Dedicated E-Readers: They're History

[dmaul1114]

Yep. I--and my colleagues and friends--would probably do more hobby reading if reading and writing weren't the core parts of our jobs.

But as professors we're always reading research articles, text books, reading articles we're peer reviewing, reading and grading student writing, writing our own articles etc.

So when we have free time, it's tough to want to spend it doing yet more reading! So for me I spend most of my precious free time on Movies, TV, sports and video games. And that comes after time with the girlfriend, social outings with friends etc.

Leaving reading just a chapter or two at night--and with that I'm reading for leisure. more than the vast majority of my friends, colleagues and acquaintances!

[Teddman]

Originally Posted by murraypaul

What do you think the chances are that Apple release a 6" iPad mini (using the new iPhone 4 high-res screen) sometime next year?
And what would that do to the sales of eReaders?

They actually released an iPad mini already. It's called the iPod Touch.

[murraypaul]

Originally Posted by Teddman

They actually released an iPad mini already. It's called the iPod Touch.

It is pretty small to read on though (although workable), and the battery life isn't great. The third size will be just right

[ppw]

One point I don't see people discuss is the market. I think most of the enthusiast and early adopters already have at least one e-reader device. To survive, the vendors need to expand to the casual reading market. They can not rely on the avid readers to upgrade their devices alone.

Unfortunately, the IPad and its clones will grab the majority of the casual reading segment. I agree with the author, dedicated ebook reader will remain a niche and sales number will shrink in one or two years.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by ppw

Unfortunately, the IPad and its clones will grab the majority of the casual reading segment. I agree with the author, dedicated ebook reader will remain a niche and sales number will shrink in one or two years.

I don't see anything unfortunate about it. It expands the market for e-books and as e-book sales go up and competition increases we'll see prices come down, more pressure on getting to a standard format, dropping DRM etc.

Dedicated e-ink devices will be niche--but they'll remain their for people who want them to purchase them, and that's all that matters.

[kjk]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

I don't see anything unfortunate about it. It expands the market for e-books and as e-book sales go up and competition increases we'll see prices come down, more pressure on getting to a standard format, dropping DRM etc.

Dedicated e-ink devices will be niche--but they'll remain their for people who want them to purchase them, and that's all that matters.

Yes. And some of those "casual" readers will become dedicated readers, and may explore more niche products once they are hooked.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by kjk

Yes. And some of those "casual" readers will become dedicated readers, and may explore more niche products once they are hooked.

Exactly. While I don't read much compared to most here, and reading is pretty far down my hobby list, I'm at least reading 1-2 books a month now rather than a couple a year before I got my Kindle!

Getting a gadget like the iPad that can access (both download/purchase and display) e-books into the hands of casual readers is a good thing as they may be like me and read a tad more when they have the convenience of buying a book without leaving the house, not hassling with a physical copy of a book they'll only read once etc.

[ppw]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

I don't see anything unfortunate about it.

I meant it's unfortunate for the dedicated ebook reader vendors. But ebooks will boom regardless which devices they are on.

[rwizard]

I don't know for sure whether or not dedicated readers will survive or not; however, there is one device that died to a more generalized device, the PDA. Now granted, the PDA was a more general purpose device but dedicated PDA's were more capable than their smart phone counterparts when the majority disapeared. The last time I checked (at least 6 months ago) the only dedicated PDA still bing sold was by HP (unless you want to count the iPod touch). I do not know if they are still selling them. There are 2 primary reasons why MP3 players still exist at this point: price and size. If ereaders can maintain staying at least 50% less expensive than tablets that can last at least a full day of use on a charge then they may be able to maintain enough of a price advantage. Currently, e-ink is the other advantage that dedicated readers have but if Pixel Qi or some similar technology becomes mainstream then they will basically lose that advantage.

There are only 2 ways you can maintain the price advantage: volume of sales and selling at or near cost to promote the same company selling ebooks. If the ereader losses its display advantage (or even nearly looses it since even if ereaders have a slightly better display anything close will be good enough for most people, even many people who read for hours a day every day) then it will lose volume of sales and it will be more difficult to maintain enough of a price advantage since cost of manufacturing goes up per unit with lower volume.

