This is why Amazon is going to win

[pilotbob]

Originally Posted by HarryT

IF you happen to live in the US. 95% of people on this planet do not .

Ok, now what percentage of people in the world are could afford to spend $300 on an ebook reader? Aren't only about 70% of the adults in the world even literate?

In other words, I don't think marketing the Nook in Gabon (for example) would be of much use.

BOb

[Nevir]

Originally Posted by pilotbob

Ok, now what percentage of people in the world are could afford to spend $300 on an ebook reader? Aren't only about 70% of the adults in the world even literate?

In other words, I don't think marketing the Nook in Gabon (for example) would be of much use.

BOb

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_..._literacy_rate

That stills leaves a huge population of possible users outside of the States; and the US is pretty far behind on literacy anyway (1% is a lot of people)

[pilotbob]

Originally Posted by Nevir

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_..._literacy_rate

That stills leaves a huge population of possible users outside of the States; and the US is pretty far behind on literacy anyway (1% is a lot of people)

Yes, 1% is a lot for such a big country.

However, to say that the Nook leaves out 95% of the population... I think is a big of an exaggeration. Because the potential market would be 1. Literate people and 2. Economically able people. Lets face it, and ebook reader is certainly a luxury item.

Anyway.. I'm still not sure why one has to "win". for example, we know that Linux is a very small percentage of desktop users but they are still happy with it.

BOb

[Kali Yuga]

In terms of the importance of US book sales, keep in mind that in 2008 the US made up close to 1/3 of the global book sales revenues (around $36 bn out of $119 bn iirc). It's also the single largest unified market, as far as I can tell.

Originally Posted by pilotbob

Anyway.. I'm still not sure why one has to "win". for example, we know that Linux is a very small percentage of desktop users but they are still happy with it.

Ehh, it's just a commercialized marketing and branding mentality, but it's mostly meaningless. It would really only be a problem if you purchase a reader and the company either goes bust or drops support for their ereaders.

That seems a tad more likely for Sony and B&N than Amazon, but I'd still regard that as an unlikely scenario.

[kennyc]

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

In terms of the importance of US book sales, keep in mind that in 2008 the US made up close to 1/3 of the global book sales revenues (around $36 bn out of $119 bn iirc). It's also the single largest unified market, as far as I can tell.



Ehh, it's just a commercialized marketing and branding mentality, but it's mostly meaningless. It would really only be a problem if you purchase a reader and the company either goes bust or drops support for their ereaders.

That seems a tad more likely for Sony and B&N than Amazon, but I'd still regard that as an unlikely scenario.

It's not the reader that is important it's the file type and convergence. Amazon is on the outs more and more daily.

[Kali Yuga]

Originally Posted by kennyc

It's not the reader that is important it's the file type and convergence. Amazon is on the outs more and more daily.

Yeah, I don't think so. Heck, even Lonely Planet decided a few weeks ago to issue a ton of their guide books for the Kindle, a process that I'm sure required quite a bit of effort.

It's likely that the Kindle will capture a bit more market share in the US (and abroad), as both Sony and B&N face product shortages. If they do hit the 60% mark, any publisher who refuses to do business with Amazon solely because of the added conversion costs -- especially now that they don't have to convert to B&N's and Sony's proprietary formats -- is either dealing with a highly specialized audience, or not going to last long.

[HansTWN]

Amazon has a great business model (Apple like closed system) AND the best connections to publishers for English books. They may well win this game. But for other languages it is a whole different story -- that will still take years to develop, though.

[kennyc]

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

Yeah, I don't think so. Heck, even Lonely Planet decided a few weeks ago to issue a ton of their guide books for the Kindle, a process that I'm sure required quite a bit of effort.

It's likely that the Kindle will capture a bit more market share in the US (and abroad), as both Sony and B&N face product shortages. If they do hit the 60% mark, any publisher who refuses to do business with Amazon solely because of the added conversion costs -- especially now that they don't have to convert to B&N's and Sony's proprietary formats -- is either dealing with a highly specialized audience, or not going to last long.

