Cheaper e-books will kill us, says publisher

[Elfwreck]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

Apparently some of the music industry is starting to do what's necessary to survive. If only the book business could learn to think.....

The music industry has always been aware that it's selling a non-physical product in whatever physical package works best right now. The book industry, having been around much longer and never having had a non-physical industry to compete with*, has convinced itself that its products is books, not writing.

Now the concept of "written information" has been divorced from the media that carries it, and they're lost. Aside from the sheer technical aspects (e.g. setting up a workflow for conversion to ebook as well as to print, security to avoid piracy), their business models don't know how to handle digital products.

There's no spot in the model for selling "the unfinished version" (which is, up until recently, what the digital version in a publishing house was). And they don't want to sell "word-based content in various containers;" they want to sell books. Like they have for decades, sometimes approaching centuries.

However, the publication of "books" has pushed them into being the industry responsible for "ebooks" as well. And to do it well--as customers demand, or they'll go elsewhere--they'll need a complete overhaul of their business concept.


*They competed somewhat with storytellers and bards, but those were always considered transient; writing was considered a different form of info exchange.

[lilac_jive]

HarperCollins just posted a statement, they had a huge loss, but "some sectors were up." They didn't say what, but I wonder if one of those sectors was ebooks. I would presume so.

[Xenophon]

Originally Posted by Charbax

Publishers are not needed anymore.

Google Books will host and store the ebook released directly by the author to its public.

Authors will get paid directly by readers, supported by readers, and new Obama law should make it so that artists and authors are paid through an art tax based on the popularity and the quality of their work. Popularity can be very precisely measured using computer and Internet technology. Quality can be measured by a ratings system. Every rate for the stuff they like a lot, this way the system knows how to find out which authors are well liked and by how many readers.

Anyways publishers, distributors, book stores, book marketing and all that should just go away and do something else. They have become absolutely irrelevant.

I must say that I disagree very strongly with this view. The first and most important service provided (to us end-users -- readers) by publishers is that of filtering for quality. I've spent some time digging through the slush-pile at Baen books... you would not believe the incredible mind-numbing awfulness of the typical book there-in. Imagine the worst book you've ever read. Now make it 10 times worse than that! Be afraid, be very afraid. We're talking head-exploding-suckage on average, and it goes waaaaaay downhill from there! There are a few gems, but oh the pain it takes to find them...

Filtering the wheat from the chaff is a service that is very valuable indeed. The branding provided by publishers has real value -- not only to customers (it may not be to your taste, but it won't be like the typical slush-pile stuff), but also to authors. After all, an author whose book has made it to publication at any of the various fiction-publishing houses can at least count on the publisher's reputation to help them make it into bookstores and libraries. It may not sell well, but at least there's a chance.

Beyond the 'quality filtering', there's editing, proof-reading, marketing, distribution, web-sites, publicity, art-work, etc. etc. The need for these services will not go away in the future.

As to your 'new Obama law', well, let's just say that I've rarely met a government program that failed to make things worse than when we lacked the program. I'd be that you can be pretty sure that making payment to authors a political football instead of a market mechanism would lead to even more suckage than the current system. Do you really trust the bozos in Washington? That's a non-partisan sentiment, by the way -- I thought the previous crew were bozos too!.


Xenophon

P.S. Is my political cynicism showing?

[Greg Anos]

Originally Posted by Xenophon

I must say that I disagree very strongly with this view. The first and most important service provided (to us end-users -- readers) by publishers is that of filtering for quality. I've spent some time digging through the slush-pile at Baen books... you would not believe the incredible mind-numbing awfulness of the typical book there-in. Imagine the worst book you've ever read. Now make it 10 times worse than that! Be afraid, be very afraid. We're talking head-exploding-suckage on average, and it goes waaaaaay downhill from there! There are a few gems, but oh the pain it takes to find them...

Filtering the wheat from the chaff is a service that is very valuable indeed. The branding provided by publishers has real value -- not only to customers (it may not be to your taste, but it won't be like the typical slush-pile stuff), but also to authors. After all, an author whose book has made it to publication at any of the various fiction-publishing houses can at least count on the publisher's reputation to help them make it into bookstores and libraries. It may not sell well, but at least there's a chance.

