Dedicated E-Readers: They're History

[BenLee]

Originally Posted by rwizard

So as long as there is a significant reason to use an ereader over some converged device they will survive, but as soon as there is no significant reason (some people will still have reasons but they will not be compelling enough for the majority of people, including avid readers) their days will be numbered.

Absolutely.

As of now, the huge price difference between the iPad and (most) eReaders is still a good enough reason for many people who just want to read. Once iPads creep into the $200 range, eReaders may be in trouble.

[ppw]

The original author's time frame is holiday season 2011. If tablet price drops to $200-$300 by then, dedicated reader will really be in trouble.

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/perlow/kin...tinction/13305

[BenLee]

Originally Posted by ppw

The original author's time frame is holiday season 2011. If tablet price drops to $200-$300 by then, dedicated reader will really be in trouble.

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/perlow/kin...tinction/13305

Also, assuming the dedicated readers do not drop to $50....which they might have to at that point.

[HamsterRage]

Originally Posted by BenLee

Exactly. I wouldn't begin to make a claim like "eReaders are history" until the iPad and e-ink devices are significantly closer in price.

I'm not sure that's ever going to happen.

Way back near the beginning of the PC era, prices were considerably higher than today. I seem to remember a Compaq 386 running somewhere near to $3K when it first came out.

But I don't think we've seen the same kind of drop in prices over the past 15 years or so. It seems to me that a PC or a laptop costs about the same as it did years ago, but the amount of power, memory and storage space for that same money has gone up. That seems to be trend. Manufacturers add more capabilities to the devices rather than drop the price.

So my guess is that the iPad isn't going to come down in price much, but rather you'll see upgraded power in each generation. There's going to be a wave of competing devices in the next year or so, so we'll see what that does to the market.

On the other hand, the big threshold for eReaders is the cost of the eInk screen. That costs something like $50 or so. I'm just guessing here, but I say that we're still way at the small end of the economies of scale for eInk. There's lots of room for increased volume to drag the price of that component way down. Look for a $5 cost for the screen in a few years.

And that means a $50 eReader, or less, is, at least in my opinion, an inevitability with something like 5 years. And I think it's going to go that way because there's simply a limit to the number of features and power you need in a dedicated eReader. So the manufacturers can't keep adding capabilities and keep the price stable.

[Lastblade]

I love doom and gloom stories that are completely wrong.

[J. Strnad]

Watches are still around. They've lost market share, particularly with young people, but there are still people who would rather cock their wrist to see the time than pull out their cell phone. It may not ever be a growth industry again, but that doesn't mean they'll die out completely.

I don't think that a basic reading device should be a $400 item, as the Kindle started out, or a feature-packed electronic whizbang device. It ought to be pretty cheap, more of a commodity than a status symbol.

Then again, when purses can go for $800 and up, the same thing could happen with ereaders. You wouldn't really get any more functionality for a thousand bucks but you'd get the Gucci name or diamonds around the edge or somesuch.

[dorino]

Originally Posted by J. Strnad

Then again, when purses can go for $800 and up, the same thing could happen with ereaders. You wouldn't really get any more functionality for a thousand bucks but you'd get the Gucci name or diamonds around the edge or somesuch.

Sony is Gucci.

[idraw22]

Gad, seems like they're just trying to say that there aren't enough of us avid readers to to wanna buy something that just reads books. Tho that may be true, all I want really need are couple of book ereaders. I love my Jetbook, and my new Sony reader. An Ipad costs too much for me, and besides... one of my bookshelves buckled this weekend.

[sabredog]

Originally Posted by dorino

Sony is Gucci.

My Sony PRS-300 is not diamond encrusted, but it IS silver

[EowynCarter]

1. Pixel Qi is successful and adopted on a wide range of tablets.

2 E-ink gets color and capable of sufficient frames per second to make full motion video viewable.

3. Tablet devices that cost about the same as the dedicated device.

They'll still be there. Cellphone can do photo, vidéo, music. But we still have dedicated PMP and camera. Because they do their one job better.
Tomorrow's dedicated readers won't be the same as today's, buy you'll still find device to do that one job, at cheaper than the "do-it-all" stuff.
I can't see myself using a 5" cellphone, and that's a bare minimum to read with some comfort.
Though maybe, instead of cellphone + cybook, it will be cell phone and 6" video + music + book reader.
PMP is where i think "reeding" will blend in, mainly because video and reading have in common needing a larger screen.

Then, you will find people to think : I just want to read, i don't want to spend $$ on functions I don't care about.
Just like there are some people to think "i want to play music, i don't care about video anyway"

Gad, seems like they're just trying to say that there aren't enough of us avid readers to to wanna buy something that just reads books

That the case now, prices means only people reeding lot will consider an e-reader. But if e-readers gets really cheaper, that might change.