As I've said elsewhere, only history will judge, let's see where we're at in 2020.

[Kali Yuga]

Originally Posted by kennyc

As I've said elsewhere, only history will judge, let's see where we're at in 2020.

So you get to prognosticate about how Amazon is allegedly getting frozen out more and more every day, but when I present contrary evidence we need to wait until 2010, 2011, or 2020?

I don't mind you disagreeing with me, but doesn't work to say in one breath that X is the case, then insist that it is premature for someone else to say that Y is the case.

[Journier]

Originally Posted by JSWolf

I don't think Amazon will win at all. I think in the long run, they will lose. They reason being is interoperability is not there. I can take ePub books bought for my 505 and use them on a nook. I'm not locked into one company. I have the freedom to shop at multiple shops. Amazon doesn't give us this freedom. Amazon locks us in place. This is of course for DMRed content. If I was to decide I wanted to move to an iRex DR800G, I could do so and still keep my ePub content. I have choices that Amazon doesn't give me. To me, it seems that Jeff Bezos is a control freak. That's why he had Amazon create AZW and Topaz instead of just going Mobipocket.

Hey JS..., I agree with you there. I can read books on either my 505, 600, or Jetbook. In addition, I do not have to shop at a single site like one has to do with the Kindle. My Sony devices allow me to shop at various sites which I like to purchase books from. Also, I have not heard of Sony taking books off of Sony devices. The Kindle is too proprietary and I do not trust Amazon. That having been said, despite my biases and preferences, the Kindle is a good device. Subsequently, I do not believe that their will be any one winner. Besides... bottom line: I like choice, which ever reader I may prefer.
Richard

[HansTWN]

Originally Posted by Journier

Hey JS..., I agree with you there. I can read books on either my 505, 600, or Jetbook. In addition, I do not have to shop at a single site like one has to do with the Kindle. My Sony devices allow me to shop at various sites which I like to purchase books from. Also, I have not heard of Sony taking books off of Sony devices. The Kindle is too proprietary and I do not trust Amazon. That having been said, despite my biases and preferences, the Kindle is a good device. Subsequently, I do not believe that their will be any one winner. Besides... bottom line: I like choice, which ever reader I may prefer.
Richard

You can do that with Amazon AZW files, I read them on my Sony after conversion. But the point is, Amazon is offering the easiest way to buy and transfer content, the biggest selection. They make it very easy for those who do not visit this website and those who do not want any hassle, just download and read. It is much too early to count them out right after they came out with the international Kindle. They are way ahead in the US and just started to go onto the attack in other countries.

[kennyc]

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

So you get to prognosticate about how Amazon is allegedly getting frozen out more and more every day, but when I present contrary evidence we need to wait until 2010, 2011, or 2020?

I don't mind you disagreeing with me, but doesn't work to say in one breath that X is the case, then insist that it is premature for someone else to say that Y is the case.

Yep. Just like video, just like mp3. History will judge. You have no better insight than anyone else. If the Amazon format is so great then why did not Sony and B&N move to it (or at least Mobi).

I've said nothing that contradicts any of my statements, only yours.

[orwell2k]

Originally Posted by TallMomof2

I showed my neighbor my DX and she her husband fell in love with it. They ended up buying 5 K2s, one each for themselves and their 3 children. I mentioned other readers including the Sony reader and the upcoming Nook but what sold them on the Amazon device was the ease of purchasing and downloading ebooks and availability of the reader.

My neighbors are technical but are not interested in liberating their books or reading library content. They just want an easy reading experience. As long as they stay within the Amazon ecosphere they'll be happy.

Win or lose the Kindle has had and will continue to have a huge effect on the electronic reader market.

