Pirate Bay founders found guilty

[kad032000]

Originally Posted by sirbruce

Well I still feel that as people shift from pbooks to ebooks, ebook piracy is going to grow and become significantly more of a threat, whether a publisher is using the Baen approach or not. And then we'll have to wait and see what Baen does. But perhaps I'm just a pessimist!

It sounds like you're falling prey to the 1 pirated book = 1 lost sale fallacy. Kovid addressed that earlier.

Hollywood is having some of it's best years even though movie piracy is at an all time high. The Dark Knight is one of the most-pirated movies and is one of the highest grossing films.

[kad032000]

Did anyone else find it strange (and really really sketchy) that the verdict leaked before it was officially given?

[tirsales]

Originally Posted by kad032000

Did anyone else find it strange (and really really sketchy) that the verdict leaked before it was officially given?

I actually find this very amusing and oddly appropriate

[sirbruce]

Originally Posted by kad032000

It sounds like you're falling prey to the 1 pirated book = 1 lost sale fallacy. Kovid addressed that earlier.

It's not a fallacy in this particular market.

Originally Posted by kad032000

Hollywood is having some of it's best years even though movie piracy is at an all time high. The Dark Knight is one of the most-pirated movies and is one of the highest grossing films.

You can't equate that at all; at best you'd have to find a correlation between movie piracy and DVD sales/rentals. Movies have a performance component (theatres) for additional revenue that books do not. All books are "straight to video" releases.

[tirsales]

Originally Posted by sirbruce

It's not a fallacy in this particular market.

Why? After all a given author does (normally) not write a single book, many books are available in different formats (e.g. audio book), etc

[Over]

Originally Posted by kad032000

Did anyone else find it strange (and really really sketchy) that the verdict leaked before it was officially given?

I would say ironic...

[sirbruce]

Originally Posted by tirsales

Why? After all a given author does (normally) not write a single book, many books are available in different formats (e.g. audio book), etc

I'm not saying there's a 1:1 relationship. I'm saying ebooks are a small portion of pbooks right now, and the impact of piracy changes with the shift to ebooks.

Let's say 99% of a book's sales are pbooks and 1% are ebooks. People who pirate ebooks are ebook readers; they often probably wouldn't buy the pbook reader anyway. The impact of ebook piracy is low to overall sales.

If you're a traditional pbook reader, the fact you can get an pirated ebook for free is irrelevant to you. You don't own an ebook reader, or don't want to read books on your PC. You're not even used to the idea of ebooks yet. You like the pbook, like most of today's readers.

As more pbook readers try and like ebooks, they'll shift from buying pbooks to buying ebooks. Okay, so every ebook sale is a lost pbook sale, but as long as people are making their margins everyone is happy.

But now you have a lot more readers willing to read ebooks. And maybe they think ebooks shouldn't cost as much as pbooks, or they resent the DRM (you'll find many of them here). They'll also become more savvy to the nature of ebooks. And a lot more of them will learn that they can just get pirated ebooks for free. After all, they paid $300 for their reader!

So as pbook sales shift to ebook sales, a growing percentage is "lost' due to ebook piracy. Yes, free ebooks, unrestrictive DRM, etc. help encourage sales in other ways. But that works for Baen whilst piracy is relatively low. Let's see how it works when piracy is relatively high. It's like comparing the impact of piracy in the music industry in 1990 vs 2000. Ebooks are still at the 1990 stage.

[tirsales]

Originally Posted by sirbruce

And maybe they think ebooks shouldn't cost as much as pbooks, or they resent the DRM (you'll find many of them here). They'll also become more savvy to the nature of ebooks. And a lot more of them will learn that they can just get pirated ebooks for free. After all, they paid $300 for their reader!

Well - see music, mp3-player and music piracy..

It's like comparing the impact of piracy in the music industry in 1990 vs 2000.

Well - provide some proof that piracy was hindering the music industry in the year 2000. I did not find a single study indicating this - but multiple stating a quite different result.
Yes, books and music are not the same - still the same (provide high quality, good service, reasonable pricing) is true for music and books - after all I could get the same music for free (whether I listen to it only once or multiple times is irrelevant - and concert tickets are not that high a factor).

[zerospinboson]

Originally Posted by sirbruce

I'm not saying there's a 1:1 relationship. I'm saying ebooks are a small portion of pbooks right now, and the impact of piracy changes with the shift to ebooks.

Let's say 99% of a book's sales are pbooks and 1% are ebooks. People who pirate ebooks are ebook readers; they often probably wouldn't buy the pbook reader anyway. The impact of ebook piracy is low to overall sales.

If you're a traditional pbook reader, the fact you can get an pirated ebook for free is irrelevant to you. You don't own an ebook reader, or don't want to read books on your PC. You're not even used to the idea of ebooks yet. You like the pbook, like most of today's readers.

As more pbook readers try and like ebooks, they'll shift from buying pbooks to buying ebooks. Okay, so every ebook sale is a lost pbook sale, but as long as people are making their margins everyone is happy.

