Dedicated E-Readers: They're History

[MaggieScratch]

My smartphone has a great camera and plays mp3s. Yet I still have (and regularly use) an mp3 player (actually, two of them, and neither are fruit-related) and a digital camera.

[BenLee]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

Exactly. Dedicated readers can survive as a niche device for the avid reader/bookworm set.

While multi function devices can cast a wider net and sell e-books, magazines, newspapers etc. to people who would never buy a dedicated reader--thus expanding the e-book market beyond just the avid readers.

That's a good point. I think the iPad has done that somewhat already because I hear a lot of non-readers are getting into buy a few books here and there just by the mere fact that an eReader app is loaded onto the device. It's amazing what you can get people to buy just by offering them the option. I work in a cellphone apps company and you would be astounded by the number of ringtones people buy merely because the app to buy it was preloaded onto the phone when they got it.

[Worldwalker]

I'm not going to pay a couple of hundred bucks every year or two to replace a device that does exactly what I need it to do. There needs to be some functionality upgrade, a major one.

As to selling ebook readers to people who don't read ... well, that's like trying to sell golf clubs to people who don't play golf.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by MaggieScratch

My smartphone has a great camera and plays mp3s. Yet I still have (and regularly use) an mp3 player (actually, two of them, and neither are fruit-related) and a digital camera.

It just depends how much people are into hobbies.

I know people like you that have an iPhone, but still use an iPod and a camera as they're listening to music all day long and take a ton of photos and care about quality.

I know others who just listen to music here and there, and don't take many photos, who have iPhones and don't own other music players or digital cameras.

The same is true with tablets and e-readers. The avid readers will want a dedicated reader even if they also buy a tablet. But the casual readers will be fine doing their little bit of reading on the tablet.

Which is again why there's plenty of room for tablets and dedicated readers on the market. Just like there's room for smartphones and mp3 players and digital cameras etc.

A dedicated device will always be superior to diehard enthusiasts of a hobby. But for casual fans of a hobby, a multifunction device likely does the job well enough for them to not need a separate, stand alone device.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by Worldwalker

As to selling ebook readers to people who don't read ... well, that's like trying to sell golf clubs to people who don't play golf.

Exactly. Which is why dedicated reader devices won't be killed by Tablets.

The avid readers who read enough to warrant buying a dedicated reader will probably mostly still buy them. Some will move on to tablets for sure--as many here have posted about putting their e-reader in a drawer after getting an iPad. But it won't be enough to kill the market for dedicated readers.

And most people buying tablets will be people who would have never bought an e-reader in the first place. Reading about iPad impressions on other sites that aren't e-reader sites--very little of the discussion is about the e-book apps etc. People are buying them as web browsers, video watchers, etc.--mainly to replace netbooks--from what I've seen on forums for hobbies other than reading.

Yet a few of them do mention using iBooks, or checking out the Kindle app, or reading comics on it--so again it can expand the e-book market a bit among people who didn't buy it with reading in mind.

[BenLee]

Originally Posted by Worldwalker

I'm not going to pay a couple of hundred bucks every year or two to replace a device that does exactly what I need it to do. There needs to be some functionality upgrade, a major one.

As to selling ebook readers to people who don't read ... well, that's like trying to sell golf clubs to people who don't play golf.

I'm not so sure that most hardcore readers would think the same way. Now that you mention golf, that's a great example. Hardcore golfers are irrational! They buy everything. They will buy a crazy club for $500 if you tell them it will take a stroke off their game.

Are avid readers any different? I don't really think so.

There are people on this forum who have bought 10+ devices just to see what it's like. Now, I'm not saying that's everyone here, but there will always be a segment of the market that are the enthusiasts. They will make up 80% of the sales being made.

The rest of the sales will then come from people who casually read. Now, we're not talking about people who don't read at all, ever. That's not part of the market. We're talking about the majority who read less than 10 books per year. That is the casual reader market that devices like an iPad will be very successful at targeting and converting.

[BVLarson]

No! They are not history!
But they will be driven down-down-down in price. Saying they are history is like saying Xboxes are history because they lock you into Xbox games. If they are cheap enough and offer good quality, they will sell like mad. (Just check out the Ipods/Itunes story and how "dead" they are).

