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Old 09-06-2015, 02:55 PM   #16
pwalker8
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Originally Posted by crossi View Post
I forgot the exact percentages but say Author 10%, Publisher 60% and Amazon 30%. The way Amazon used to work the publisher set the price at $10. The author got 10% so earned $1 million, the publisher got it's $6 million but Amazon instead of getting it's $3 million chose to give up some of it's profits and instead discount it and only take $1 million by cutting the price and recoup the price cut by selling a lot more of the books.

Lets say the discount doubled the sales, now the author gets $2 million, the publisher gets $12 million and Amazon almost makes up for the discount by getting $2 million.

You keep assuming the discount comes from what the publisher/author got. It didn't. The only one taking a cut in the profit/book sold was Amazon. This is not a difficult concept. Try to take it in. The Publishers/authors did NOT take a pay cut even if the number of books sold didn't increase.

Lets say you sold me something. I give you your money, whatever price you ask. I turn aound and sell it to someone else at half the price you asked me. Do you lose anything? No. You already have your money at your asking price. What do you care if I give away what I already paid you for? Especially if I keep buying things from you and then giving them away. The more gifts I give to people the more you make. Even at a 200% discount where I PAY people to take the item you would still be making money hand over fist.
Of course, what you ignore is that after doing this for a while, Amazon then said to the publisher, publisher, now that we have set the expectation of a discounted price with the customers, we want _you_ to cover the cost of that discount from here on out. That was a big part of the contract fights that Amazon had with the publishers. They thought the publishers would cave.

Amazon is in the business of making money. Like Walmart, the way they keep the prices low is to push to cost on to the provider. You don't make money long term by selling a product for less than you pay for it.
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Old 09-06-2015, 03:41 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by dickloraine View Post
But midlist is affected. And that's the biggest bulk of books.
While it may be true that midlist sales might be affected, over all sales figures are driven by big selling books. Big selling books sell an order of magnitude more than other books. I've seen estimates that the 50 shades of grey books have sold 125 M (which by some strange coincidence, came out in 2013). Most years, the top selling book might get close to 2 M.

As far as how much midlist authors are effected, those figures are very hard to get. The link to John Scalzi's numbers for his last book seem to indicate that he is seeing significant sales in the audiobook arena. Perhaps, some of those readers are shifting to audiobooks rather than ebooks. Audiobooks tend to be more expensive than ebooks.

Redshirts sales (June 5th, 2012 to Jan. 14th, 2013 the period that Redshirt was in hard back)
Hardcover - 26,604
eBook - 35,667
audio book - 17,008

Lock in sales (Hardback period, i.e. an apple to apple comparison, August 10, 2015)
Hardcover - 22,500
eBook - 24,000
Audiobook - 41,000

So yes, the ebook sales went down, but the audio sales went up and the total unit sales were more for Lock In (87,500) than Redshirts (70,279). Redshirts had an ebook price point of $12 while Lock In had an ebook price of just under $11, i.e. Lock In sold less ebooks than Redshirts at a lower price. That doesn't exactly follow the narrative being pushed.

http://whatever.scalzi.com/2013/01/1...re-title-2013/
http://whatever.scalzi.com/2015/08/1...re-title-2015/

One of the more important points that Scalzi makes is that the sales estimate figures for his book is way off when compared to the actual sales figure that he got, something that should be kept in mind when discussing sales from newspaper articles that base their numbers on those estimates.
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Old 09-06-2015, 05:36 PM   #18
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Somehow I get the feeling Amazon is having a good laugh over this. They are making money no matter what. The publishers--not so much.
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Old 09-06-2015, 06:20 PM   #19
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Isn't this "no blockbuster" explanation given nearly everytime sales go down? Maybe that isn't a sound business plan to just try to generate bestellers.
The largest bulk of profit comes from the back- and midlist. It is not that spectacular and it is spread over many books. Mind you, I don't say bestellers aren't important, and can if totally spectacular improve earnings enormous. But hoping for a lottery win is not good business.
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Old 09-06-2015, 06:37 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dickloraine View Post
Isn't this "no blockbuster" explanation given nearly everytime sales go down? Maybe that isn't a sound business plan to just try to generate bestellers.
The largest bulk of profit comes from the back- and midlist. It is not that spectacular and it is spread over many books. Mind you, I don't say bestellers aren't important, and can if totally spectacular improve earnings enormous. But hoping for a lottery win is not good business.
^^This.

Publishers do not live and die on the oddball bestseller.
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Old 09-06-2015, 06:56 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by pwalker8 View Post
Of course, what you ignore is that after doing this for a while, Amazon then said to the publisher, publisher, now that we have set the expectation of a discounted price with the customers, we want _you_ to cover the cost of that discount from here on out. That was a big part of the contract fights that Amazon had with the publishers. They thought the publishers would cave.
Wow! I was unaware that the independently vetted, intimate details of the contract fights were finally made public. Where can I read them (he asked expecting the standard "do your own research; my reluctance to provide any evidence of my claims makes it harder for me to be discounted completely" answer)?

