A confession of defection - Page 2

rijker · 06-16-2009, 11:30 AM

Hmm I don't know - maybe the Kindle is the future because we as a society want content *now*. It could all come down to: how is easy and quick is it to find and get stuff? Amazon is *light years* ahead of others in that dept.

They make it really (really) easy. The Kindle Vision: "Any book ever published, in any language, in under 60 seconds." Geez. This is not an empty promise - for 300,000 or so titles it is reality, now. They have a huge foothold in the market. IMHO nobody else comes close. I don't have to download books to my computer and transfer and jump through hoops, and open programs and re-input credit card information. Click the little picture of the book, read the book. Grandma's can do it. Non techie kids (rare as they are) can do it. Hell, my cat could do it if I could teach him to read.

The brand sticks in my mind because I buy all sorts of things there (just bought some bulk coffee btw). I push a couple of keys and in a day or so nearly anything (it seems) arrives at my door. I don't think of Barnes and Noble. I don't go to Sony's website.
Good luck to your stockholders trying to compete with that.

And in the professional, scientific and academic publishing markets content is *really* king. At DX launch, Amazon had already brought 60% of textbook publishers on board. Very, very big coup. We talk abt the 'ailing publishing industry' but there is still big $$ to be made in STM (scientific, technical, medical) publishing.

The only reason I'm a phanboy of Amazon.com/the Kindle at the moment is because it just works for me.
Maybe some other company will come to bat and do one better, but right now I doubt it.

sirbruce · 06-16-2009, 06:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rhadin

Why do you think the Kindle is the future? Right now it has the wireless, but that will be changing (i.e., other devices will soon have wireless capability). Once Kindle's wireless 'advantage" is neutralized, I see nothing that makes the Kindle the eink device of the future. (I'm not suggesting that it is not a good device or that the Sony is better; just that I don't understand your comment.)

You may be partly right here; Bezos is quick to point our Kindle's advantage by reducing "friction", thereby making it cheaper and easier to buy new books. It's the same philosophy behind Amazon itself, one-click buying, etc. Make it easier for people to buy, and more people will buy from you.

However, what are these other eInk devices offering free wireless? All the ones I've seen announced are just cheaper or larger readers but without wireless. WiFi is not entirely the same; you need a hotspot. These small companies are going to have to team up with cell phone providers to provide a truly equivalent offering.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rhadin

If you are referring to the "breadth" of offerings available at the Amazon Kindle bookstore (as opposed to the device itself), even that is a fleeting advantage. Amazon's competitors are only now gearing up (e.g., Barnes & Noble) and publishers are becoming increasingly wary of Amazon. Besides, a lot of Amazon's advantage in this regard is one of price -- the $9.99 bestsellers -- but that advantage will eventually fade. First, it is not forever sustainable by Amazon as a loss leader. Second, Bezos recognizes that his primary goal is to make money, not lose it, which contributes to the lack of sustainability. And, third, once publishers get real about their ebook pricing, Amazon will adjust its prices as will its competitors. I think competition will be more along the pbook model.

That's certainly the other part, but Bezos has shown through past endeavours that he's willing to take a loss for years in order to expand into a market segment. While prices for most ebooks may creep upward (as they've already been doing) I don't see the $9.99 bestseller price going away, at least not until the economy is doing better.

mdibella · 06-16-2009, 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sdmama

I guess for me it would be a third reader since I also have a 700. However, the 700 lives in a dark nightstand drawer and never gets to come out and play.

Heh mine is upstairs in the bookcase of the spare bedroom. Not only does it not get to come out and play, it doesnt even get space in my own bedroom...not even a nightstand.

What a piece of cr*p...

Gideon · 06-16-2009, 06:39 PM

The wireless part is nice, but it really isn't a huge selling point for me. In fact, I'd be happier with wifi and a cheaper/sleeker device.

The Kindle is king because the store is the best. The moment someone else can tap into that store, I imagine the Kindle will be absolutely trounced.

mdibella · 06-16-2009, 06:51 PM

There are so many reasons that Kindle is 'the future'. I am 59 years old and have been an avid reader since...well, since I learned to read at age 5!