But now you have a lot more readers willing to read ebooks. And maybe they think ebooks shouldn't cost as much as pbooks, or they resent the DRM (you'll find many of them here). They'll also become more savvy to the nature of ebooks. And a lot more of them will learn that they can just get pirated ebooks for free. After all, they paid $300 for their reader!

So as pbook sales shift to ebook sales, a growing percentage is "lost' due to ebook piracy. Yes, free ebooks, unrestrictive DRM, etc. help encourage sales in other ways. But that works for Baen whilst piracy is relatively low. Let's see how it works when piracy is relatively high. It's like comparing the impact of piracy in the music industry in 1990 vs 2000. Ebooks are still at the 1990 stage.

So you're saying that specifically MR members are the kind of people who would and thus will become pirates?

Anyway, your "Dramatization of what will be happening in just a few years time" reads like a Dan Brown novel.

[sirbruce]

Originally Posted by tirsales

Well - see music, mp3-player and music piracy..

And see the comments I already made before, where the music industry figured out how everyone could make money on $1.00 MP3s but I'm not convincced the ebook industry can find an equivalent price point.

Originally Posted by tirsales

Well - provide some proof that piracy was hindering the music industry in the year 2000. I did not find a single study indicating this - but multiple stating a quite different result.

Then you're probably an old time pro-piracy person who didn't understand the nature of the business to begin with. In any case, I'm not going to take the several weeks it would take to try to convince you of that.

Originally Posted by tirsales

Yes, books and music are not the same - still the same (provide high quality, good service, reasonable pricing) is true for music and books - after all I could get the same music for free (whether I listen to it only once or multiple times is irrelevant - and concert tickets are not that high a factor).

Concert tickets are a major factor, as it gives music artists a revenue stream that authors do not have. The pricing and convenience are the other factor; mp3s are at a price where if you like it it's easy enough to just buy it, rather than take the time to pirate it; no one knows if such a price point is achievable for ebooks.

[tirsales]

Originally Posted by sirbruce

And see the comments I already made before, where the music industry figured out how everyone could make money on $1.00 MP3s but I'm not convincced the ebook industry can find an equivalent price point.

I am convinced of this. It will probably not be $1, but some point will be found - most people are willing to pay certain sums for service, quality and (above all) legality.

Then you're probably an old time pro-piracy person who didn't understand the nature of the business to begin with. In any case, I'm not going to take the several weeks it would take to try to convince you of that.

Ad hominem?

Concert tickets are a major factor, as it gives music artists a revenue stream that authors do not have. The pricing and convenience are the other factor; mp3s are at a price where if you like it it's easy enough to just buy it, rather than take the time to pirate it; no one knows if such a price point is achievable for ebooks.

Well - just give it a try. As you said Booken found a price that worked for them. eBook piracy might not be common for itself - but the technology is present, thus it would be used if there was an interest in a real black market.
--edit:
The eBook-market is getting larger and larger. As I said there already are more then enough books on the black market / p2p networks and the technology is freely available - and still the market is getting bigger.
Dont get me wrong - I am not pro-piracy. I am strongly against DRM and I am pro a fair market (fair for customers, authors, shops and publishers).

[sirbruce]

Originally Posted by zerospinboson

So you're saying that specifically MR members are the kind of people who would and thus will become pirates?

I wasn't disparaging anyone here (I've pirated ebooks myself); I'm just pointing out that there are several people here who complain about pricing and DRM. How many more will there be when the "average joe" is dealing with these issues on their ereader? Services like Hulu and Video On Demand and now even Amazon's Video Service came online specifically to capture people who would otherwise be pirating those videos via BitTorrent, YouTube, etc. I just don't think we can truly say yet if the majority of pbook readers would accept a $5 ebook over a $0 pirated copy, or that the publishing industry can survive with $5 ebooks.

Originally Posted by zerospinboson

Anyway, your "Dramatization of what will be happening in just a few years time" reads like a Dan Brown novel.

Thanks! I think...

[sirbruce]

Originally Posted by tirsales

Well - just give it a try.

Hey, I'm on board with ebooks. I'm just pragmatic when it comes to my fellow man. Hope for the best; prepare for the worst!

[tirsales]

Originally Posted by sirbruce

Hey, I'm on board with ebooks. I'm just pragmatic when it comes to my fellow man. Hope for the best; prepare for the worst!

Jepp, thats why I am actively against DRM

[netseeker]

Originally Posted by sirbruce

Concert tickets are a major factor, as it gives music artists a revenue stream that authors do not have.

Even if i agree with a lot of your statements here i have to disagree on this one. Well, maybe...i'm not sure...let's see what you think about it:
I know there were (and are) bands who lived from the revenue of concert tickets and the merchandise sales in those concerts. (Ramones for example)
Authors can (under certain circumstances) get paid by publishers for book readings*. Isn't this compareable to the sales of concert tickets?

*book readings: i hope this is the right term, i mean when one or more authors do read in front of audience