Unutterably Silly The Countdown

[LazyScot]

Originally Posted by DixieGal

How do we escape the catch-22?

You need someone with the Charisma, Political Capital, Strength of Personality, Courage and Vision to stand up and say "We will do it this way", but this person must have listened to the debates and made a sensible decision based on reasoned scientific and economic trade-offs for the whole planet, and not just the arguments of one or two well placed companies.

Sadly, I don't see such a person coming from Europe (I include the UK in Europe, lest anyone doubt that).

[DixieGal]

If only it could work like the TV switch to digital that is coming in Feb. People had plenty of time to get used to cable. Then digital satellite. The majority of people have one or the other. Now, for the past year, everyone has been warned that analog antennae will stop working and have been offered the choice to get themselves a converter or a new TV.

That's not to say that when some people wake up and find their TV sets no longer work, that there will not be some complaining and "why didn't someone tell me?" But all-in-all, I think the switch to digital has been handled smoothly and was well managed for a decade. There has not been a sudden panic and rush to convert everyone at the last minute.

However, I see a different path for alt fuel unless a plan is put into place by someone brave and powerful enough to do it. Unless alt fuel is phased in gradual steps toward a common goal, I see it suddenly becoming a crisis when it finally seeps into the US consciousness that we are running out of oil.

There has to be a carrot. People happily switched to cable or satellite TV because it offered something much better than what they could pull out of the air. Telling them that switching to alt fuel is better for the economy / environment / future political stability is too esoteric. We need a carrot big enough to hit people over the head with, such as better vehicle performance than with gasoline, the coolest cars only come with alt fuel capability, and/or rock stars start driving them.

[zelda_pinwheel]

Originally Posted by DixieGal

There has to be a carrot. People happily switched to cable or satellite TV because it offered something much better than what they could pull out of the air. Telling them that switching to alt fuel is better for the economy / environment / future political stability is too esoteric. We need a carrot big enough to hit people over the head with, such as better vehicle performance than with gasoline, the coolest cars only come with alt fuel capability, and/or rock stars start driving them.

the world is in a sorry state when the lifestyles of rockstars have more influence than a reasoned, scientific explanation of consequences and necessities.

[DixieGal]

Originally Posted by zelda_pinwheel

the world is in a sorry state when the lifestyles of rockstars have more influence than a reasoned, scientific explanation of consequences and necessities.

But it's true. If all the Nobel laureates pulled up in alt fuel cars to pick up their prizes, the world would yawn (if it noticed at all). If Bono and the band, Rhianna, et al pulled up to the Grammys in alt fuel limos to pick up their prizes, people would go crazy to have one for themselves.

[zelda_pinwheel]

i'm not disagreeing with you ; i know it's true. it's just deeply troubling.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by DixieGal

There has to be a carrot.

Unfortunately true... but this would be the single most important thing for the administration to work out, and if they were successful, could get the majority of Americans behind a new vehicle type in short order. Lots of carrots.

I personally feel all-electrics with alt-fuel battery charging only would work for probably 90+% of American driving, and require much, much less alt-fuel use than present gas and alt-fuel vehicles. Cars would get most of their energy from plugging in between uses, and we already have the beginnings of an electrical grid for that job (needs upgrading, but can be used as-is in the beginning and improved upon later). If a plug-in system was devised, and everyone using it had an account registered to the car and driver that allowed them to plug in anywhere and be directly charged, you have a workable system.

If you can effectively demonstrate how much money it will save owners over gas (especially if the gas subsidies GO AWAY), you've got a good carrot. If you offer good incentives to trade in your old car for a new one (even if it's just a significantly lower tax for owning the new car), you've got another carrot. And if the cars offer some other new feature, like remote driving capability on highways, preferably something not available on old-tech cars, another carrot.

How 'bout a tax break or rebate on the cost of the car for using mass transit instead of your car? Another carrot. (Actually, this would work for today's cars, too... but you could set things up so it only pays off for new-tech cars).

And oh, yeah: Make 'em pretty, for God's sake.

I wish this wasn't what was required to get most Americans to switch to more efficient vehicles. Unfortunately, the history of American consumerism demonstrates that it is the best solution to get the most people on-board.

[DixieGal]

Tax breaks are not enough incentive. The key to making the masses want fuel cell or electric cars has to be tangible. Credit card cash-back rewards. Very stylish vehicles with lots of options. Have the cars featured on TV as characters, such as the car on Supernatural.

It has to create desire from no-nonsense commuters right up to luxury car owners. Just having a sense of duty is not enough. An alt fuel car has to be sexy.

[Greg Anos]

Arrghhh....

I have an abiding faith in homo economicus! If you have a alt fuel vehicle that is cheaper to buy, and cheaper to run, you'd have a human stampede to it! But you don't! You're talking about an inferior car with inferior capabilities, at higher prices that a standard car. It may cheaper to run, but all those savings are eaten up by the higher purchase costs. So, of course people don't buy them. The only people who want to waste their money are those people who pay a premium for fashion! And those are the people who pay attention to rock stars.....

