Shazkin:Ebooks may be eighty per cent of the book market in a few years

[stonetools]

Intersting article on the Ebook market by Shatzkin, in which he tries to sum up what we know about the Ebook market. He makes this prediction:

We know that rate of growth is mathematically prevented from continuing for even three more years (because it would put ebooks at 160% of publishers’ revenues if it did!)

We know from announcements about new devices and a recent Harris poll predicting increased device purchasing that there are no expectations for a slowdown in ebook adoption anytime soon.

We don’t know if we’re going to find a barrier of resistance, or perhaps we should call it the barrier of “paper-insistence”, at some sales level over the next two years (at the end of which ebooks would be 80% of publishers’ revenues at the growth rates we’ve seen over the past four years).

LINK

He walks it back in the comments to 80% for narrative books. Is even that a stretch?

[Phogg]

About ten years ago, the manufacturing costs for some flat screen display technologiesdropped below the manufacturing costs for the cheapest cathode ray tubes.

Being the brave risk taking soul that I am, I went out on a limb and predicted that CRT screens would largely disappear.

[frostschutz]

Only 80%?

[kjk]

I have little doubt they will be 80% of Amazon's book revenues.

[elcreative]

Not non-fiction... why can't commentators (or as as previously been quoted, common taters) do their job properly... 80% of fiction? Maybe... 80% of non-fiction... no chance yet... hence 80% of all books? Get real...

[Ron.]

80% of my books are ebooks right now, he was way off...

[stonetools]

Originally Posted by elcreative

Not non-fiction... why can't commentators (or as as previously been quoted, common taters) do their job properly... 80% of fiction? Maybe... 80% of non-fiction... no chance yet... hence 80% of all books? Get real...

Well, he did walk back to coments from 80% of all books to 80% straight "narrative text" , by which he means (I think) novels and non-fiction. Here's his comment:

I think an 80% ebook world for straight narrative text is a question of "exactly when", not "whether". The limitation is the distribution of devices, a subject I should know more about than I do. But people examining the potential for ebook sales in the poorest parts of the world think people will be able to read books on any cell phone, so that it is truly diminishing limitation. So, 3 years in the US? Can't imagine longer than 5 years here, I wouldn't imagine.

What's the harder question is "what happens to books that require illustrations"? There is a large number of potential answers, and the only thing I'm pretty sure of is that it will be a number of things, not one thing, providing the answer. Some of them will feel like books; some will feel like apps; some will feel like web sites; and some will feel like things we haven't felt yet.

Still, that 80% looks high, even for 5 years from now.

[RainingLemur]

Originally Posted by elcreative

Not non-fiction... why can't commentators (or as as previously been quoted, common taters) do their job properly... 80% of fiction? Maybe... 80% of non-fiction... no chance yet... hence 80% of all books? Get real...

What's taters, precious?

But, yeah, I don't see the 80% coming any time soon.

[anamardoll]

Not all non-fiction has pictures. Many biographical, scientific, historical, and social studies written for broad public consumption (i.e., not college students) do NOT have pictures.

I have 1491 by Mann in eBook form. Several Barbara Ehrenreich eBooks. The Herman history and sex study books. James Randi and Martin Gardner's skeptic / science eBooks that are available. Quite a few books on religions... etc. These are all non-fiction.

I dunno if 80% is reasonable. (And don't care.) But non-fiction as a whole is not all pictures.

[Andrew H.]

Originally Posted by RainingLemur

What's taters, precious?

But, yeah, I don't see the 80% coming any time soon.

No do I. Despite the prevalence of mp3s, for example, 65% of music is still bought on CDs.

[elcreative]

Originally Posted by anamardoll

Not all non-fiction has pictures. Many biographical, scientific, historical, and social studies written for broad public consumption (i.e., not college students) do NOT have pictures.

I have 1491 by Mann in eBook form. Several Barbara Ehrenreich eBooks. The Herman history and sex study books. James Randi and Martin Gardner's skeptic / science eBooks that are available. Quite a few books on religions... etc. These are all non-fiction.

I dunno if 80% is reasonable. (And don't care.) But non-fiction as a whole is not all pictures.

Never said it was, just that 80% going e was pi in the sky so just a bit soon to be circling the wagons for the total demise of paper... Also a lot of non-fiction may not have pictures but it does rely on specific formatting for tables, lists, formulae and other things which still don't work well on most eReaders although not to bad as pdfs on a 10" tablet...

[xg4bx]

maybe 30-40% at most. according to experts blu-ray was supposed to have demolished dvd by now. its not happening.

[Phogg]

Originally Posted by xg4bx

maybe 30-40% at most. according to experts blu-ray was supposed to have demolished dvd by now. its not happening.

A lot of pundits were skeptical about blu-ray from the beginning.

1. It is.still a mechanical media with all the heat generation and component failure that entails.

2. The SDXC flashcard standard goes up to a 2Tb capacity. Blu-ray got leapfrogged by a smaller more ubiquitous media.

3. A lot of people prefer the immediacy of purchacing a download. You can save a download to a card or thumbdrive as easily as.to a bulky Blu-ray disk.

4. For those.who use small viewing screens, the higher definition is not only wasted....it makes file conversions take even longer.

[stonetools]

Originally Posted by Phogg

A lot of pundits were skeptical about blu-ray from the beginning.

1. It is.still a mechanical media with all the heat generation and component failure that entails.

2. The SDXC flashcard standard goes up to a 2Tb capacity. Blu-ray got leapfrogged by a smaller more ubiquitous media.

3. A lot of people prefer the immediacy of purchacing a download. You can save a download to a card or thumbdrive as easily as.to a bulky Blu-ray disk.

4. For those.who use small viewing screens, the higher definition is not only wasted....it makes file conversions take even longer.

From Steve-O:

Straight from El Jobso's mouth at today's notebook keynote: "Blu-ray is just a bag of hurt. It's great to watch the movies, but the licensing of the tech is so complex, we're waiting till things settle down and Blu-ray takes off in the marketplace."

LINK

[stonetools]

Someone said that people often overestimate what will happen in 5 years and underestimate what will happen in 20.
I think that applies here. We may not be at 80% in 5 years but we'll likely be at 95% in 20.
Then again, who foresaw the rapid demise of first record, then video rental stores? Those happened relatively quickly.
Indeed, who foresaw Borders' bankruptcy?