Pirate Bay founders found guilty

[netseeker]

Originally Posted by sirbruce

I do too, but does such a price point exist for ebooks? We found it for music, but I'm not convinced it exists for ebooks. Authors don't have performance venues to supplement reduced royalties. There are many authors leaving the business *today* because they can't make enough money anymore, even though their writing is just as good as it used to be.

Agreed, most of the authors don't get much money for their works and many of them do suffer from piracy. But piracy en masse is just one answer to a market which does ignore its consuments. Imho the publishing houses and distributors are actively creating the problem, not the authors. And the authors should be interested in a fair and functional market. Consumers and authors don't bring enough pressure to bear on the publishing houses and distributors at the moment. Hopefully this will change in the near future.

[Xenophon]

Originally Posted by sirbruce

I do too, but does such a price point exist for ebooks? We found it for music, but I'm not convinced it exists for ebooks. Authors don't have performance venues to supplement reduced royalties. There are many authors leaving the business *today* because they can't make enough money anymore, even though their writing is just as good as it used to be.

Real-world experience suggests that $6 per book (quantity one) with discounts by way of bundles, multi-format support, and no DRM is sufficient to deter piracy. While simultaneously giving authors a royalty that is between that for Trade Paperback (that's the big expensive paperbacks) and hardcover and also giving the publisher a higher profit margin than they get from a paper sale. And that $6 per book is right from the start -- even when the book first comes out in hardcover.

That's the Baen Books approach. It's been working well -- ebook sales are larger than all non-US paper sales combined (Canada included), and are growing a good deal faster than paper sales. And paper sales are growing too. Even in the current downturn, where publishing is hurting and sales are down.

The business model is out there; it seems to work fine. I am mystified why other publishers don't do the same.

Xenophon

P.S. My net cost per book from Baen after all bundle discounts and excluding titles purchased more than once (due to bundles) is around $3.40.

[sirbruce]

It may be working for Baen and some of their authors at the moment. But all of those rely on physical sales too. If more people move to ebooks, more will discover the ability to pirate ebooks -- and then they'll just do that, and rarely buy at all, even if the ebook is cheaper than they were buying before. That is my fear, anyway.

Let me also point out that Baen still rejects lots of good books from new authors every year. They could "easily" publish all of those in ebook form and see what sells and what doesn't, yet they still rely on physical sales for their authors. It's not just a quality issue.

[Sonist]

Originally Posted by Steve Jordan

Right idea... though I'd amend it to say that the price only has to be acceptable to consumers, no matter how it accurately reflects savings to publishers, in order to create good sales. Then it's up to the publishers to adjust their internal models to allow them to profit at that price point... something no publisher wants to have to do, but will find they have little choice in the matter.

I agree "that the price only has to be acceptable to consumers" and stand corrected (didn't word my initial statement too well:-)

[Greg Anos]

Originally Posted by netseeker

Agreed, most of the authors don't get much money for their works and many of them do suffer from piracy. But piracy en masse is just one answer to a market which does ignore its consuments. Imho the publishing houses and distributors are actively creating the problem, not the authors. And the authors should be interested in a fair and functional market. Consumers and authors don't bring enough pressure to bear on the publishing houses and distributors at the moment. Hopefully this will change in the near future.

I'm going to raise hackles with this but.....Maybe too many writers? Writing has a low barrier of entry, and there is enormous amounts of books already in existance, both current and in the past (more readily available used today than any time in the past). Factor in less reading time because of so many other options....Too many writers (living and dead) chasing too few readers?

[igorsk]

Originally Posted by sirbruce

Let me also point out that Baen still rejects lots of good books from new authors every year. They could "easily" publish all of those in ebook form and see what sells and what doesn't, yet they still rely on physical sales for their authors. It's not just a quality issue.

