"Feedback loops in eBook Success"

JRM34857 · 11-04-2010, 08:10 AM

An interesting article on the "LibraryThing" Website......

http://www.librarything.com/blogs/th...ebook-success/

boxcorner · 12-05-2010, 07:53 AM

Thanks for the link.

pwalker8 · 12-05-2010, 09:35 AM

Interesting. A lot of good points. If ebook stores can ever figure out how to make browsing for ebooks online as satisfying an experience as browsing at a book store, then it will take off a lot faster. In theory it should be, with the various recommendation mechanisms out there and the theoretical ability to filter search results (no, I don't want to see self published books or PD books, for example).

sourcejedi · 12-05-2010, 10:23 AM

Probably best summarised as "If ebook sales make up 20% of the market, that might not sound like much, but something like a 20% fall in pbook sales could easily force a conventional book shop to close, so it's not a stable situation".

As for the rest, I suspect it takes much more than 20% to break economies-of-scale in printing. The point about making short stories economic again is a really good suggestion, but I'm not convinced by "enhanced ebooks". I don't see how "social reading" gives an advantage to ebooks over pbooks. And you can't argue for "a device that has everything you’ve read since high-school" without explicitly mentioning DRM.

OTOH, there is one more feedback loop of sorts. The more ebooks are sold, the more resources will be devoted to making e-reader technology better and cheaper. Without that, you still have the "£100 for a reader? That's 10-20 books I could be reading!" equation. That's the barrier the sort of trends mentioned in the article have to overcome, unless you assume a majority with an irrational *attraction* to changing the medium they read in [1].

[1] Ok, environmentalism might be a rational reason for passing over 10-20 books, but I can't honestly claim that for myself. The strongest counterargument is "free books"... but "self-promoting authors", "Baen books", and even "old classic literature" are distinct sub-genres. I don't see them covering a majority, or really touching the two biggest selling genres (modern crime and romance). It applies to myself only because I read about half the Baen Free Library on CRT, and that's several degrees removed from normality.

Not that I dismiss irrational reasons - I think marketing has been very important, fashion is also there, and my own glee in counting megabytes of digital data (500Mb+) is certainly irrational. It's just hard to analyse them like this.

sourcejedi · 12-05-2010, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pwalker8

make browsing for ebooks online as satisfying an experience as browsing at a book store, then it will take off a lot faster. In theory it should be

Why do you think it should be just as satisfying? RL browsing has several natural advantages; even the constraints can be a benefit (see "paradox of choice"). I don't think it's obvious that a website can be as satisfying - I'd say it's a series of tradeoffs. Maybe you'd need full VR to make something strictly superior :-P.

Filtering out free & self-published books just achieves parity (on one specific criteria). Recommendation engines are a distinct advantage for websites... if you don't enjoy talking to people :-).

It's always easy to say the electronic version should be more efficient, but to show that it's actually pleasant you either need a lot of analysis, or evidence from specific comparisons.

pwalker8 · 12-05-2010, 11:36 AM

Why do you think it wouldn't be? I base my supposition (i.e. the online buying experience could be just as satisfying as the in the bookstore experience) on some 30+ years of experience of going into bookstores and buying lots of books.

Define talking. In a way, we are talking now. If you mean face to face, well yea that's one of the trade offs. It's been my observation that most people don't really talk to other shoppers in a book store unless they are there specifically to talk.

Of course, what is satisfying is different for different people. For people who view shopping as a face to face, social experience, rather obviously the online experience will never be as satisfying. However, I suspect that those people are in a distinct minority among people who buy the majority of books.

In general, my satisfaction level goes up with the likelihood that I'm going to find multiple books that I want to read. That's one of the reasons that I look for books at B&N rather than the grocery store, which has a small selection of books. So I would look for a solution that maximizes my satisfaction level. One of the beauties of the market is that different people can create different solutions. I can imagine people creating web sites to focus on the social aspects of book buying, or even coming up with coffee shops/ebook stores where people can go - get coffee, socialize and buy e-books. Heck, maybe even carry a selection of various ebook readers and coffee table books. Doing so become a lot more feasible if you don't have to carry stock like the current brink and mortar book stores.

DuncanWatson · 12-05-2010, 07:06 PM

As a frequent reader and re-reader of books, one of the large savings of ebooks vs paper books is the space. At this point the current success of ereaders and ebooks means that almost every new release is available in ebook formats. Additionally most current authors have a good selection of their published works available in ebook formats.

This removed a barrier to entry that was present 10 years ago. I can reasonably convert 100% to ebooks for future purchases. The exception being things like the collected works of Roger Zelazny since his estate is not interested in publishing ebooks.

I only converted 6 months ago but that still means there are 130+ books that I don't have to store in my library, most of those are hardcover. The continued growth of ebooks is obviously the product of positive feedback loops.

leebase · 12-06-2010, 09:59 AM

I love bookstores too, as most book lovers do. However, I get far more and better book recommendation online than I ever did in a book store. As in forums like MobileRead.

I don't think bookstores will be missed, frankly. Sure, missed in a nostalgic sense. But really, I already don't go to book stores except once in a blue moon. If I happen to be walking by.

I'm online talking about books pretty much every day.