Beyond the 'quality filtering', there's editing, proof-reading, marketing, distribution, web-sites, publicity, art-work, etc. etc. The need for these services will not go away in the future.

As to your 'new Obama law', well, let's just say that I've rarely met a government program that failed to make things worse than when we lacked the program. I'd be that you can be pretty sure that making payment to authors a political football instead of a market mechanism would lead to even more suckage than the current system. Do you really trust the bozos in Washington? That's a non-partisan sentiment, by the way -- I thought the previous crew were bozos too!.


Xenophon

P.S. Is my political cynicism showing?

No, just the truth....

I want publisher to succeed. They already have a real, live, hair-on-the-chest model to look at. Just clone Baen. Or even better, use Baen as a storefront. Baen already have the market acceptance. I just don't think it's going to happen. I think that the current publishers would rather fail that change. If so, a new publishing structure will emerge out of the rubble, the same way a new structure is finally emerging for the music industry. The real people who will be hurt are the authors. As usual.

[Alisa]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

No, just the truth....

I want publisher to succeed. They already have a real, live, hair-on-the-chest model to look at. Just clone Baen. Or even better, use Baen as a storefront. Baen already have the market acceptance. I just don't think it's going to happen. I think that the current publishers would rather fail that change. If so, a new publishing structure will emerge out of the rubble, the same way a new structure is finally emerging for the music industry. The real people who will be hurt are the authors. As usual.

I don't think most publishers have the brand presence with consumers to warrant running their own stores. Genre publishers like Baen and Harlequin have a lot of visibility with book buyers. I mostly read what is usually categorized as "literary fiction". I couldn't tell you who published the book I'm reading right now or the last one I read, either. I don't know and I don't care. I want to go to a book store and find the book I'm looking for or browse for inspiration from a variety of sources. I don't want to go to five different websites. I think most of them need to focus on making good books like they always have and just distribute them to other sellers. I would love to see the balance sheet for their web stores. I bet they spend tons more the Baen and have far less to show for it.

[ficbot]

I think it is a false assumption to assume that any e-sale replaces a print sale. I know that I, for one, have never bought a hardcover book in my life. It is too expensive. If hardcover is my only choice, I get it from the library.

Get the price down to my 'impulse buy' level otoh and I will buy instead of borrowing---moreso with ebooks than with paperbacks because I don't have to worry about storing the physical book when I am done. I love books, but have limited space to store them so I reserve my purchases of print books to things like fitness books or cookbooks where I need to see the whole page at once and it is worth it to me to have it on paper.

So for me, for fiction anyway, the equation is not 'p-book or e-book' it's 'nothing of e-book.' In which case, having an affordable e-version means they get a sale where previously they would have no sale at all.

[BuddyBoy]

Originally Posted by ficbot

I think it is a false assumption to assume that any e-sale replaces a print sale. I know that I, for one, have never bought a hardcover book in my life. It is too expensive. If hardcover is my only choice, I get it from the library.

Just to clarify, I never implied a 1-to-1 relationship between ebooks sold and pbooks not sold, just a percentage likelihood. How close that reached or surpasses 1:1 depends on both the likelihood of ebook buyers to purchase paper or not, and the likelihood of ebook downloaders to have purchased paper or not.

[BuddyBoy]

Originally Posted by zyzzyva57

This publisher is simply refusing to acknowledge the old adage (besides Location, Location, Location): It is about Volume (study Walmart)--MOVE THE PRODUCT AND STOP TRYING TO BULK THE TREND

One of Microsoft's big problem is trying to bulk the trend, e.g., IE vs FireFox

Not trying to be pedantic, but the term you're looking for is buck the trend, not bulk the trend.

Regarding your argument, before any published can try to make it up on volume, they're going to need a heck of a lot of more folks out there using ereaders. The day will come, I'm sure of it, but I think it may be up to a decade away.

Nine years ago, I was paying close to hardcover list prices for each ebook for my Rocket. Nowdays, I get them for a lot loss. Personally, I'm just happy if they cost less than the cheapest new paper copy of a book.