No, they couldn't "easily" publish much more books without dropping the quality significantly. They have a pretty small editing staff and they have their hands full as is. What they can do, however, is put on Webscriptions books from other smaller publishers (E-Reads, Night Shade, Subterranean) and "reprints" of older SF, such as Leigh Brackett/Edmond Hamilton bundles, CoDominium/Pournelle Continuum, Jupiter Collection, John Grimes bundles, Liaden Universe and so on. Also, I know of at least one originally Baen book which was published E only (The Guns of Two-Space), apparently due to disappointing paper sales of the first book in series. It's possible there are others.

[sirbruce]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

I'm going to raise hackles with this but.....Maybe too many writers? Writing has a low barrier of entry, and there is enormous amounts of books already in existance, both current and in the past (more readily available used today than any time in the past). Factor in less reading time because of so many other options....Too many writers (living and dead) chasing too few readers?

Too few readers, to be sure. Too many writers may be technically accurate but I don't think that's a situation we want to be in, do we? Book sales continue to fall, regardless of the number of authors. (Unless you're writing a fantasy romance with vampires/werewolves/etc.)

[sirbruce]

Originally Posted by igorsk

No, they couldn't "easily" publish much more books without dropping the quality significantly.

That's just not true. I've read their boards; they pass on a lot of stuff in the slush pile that they believe would sell elsewhere but which they don't want to take a risk on or don't want to release in competition with books already in their established stable of authors. But I did put "easily" in quotes for a reason. My point was, while Baen may be great, they are hardly a cure for any author suffering due to the industry's ongoing problems the past decade.

[Greg Anos]

Originally Posted by sirbruce

Too few readers, to be sure. Too many writers may be technically accurate but I don't think that's a situation we want to be in, do we? Book sales continue to fall, regardless of the number of authors. (Unless you're writing a fantasy romance with vampires/werewolves/etc.)

Profesional writing is a business. And life in a shrinking business niche is a bear, no matter what niche its in. (Ask anybody in a outsourced business niche)

[Moejoe]

Originally Posted by sirbruce

(Unless you're writing a fantasy romance with vampires/werewolves/etc.)

That happened in the late 70's, early 80's I seem to recall. They were categorised as "Gothics", and they were the trend at the time. I know of at least one best-selling author, Dean Koontz, who wrote a good few of these. I think these kind of trends are cyclical.

[sirbruce]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

Profesional writing is a business. And life in a shrinking business niche is a bear, no matter what niche its in. (Ask anybody in a outsourced business niche)

Yeah, but books aren't a shrinking niche like buggy whip manufacturers. Or are they? I'm a victim of the media age too and visual experiences like movies, television, streaming Internet video, and video games have pulled me away from reading as much as I used to. On the other hand, I believe the world has more literate people now than ever before, and that's not just counting Chinese. Books are still relevant; we just have to get people in the habit of reading again. I'm hoping ebooks will help with that.

[Xenophon]

Originally Posted by sirbruce

It may be working for Baen and some of their authors at the moment. But all of those rely on physical sales too. If more people move to ebooks, more will discover the ability to pirate ebooks -- and then they'll just do that, and rarely buy at all, even if the ebook is cheaper than they were buying before. That is my fear, anyway.

Their prices are such that they have no reason to feel bad if their sales move to electronic form -- rather the contrary, in fact. Authors and publisher would all make more money (in total) that way.

As for relying on physical sales, well sure! Of course they "rely on physical sales" -- that's where the volume is right now. Revenue-wise, eSales appear to be somewhere between 10% and 20% of total volume. That's not bad -- in fact it's rather better than anyone else in fiction publishing -- but it's not enough to run the company, or for the authors to pay their bills on.

Originally Posted by sirbruce

Let me also point out that Baen still rejects lots of good books from new authors every year. They could "easily" publish all of those in ebook form and see what sells and what doesn't, yet they still rely on physical sales for their authors. It's not just a quality issue.