My problem is, I an incapable of throwing out a book (well, with some exceptions. As I recall, I didn't just throw out 'Dhalgren', I burned it...but that's another story) . My house has books in every closet, every room, piled up on the floor, in shelves on the walls of the basement. My books runneth over!!!!

My ebooks, however, take up some space on a portable USB hard drive that I store in my desk. And if a new book comes out in a favorite series, and I want to re-read earlier books, I don't have to search high and low for them. They're all here on that hard drive!

Until the DX arrived, there was a trade-off, being the need to read on that small screen. Now, however, everything I read is on a page the size of a trade paperback or hardcover!

There are two things that need to happen, IMHO, before Kindle (or other readers) will really take over the book market...first, obviously, the price needs to drop. Those of us who bought the DX shelled out 500 bucks and especially now, that's a lotta cash to drop on a gadget...

Second, these guys need to be made a lot sturdier. My brother bought a reader on my recommendation and it broke after a month...admittedly, he had tossed it in a backpack which got thrown into the back of a cab, and before he could stop the driver, his heavy briefcase landed on top of it. He had it in a cover, but hey, nothing is invulnerable...though a paper book comes pretty close. College students are going to be absolute death on these glass screens.

Roy White · 06-16-2009, 08:08 PM

Someone mentioned that they thought the 9.99 price is a loss leader. I wonder if that's true? 9.99 seems like a fair amount of money to pay a company that, in return delivers to you a penny or so of electricity. I'll state the obvious here. A book made of paper and ink and a truck that has to dwlive it to a physical store that pays employees and so on (usual business overhead) and Amazon does none of that stuff. I think/guess that they make a substantial profit off the 9.99 bestsellers.

Or am I missing something? I usually am.

Gideon · 06-16-2009, 10:17 PM

They're still losing money. The publishers demand more than that per book so the book might cost Amazon $13.00 to buy from the publisher (even as an ebook, because publishers haven't adapted to the new business model) and have a list price of 15.99, Amazon would sell it for 9.99 and take a three dollar loss.

But eventually Amazon will quit taking a loss and the publishers will either have adapted to the new price point or Amazon will leverage them into doing so in order to have a place at the table. (Like Wal-Mart does.) And so that's a good and bad thing - it takes power away from the publishers (which is good, because they generally act like idiots) and puts it in the power of Amazon (they generally behave themselves, but monopolies are always bad) - but ULTIMATELY good because the publishers will take more risks with other retailers in order to undermine Amazon's power and that will hopefully lead to cheaper prices and less DRM across the board (much like music has played out.)

But we'll see. There's no real reason to imagine it will work out that way, but the iTunes store/music model is a fairly strong economic... well, setup? It's a rational process, at any rate.

The kicker is that books are a much smaller market than music, and not nearly as many people are going to be interested in ereaders or ebooks and that might change the nature of the game somewhat.

But who knows!?

JSWolf · 06-16-2009, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sirbruce

The Sony is a nice device, but the Kindle is the future. Welcome aboard!

I have to disagree with that. I think ePub is the future of eBooks and unless Amazon gets on board, they'll be left behind.

radamo · 06-16-2009, 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JSWolf

I would be interested in knowing what you think of the K2 after having had a 505.

I second that. I am very happy with my 505 but always wonder how that Kindle would have been... :-D
RA

sirbruce · 06-16-2009, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roy White

Someone mentioned that they thought the 9.99 price is a loss leader. I wonder if that's true? 9.99 seems like a fair amount of money to pay a company that, in return delivers to you a penny or so of electricity. I'll state the obvious here. A book made of paper and ink and a truck that has to dwlive it to a physical store that pays employees and so on (usual business overhead) and Amazon does none of that stuff. I think/guess that they make a substantial profit off the 9.99 bestsellers.

Or am I missing something? I usually am.

Jeff Bezos has confirmed it is true for Amazon, but does not anticipate the price changing for bestsellers as they can make money by selling enough other books above cost. Furthermore he believes that publishers can make money at the $9.99 price point without the traditional overhead of paper publishing.

F1Wild · 06-16-2009, 10:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by radamo

I second that. I am very happy with my 505 but always wonder how that Kindle would have been... :-D
RA

Hey, defect like I did and you'll know. Come over to the Kindle side...I dare you!

