Author Earnings looks beyond Kindle

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by Fbone

Exclusivity.

Fair enough.
Thanks.

[fjtorres]

Exclusivity in digital media is one of those that everybody does but nobody wants to talk about.

Apple does it.
Netflix does it.
Hulu.
Yahoo.
Microsoft.
Sony.
Nintendo.
All digital content providers want exclusive content to differentiate themselves from the competition.

In ebooks?
Apple does it.
Nook did it first.
Kobo does it when they can.
Even Google does it. (If you count the pirate ebooks. )
And yes, Amazon does it.

I'm no fan of exclusivity but I can understand why platform holders want it and why content providers agree to it. Hint: $$$$

On paper, Amazon has a bit more than two thirds market share in ebooks.
Problem number one is that is only for BPH titles.
It is higher than that for the market as a whole, higher still for non-BPH tradpubs, and verging on scary for Indie, Inc titles.

The real danger that I see ahead for ebooks isn't the negotiated exclusivity behind KDP Select (where Amazon offers benefits in return for 90 days exclusivity) but rather PS2 style exclusivity, where small and medium developers went PS2-exclusive by default without negotiated benefits simply because porting to the other platforms of the day didn't return enough sales to justify the effort.

If we can believe the Author's Guild, Amazon holding 84% of Indie sales is approaching that danger zone: KU already delivers more net income monthly to authors than Nook grosses in a month from all its sales. That is a scary number because, going by the ratios in the AE report, that is more than what Indies net from all non-Kindle sales so it is a tossup as to whether KU revenue can supplant sales revenue from the other stores for those titles. And KU is still growing its pool monthly...

Not. Healthy. For the industry...
But it might be good business for the writer-publishers...

(Note:

http://the-digital-reader.com/2015/0...losses-shrink/

Nook monthly ebook sales run $12.3M a month and they currently hold about 7% share or a quarter of the non-Kindle market in dollar terms.
18% of that $12.3M is gross Indie revenue. That happens to be the highest Indie gross of the non-Kindle world so if Indies get the same gross at the other 21% from the other stores (which they don't) then the most they can get from going wide is $9M a month. And KU is already paying out $11M a month.

Sales *will definitely* vary for each individual author and each author will have different goals and audiences (quite a few report significant income from Apple or Kobo) but when sizing up the relative revenue pools KU is already a bigger income source for Indies than all the other channels combined. Easy to see why so many bite the bullet and go exclusive.

As I said: Not healthy. Not when Indie, Inc constitutes 25-30% of ebook unit sales.)

Thing is, it's not just Indies getting the short end of the stick: small and medium tradpubs also underperform at the non-kindle stores.

At Apple, Small/Medium tradpubs get 15% of the revenue
At Nook, small/medium tradpubs get 13% of the revenue
At Kobo, small/medium tradpubs get 22% of the revenue
At Google, small/medium tradpubs get 29% of the fiction revenue
At Amazon, small/medium tradpubs get 19% of the revenue (30% if you consider Amazon a medium publisher) from a much bigger pie. (6-7X!)

Google and Kobo seem to run slightly more level tradpub operations but they're also the smallest revenue sources.

When you consider that Apple and Nook combined hold two thirds of the non-Kindle market share, where the smaller tradpubs (the other 1195 members of the AAP) combined barely out earn the much cheaper Indie titles, that 19% share at Amazon looks mighty tempting and can easily make up 75-80% of their ebook revenue. And the added KU revenue...

For now KU isn't big enough to tempt too many of the smaller tradpubs but if it keeps on growing...

KU exclusivity is a transient thing. 90 days. And a publisher doesn't have to commit all its titles. But for some older, low-performing titles it could bring in much needed cash.

In an ideal competitive environment exclusivity would be an expensive sweetener to a vendor's catalog, like Apple's Potter enhanced ebooks or Amazon's matchbook program. But in the world that Agency made exclusivity is anything but expensive for Amazon. And soon they might end up as Sony's PS2 did: getting exclusivity for free.

The good news is times change. As Sony found out in the PS3 era.

[BearMountainBooks]

Amazon essentially gets exclusivity for free now with no extra benefits for the author. The few things they offer (ability to do a countdown sale or a freebie) aren't worth that much. A freebie and countdown cost the author because 1. free doesn't earn money and most authors take out advertising so it COSTS them in the short run and sometimes the long run. 2. The kindle countdown deal is practically hidden now compared to where it was a year or more ago. I'm running one right now and you don't even see that it's on a countdown deal because they stashed the counter so far on the right that most people won't even notice it. If it's a benefit, I can't tell.

Let's see... the other benefits are that you can be paid about 2 dollars for an average length book (75 words nets about 2 dollars per read) if the book is borrowed via subscription routes. This can be less than an author was making for a sale. So that's a wash.

So far as I can tell there really is no added 'advertising' for authors in the program. If an author takes out an ad, those who have a subscription to KU might read a book they otherwise might not have noticed.

But all in all, I don't think Amazon does much for the exclusivity. (This is not a complaint--it is something I NOTICED after being in and out of the program. No one forces an author to be in the program).