Last edited by DiapDealer; 09-06-2015 at 09:44 PM.
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Old 09-06-2015, 07:18 PM   #22
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I think the current contracts are about two things: perception of worth and Amazon's market share.

The BPHs are desperately trying to avoid the iTunes scenario. Jobs successfully took control of pricing away from the music industry. Thanks to him, a song is worth $0.99. Forever. It's branded into the public consciousness. Although if you're willing to forego owning the song, you can go even cheaper.

The BPHs *really* want to avoid giving Bezos control of what a book is worth. They've only been partially successful. That's the danger in dealing with a retailer that cares more about market share then profit. I'm pretty sure the BPHs fear an Amazon monopsony, and I don't think they're wrong to.

And speaking of Amazon market share, combating that is another reason. Agency has its faults, but it does allow for a range of retailers, even if those retailers can't cut profit margins to the bone like Amazon does. (Kobo, for example, is reliant on Agency to the point that they've lobbied to keep it.)

I honestly don't mind Agency, as long as the publishers aren't idiots. (Sadly, not always the case.) If I can get my e-book for a little less than the mass-market paperbound, I'm okay.
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Old 09-06-2015, 08:11 PM   #23
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Books by authors whose previous books I've really liked, I might buy at hardcover prices(depending on the size of my TBR list budget and desire to read that book ASAP)

But the vast majority of books?

Why spend hard-cover prices for something I'll probably like when I can spend less than a third the cost on a different book I'll probably like just as much?

And while most books are sold to people who buy fewer books then I do, I don't see why the reasoning wouldn't still hold true, price matters more when you are less sure how much you'll like it.
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Old 09-06-2015, 08:32 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by fjtorres View Post
Dollar books are a separate issue since those extreme prices tend to be short-term promotions, shorts, or PD titles.

They are no more representative of the economics of ebooks than perma-free titles when taken alone. (Perma-free works as a loss leader entry into a ladder-priced series.)

Amazon discourages $0.99 ebooks as much as they discourage $20 ebooks, maybe more.

Amazon explained their view on the non-linear price elasticity of books way back in summer 2014:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ryanmac/...r-9-99-prices/



Fundamentally, the BPHs and their apologists don't believe in price elasticity but they do believe in the divine infallibility of BPH execs. In that worldview the BPHs only publish great books and people will pay any price to buy those books because only those specific books will meet their needs.

The idea that somebody might see a book priced at $20 and choose instead to buy two other books at $9.99 each is alien to them. Of course, the reality is that a more typical reader with buy two $6 books and a month of Hulu or Netflix.
I am not disagreeing with you but I am saying one of the BPH screwed over an author royally on her e-book just to get that number 1 spot.
Yes it was a sale but if even 100,000 buy it while it is on sale that is still money out of the author's pocket.
Now if Amazon is so against 99 cents why do they allow it? Better yet, please explain how amazon is so against 99 cent books? They make 65 cents on almost every 99 cent book. Why do they allow countdown deals at 99 cents? They only get 30 cents on those.
Please show me in writing where Amazon is against 99 cent books. Or is this the royalty thing?
If they were really against that price point, they could disallow it. I mean you cannot go lower than 99 cents. And perma-free is technically against their TOS but they overlook it. If it bothered them that much, they could quit doing it.
Oh and on the free books, if Amazon is so against it, why are there nearly 1 million public domain books free there. Heck that was an advertising campaign.
Those "loss leaders" bring in customers.
Long as I am there might as well grab a reading light, baby gate, batteries and a charger, diaper pail (that was a gift), and the list goes on.
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Old 09-06-2015, 08:37 PM   #25
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^^This.

Publishers do not live and die on the oddball bestseller.
Well, is they keep hunting for lottery winners they just might...
(More than one Hollywood studio has.)
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Old 09-06-2015, 08:56 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Cinisajoy View Post
Now if Amazon is so against 99 cents why do they allow it? Better yet, please explain how amazon is so against 99 cent books? They make 65 cents on almost every 99 cent book. Why do they allow countdown deals at 99 cents? They only get 30 cents on those.
Please show me in writing where Amazon is against 99 cent books. Or is this the royalty thing?
The royalty thing, of course.
Amazon doesn't forbid 99 cent *regular price* titles because some are PD or shorts.
But they do discourage it.

They allow 99 cent sales but that isn't the everyday pricing; just, as I said, temporary promos.

The same with free books. They allow it but they put limits on it.
If they didn't care they wouldn't limit.

The Other thing is Amazon has a pricing recommendation tool for indie authors based on genre also-boughts. In most cases it recommends higher prices than prevailing rates.

There is this general perception out there that Amazon wants to drive ebook prices to rock bottom; they don't. They tolerate freebies and 99 centers but their own policies are for regular prices closer to $5 than zero. (Author Earnings has documented this repeatedly.)

After all, there has to be room for promotional discounts.

There is a sweet spot for ebook pricing that maximizes profits and all evidence from Kindle and Smashwords is that it lies in the $4-8 range, depending on genre and author fanbase.

Pricing normal books lower is about buying visibility, not generating revenue.

That is how price jogging works: you price the book a bit higher than the average price you want to maintain and then drop it dramatically for a day or two once in a while. Regular price sales go up after the sale ends, making up for the losses from the promo.

