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#16 | |
Wizard
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#17 |
Grand Sorcerer
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The reality is the cheap labor substitution pathway has reached it's end in manufacturing. This is going to cause a wrenching change in corporate profits and behavior.
When the move to China began in the 1980's, the managements saw an endless sea of cheap labor. Now the sea has been used up (so to speak). The long term result will be a shift from human labor in manufacturing to robot labor. But the shift will be long an painful. |
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#18 | |
Grand Sorcerer
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It's no longer enough to *have* a job; they now aspire to something noticeably better than slave labor conditions. There's more to life than subsistence and as the chinese economy improves so do its citizens' aspirations. That is the implied deal in the whole cheap-labor "developing nation" economic model; one generation sacrifices so the next won't have to. Well, China is reaching the Next Generation. And they, reasonably, believe they deserve better. (About time, too.) The cheap-labor ramp to economic development isn't quite played out yet, but if none of the countries that could reasonably benefit from the emerging opening take advantage, we'll likely see a new wave of automation-based cost-reduction like we saw in the 80's before mainland China opened up. It's not a given, though; if the world economy softens again (likely, actually) there won't be demand for extra product *or* capital for the automation investment. A bigger (and more proximate) threat than a cheap-labor shortage is a capital shortage. |
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#19 | |
Wizard
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As it happens, I expect things to get really ugly with the world economy. I'd really prefer to be wrong about that. |
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#20 |
Zealot
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What the story does not address directly is the Foxconn suicides, and the fact that, according to reports, Foxconn is one of the Chinese manufacturers who (supposedly) treats/pays their employees better than average. There is probably a shift in the demands of workers that is starting that may actually be driving this increase (pure speculation, not an in depth analysis)
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#21 | |
Wizard
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I'm not saying I know what happened with Foxconn; I'm saying I know enough not to make assumptions about the case. Just as a spoiled American who's been exposed to factory conditions, I'd say all factory work is bleak at best. If I thought my fate was to spend years or decades doing it, suicide might look appealing. And I'm not the suicidal type, lol. Last edited by Maggie Leung; 07-07-2010 at 12:51 PM. |
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#22 |
Evangelist
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Except, of course, that all of the prosperity and industrialization in China has occurred in the coastal regions, while there are still the better part of a billion people living in poverty in the interior. They'd be happy for those crappy, underpaid manufacturing jobs.
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#23 | |
Wizard
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#24 | |
Zealot
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Fair enough. |
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#25 | |
Wizard
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But you will be surprised how quickly factories move, in spite of all the obvious problems involved. In 2-3 years 50-80% of the electronics may be gone from Shenzhen. Transportation inefficiencies pale compared to labor costs and local authorities usually work very quickly to remove those inefficiencies when they want to attract new factories to their areas. I have seen it happen before. And that is not a bad thing. Other areas in China and other countries are in desperate need of such jobs which will help to pull these areas out of poverty. Just as they have helped develop the coastal areas in Southern China. Last edited by HansTWN; 07-07-2010 at 07:44 PM. |
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#26 | |
Evangelist
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And during the time it takes for that increase, all the component parts are going drop by a total even higher than that $6.94, won't they? |
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#27 | |
Banned
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Might not have worded that exactly as I wanted but the idea distilled down is the current ideas taught to "business majors" is that inflation is GOOD for The Company and no concern is given to customer retention any longer...hence 2hr waits on hold for customer service while Dave from AT&T is on another Line as Joe from Dell support... I don't blame those with the jobs, I blame the whole corrupted market system we have devolved into as a planet. |
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#28 |
Wizard
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That sounds good, Brecklundin. However, I have seen it in every country in Asia I visit and it is the same in the US: young people don't want to work in factories as living standards rise. They prefer service industry jobs, even at lower pay. Additionally there are a host of other regulations that make running factories profitably in "advanced" countries quite difficult. Just as there are so many immigrants in the US because no American wants to do those jobs.
Last edited by HansTWN; 07-07-2010 at 11:56 PM. |
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#29 | |
Wizard
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#30 | |
Wizard
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My grandmother worked in a garment factory in San Francisco, sewing major-label clothing for $9 to $11 per dozen blouses. Everyone in the street full of garment factories was Asian. That was nearly three decades ago. Nowadays, with the few remaining textile jobs in the U.S., you'll see likewise -- all the workers are first-generation Asian Americans or Latino Americans. Even decades ago, my grandmother couldn't have reasonably afforded what she sewed. I remember seeing the blouses in stores such as Macy's, each selling for multiples of what my grandmother earned per dozen. Last edited by Maggie Leung; 07-08-2010 at 01:49 AM. |
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