Their market share numbers have, indeed, reached levels where it's probably a bad thing for an author, especially a new one trying to get noticed. (It's hard for any author to be noticed, but the odds are only getting worse at this particular time).

[Cinisajoy]

Bear Mountain,
The countdown is now right below the price. It is not that hard to see if a buyer actually looks at the price.

I saw one just yesterday.
Now I have to say I am not fond of the new blurb location, but that is because so many authors put stuff that does not relate to the story or what the book is about.

[BearMountainBooks]

Originally Posted by Cinisajoy

Bear Mountain,
The countdown is now right below the price. It is not that hard to see if a buyer actually looks at the price.

I saw one just yesterday.
Now I have to say I am not fond of the new blurb location, but that is because so many authors put stuff that does not relate to the story or what the book is about.

No, it's not hard to see if you look for the price, but it's also not a nice large banner across the top like it used to be--urging the buyer to get that low price with the large countdown clock running... If you just click to the book because you saw an ad that it was 1.99, you might not even glance over there...because you are waiting for the BLASTED book description to load--which now takes a day and a half (and I say this as a reader/buyer.) The FIRST thing I want to see if the book description. Now, I go to a page and start paging down looking for it because it loads so dang slow I forget to WAIT for it. OH there it is. TWO LINES and I must click more to READ the dang thing.

And yes. Authors and publishers put things like, "Oh, Miss-you-never-heard of-her Read my book and here is what she had to say." *insert 80 garbage lines* And "My mum loves me more than any other child" And all kinds of nonsense that ...

Well yes. You said it so concisely and well.

I've actually paged away from several books lately because I can't be fussed after waiting for it to load and seeing that the short few lines are not a blurb, but some other nonsense.

[Cinisajoy]

Originally Posted by BearMountainBooks

No, it's not hard to see if you look for the price, but it's also not a nice large banner across the top like it used to be--urging the buyer to get that low price with the large countdown clock running... If you just click to the book because you saw an ad that it was 1.99, you might not even glance over there...because you are waiting for the BLASTED book description to load--which now takes a day and a half (and I say this as a reader/buyer.) The FIRST thing I want to see if the book description. Now, I go to a page and start paging down looking for it because it loads so dang slow I forget to WAIT for it. OH there it is. TWO LINES and I must click more to READ the dang thing.

And yes. Authors and publishers put things like, "Oh, Miss-you-never-heard of-her Read my book and here is what she had to say." *insert 80 garbage lines* And "My mum loves me more than any other child" And all kinds of nonsense that ...

Well yes. You said it so concisely and well.

I've actually paged away from several books lately because I can't be fussed after waiting for it to load and seeing that the short few lines are not a blurb, but some other nonsense.

Well now since I have been burned a time or two by "bait and switch" authors, I always look at the price. "Buy an ad and only lower the price for a very short time. Of course, the next day they are on forums griping about returns. "
You know I am not sure that countdown being so visible is a good thing. Ok this book is on special for 6 days, 22 hours, 10 minutes. Will the impulse buyer come back and grab it?

I leave immediately if the top line is read free on kindle unlimited.
Amazon already says subscribers read for free.

[eschwartz]

More disturbingly, I noticed that search results display a $0.00 price if the book is free on KU -- even though it isn't free for actual purchase!

[Cinisajoy]

Originally Posted by eschwartz

More disturbingly, I noticed that search results display a $0.00 price if the book is free on KU -- even though it isn't free for actual purchase!

Link please. I have never seen a 0.00 price on one that was not free for everyone.

[DuckieTigger]

Originally Posted by Cinisajoy

I leave immediately if the top line is read free on kindle unlimited.
Amazon already says subscribers read for free.

Good for you. You probably have an unlimited budget for books (pun intended). Now you can argue until you are green that KU is not free, but costs money. So what? It costs money. The saying "reading for free" - look at it rather as "reading risk-free". Because essestially that is what it is. There is no worry if the book is bad or not - since a bad book literally does not cost me any extra wasted money, just time.

Like it or not, but KU appears to have still huge potential for growth both for subscribers and publishers. I personally avoid anything in KU that does insist of wanting my money (e.g. only part of a series in KU) - I will leave right away. What I don't mind at all is an author that has some of the books in KU, and not others - BUT only if there is at least a complete series.

[Cinisajoy]

Duckie,
My problem is not particularly the free part. It is redundant and tells me absolutely nothing about the book. That line from Amazon is right above the blurb, so why is the author wasting words.
To me, if I am looking for a book, I want to know about the book not pricing in the blurb.
As a reader, I am perfectly capable of looking in the price box.
To me, stuff like that is one talking down to potential readers and two says that they are more wanting borrowers than actual buyers.
That to me says that because I don't give Amazon $10 then I am not their audience.
Rather like Bear's comment about the countdown not being real visible.
I doubt he meant that statement the way it came across. It came across as readers don't look at the price box. We just click blindly. Most readers I know have limited budgets. Actually I like it better in the price box because I am more likely going to see it if I am running a bit short of my very limited book budget.

In case you are curious my ebook budget is half of what KU would be.
Oh and little secret, I know most KU books will either be free or 99 cents at some point so still very little risk.

