Is SF dying?

[fjtorres]

Publishers Weekly recently published their breakdown of industry sales for 2014:
http://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/b...s-of-2014.html

Adult Fiction
Action/Adventure 2,619 2,239 -15%
Classics 7,817 7,578 -3%
Fantasy. 8,615 7,526 -13%
Graphic Novels 7,659 8,669 13%
Mystery/Detective 14,884 14,304 -4%
Occult/
Psychological/Horror 4,474 3,329 -26%
Religion 4,925 4,174 -15%
Romance 34,585 30,885 -11%
Science Fiction 4,448 4,142 -7%)
Suspense/Thrillers. 22,161. 20,111 -9%
Western 2,088 2,232 7%
General Fiction 36,314 33,524 -8%
Total Adult Fiction 150,590 138,712 -8%

According to those numbers, SF&F have faced big declines in 2013 and 2014, leading to reports like this:

http://voxday.blogspot.com/2015/01/p...lling-sff.html

...science fiction was also down 21% in 2013, which means that science fiction unit sales have declined 1,488,000 in just two years. It's down more than one-quarter in two years and is now only half the size of the Graphic Novel market...

...and, in reaction, this:

http://madgeniusclub.com/2015/01/27/...ky-is-falling/

It seems that those numbers come from Bookscan. You know, our friendly neighborhood sales reporter that doesn’t count every sale from every outlet but uses handwavium to figure out what title has sold how many units. Bookscan that doesn’t track every title, as in most indie titles aren’t included. Bookscan that is iffy at best when it comes to reporting e-book sales. But, if we are to take PW seriously, we are to worry about the decline in demand for science fiction.

Sorry, but no. If PW and those looking at the figures and wringing their hands would know if they simply took a little time to think about it, all these figures show is that people are tired of what is coming out of most traditional publishing houses when it comes to SF.

In recent days the methodology of the various "official" sources of sales data has come under question because it relies on ISBN numbers and extrapolating from self-reported data from trsditional publishers, and only a handful of larger traditional publishers (in Bookscan's case) at that.

Still, the numbers are out there, are being debated, fingers are being pointed (at women, at politics, whatever) all the while, nobody is asking readers if they are reading less SF&F in favor of other genres or if they are merely expanding the sources from which they buy beyond traditional publishing houses.

We do know for a fact that SF (and romance) readers have been early and heavy adopters of ebooks and that the top sellers in the SF&F categories at Amazon are only sparsely populated with frontlist tradpub SF. Maybe the genre's "center of gravity" is shifting away from corporate publishing imprints, to sources that don't use ISBNs or pay to submit sales data to BOOKSCAN or are simply too small to be noticed by the "official" trackers.

Me, I'm inclined towards the latter: aside from the BAEN webscriptions, all my SF&Fantasy buys for the past 5 years (since the conspiracy, in fact) have been indie and micro-press.

On the other hand...?

Anybody have similar or contrasting stories?
Could the increase in availability of SF&F (and similar genre) content in TV and Movies be undercutting SF sales?

Other thoughts?

Maybe people aren't as interested in the genre's approach and ideas as much as earlier times?

Maybe SF *is* dying?

[DrNefario]

The adult SF sector declined more slowly than adult fiction overall (-7% vs -8%), and the juvenile Science Fiction/Fantasy/Magic category (who comes up with these things?) had a whopping 38% increase, which would surely indicate a rosy future?

[Phogg]

As a genre reader, I moved to reading largely indie authors some years ago.
SF readers are particularly likely to take this path because the big publishers do not keep up with all our desired subgenre.

As an example, there are currently 138 ebooks in my "Any Superhero" collection. I filter out offerings with eroticism, sexuality or preachy political stuff before I buy. I don't buy titles customer reviews or Goodreads flag for spelling errors or bad writing. So my collection is not simply every superhero book put on the market. There are also books I might like, but they are above my eight dollar price ceiling for fiction. The major publishers just don't cater to this or many other subgenre, and SF readers are particularly likely to go to wherever the stories they like are.

If I wanted something different, say "lesbian psionic mercenaries" I could probably find that if I searched Amazon and Smashwords.

[jgaiser]

Voxday? I wouldn't believe voxday if he said the sky was blue. He's racist, misogynistic a$$hole.

[GERGE]

SF&F isn't dying, far from it. SF&F is changing. These days, many of the SF&F novels are self-published. I wouldn't be surprised if sales have actually gone up with them.

[theducks]

How do you get meaningful stats when the product definition keeps mutating?

50 years ago all SF and Fantasy were shelved together in many book stores (many are still tagged that way today)

Today there are many (sub)categories that were once lumped together

Back then there was a small Comic book rack (Superman for 10 - 25 cents) at Woolworths.

Today there are stores that are devoted to Graphic Novels (prices not even close to 10 cents )

GN's and Audio books are now in the mix of the SF fix

I don't believe SF is really dying

[crane3]

The reports are very flawed. What is the definition of "science fiction", fantasy or science-fantasy?

When I do a search for new titles at the public library, I see a some surprising items like Laurell Hamilton's books centered on either vampires or fairies. I also see some "romance" books that has werewolves & vampires; even some "mystery" stories have werewolves or vampires. All in the "science fiction" area.

Would the report also list J D Robb's mystery books as "science fiction" only or both science fiction & mystery areas considering they are future oriented as in the future time from now?

Aren't some graphic novels also in the science fiction category as they are in the future time? Or what about "steam punk" stories which are in the past but uses some "future" science or magic but basically are mysteries?

I'm finding that categories are becoming quite blurred when dealing with science fiction/fantasy or even mysteries! So the reports are based on how the publishers singularly categorize the book for publishing rather than the content or perception by the purchaser.

[kennyc]

It's become mainstream. No not really but over the past few years I've seen more and more and more SF/Fantasy/Magical Realism showing up in the mainstream and literary publications.

I suspect some of it is moving online as well and not being published in the traditional manner from what I'm seeing on websites.

[Ghitulescu]

We are living in Science-Fiction.

Just think

The US have a black president.
Russia is "rotten" capitalistic.
US and Russia are friends in space (Space Station).
Oil price is like in the '20ies.
We have been predicted to live in a global warming but the weather is colder and colder.

Shall I continue?

[Catlady]

If SF dies, let me know. I'll plan a party.

[Ravensknight]

I blame the Indies...

[Bilbo1967]

Originally Posted by Ravensknight

I blame the Indies...

West or East?

[gbm]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

Me, I'm inclined towards the latter: aside from the BAEN webscriptions, all my SF&Fantasy buys for the past 5 years (since the conspiracy, in fact) have been indie and micro-press.

The same here.


We are living in a SF world, stories that when I was younger would have been SF are now just fiction.


bernie

[DustyDisks]

Originally Posted by Bilbo1967

West or East?

Other side of the "spicy" adult fiction section !

[pwalker8]

The death of SF/F has been an on again/off again thing since the 80's. Basically, there is a lot of churn. Add in the fact that sub-genres come and go and there is a cyclical nature to the various genres (people move from SF to adventure to mystery and eventually back around) and it's pretty easy to assume that SF is dying when you see a 2 year drop. Especially if you have a specific sub-genre you like and people stop writing in it.

I've seen Fantasy go from Roger Zelazny to Tolkien knock offs to middle ages fantasy to SF/F mixes to vampire and werewolf romances.