Your points are valid for a simple "plug & play" approach to reading - buy the device, buy the eBooks, download them, read. But that model only works (for now) in the US market. And whilst the average user may not want to bother with "liberating" eBooks and/or converting to other (better) formats, that also is fine for now. But what happens when they do wish to read those books on other devices, or upgrade their devices, or as Amazon has already done, they decide to "delete" content from your device withoit consent? Call me paranoid, but I like to have control over the content I buy, so for now, I'm very skeptical about the Kindle.

Having said that, there is no doubt they are a powerhouse in the eBook market. But we do not want a winner - because winner equals monopoly (or close to it). Having those other readers and formats out there is what keeps Amazon pressing ahead wnad improving. So let's hope they never win, but keep trying. And the others will keep trying to grab some of the international market share as well.

[pilotbob]

Originally Posted by Journier

In addition, I do not have to shop at a single site like one has to do with the Kindle.

Yet, many people that don't have a Kindle are looking for ways to buy from Amazon. Evidenced by everyone asking for someone to determine how to get the PID for Kindle 4 PC.

Really, if buying from Amazon is so bad, why do so many people want to find a way to do it when they have some other reader brand that is so awesome and gives them choice? I don't get it.

So, sure I can only buy ebooks from Amazon (that is of course not strictly true as we all know.) I haven't found a reason to need to shop elsewhere. The selection and price in the Kindle store is superior.

Me thinks he doth protest too much.

BOb

[Kali Yuga]

Originally Posted by kennyc

Yep. Just like video, just like mp3.

And unlike video games, streaming audio/video formats, video editing, AAC with or without Fairplay, camera lenses, any application written for a non-Microsoft OS, etc.

MP3 hasn't necessarily "won," since close to 70% of the online music sales market is AAC files (Apple). Devices do need to be able to play MP3's, but you don't have to sell MP3's in order to gain or hold a dominant share of the market. Nor does selling your wares in MP3 guarantee you will "win."

Originally Posted by kennyc

If the Amazon format is so great then why did not Sony and B&N move to it (or at least Mobi).

Because there is zero advantage to Sony or B&N switching to AZW or Mobi. Since all 3 use DRM, B&N or Sony switching to AZW/Mobi won't increase interoperability and will effectively put them at the mercy of Amazon, which controls the Mobi format.

B&N and Sony switched to ePub due to competitive pressures. ePub isn't exclusively controlled by their biggest competitor, and also makes it easier for publishers to provide their retail sites with content, so hopefully this will expand the number of titles they can offer, and this is a good thing.

But I am not in any way, shape or form saying that Mobi is technically superior, or likely to be widely adopted. Heck, it almost certainly would be better if all the publishers had to do was issue one format and call it a day. My position is that that as long as Amazon has sufficient market share, they won't switch format, nor will they need to. Publishers will just put up with the inconvenience of issuing more two or three ebook formats (which is still easier than the current 4 or 5 formats). Some will grumble about it, but right now they're probably too worried about eroding perceptions of the value of their products, securing ebook rights, protecting international rights, and the imminent destruction of their current business models. I'm also saying that the concept of "winning" is generally flawed, since the ebook field will almost certainly be large enough to support multiple vendors and even multiple formats.

Originally Posted by kennyc

History will judge. You have no better insight than anyone else.

I don't claim to have a crystal ball, and obviously no one knows with perfect accuracy what will be the case.

I just hold the position that ease of use, title availability, customer service, product quality, price and branding all carry more weight in a potential customer's decision than "ePub vs AZW."; I've noticed that consumers often manage incompatible formats or standards with a fair amount of aplomb; I've noticed that Amazon can be fairly stubborn, and has a more complex and/or older ebook infrastructure than Sony or B&N; and I can't think of many (or any) instances where a vendor gained a pre-eminent share of the market specifically because they switched to a common format. I.e. I'm fairly comfortable making a prediction that Amazon won't switch and won't suffer as a result -- even though, since my name is not Jeff Bezos, I could certainly be wrong about what Amazon will do.

And I suggest you read your own comments. You stated several times that "Amazon will lose" due to everyone else adopting ePub, then say "no one will know for another 20 years." So which is it? Please make up your mind, kthx.