[BenLee]

Originally Posted by BVLarson

No! They are not history!
But they will be driven down-down-down in price. Saying they are history is like saying Xboxes are history because they lock you into Xbox games. If they are cheap enough and offer good quality, they will sell like mad. (Just check out the Ipods/Itunes story and how "dead" they are).

Exactly. I wouldn't begin to make a claim like "eReaders are history" until the iPad and e-ink devices are significantly closer in price.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by BenLee

Exactly. I wouldn't begin to make a claim like "eReaders are history" until the iPad and e-ink devices are significantly closer in price.

And even then I think there's a big enough niche of people who want e-ink devices to keep them around.

Now once there are tablets with screens like Pixel Qi etc. that have a reflective mode comparable to e-ink--and those have been out long enough to drop in price $300 or less, dedicated readers may get scarce.

But even then I could see dedicated readers being like $50 for the people who do nothing but read and don't want the distractions of other functions etc.

[Fbone]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

But even then I could see dedicated readers being like $50 for the people who do nothing but read and don't want the distractions of other functions etc.

Now we're talking!

If the Kindle and Nook were made when cellphones started texting, we'd be there by now. E-ink was invented too late

[BenLee]

I don't know why, but $50 is starting to sound like the perfect price for a device that does nothing but displays books. Must be Seth Godin messing with my head.

[mrkarl]

e readers will be around for quite a while yet.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by BenLee

I don't know why, but $50 is starting to sound like the perfect price for a device that does nothing but displays books. Must be Seth Godin messing with my head.

I think eventually as the screen costs drop, Amazon and B&N will be happy to give them away with the purchase of a $50 gift card for e-books etc.

The e-book stores are their futures, not the hardware. Hardware is just a way to tie people to their stores.

[dpayment]

Originally Posted by EowynCarter

Comparing a potential mini iPad with e-reader ? I wouldn't think of comparing my archos 5 (in term of functions, that's a mini iPad) to my opus. I can read on both, they have about the same screen size (5"), but the reading on archos experience is no match for the reading on the opus one.

I've been reading ebooks for nearly as long as they've been around, I've tried innumerable devices, and I ALWAYS go back to a dedicated ereader.

• First and foremost, trying to read on a 3" cellphone screen is at the very least annoying, page turns are almost constant. I want a 6" screen minimum, but 8" would be ideal;
• As already mentioned, lighting conditions are critical for anything with an LCD screen;
• battery life for LCDs is negligible compared to e-ink;
• cost, a dedicated ereader, since it does only one thing (but really, really well), is bound to be less expensive; and finally
• if I lose an ereader, I've still got my library on my desktop unit, whereas if I were to lose a tablet PC, there goes everything.

There are probably a lot more reasons than I've put here, and I have no doubt in my mind that many will argue with my reasoning, but I just CANNOT believe all these doom-and-gloom sayers out there when they predict that ereaders are going to go away. They are the best devices for doing what they're intended to do, I just can't see any of the new upcoming devices as a truly viable replacement.

Dan

[rwizard]

The only ways that dedicated readers could go away in the next 3 to 5 years, based on the technology we know about,are:

1. Pixel Qi is successful and adopted on a wide range of tablets.

2 E-ink gets color and capable of sufficient frames per second to make full motion video viewable.

3. Tablet devices that cost about the same as the dedicated device.

In addition to one of the above, the devices in question would have to run a minimum of 10 to 12 hours of use on a charge and be a good form factor for a portable reading device (5 to 8 inch screen depending on who you talk to).

If any one of the above scenarios comes to pass, e-readers are in trouble. If number 3 comes to pass with either 1 or 2 then they will likely be dead.

As an example, any device with a screen the same size as an iPad that people might have gotten for reading PDF's costs the same amount as the cheapest iPad or more. I have not seen very many people interested in those devices any more. There is still some interest in devices that are bigger than the iPad since the iPad still does not display an A4 PDF at the proper size since the screen is not big enough to do so.

A friend of mine made a couple of good points to me yesterday when we were talking about whether or not dedicated ereading devices would survive. Someone who knows how to use a slide rule well can solve problems than pretty much anyone using a calculator but calculators became so popular, due to ease of use and convenience, that no one sells slide rules any more. He also noted that fewer and fewer people have watches as more people get cell phones since there is a clock on their phone.

So as long as there is a significant reason to use an ereader over some converged device they will survive, but as soon as there is no significant reason (some people will still have reasons but they will not be compelling enough for the majority of people, including avid readers) their days will be numbered.