Will Paper books fade away?

[thibaulthalpern]

Yet, we cannot deny that the pen and handwriting is still with us since 1490.

Sonist, if you think 50 years from now we'll think of you as the "papyrus guy" think again.

519 years later (from 1490), handwriting is still with us and so is a form of parchment which we call paper. And let's not forget that Chinese have been using paper much earlier than that and the brush is still used for calligraphy. It's not extinct. It's part of our modern world.

This is not to say that things will never change. Change has indeed occurred but not to the extent of the extinction of manual/physical/no-digital forms of print communication.

I also don't think Elfwreck is saying paper is disappearing or that s/he wishes it to disappear. The last paragraph says s/he doesn't see paper being entirely replaced.

[Dr. Drib]

No.



Don

[dmaul1114]

Those are very good points Dr. Drib.

There are definitely certain professions that more or less require paper in certain instances.

Some will get a way from paper like doctor's offices--the doctor I go to years ago scrapped paper files and uses a tablet PC to pull up files, send prescriptions to the pharmacy etc. Though they still have printers to sometimes printout prescriptions, referrals etc.

But for things like field anthropology, journalism etc. a notepad is more practical (doesn't need electricity, is less obtrusive than a gadget etc). And for me the big hurdle is tablet writing technology to improve to a point were I can write small and legibly on a portable tablet device. I struggle even on full size tablet PC, so I'm a real lost cause on palm pilots etc.

[desertgrandma]

Originally Posted by thibaulthalpern

desertgrandma, I think I want to extend your point. And here it is what I read into what you're saying:

there is NO REASON to wholeheartedly adopt electronics for EVERYTHING when there isn't a real reason to aside from the desire that one may want everything to be electronics.

My point? It's not always personal preference that dictates what can or cannot be used. Social and physical conditions play a role in that too.

Yes, thank you.

Regardless of what some make think of "detrimental environmental practices", people need to get out from behind their desks, and try living in the real world.

[Sonist]

Originally Posted by desertgrandma

... people need to get out from behind their desks, and try living in the real world.

O.K., but in what century?

[Elfwreck]

Teaching children to write w/o paper: Magic slate can be adapted to classroom use. And unlike dry-erase boards (also possible), they're very cheap; a kid who goes through one a week (damaged or lost) may still be ahead of paper use in costs.

I suspect paper will be around for a long time--while digital devices are more economical in the long run, there won't be any immediate rush to supply them to people living in poverty now, who can afford paper (some paper, anyway) but can't make the jump to computers or PDAs, especially not for every member of the family. And on the technological side, DRM and proprietary software issues are going to continue to be a stumbling block for the ease of sharing that's involved in paper. (And then there's the copyright mess. You can hand someone a book, or hand it around to a group, and say "look at page 37." We don't have a digital way to do the same--they each wind up with a copy, rather than the "original" changing hands.)

That said, I think Steve's mostly right--we need to eliminate paper as the backbone of information exchange. I think it'll remain for art purposes, and for certain kinds of archiving (but not most archiving), and for personal sentimental activity (letter-writing's not going to vanish, but it could become a rare affectation rather than a business standard), and for children's activities (which may fall under "art purposes").

And you can put a notepad of paper in your winter cabin, and it still works four years later, even if the power is out. It'll be a *long* time before we can say that about any common electronic device; the cheap, solar-powered laptop is quite a while away. And while computer files can be annotated, signed, attached to each other, and marked "IMPORTANT!!", it's not always simple or quick to do so, and the different types of files mean everyone needs different methods to do these things that are easy to do with paper. Making electronic files as convenient as paper (or almost as convenient, with their own advantages, like searchability) is a long way off.

But "a long way off" doesn't mean "never." And we cannot treat paper like it's an infinite resource--it isn't. One of the biggest problems in economic evaluations of methods and resources is the assumption that "raw materials"--trees, oil, rocks, water--are free; they only cost what it takes you in tools & labor to fetch them. There's no cost in the item itself, and its destruction is not counted as a loss.

The only cost the producer in tools & labor--but the tree milled for paper can't be milled again tomorrow, or next year. Nor the year after. And recycling, while admirable, is a shrinking resource pool; we lose some every time.

[DaleDe]

I was noticing that on the Today show (NBC in the mornings) they still hold a stack of papers in their hands while presenting news and doing interviews. Even when out in the wind where they have to keep rearranging them to see their notes. Wouldn't this be a great application for an eBook Reader?