Actually, it wouldn't be so easy. The issue is one of maintaining the brand. Here's the conundrum:
Baen's paper distribution is (exclusively) through Simon and Schuster. S&S gives them a certain number of book slots per month (mixed between hardcover and paperback). This is important enough to repeat: the number of slots is controlled by S&S, not by Baen. And the number of slots acts as an absolute limit on Baen's output in paper.

There are several different approaches to working around this limit. Each approach has significant problems to go along with its advantages.

• Publish additional "eBook only" titles. The problem here is that eBook sales run less than 20% of paper sales (measured by revenue to the publisher and authors, not by copies sold, by the way). This approach has some promise and charm, but would put serious downwards pressure on advances, and might not be able to cover the fixed costs (e.g. slush-pile diving, another editor(!), copy-editing, art, and on and on). Further, how many authors and agents would be satisfied with a 5x hit on their potential sales? I can see it now: "A contract for eBook only? Nah... I'll shop it to another publisher." One method for making this approach viable is to use it to extend their re-issues of the "good old stuff." And they've been doing exactly that. This won't be an attractive approach for new books until electronic sales start to look more like... half of total revenue, or thereabouts.
• Add another "line" of books; call it "Baen Presents" or something like that. The risk here is one of market perception. But the perception that matters isn't that of the readers, but is rather the perception of the buyers for the big bookstore chains, the big distributors, and Amazon. The concern is that whatever you put in that new line would be viewed as "It must not be any good, or they'd have put it in the main line of books." Any successful launch of another line must somehow avoid this problem. One possible avenue: make the new line clearly distinct from the old -- SF & Fantasy mysteries rather than general SF/Fantasy, for example. But whatever approach they take, problems of brand dilution are a very real concern. Especially since the reputation of their brand is probably their single most valuable asset.
• Arm-wrestle with S&S for more slots. They've done this. Baen is now routinely putting out two or three more books each month than they did six or seven years ago. I presume that Toni Weisskopf is continuing to try to get more book slots. This approach is more incremental. It's also slower, because Baen's only leverage is to educate S&S about why letting Baen have more slots is good business for S&S.

And remember -- any approach that increases Baen's publishing output involves an increase in fixed costs; those costs must be covered or the company gets into big trouble. One cost of particular concern is head-count of full-time employees -- especially editors. Baen doesn't have many full-time people, so adding even one more is a substantial percentage increase in payroll. Which means that there'd better be a substantial increase in revenue to go with it.

I am not an insider at Baen -- I hang out in the online community at Baen's Bar, and pay attention when actual insiders speak. The above is my best understanding of some of the issues and some of the possible approaches to expansion. There are probably other possible approaches, and other issues. These are the ones I've seen discussed at the Bar over the last few years.

The overall point I'm trying to make is this: it may seem simple at first blush, but there are a ton of issues that are not simple to sort out.


Xenophon

[sirbruce]

Originally Posted by Xenophon

The overall point I'm trying to make is this: it may seem simple at first blush, but there are a ton of issues that are not simple to sort out.

That's why I put "easily" in quotes. Bottom line: Baen's approach to ebooks may be great, but it doesn't solve most authors' primary problem.

[pdurrant]

Most authors do not live off their earning from writing books. They have other sources of income - jobs, spouses, pensions.

For a typical $7.99 paperback, authors earn $0.64. Getting 50% of a $1.00 ebook wouldn't be much less - hopefully more because of more copies sold.

But expecting the author to get $0.5 from a $1 ebook is unrealistic, unless they are selling directly. It's more likely that they'd get $1 from a $5 ebook. ($1.00 discount to retail $4 to customer, $1.50 to retailer, $1.50 to publisher, $1.00 to author)

Originally Posted by sirbruce

Most authors certainly can't live off the $1.00 ebook even if they get half the revenue.

[sirbruce]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

Most authors do not live off their earning from writing books. They have other sources of income - jobs, spouses, pensions.

Yes, but that was not the way it used to be. At least not for a writer who got published regularly. Writing short stories got Heinlein *out* of debt, not into it!