Lee

11-04-2010, 08:10 AM	#1
JRM34857 Enthusiast Posts: 37 Karma: 28 Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: U.S./KY Device: Sony PRS-505 / Kindle 3 / Nook Touch	"Feedback loops in eBook Success" An interesting article on the "LibraryThing" Website...... http://www.librarything.com/blogs/th...ebook-success/

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12-05-2010, 07:53 AM	#2
boxcorner »(°±°)« Posts: 826 Karma: 775629 Join Date: Oct 2010 Device: divisive reader	Thanks for the link.

12-05-2010, 09:35 AM	#3
pwalker8 Grand Sorcerer Posts: 7,196 Karma: 70314280 Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Atlanta, GA Device: iPad Pro, iPad mini, Kobo Aura, Amazon paperwhite, Sony PRS-T2	Interesting. A lot of good points. If ebook stores can ever figure out how to make browsing for ebooks online as satisfying an experience as browsing at a book store, then it will take off a lot faster. In theory it should be, with the various recommendation mechanisms out there and the theoretical ability to filter search results (no, I don't want to see self published books or PD books, for example).

12-05-2010, 10:23 AM	#4
sourcejedi Groupie Posts: 155 Karma: 200000 Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Britania Device: Android	Probably best summarised as "If ebook sales make up 20% of the market, that might not sound like much, but something like a 20% fall in pbook sales could easily force a conventional book shop to close, so it's not a stable situation". As for the rest, I suspect it takes much more than 20% to break economies-of-scale in printing. The point about making short stories economic again is a really good suggestion, but I'm not convinced by "enhanced ebooks". I don't see how "social reading" gives an advantage to ebooks over pbooks. And you can't argue for "a device that has everything you’ve read since high-school" without explicitly mentioning DRM. OTOH, there is one more feedback loop of sorts. The more ebooks are sold, the more resources will be devoted to making e-reader technology better and cheaper. Without that, you still have the "£100 for a reader? That's 10-20 books I could be reading!" equation. That's the barrier the sort of trends mentioned in the article have to overcome, unless you assume a majority with an irrational attraction to changing the medium they read in [1]. [1] Ok, environmentalism might be a rational reason for passing over 10-20 books, but I can't honestly claim that for myself. The strongest counterargument is "free books"... but "self-promoting authors", "Baen books", and even "old classic literature" are distinct sub-genres. I don't see them covering a majority, or really touching the two biggest selling genres (modern crime and romance). It applies to myself only because I read about half the Baen Free Library on CRT, and that's several degrees removed from normality. Not that I dismiss irrational reasons - I think marketing has been very important, fashion is also there, and my own glee in counting megabytes of digital data (500Mb+) is certainly irrational. It's just hard to analyse them like this.

12-05-2010, 11:36 AM	#6
pwalker8 Grand Sorcerer Posts: 7,196 Karma: 70314280 Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Atlanta, GA Device: iPad Pro, iPad mini, Kobo Aura, Amazon paperwhite, Sony PRS-T2	Why do you think it wouldn't be? I base my supposition (i.e. the online buying experience could be just as satisfying as the in the bookstore experience) on some 30+ years of experience of going into bookstores and buying lots of books. Define talking. In a way, we are talking now. If you mean face to face, well yea that's one of the trade offs. It's been my observation that most people don't really talk to other shoppers in a book store unless they are there specifically to talk. Of course, what is satisfying is different for different people. For people who view shopping as a face to face, social experience, rather obviously the online experience will never be as satisfying. However, I suspect that those people are in a distinct minority among people who buy the majority of books. In general, my satisfaction level goes up with the likelihood that I'm going to find multiple books that I want to read. That's one of the reasons that I look for books at B&N rather than the grocery store, which has a small selection of books. So I would look for a solution that maximizes my satisfaction level. One of the beauties of the market is that different people can create different solutions. I can imagine people creating web sites to focus on the social aspects of book buying, or even coming up with coffee shops/ebook stores where people can go - get coffee, socialize and buy e-books. Heck, maybe even carry a selection of various ebook readers and coffee table books. Doing so become a lot more feasible if you don't have to carry stock like the current brink and mortar book stores.

12-05-2010, 07:06 PM	#7
DuncanWatson Kindle Convert Posts: 190 Karma: 62704 Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Woodinville, WA, USA Device: Kindle Paperwhite, Nook (all)	As a frequent reader and re-reader of books, one of the large savings of ebooks vs paper books is the space. At this point the current success of ereaders and ebooks means that almost every new release is available in ebook formats. Additionally most current authors have a good selection of their published works available in ebook formats. This removed a barrier to entry that was present 10 years ago. I can reasonably convert 100% to ebooks for future purchases. The exception being things like the collected works of Roger Zelazny since his estate is not interested in publishing ebooks. I only converted 6 months ago but that still means there are 130+ books that I don't have to store in my library, most of those are hardcover. The continued growth of ebooks is obviously the product of positive feedback loops.

12-06-2010, 09:59 AM	#8
leebase Karma Kameleon Posts: 2,960 Karma: 26738313 Join Date: Aug 2009 Device: iPad Mini, iPhone X, Kindle Fire Tab HD 8, Walmart Onn	I love bookstores too, as most book lovers do. However, I get far more and better book recommendation online than I ever did in a book store. As in forums like MobileRead. I don't think bookstores will be missed, frankly. Sure, missed in a nostalgic sense. But really, I already don't go to book stores except once in a blue moon. If I happen to be walking by. I'm online talking about books pretty much every day. Lee

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