If you can figure out how to cut Li-Pol batteries manufacturing costs to 10% of what they currently are, then you'd have your problem solved. But that'll take huge amounts of applied engineering, not rock stars....

[RickyMaveety]

Originally Posted by Slite

The sad part is that until we all get together and say "THIS is the alternative we alla will use", it won't happen anyway. We need a standard, otherwise no-one is willing too invest in the infrastructure needed. The gas station owners don't want to sink money into it if there are no potential customers and the endusers won't buy a car using that alternate fuel unless they can get that fuel wherever they go. So, it's kind of a catch-22 thing really.

I hear what you are saying, and I agree with you. However, think back 100 or so years ago (maybe a little longer). The horse and buggy was still popular, and there wasn't a gas station on every corner. Bit by bit, someone took a chance on something, and there were pioneers who purchased the new fangled technology, and made due with the fact that getting fuel to run the damn thing wasn't easy, and if you got stuck in the mud you would have a hell of a time getting out .... and bit by bit the new technology took over and now, not so many horse and buggy teams out there and lots of cars.

I do think that an efficient alternative fuel mode of transportation will be invented, and will eventually take over our current system. I do not think it will happen instantly ... but from the invention of the automobile (which was originally more of a plaything for the rich), through mass production of same (thank you Henry Ford) resulting in a price most people could afford, to the building of a highway system that could support the automobile ... that happened over a period of what .... about thirty years (?) maybe more (?).

It's going to take a breakthrough in technology, but I do believe it is going to happen. The question is only how long it will take ... I don't happen to have the answer to that one, but I can pretty much assure you all that it won't be overnight.

[pshrynk]

Originally Posted by DixieGal

How do we escape the catch-22?

Well, first, you ditch your plane in the water at every opportunity, then, after you 've practiced rowing the inflatable dinghy enough times that you really have it down, you ditch your plane near the Straits of Gibralter and row to Sweden.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

Arrghhh....

I have an abiding faith in homo economicus! If you have a alt fuel vehicle that is cheaper to buy, and cheaper to run, you'd have a human stampede to it!

People bought SUVs, when they were not cheaper to buy nor to run, because they were convinced by the automakers, via Madison Avenue advertisers, that they needed them... they wanted them... they'd be cool with them... they'd get laid with them...

I have more faith in Homo Emotionalis Rex to respond to fun, sexy, nonsensical commercials, just like they always have.

[Greg Anos]

Originally Posted by pshrynk

Well, first, you ditch your plane in the water at every opportunity, then, after you 've practiced rowing the inflatable dinghy enough times that you really have it down, you ditch your plane near the Straits of Gibralter and row to Sweden.

But you've got to fly a lot of missons first.....

[Greg Anos]

Originally Posted by Steve Jordan

People bought SUVs, when they were not cheaper to buy nor to run, because they were convinced by the automakers, via Madison Avenue advertisers, that they needed them... they wanted them... they'd be cool with them... they'd get laid with them...

I have more faith in Homo Emotionalis Rex to respond to fun, sexy, nonsensical commercials, just like they always have.

(I'm going to regret this.....)

Steve, American have wanted big cars for 60+ years. Look at what was made and sold. There were a few effcient cars slipped in (the classic example is the '55 to '57 Chevies) but mostly big boat cars sold. The youth market wanted High powered cars (small to have an even higher power-to-weight ratio) in the '60 and '70, but the small, effcient car market was always a niche market. Not non-existant, just niche. And don't let all the nostalgic hippies kid you otherwise. Don't take my word for it, look at the sales records.

The clean air act (and high insurance rates - I wonder why?) killed the muscle car dead. The clean air act and the first oil crunch hammered the big boat car. CAFE cause the big three to sharply curtail big boat car production. Now nothing but effcient cars would now be mass produced....

Funny thing happened. People still wanted big boat cars, they just couldn't 1. afford the gas, and 2. find them to buy. As soon as gas dropped in the oil bust, the general American public started looking around to buy their big boat cars again, and couldn't find them. But yankee ingenuity triumphed, and they found the truck/cars called Suburbans that had been in the truck market (which was not covered by CAFE rules!) for 40 years and said "close enough". And so the big boat car morphed into the SUV. Which brings us to the next major oil crunch, and the same buyer dynamics of the first one. They don't want small cars, they just figure they need them. At least for now. So the real answer is not to make everybody drive a tiny alt-fuel car, but to find a way to make an effcient alt-fuel big boat car. And everybody will live happily ever after.

[pshrynk]

Well, then, we'd run into the shortage of fairy dust, and where would we be then? (Not that I disagree with your analysis, RSE.)

[vivaldirules]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

So the real answer is not to make everybody drive a tiny alt-fuel car, but to find a way to make an effcient alt-fuel big boat car. And everybody will live happily ever after.

Beg to differ. Real answer: let's walk. It's a beautiful day out there. Every day.