[BuddyBoy]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

Remember, no matter what they say, people don't want the truth, just their prejudices reinforced. -RSE

And with my hearty and wry agreement to this sage piece of advice, I depart this topic for yet another few years. It is hoped that by the time it comes around again, eBooks will be cheaper still and have continued to buck the trend of paper books, which in contrast seen to be becoming ever more expensive.

[HarryT]

Originally Posted by Xenophon

Note that Baen/Webscriptions sell DRM-free eBooks for $6.00 each even when those books first come out in hardcover! And their average selling price is actually lower than $6 due to bundles and other discounts. And yes, they are profitable.

Xenophon

But they also sell "ARC" ("Advance Reader Copies"?) versions earlier, for many books, at a much higher price. One might regard those as being equivalent to the "hardback" release.

[pdurrant]

Yes, the eARCs are expensive (for Baen) at $15 each. But they are refreshing honest about why they're offering them. Here's a quote or two from emails announcing eARC availability:

"You can do better ($6.00) by waiting, but if you are a true Weber and Honor Harrington addict we want to take advantage of you. Order At All Costs, AKA Honor #11 now instead of when it debuts as a WebScription title, (August 2005)"

"In the interests of maximizing the exploitation of our base audience (we've heard the word "profit" used in this context) and supporting their continued addiction to ebooks we have released two new eARCs for your enjoyment."

eARCs as electronic hardcovers? Hmmm... perhaps so. Occassionally, getting the book two to three months ahead of the hardback/ebook release is worth the money. I'm certainly a lot happier to pay 'hardback' price for an eBook when it offers something more than the paper version (in this case, earlier access).

Originally Posted by HarryT

But they also sell "ARC" ("Advance Reader Copies"?) versions earlier, for many books, at a much higher price. One might regard those as being equivalent to the "hardback" release.

[HarryT]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

eARCs as electronic hardcovers? Hmmm... perhaps so. Occassionally, getting the book two to three months ahead of the hardback/ebook release is worth the money. I'm certainly a lot happier to pay 'hardback' price for an eBook when it offers something more than the paper version (in this case, earlier access).

But isn't that also true of pBooks? One can buy the hardback at a higher price, or wait a year and buy the paperback at a lower price. The choice is yours.

[pdurrant]

I meant that if both are available at the same time, I'm not happy paying the same (or sometimes more) for an eBook as for a hardback. However, if the ebook is available some months before the hardback, then I feel it is reasonable, which is why I don't mind Baen's eARC pricing.

On hardback vs paperback, there's a big difference in the object, apart from the timing.

Baen's pricing works like this for books that are eARC, Hardback/ebook, Paperback/ebook:

-3 months: eARC, $15
-2 weeks: ebook, $6
Publish date: Hardback: $25 (discounted to $16.50)
+1 year: Paperback: $8

If only all publishers did this, with no DRM. Come to that, bearing in mind that Baen's ebook prices are solid with no discounts built in for retailers like fictionwise, I'd be very happy enough with

Publish date: Hardback: $25 discounted to $16.50, ebook: $10 discounted to $8
+1 year: Paperback: $8, ebook: $6, discounted to $5

I'm really not happy with
Publish Date: Hardback $25 discounted to $16.50
+1 month: eBook $25, discounted to $21.25
+1 year: Paperback $8
+1 year and some random time: ebook: $8, discounted to $7.50


[Perhaps I should have put this in the vent and rant thread!]

Originally Posted by HarryT

But isn't that also true of pBooks? One can buy the hardback at a higher price, or wait a year and buy the paperback at a lower price. The choice is yours.

[roger64]

I think Mr Justus is not to be underestimated.

I am pretty sure he knows very well what the future is going to be but for him a year is a year and whatever delay he can get is welcome. So he made us enjoy his well-oiled speech that he is probably serving as well to politics and he does not care a farthing if it sounds true or not. It's just a specious argument so that non-technical politics can endorse it without offending the public. In French we call this "langue de bois". Nothing to hope from this kind of people. But like everybody else in this forum I am sure too that , whatever he tries to do to put brakes to an unstoppable evolution, in very few years he will have to adapt, willy nilly.

[zerospinboson]

hm.. lots of rehashing going on in this thread, and lots of responding in general, considering the referenced interview has almost no content to speak of, apart from telling us that "they're afraid" and don't really know how or why.