Sporadic · 06-16-2009, 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JSWolf

I have to disagree with that. I think ePub is the future of eBooks and unless Amazon gets on board, they'll be left behind.

(No offense but) nobody besides nerds give a damn about ePub.

It really is iPod vs OGG all over again.

Gideon · 06-16-2009, 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sporadic

(No offense but) nobody besides nerds give a damn about ePub.

It really is iPod vs OGG all over again.

I was about to say the same thing.. Nicer, perhaps.

But it's true. Even less than mp3 vs ogg is mobi or whatever vs. epub.

It's not about what is BETTER, it is about what the industry leader goes with.

I prefer ePub as a format, and Amazon not being in the global market helps give it some legs up.. But I don't see any reason to think there is anything that will become 'the future' unless it is a magnification of current trends or we have some reason that that trend won't continue.

Teddman · 06-16-2009, 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gideon

They're still losing money. The publishers demand more than that per book so the book might cost Amazon $13.00 to buy from the publisher (even as an ebook, because publishers haven't adapted to the new business model) and have a list price of 15.99, Amazon would sell it for 9.99 and take a three dollar loss.

I think the publishers are insane. You can often get a new hardcover for near half-price the week it comes out due to sales promotions, which would often put it on par with or even cheaper than what they are charging Amazon for the e-book copy.

You would think Amazon would have the clout to demand better terms, but I guess they're still walking on eggshells trying to cement the Kindle as marketshare leader.

Gideon · 06-16-2009, 11:27 PM

I think William James once said something along the lines of people only change when they have to, this applies to publishers as well.

They're going to get absolutely ran over in this. It's their own fault for being short-sighted and absolutely failing to try to engage the market in a good faith manner so I'm absolutely fine with Amazon ripping them a new one. I'm just hoping the market eventually levels out after it and collateral damage (consumers with devices, DRM issues, etc) are minimal.

I imagine we'll have lots of places selling DRM content that go under, leaving their customers in the lurch (as we saw with the music business.) One of the reasons I've always been dubious of the Sony store is that.. they don't have the best reputation for sticking with it. I hope they do - both for the customers and as competition, but I could see them pulling up stakes VERY easily.

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06-16-2009, 11:30 AM	#16
rijker curiouser and curiouser Posts: 12 Karma: 328 Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Seattle, WA Device: Kindle DX, K1,K2, iTouch 16gb	Hmm I don't know - maybe the Kindle is the future because we as a society want content now. It could all come down to: how is easy and quick is it to find and get stuff? Amazon is light years ahead of others in that dept. They make it really (really) easy. The Kindle Vision: "Any book ever published, in any language, in under 60 seconds." Geez. This is not an empty promise - for 300,000 or so titles it is reality, now. They have a huge foothold in the market. IMHO nobody else comes close. I don't have to download books to my computer and transfer and jump through hoops, and open programs and re-input credit card information. Click the little picture of the book, read the book. Grandma's can do it. Non techie kids (rare as they are) can do it. Hell, my cat could do it if I could teach him to read. The brand sticks in my mind because I buy all sorts of things there (just bought some bulk coffee btw). I push a couple of keys and in a day or so nearly anything (it seems) arrives at my door. I don't think of Barnes and Noble. I don't go to Sony's website. Good luck to your stockholders trying to compete with that. And in the professional, scientific and academic publishing markets content is really king. At DX launch, Amazon had already brought 60% of textbook publishers on board. Very, very big coup. We talk abt the 'ailing publishing industry' but there is still big $$ to be made in STM (scientific, technical, medical) publishing. The only reason I'm a phanboy of Amazon.com/the Kindle at the moment is because it just works for me. Maybe some other company will come to bat and do one better, but right now I doubt it.

06-16-2009, 06:39 PM	#19
Gideon Wearer of Pants Posts: 1,050 Karma: 7634 Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Norman, OK Device: Amazon Kindle DX / iPhone	The wireless part is nice, but it really isn't a huge selling point for me. In fact, I'd be happier with wifi and a cheaper/sleeker device. The Kindle is king because the store is the best. The moment someone else can tap into that store, I imagine the Kindle will be absolutely trounced.

