Trans-Pacific Partnership to Increase Copyright Term in Six Nations

[HarryT]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

Why have they been extended at all? As the old movie line said..."Follow the money..."

Obviously it is for commercial reasons, but I see no political will (in Europe, at least) to extend copyright beyond the term it's been at for the last 20 years.

[Greg Anos]

Originally Posted by HarryT

Obviously it is for commercial reasons, but I see no political will (in Europe, at least) to extend copyright beyond the term it's been at for the last 20 years.

Where there a well heeled lobby, there usually is a way...

Wait until the next US extension, (in a couple of years) and you'll suddenly hear talk about (and bills for) "harmonization". . .

Amazing, isn't it that "harmonization never leads to a shorter length. .

[HarryT]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

Wait until the next US extension, (in a couple of years)

Do you have a reference to support your assertion that US copyright term will be extended in two years?

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by HarryT

Do you have a reference to support your assertion that US copyright term will be extended in two years?

To be fair, one can see how an American might think this is obvious. Compare the UK and the US over the 20th Century.

UK
1900: 42 years or life+7, whichever is longer
1911: life+50
1996 (retroactive): life+70

US:
1900: 28 + 14 on renewal
1909: 28 + 28 on renewal
1976: life+50 or 75 years for corporate works
1998: life+70 or 95 years for corporate works

These changes have ensured that nothing published from 1923 onwards (and had its copyright renewed) has come into the US public domain.

Personally, I don't think that any such extension will happen. But I don't think it's unreasonable to think it might.

[HarryT]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

Personally, I don't think that any such extension will happen. But I don't think it's unreasonable to think it might.

I don't think it'll happen either. If Ralph is willing to stick by his assertion, though, I'm more than willing to place a small wager with him that a longer US copyright term will not be in force two years from today than is in place today. Will you take me up on that, Ralph?

[pwalker8]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

To be fair, one can see how an American might think this is obvious. Compare the UK and the US over the 20th Century.

UK
1900: 42 years or life+7, whichever is longer
1911: life+50
1996 (retroactive): life+70

US:
1900: 28 + 14 on renewal
1909: 28 + 28 on renewal
1976: life+50 or 75 years for corporate works
1998: life+70 or 95 years for corporate works

These changes have ensured that nothing published from 1923 onwards (and had its copyright renewed) has come into the US public domain.

Personally, I don't think that any such extension will happen. But I don't think it's unreasonable to think it might.

Currently, the Mouse goes out of copyright in 2023, if my calculations are correct (Steamboat Willie was released in 1928). I don't know about two years, but I would not be shocked if it's extended within 7 years.

[Greg Anos]

Originally Posted by HarryT

I don't think it'll happen either. If Ralph is willing to stick by his assertion, though, I'm more than willing to place a small wager with him that a longer US copyright term will not be in force two years from today than is in place today. Will you take me up on that, Ralph?

As Paul will verify, I already have two bets concerning this, with end of 2022 target dates.

For that target date, I am betting 1/2 oz gold. 1st that there will be an attempt. and 2nd, it will succeed.

Harry, I'll make the same bet, with a 2022 target date - even up. 1/2 oz gold to 1/2 oz gold, both bets.

(I will pay off with Britainnias).

Are you game?

[SteveEisenberg]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

Are you game?

If any such bet is taken, my rooting will be for a tremendous collapse in the price of gold.

[HarryT]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

As Paul will verify, I already have two bets concerning this, with end of 2022 target dates.

For that target date, I am betting 1/2 oz gold. 1st that there will be an attempt. and 2nd, it will succeed.

Harry, I'll make the same bet, with a 2022 target date - even up. 1/2 oz gold to 1/2 oz gold, both bets.

(I will pay off with Britainnias).

Are you game?

No, your claim in post #77 above was that the US copyright term would be extended within two years, not seven years. I'm offering you a wager on that basis.

[Greg Anos]

Originally Posted by HarryT

No, your claim in post #77 above was that the US copyright term would be extended within two years, not seven years. I'm offering you a wager on that basis.

I meant "a couple of years" as a few years. That has been my position for "a couple of years".

I apologise for being imprecise. My expectations are that the changes will put in as a rider to a major, critical bill in late 2018, shortly before the Congress expires for the year. Or passed early the next year (2019). Same pattern as the 1998 extension.

Are you of the opinion that it won't be extended in this time zone, or that you just caught me in a sloppy statement?

[HarryT]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

I meant "a couple of years" as a few years. That has been my position for "a couple of years".

I apologise for being imprecise. My expectations are that the changes will put in as a rider to a major, critical bill in late 2018, shortly before the Congress expires for the year. Or passed early the next year (2019). Same pattern as the 1998 extension.

Are you of the opinion that it won't be extended in this time zone, or that you just caught me in a sloppy statement?

I think that there will very likely be an attempt to extend the term of copyright in the timescale you propose, but that it won't succeed.

[Greg Anos]

Originally Posted by HarryT

I think that there will very likely be an attempt to extend the term of copyright in the timescale you propose, but that it won't succeed.

And I think that tens of millions of dollars of lobbying money will buy the extension. The voices that paid counter money on SOPA will have no reason to counter lobby copyright. Extending copyright will not threaten them big dollar lawsuits, unlike SOPA.

We have the best government that money can buy...It's just out of the public's price range...

[Greg Anos]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

To be fair, one can see how an American might think this is obvious. Compare the UK and the US over the 20th Century.

UK
1900: 42 years or life+7, whichever is longer
1911: life+50
1996 (retroactive): life+70

US:
1900: 28 + 14 on renewal
1909: 28 + 28 on renewal
1976: life+50 or 75 years for corporate works
1998: life+70 or 95 years for corporate works

These changes have ensured that nothing published from 1923 onwards (and had its copyright renewed) has come into the US public domain.

Personally, I don't think that any such extension will happen. But I don't think it's unreasonable to think it might.

Correction:

1976: life+50 or 75 years for corporate works
1998: life+70 or 95 years for corporate works

Should read:

1976: life+50 or 75 years for all works under copyright at the time of enactment
1998: life+70 or 95 years for all works under copyright at the time of enactment

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

Correction:

1976: life+50 or 75 years for corporate works
1998: life+70 or 95 years for corporate works

Should read:

1976: life+50 or 75 years for all works under copyright at the time of enactment
1998: life+70 or 95 years for all works under copyright at the time of enactment

You can add the info about existing works, but my summary was accurate as far as it went.

And if you really want to address the changes to existing work copyright length, it gets extremely complicated.

For example, something written before 1978, but published between 1978 and 2002 is in copyright in the US for of 70 years after the author's death or 31st December 2047, whichever is longer. (There's going to be lots of posthumously published stuff coming into the public domain in the US on 1st January 2048!)