Who will fill the gap if B&N collapses

[darryl]

Nate posted an interesting article on his blog:

https://the-digital-reader.com/2017/...ll-print-dead/

PG over at the Passive Voice linked to and quoted Nate's article, and expanded upon it, adding his thoughts on the collapse of Borders as it applied to Nate's premise. Nate summed this up in a single sentence.

The major publishers are dead because they bet against digital, which is the future.

The Passive Voice link, to which I contributed in the comments, is here:

http://www.thepassivevoice.com/2017/...print-is-dead/

This prompted me to give the subject a little thought. Many have been predicting the demise of B&N for some time, and each subsequent event seems to add to such speculation. The collapse of B&N would of course be a cataclysm for not only the US brick and mortar book retailing industry, but also for the Publishers, who may lose at one stroke much of their print distribution network in the United States.

Also, of course, Amazon has been opening retail stores, and has announced their intention to open more after what seems to have been some successful real world testing of the concept. There has been much speculation on Amazon's reasons for this. No consensus arose, but a quite popular explanation was that at least one major reason was for Amazon to collect more information about customers, as well as promote its products.

But, if the speculation about B&N is correct, there may soon be a huge vacuum in the US brick and mortar retail book industry. And nature, it is said, abhors a vacuum. But it is not time for the supporters of Indie book stores to rejoice at the thought of a coming renaissance for their much beloved shops. It is surely naive to believe that Amazon has failed to see the same signs as us mere mortals, and likely much earlier. So we have a huge cashed-up online retailer which has been opening physical book stores and announced its intention to open more. At around the same time as a huge opportunity for retail brick and mortar book stores is, at least in my inexpert view, likely to arise. Coincidence? Luck? Or is Amazon about to fill some or most of the coming vacuum? The only reason I can think of for them not doing so is if they feel there are anti-trust concerns.

[GlenBarrington]

I can't remember the last time I was in a Barnes and Noble. It isn't just easier to browse Amazon for books, it is more fun too!

I just don't buy the idea that if B&N folds, that something will come along to replace it. I think Amazon has already invented the book store's replacement, and it's called the online Kindle ebook environment. I feel no nostalgia for the brick and mortar book store.

I suspect that the B&M Amazon shops will be less of a book shop than they will be a marketing portal to the entire Amazon environment. Perhaps it will be a way to implement a local pick up shipping scheme. It might be possible to 'browse' the bookshelves, but that is the way Amazon will keep you entertained and engaged while the shop clerk is in the back to get your package.

[Apache]

Maybe the fact that Toys R Us is going out of business will save B&N.
Apache

[darryl]

@Apache. You made me laugh. Pigs might fly. @Glen Barrington. My attitude to B&M book stores is much the same as yours. Amazon online wins hands down. The biggest effect of Amazon stores replacing a reasonable number of B&M stores will be on the print distribution network of the big traditioal publishers and those other businesses which are part of that infrastructure. Even companies like Ingram Spark should be getting nervous. The large traditional publishers will become significantly more dependant on Amazon. Also, many of the traditional promotional tricks likely won't work. Amazon physical stores are unlikely to take money for prominent placement of tradpub books. And Amazon imprint titles and the best selling self-published titles are suddenly going to reach a much wider audience.

Your other points are good ones. I don't live in the US and have never had the pleasure of visting an Amazon books store, but my understanding is that they stock a relatively small number of titles carefully selected using their extensive online data for the area. I also understand stock turns over fast. Early criticism was levelled at these shops for the relatively paltry number of books carried. However, I posted once before that perhaps a better way to look at an Amazon store was as if there was a transparent wall at the back looking into an Amazon warehouse with just about every book you could want available. In cities with Amazon warehouses close by it is not inconceivable that you could order a book not on the premises, go off and have a coffee and cake for an hour and come back to pick up your book. And yes, Amazon stores promote their hardware, promote books and other products, promote Prime Membership. The potential advantage of even one such store in each large US City are enormous.

[DiapDealer]

The vacuum has already been present for years. B&N B&M stores have been irrelevant for a long time now.

[fjtorres]

To a large extent, Amazon is replicating the old B. Dalton model as an added front-end to their online bookselling business.

Nothing prevents Ingram or Baker & Taylor from doing the same.
Or whoever buys up the back end of B&N under a hypothetical liquidation.
B&N itself could do it if they were willing to file chapter 11 reorganization to rebuild the company as a three tier retailer organized around their logistic backbone and regional warehouses.

A three tier B&N 2.0 would start with online, add maybe 50 large destination stores serving urban elites and a few hundred airport newstand-sized stores (maybe reviving the B.Dalton name) featuring new releases, local interest titles, and free next day delivery of special orders. The online and small stores would share pricing (a reason to brand them separately) while the destination stores could charge higher prices to account for their higher costs.

A really competent management team might even set up a franchise operation for the smaller storefront chain to rein in dreamers looking to start up local bookstores, providing them with training and a reliable, fast, and agile supply chain. Maybe even an entry to digital sales via a Kobo-like partnership program giving franchises kickbacks from ebook purchases via ereaders sold in-store.

Options exist.
What is needed is vision and willingness to move beyond "stock it and they will come".

DWS recently listed how WMG runs their associated stores profitably.

http://www.deanwesleysmith.com/how-t...store-in-2017/

B&M bookselling doesn't have to end in failure.