Dale

[Sonist]

Originally Posted by DaleDe

I was noticing that on the Today show (NBC in the mornings) they still hold a stack of papers in their hands while presenting news and doing interviews. Even when out in the wind where they have to keep rearranging them to see their notes. Wouldn't this be a great application for an eBook Reader?

Dale

Heh, they are just trying to appear intelligent and impress the viewers, that's why the stack of papers.

In reality, they can't read, and the papers have only smiley faces on them, to remind them to grin at the camera.

An eBook reader wouldn't have the same cache, since most of those watching have never seen one, and wouldn't be as impressed as by a stack of papers.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by Elfwreck

And we cannot treat paper like it's an infinite resource--it isn't. One of the biggest problems in economic evaluations of methods and resources is the assumption that "raw materials"--trees, oil, rocks, water--are free; they only cost what it takes you in tools & labor to fetch them. There's no cost in the item itself, and its destruction is not counted as a loss.

The only cost the producer in tools & labor--but the tree milled for paper can't be milled again tomorrow, or next year. Nor the year after. And recycling, while admirable, is a shrinking resource pool; we lose some every time.

But of course trees can be replanted. The key is to just keep paper use (and other uses of wood) at a level that is sustainable.

Ebooks will help with that. Paper doesn't have to go away (and won't go away) but it's use should (and will) get scaled back as people adopt electronic alternatives for various purposes and more people recycle.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by DaleDe

I was noticing that on the Today show (NBC in the mornings) they still hold a stack of papers in their hands while presenting news and doing interviews. Even when out in the wind where they have to keep rearranging them to see their notes. Wouldn't this be a great application for an eBook Reader?

Dale

I think that's a problem of page refresh rates, being able to look at multiple pages at once, or nearly instantly get to a particular document while on camera, or quickly flip through to find the one you need etc.

Ereader tech isn't quite there yet for those kind of purposes.

[DaleDe]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

I think that's a problem of page refresh rates, being able to look at multiple pages at once, or nearly instantly get to a particular document while on camera, or quickly flip through to find the one you need etc.

Ereader tech isn't quite there yet for those kind of purposes.

Interesting point. Isn't that what bookmarks are for?

Dale

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by DaleDe

Interesting point. Isn't that what bookmarks are for?

Dale

It's pretty slow to pull up books marks on an ereader at least on the ones I've used (Kindle 1 and Sony 505).

Much slower than flipping through a stack of notes. Or flipping to a page in a printout or book with a post it flag or real bookmark stuck in.

You can do that nearly instantly (which is key for people on camera) while it takes several seconds to get into the menu, go to book marks, click the one you want and wait for it to display the page etc.

I don't know that ereaders will ever be faster than paper for that. They will get better, but there will always be a menu to access etc. versus just instantly going to a real bookmarked or flagged page.

[Elfwreck]

Originally Posted by DaleDe

Interesting point. Isn't that what bookmarks are for?

Dale

There isn't any simple digital equivalent of "hold these three pages open with your fingers so you can flip back & forth between them." There are bookmarks, but no way of tagging a set of bookmarks as "just for this session" while ignoring other, more permanent, bookmarks.

That's one of the digital functions that'll be needed for getting more people to switch from paper to digital files for regular use.

[Sweetpea]

Originally Posted by thibaulthalpern

Let's take a look a a map of light pollution. Here, you can tell immediately where in the world electricity is easily accessible and where it is a rare resource

You have a point there, but also note that those areas do have plenty of sunshine. A small solar charger would be a great asset there.

Originally Posted by thibaulthalpern

When my then partner came to visit me while I was doing fieldwork in West Africa, he carried with him his American Express card. He thought that like in Europe, America, his Platinum AmEx card could "save" him. He has been in many situations when travelling around Europe and America where a phone call to AmEx would allow him to get the help he needed--extra money, a place to stay, travel aid, etc.

I'd bring a solar charger, personally ...

(hey, when you're backpacking, or biking, and only sleep in a small tent, without electricity, those things become important! I have to keep my photo camera working and my ebook reader!)

Originally Posted by DaleDe

I was noticing that on the Today show (NBC in the mornings) they still hold a stack of papers in their hands while presenting news and doing interviews. Even when out in the wind where they have to keep rearranging them to see their notes. Wouldn't this be a great application for an eBook Reader?

Dale

They only need those stacks of paper to keep their hands busy... It could become embarrassing otherwise...

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by Sweetpea

They only need those stacks of paper to keep their hands busy... It could become embarrassing otherwise...

They're also to be fall backs if the teleprompter quits working.