I just think putting free in Kindle Unlimited at the beginning of a blurb is a waste of my reading time. Tell me about the book itself.

Yes I did do the free trial of KU. I really couldn't find much there.
Or more precisely, I just waited and watched the books I wanted till they went free.

Oh while we are on that subject, I love authors that put their entire catalog free. I would also tell same said authors don't do that because there are readers that will wait for a book to go free and it might cost them major money.
I know one author that puts his new book to 99 cents on release day. Not sure how smart that is either.
Yes, I take advantage or did. I probably won't waste 99 cents on the next one. The last one was awful.

Hope this clears things up.

[DuckieTigger]

Oh I see, I thought you avoid KU on principle because they all say that subscribers read for free. I guess I have not run across one that says so in the blurp itself. My bad.

There is not enough free books right when you want one to wait and hope it will go free. KU actually saves money for us compared to before KU, since my wife goes through books like water.

Oh, and Maria (BearMountainBooks) is a she.

[MikeB1972]

I'd have thought that the main problem with KU is that it's a fixed payout pot arbitrarily set by Amazon, if KU becomes the main way indie titles are read then when Amazon use their standard method of increasing profit (squeezing suppliers) authors are going to have an uphill battle trying to convince people to actually pay for stuff instead of reading for free.

[BearMountainBooks]

Originally Posted by MikeB1972

I'd have thought that the main problem with KU is that it's a fixed payout pot arbitrarily set by Amazon, if KU becomes the main way indie titles are read then when Amazon use their standard method of increasing profit (squeezing suppliers) authors are going to have an uphill battle trying to convince people to actually pay for stuff instead of reading for free.

Yes, this is a problem. I do make less on a book in KU (about 2 dollars per read) versus a sale, which can range from 2 to 3.75 or so. The squeeze is already there unless you only put books in that are 2.99 or less (which is why you won't see entire series there that often).

I too am aware (both as an author and reader) that many books in KU will go free or 99 cents. I just wishlist them and wait. (Note: For anyone waiting for the two books I have in KU to go free--Amazon allows free or countdown. I chose countdown. The short story that is in there may go free, but I may not bother to discount it at all. Short stories just aren't that popular and the Year of the Mountain Lion is not tied to any of my other works. It isn't even in a similar style to my other works!) The author can do more more than one free day, but only one countdown.

These are things I'm learning with the two books I put in KU. I don't find KU all that useful to me as an author as it has not increased visibility and the countdown, while still available and visible, either isn't that enticing or people don't notice it.

It is also of note that advertisers know that KU books will be free or countdown. I have been turned down for two ads during my countdowns--because "free" does better for advertisers than countdown--ie they move more books, which helps them then sell more ads to writers.

I think even the book bargain advertiser sites are having a hard time keeping readers subscribed--they need lots of carrots and free is more enticing than a lowered price.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by MikeB1972

I'd have thought that the main problem with KU is that it's a fixed payout pot arbitrarily set by Amazon, if KU becomes the main way indie titles are read then when Amazon use their standard method of increasing profit (squeezing suppliers) authors are going to have an uphill battle trying to convince people to actually pay for stuff instead of reading for free.

That "arbitrary" thing keeps popping up.
It isn't arbitrary. There is a formula behind the pool.
It is undocumented but Amazon's track record with KOLL was that they kept the payout constant. Month to month.

And if they reduce it too much, authors will pull out. Many did during the switch in payout algorithms. It's not like the Select contracts last life+70 or require legal court battles to pull out.

KU is a symbiotic relationship; the book publishers need Amazon but Amazon needs them too. They need good affordable reads to keep on collecting those subscription fees. Which can also be ended at a moments notice.

We keep seeing all these warnings about all the ways Amazon can turn on writers, as if Select participants are naive waifs following a judas goat to slaughter. There might be a few wide-eyed dreamers in the mix but the bulk of KU participants are coldly calculating the ways they can use Amazon to their advantage and ready to bolt at the first sign of trouble. These are entrepreneurs availing themselves of a new distribution channel, not artistes hoping the universe will take care of them.

The reason these subjects are openly debated is precisely because the participants are tracking changes in the market. And because they don't fear retaliation. I have yet to see one Indie author pledge undying allegiance to Amazon. What I do see is a lot of "I'll use them as long as it helps me."

If Amazon changes, they *will* bolt. And not quietly.
We'll hear of it and so will Amazon.
Until then, a lot of hay is being made and a lot of books being read.

[MikeB1972]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

That "arbitrary" thing keeps popping up.
It isn't arbitrary. There is a formula behind the pool.
It is undocumented but Amazon's track record with KOLL was that they kept the payout constant. Month to month.

And if they reduce it too much, authors will pull out. Many did during the switch in payout algorithms. It's not like the Select contracts last life+70 or require legal court battles to pull out.

Doesn't the fact that they can (and have) change the payout algorithms entirely at their own discretion and the fact that the "formula" is undocumented make it arbitrary (by default).

I'm not saying KU is a bad thing as it stands, just that this is the most worrying thing about it.