Fore anyone looking at pixels per inch, Apple already has the potential to blow e-ink out of the watter with their new display, they just have to scale up the display (and yes, I am aware of the issues on yealds with LCD screens as displays get larger. I am only pointing out that the potential is there) the only issue is that it is back lit for those that have issues with that.

If the ereaders can maintain both price and display advantages then they have a future. If they cannot maintain both they are doomed because, even though some people will still want them the market will be to small. If you are lucky, at that point 1 or 2 companies will find a way to make money in the ereader market and they will not disappear completely, but your options will be severly limited.

Just my 2 cents worth.

[Worldwalker]

If someone gave me an iPad, it wouldn't replace my 505; it would replace my netbook. Speaking of which, that netbook has supplemented -- not replaced -- my notebook and my desktop. I've done way too much reading on the netbook, notebook, and desktop to want to do more if I have the ereader available. I wouldn't want to do Web development on anything but the desktop, or serious writing on the road with the netbook, but the netbook is the one one that's practical for watching Hulu in bed.

[ppw]

Originally Posted by Worldwalker

If someone gave me an iPad, it wouldn't replace my 505;

Would you buy a new dedicated e-reader to replace your 505? If not every one or two years, the hardware vendors will have to go after people currently without an e-reader. If these people only read books a couple minutes a day and are offered a choice of IPad (or clone) and a dedicated e-reader, which one will they pick?

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by ppw

Would you buy a new dedicated e-reader to replace your 505? If not every one or two years, the hardware vendors will have to go after people currently without an e-reader. If these people only read books a couple minutes a day and are offered a choice of IPad (or clone) and a dedicated e-reader, which one will they pick?

Yeah, when I get a tablet I'll keep my Kindle and read on it in bed etc. No reason not to since a Kindle 1 would be lucky to fetch $100 after the K2 price drop.

But I'm not sure I'd replace it if it broke or I lost it etc as I really don't mind reading on my girlfriend's iPad which I do at her place rather than taking my Kindle over most of the time.


To the second part of your point, that's nothing new. Dedicated e-readers were never going to sell to people who just read a little here and there. If you're not constantly reading a book (even if only a bit at night like me) then a dedicated reader is a silly purchase. Why buy something that only does a hobby that you're not into?

What e-reader companies will have to do is keep improving the devices and keep the prices down so they can sell them to avid readers who upgrade devices etc. They were never going to get non-readers or very light readers.

[fishface]

Thank heavens for ITWorld, with its articles with deep journalistic integrity and thorough research. Otherwise I'd be forced to read fluff this:

http://www.theawl.com/2010/04/the-aw...ing-of-the-end

At least the awl article is funny. Yay for teh interwebs.

[BenLee]

Good point. I don't think eReaders were ever going to create a "new" market to begin with and convince non-readers to suddenly buy a reading device. That's not going to happen. For eReader devices to survive, the same people who currently own eReaders must sometimes buy upgrades AND continue to purchase ebooks. Those who don't own one, and there are a lot of serious readers who do not, need to get one.
On the other hand, you can also do what Apple did with iPad and cast a wide net which includes readers and non-readers alike. That's why many are seeing the multi-function devices as the future. The actual market for specialized readers is tiny compared to the market for people who want to surf the net, write emails, watch videos, read magazines, listen to music....

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by BenLee

Good point. I don't think eReaders were ever going to create a "new" market to begin with and convince non-readers to suddenly buy a reading device. That's not going to happen. For eReader devices to survive, the same people who currently own eReaders must sometimes buy upgrades AND continue to purchase ebooks. Those who don't own one, and there are a lot of serious readers who do not, need to get one.

On the other hand, you can also do what Apple did with iPad and cast a wide net which includes readers and non-readers alike. That's why many are seeing the multi-function devices as the future. The actual market for specialized readers is tiny compared to the market for people who want to surf the net, write emails, watch videos, read magazines, listen to music....

Exactly. Dedicated readers can survive as a niche device for the avid reader/bookworm set.

While multi function devices can cast a wider net and sell e-books, magazines, newspapers etc. to people who would never buy a dedicated reader--thus expanding the e-book market beyond just the avid readers.