06-16-2009, 06:51 PM	#20
mdibella Groupie Posts: 193 Karma: 1107 Join Date: Oct 2007 Device: Infinite Kindles, Occasional Sony's	There are so many reasons that Kindle is 'the future'. I am 59 years old and have been an avid reader since...well, since I learned to read at age 5! My problem is, I an incapable of throwing out a book (well, with some exceptions. As I recall, I didn't just throw out 'Dhalgren', I burned it...but that's another story) . My house has books in every closet, every room, piled up on the floor, in shelves on the walls of the basement. My books runneth over!!!! My ebooks, however, take up some space on a portable USB hard drive that I store in my desk. And if a new book comes out in a favorite series, and I want to re-read earlier books, I don't have to search high and low for them. They're all here on that hard drive! Until the DX arrived, there was a trade-off, being the need to read on that small screen. Now, however, everything I read is on a page the size of a trade paperback or hardcover! There are two things that need to happen, IMHO, before Kindle (or other readers) will really take over the book market...first, obviously, the price needs to drop. Those of us who bought the DX shelled out 500 bucks and especially now, that's a lotta cash to drop on a gadget... Second, these guys need to be made a lot sturdier. My brother bought a reader on my recommendation and it broke after a month...admittedly, he had tossed it in a backpack which got thrown into the back of a cab, and before he could stop the driver, his heavy briefcase landed on top of it. He had it in a cover, but hey, nothing is invulnerable...though a paper book comes pretty close. College students are going to be absolute death on these glass screens.

06-16-2009, 08:08 PM	#21
Roy White Evangelist Posts: 482 Karma: 7696 Join Date: May 2007 Location: Turner, Oregon Device: Sony Reader	Someone mentioned that they thought the 9.99 price is a loss leader. I wonder if that's true? 9.99 seems like a fair amount of money to pay a company that, in return delivers to you a penny or so of electricity. I'll state the obvious here. A book made of paper and ink and a truck that has to dwlive it to a physical store that pays employees and so on (usual business overhead) and Amazon does none of that stuff. I think/guess that they make a substantial profit off the 9.99 bestsellers. Or am I missing something? I usually am.

06-16-2009, 10:17 PM	#22
Gideon Wearer of Pants Posts: 1,050 Karma: 7634 Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Norman, OK Device: Amazon Kindle DX / iPhone	They're still losing money. The publishers demand more than that per book so the book might cost Amazon $13.00 to buy from the publisher (even as an ebook, because publishers haven't adapted to the new business model) and have a list price of 15.99, Amazon would sell it for 9.99 and take a three dollar loss. But eventually Amazon will quit taking a loss and the publishers will either have adapted to the new price point or Amazon will leverage them into doing so in order to have a place at the table. (Like Wal-Mart does.) And so that's a good and bad thing - it takes power away from the publishers (which is good, because they generally act like idiots) and puts it in the power of Amazon (they generally behave themselves, but monopolies are always bad) - but ULTIMATELY good because the publishers will take more risks with other retailers in order to undermine Amazon's power and that will hopefully lead to cheaper prices and less DRM across the board (much like music has played out.) But we'll see. There's no real reason to imagine it will work out that way, but the iTunes store/music model is a fairly strong economic... well, setup? It's a rational process, at any rate. The kicker is that books are a much smaller market than music, and not nearly as many people are going to be interested in ereaders or ebooks and that might change the nature of the game somewhat. But who knows!?

06-16-2009, 11:27 PM	#30
Gideon Wearer of Pants Posts: 1,050 Karma: 7634 Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Norman, OK Device: Amazon Kindle DX / iPhone	I think William James once said something along the lines of people only change when they have to, this applies to publishers as well. They're going to get absolutely ran over in this. It's their own fault for being short-sighted and absolutely failing to try to engage the market in a good faith manner so I'm absolutely fine with Amazon ripping them a new one. I'm just hoping the market eventually levels out after it and collateral damage (consumers with devices, DRM issues, etc) are minimal. I imagine we'll have lots of places selling DRM content that go under, leaving their customers in the lurch (as we saw with the music business.) One of the reasons I've always been dubious of the Sony store is that.. they don't have the best reputation for sticking with it. I hope they do - both for the customers and as competition, but I could see them pulling up stakes VERY easily.