Modern Retail pricing is a dynamic thing, not a matter of setting a fixed price and praying.
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Old 09-06-2015, 08:59 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by fjtorres View Post
Well, is they keep hunting for lottery winners they just might...
(More than one Hollywood studio has.)
Sorry, I should've said they haven't been.
But I think my analysis will continue to be valid at least as long as the tradpubs retain copyright ownership of the backlist.


Well, they might die slowly of a thousand paper cuts on the oddball bestseller...
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Old 09-06-2015, 09:24 PM   #28
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The royalty thing, of course.
Amazon doesn't forbid 99 cent *regular price* titles because some are PD or shorts.
But they do discourage it.

They allow 99 cent sales but that isn't the everyday pricing; just, as I said, temporary promos.

The same with free books. They allow it but they put limits on it.
If they didn't care they wouldn't limit.

The Other thing is Amazon has a pricing recommendation tool for indie authors based on genre also-boughts. In most cases it recommends higher prices than prevailing rates.

There is this general perception out there that Amazon wants to drive ebook prices to rock bottom; they don't. They tolerate freebies and 99 centers but their own policies are for regular prices closer to $5 than zero. (Author Earnings has documented this repeatedly.)

After all, there has to be room for promotional discounts.

There is a sweet spot for ebook pricing that maximizes profits and all evidence from Kindle and Smashwords is that it lies in the $4-8 range, depending on genre and author fanbase.

Pricing normal books lower is about buying visibility, not generating revenue.

That is how price jogging works: you price the book a bit higher than the average price you want to maintain and then drop it dramatically for a day or two once in a while. Regular price sales go up after the sale ends, making up for the losses from the promo.

Modern Retail pricing is a dynamic thing, not a matter of setting a fixed price and praying.
I know how sales work. But most of the 99 cent books at Amazon are not on sale. That is their everyday price.

I would love it if on Weds all the grocery stores decided they need to put chicken, pork tenderloin, ground beef, canned goods and assorted other stuff on sale.

Thing is, I have never seen one word from Amazon about e-book pricing.
Everytime I have heard your argument, it was from someone who thought all books should be priced higher so they didn't have to compete with the cheap books. Yes, I have heard it many times.

My point is if Amazon wanted all books to start at $2.99, they could do that.
Please show me where Amazon has said they don't like 99 cents and free. In those words or something similar.

You do know they also give big sellers of other items discounts on the fees.

If Amazon didn't want someone picking up mostly freebies and 99 cent books, then I am sure they could put a limit on how many a customer could get.
Instead they tell us, thank you for being a very valuable customer.

Not to mention if a person buys three 99 cent ebooks, Amazon has made $2.05. If a person buys a $2.99 book, Amazon only made 89 cents.
My math says Amazon is profiting off the low price books.

But I guess, making less money is better than making more money.

See Amazon is customer centric and knows they will sell more at 99 cents than at 2.99.
That is overall, not per author.
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Old 09-06-2015, 10:09 PM   #29
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Here's a real life example.

On social media someone posted a screenshot from the bio of Elon Musk, founder of SpaceX and Tesla, among other companies. That screenshot, along with reviews I'd read and other chatter about the book that I'd consumed convinced me to go to Amazon and make a uncharacteristic (for me) full-price purchase of non-fiction tome.

At Amazon it's listed at $16.99 for the Kindle edition. At 9.99-12.99, I'd have continued with the impulse purchase. At $16.99 I closed that browser tab and went to my local library in search of either the e or p-book.

From the original article:

Quote:
“Since book buyers expect the price of a Kindle e-book to be well under $9, once you get to over $10 consumers start to say, ‘Let me think about that,’” said Codex CEO Peter Hildick-Smith.
Quote:
Publishers succeeded in preventing Amazon from lowballing prices, but “unfortunately, it may be that consumers aren’t happy with the higher prices,” said Mike Shatzkin, chief executive of publishing consulting firm Idea Logical Co.

Hachette cited fewer hot titles and the implementation of its Amazon deal as reasons that e-books fell to 24% of its U.S. net trade sales in the first half of 2015, from 29% a year earlier. Declining e-book sales contributed to a 7.8% drop in revenue in the period.
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Old 09-07-2015, 05:26 AM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dickloraine View Post
Isn't this "no blockbuster" explanation given nearly everytime sales go down? Maybe that isn't a sound business plan to just try to generate bestellers.
The largest bulk of profit comes from the back- and midlist. It is not that spectacular and it is spread over many books. Mind you, I don't say bestellers aren't important, and can if totally spectacular improve earnings enormous. But hoping for a lottery win is not good business.
Well, if it's the truth then of course it would be the explanation given when sales go down.

The book industry isn't that different from the music industry, the movie industry, the game industry or even the restaurant industry. The big hit is what drives the entertainment industry and what generates the big profits.

As far as midlist, I gave an example of real numbers by a real midlist author. His overall sales number were up. His ebook numbers were down, even though the later book sold for less than the earlier book. That argues that the narrative being pushed, that sales are purely based on price, isn't valid.
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