[John Bailey]

Why is it such a big deal? Especially for Apple customers?

Buyer's remorse starting to sink in perhaps?
Or is the Apple dogma of less is more somehow threatened by a device that actually does even less?

[LDBoblo]

Originally Posted by EowynCarter

They'll still be there. Cellphone can do photo, vidéo, music. But we still have dedicated PMP and camera. Because they do their one job better.
Tomorrow's dedicated readers won't be the same as today's, buy you'll still find device to do that one job, at cheaper than the "do-it-all" stuff.
I can't see myself using a 5" cellphone, and that's a bare minimum to read with some comfort.
Though maybe, instead of cellphone + cybook, it will be cell phone and 6" video + music + book reader.
PMP is where i think "reeding" will blend in, mainly because video and reading have in common needing a larger screen.

Then, you will find people to think : I just want to read, i don't want to spend $$ on functions I don't care about.
Just like there are some people to think "i want to play music, i don't care about video anyway"


That the case now, prices means only people reeding lot will consider an e-reader. But if e-readers gets really cheaper, that might change.

A lot of it depends on the state of the e-paper industry. There may be a division within the tablet industry between reflective displays and transmissive displays, but reflective-display tablets, unless EPD technology stagnates and none of its usurpers actually gain ground, will be capable of web functions and general media consumption. Software being developed for current tablet platforms will pave the way towards usability that reflective-screen devices have thus far never enjoyed.

There will also be a high end and a low end, with the low end being promoted for more primitive functions like reading and web browsing. However, unless a significant price disparity remains, even the bottom of the range will involve diverse media.

Of course, this involves a LOT of assumption about where the e-paper market is going. Qualcomm and Liquavista seem to lean towards convergence, with power savings being an equalizer. E-Ink and other EPD companies are thus far aiming at a divergent market, but that is largely due to their inability to produce screens with rapid refresh. I suspect the tablet market today would be quite different if a huge OEM went with something like Pixel Qi and Tegra 2 and all the copycablets followed suit instead of LCD/Atom combos. Readers and tablets would not wholly converge, but they'd be a hell of a lot closer.

[Wordcrasher]

I don't know where the market is going, but in last days I went several times in a shop where I could freely try the iPad. It's a really great toy and I was very near to buy it.
But I'm still convinced that eInk is currently the best way to eread. So when I saw the new Kindle2's price I decided my money is going there, and I hit the "Buy it" button five minutes ago.
As I said, nothing against the iPad, it's a wonderful general use device. I just prefer eInk for reading.

[Star56]

I own 2 Kindles, 2 505's and a 300.

I also own two Ipads.

They can comfortably coexist in a single household!

After about 20 hours of reading on the ipad I can say that it is an excellent ereader. I have adjusted the backlighting to the point where I can go for hours without eyestrain. Also the weight is a non-issue. For reading illustrated works, magazines,newspapers and comics, the ipad has no rival. It isn't even close.

Now does this mean I have abandoned my beloved Sony readers? Of course not. I use them also.

Is reading a backlit screen different than reading an eink device? Yes. But the difference is not significant ( with the exceptions noted above) and for reading your basic book I can use either set of devices with ease.

[djgreedo]

Originally Posted by rwizard

The only ways that dedicated readers could go away in the next 3 to 5 years, based on the technology we know about,are:

1. Pixel Qi is successful and adopted on a wide range of tablets.

2 E-ink gets color and capable of sufficient frames per second to make full motion video viewable.

3. Tablet devices that cost about the same as the dedicated device.

In addition to one of the above, the devices in question would have to run a minimum of 10 to 12 hours of use on a charge and be a good form factor for a portable reading device (5 to 8 inch screen depending on who you talk to).

All this talk of e-readers vs tablets is almost certainly going to be moot within a few years. As you've pointed out, the technology will advance to a point where a tablet can have the features that they currently lack (paperlike screen, colour, video, etc.) that will make them better readers than the current e-ink devices.

All a tablet needs (for me at least) to replace my Kindle is a screen I can read comfortably (and that uses very little battery power). I'd love the reading functionality of the iPad in a reader with an e-ink screen.

For me it's not a matter of having a dedicated device vs an all-in-one device. I just want to do what I do in the best way possible, and for reading that is currently e-ink on my Kindle. I find that dedicated devices generally avoid compromise (until you get to the netbook/laptop size where the more the merrier applies in terms of functionality), but if a tablet arrives that can replicate the Kindle experience as well as tablet features I'd buy it.