[darryl]

Originally Posted by DiapDealer

The vacuum has already been present for years. B&N B&M stores have been irrelevant for a long time now.

To us, perhaps. But according to this 2016 article:

Even on the brink of closing, Barnes & Noble still accounts for as much as 30 percent of all sales for some publishing houses.

Amazon no doubt accounts for a good deal of the rest.

[darryl]

@fjtorres. What you say in your last post is largely correct. But the more I look at the situation the more I think Amazon has predicted what is likely to happen well in advance and has positioned itself to take full advantage. That is not to say that good management adopting some of the tactics you have outlined and others could not frustrate Amazon to some extent. However, if Amazon's competitors do not do much better than they have in the past Amazon will likely come out the big winner. Whatever happens, it seems, Amazon will gain something. And, anti-trust concerns aside, Amazon is cashed-up.

I would add that Chris and Dean are excellent and realistic operators, as are Baen. I expect these types of businesses will always have a niche. The real challenge seems to be to the large publishers, Ingram Spark and Baker and Taylor. I just don't see B&N getting a sufficiently talented and visionary management team together, especially under Chapter i1. Jeff Bezos would struggle with this challenge. What they need is a miracle.

[DiapDealer]

Originally Posted by darryl

To us, perhaps. But according to this 2016 article.

I frankly don't believe the casually tossed out "30% of all sales" stat they're touting. Clearly define "all sales" and "some publishers" and I'll listen. *shrug*

The linked New Republic article also has a problem with tense. It should have been, "Book sales WERE driven by showrooming," not "Booksales are..." It's that exact kind of clinging to stale business paradigms by B&N management that has them on the ropes in the first place.

Not to say that Amazon won't cash in on B&N's failure ... why shouldn't they after all? I just believe that the current relevance/impact of B&N's B&M business is being overstated.

[Dutchbook]

Originally Posted by darryl

What they need is a miracle.

i disagree,

there will always be a market for specialty book stores and the B&N brand has a lot of familiarity. What they need to do is just scale down massively. Forego with the large shopping mall-like stores, just a 1200 square feet store in the 100 most populated cities in the US. Put a small corner for coffee and cake inside it, and you're done.

It's not rocket science. Bookstores across Europe managed to survive by adopting that formula, so why not B&N?

[Cinisajoy]

Is there really a vacuum? If I want popular books, I can go to Walmart or the grocery store. If I want specialty books, I can go to the specialty store.
If I lived in certain areas, half price books or books a million for the heavy reader.
For the voracious reader, thrift stores and libraries.

[ZodWallop]

Originally Posted by Cinisajoy

Is there really a vacuum? If I want popular books, I can go to Walmart or the grocery store.

Walmart/grocery store book sections have been shrinking rapidly (at least in my area). I expect soon they will be gone.

[Dr. Drib]

I think they should go ahead and collapse and close all their stores.

It happened to Borders, for example, and the 'bookstore world' didn't end.

Just let it happen.

[sakura-panda]

Barnes and Noble is the only store that my kids will actively ask to go to and the only store that they don't fuss and groan over when we announce we are going. (Well, that and the Lego Store, but the nearset Lego store is over an hour away and buried inside a mall. B&N can be seen from the road and they point out Every Single One.)

I think there is a place for B&M book stores. I understand why they are hard to stock, but I have been hoping that stores would come up with a way to balance electronic and traditional books in the same space. B&N seemed like they might, when they offered free NOOK book browsing inside their stores. (I could never do it, because of the constant interruptions; my kids like to share their finds with me, and with three of them, it's a non-stop merry go round of interruptions.)

The thing with B&N, is that they stores don't/can't match their own online prices, so whenever we find a book, I check B&N online, and if they are cheaper there, I order them, instead of purchasing in the store. That doesn't seem to be a good model for supporting b&m stores, does it? It's not like my account has a favorite store that gets credit for my purchases.

There is an independent bookstore two storefronts down from the studio where my kids get their music lessons; we stop in about twice a month or so. While the kids are browsing, I browse too and often find books that I want to buy for myself as an ebook. When I remember, I may eventrually buy it from Kobo -- using the affiliate link for my local independent bookstore -- but I wish I could just take the copy to the register with my kids' books and request the epub version and purchase them together. It would show those stores how much they could gain supporting ebooks, while continuing to attract customers that prefer browsing physical books. They would need to have support from an ebook retailer who was willing to give them a good incentive.

[Cinisajoy]

Originally Posted by ZodWallop

Walmart/grocery store book sections have been shrinking rapidly (at least in my area). I expect soon they will be gone.

Your post tells me one thing. People in your area don't buy books at Walmart.
Perhaps you do not understand how media is stocked at your local Walmart.
There is a company that does all of Walmart's media. They look at the demographics and what actually sells. We kept our tiny book and magazine section but they took out over 50% of the movies and TV shows. They just didn't sell well at that Walmart. The big seller there is video games. They also took out most of the computer games.
Note: The books are only the best sellers.

What I have noticed is Walmarts by the interstate have more media including books than in town Walmarts.
This is based on the extensive research of one person who has visited numerous Walmarts and has 4 in her area. North has better media, South and East are well stocked and have more choices in grocery. West is the little store where you might or might not get what you need. HEB moved into pretty much the next parking lot and is on the corner of two main streets. It is now easy to get into that Walmart, the HEB go early and hope for a parking place.