD hybrid where the backlight can be turned on or off depending on the lighting conditions around you. If a tablet was as easy on the eyes as today's ereader, and just as cheap, and came in a variety of sizes, why would you buy an ereader? Someone bump this thread in 2020 please. eP

10-20-2011, 09:53 AM	#15
abookreader Wizard Posts: 1,516 Karma: 2567610 Join Date: Oct 2009 Device: Kindles - Keyboard, Fire, 2-US, iPhone, iPAD	I predict that Amazon will eventually have some sort of free device is you plug into their content delivery. I think eReaders will morph into some sort of multi-function device with technology other than eInk or LCD. But no, it won't be the same in 2020 as it is now. What I fear most is the decline of the traditional book for all this "enhanced edition" crap - I mean stuff. It's getting hard enough to log onto the internet and read the news. It seems like every third article I try to read these days ends up being some video report.

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