Amazon may soon be able to predict our purchases.

[Mike L]

I agree with Mr Durrant on this. In fact, it's not all that surprising that Amazon should be doing this. It's really just a refinement of what vendors have been doing on a smaller scale for a couple of decades: where a vendor "merchandises" particular products in a bricks-and-mortar store according to predicted sales, based on local demographics, past sales, trend analysis etc. What Amazon is doing is merely a more sophistated version of that.

Mike

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by DiapDealer

That's quite clever, actually. Surely it's evil, immoral and scary, though. Right? Am I right?

Yup.
It's Amazon thinking of doing it, so it has to be.

[NickyWithNook]

So basically they'll have distribution centers and guess what books will be most popular in each distribution center's area based on local demographics, and estimate how many they'll need based on population.

[jersysman]

If it will get an order to be faster, then I am all for it.

[DiapDealer]

Originally Posted by NickyWithNook

So basically they'll have distribution centers and guess what books will be most popular in each distribution center's area based on local demographics, and estimate how many they'll need based on population.

That's what they do now (though probably not so much with books as with other merchandise).

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by NickyWithNook

So basically they'll have distribution centers and guess what books will be most popular in each distribution center's area based on local demographics, and estimate how many they'll need based on population.

Ish. Amazon won't have the distribution centres. The delivery companies have the distribution centres. Amazon will be* using them by sending packages with generic addresses that get updated in transit.



*I don't know if Amazon are actually going to implement this patent. But if they can get the delivery companies on board (and let's face it, Amazon are a BIG customer for delivery companies) it sounds like a very good idea.

[NickyWithNook]

Ah, I see. Enough packages delivered by UPS are Amazon that they could. My 4-year-old calls the UPS truck "The Present Truck."

[sirmaru]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

Amazon won't have the distribution centres. The delivery companies have the distribution centres. Amazon will be* using them by sending packages with generic addresses that get updated in transit.

I use UPS My Choice and, when I order from Amazon, I get an email from UPS telling me the date and time of delivery and offering me an opportunity to change the date and / or time if inconvenient for me.

After delivery, they send me an email telling the exact time and place of delivery.

Most of my Amazon purchases reach me in one day. The place of origination in the UPS tracking history is usually a warehouse only 5 miles from my house or a UPS center 5 miles from my house.

Goods, which I order on a regular, periodic basis, already show ads on their home page for me when I am supposed to re-order. If I search for new products at Amazon, they always have reminder ads for me on their home page for a few days.

Those ads even appear on OTHER SITES as well since they must plant cookies on my PC to keep them appearing wherever I go on the internet.

That patent may only be confirming something they are already doing.

[Sil_liS]

Originally Posted by Mike L

I agree with Mr Durrant on this. In fact, it's not all that surprising that Amazon should be doing this. It's really just a refinement of what vendors have been doing on a smaller scale for a couple of decades: where a vendor "merchandises" particular products in a bricks-and-mortar store according to predicted sales, based on local demographics, past sales, trend analysis etc. What Amazon is doing is merely a more sophistated version of that.

But this will be under a patent.

[QuantumIguana]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

It isn't that Amazon can know that a particular person will place an order at any particular time, but they can know that a certain number of people is a particular area will be placing an order.

The packages would get shipped with a partial address, and the actual address is updated in the shipping company's records when the order is placed, while the package is in transit.

I think it's a brilliant idea for a big country like the US, where surface shipping can easily take two or three days.

Essentially they'll be using the shipping company's buildings and trucks as remote warehouses.

That makes a lot of sense. If you expect that in a certain neighborhood there will be X number of people ordering a widget, if you keep X of them at the warehouse, you can get it to customers that much more quickly. It's sort of like a store stocking enough gallons of milk to meet the expected demand.

[Apache]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

Predicting what one individual will like/buy at a certain time is very hard, if not impossible.
Predicting what 10,000 people will like/buy is a lot easier. Especially if you have their order history for the past year.

But you would think that they could suggest books in genres that I have actually purchased or viewed on Amazon.
Apache

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by Sil_liS

But this will be under a patent.

One-click is just a more sophisticated form of online checkout.
And the patent has held up.
(Shrug)

If the rules of the game allow something, the smart player will run with it.

[speakingtohe]

Originally Posted by Apache

But you would think that they could suggest books in genres that I have actually purchased or viewed on Amazon.
Apache

I don't disagree and I think that they would if they could and will when they can. I am of the opinion that somehow they rely heavily on Google at the moment for their suggestions but I could be wrong.

Helen

[Barty]

They can ship all they want. As long as they don't start predictive billing, whereupon I will engage in predictive suing.

[ApK]

Originally Posted by Barty

They can ship all they want. As long as they don't start predictive billing, whereupon I will engage in predictive suing.

Every time a government or large corporate bureaucracy ticks me off, I add their name to a mailing list in case I ever decide to take up "promiscuous invoicing" as a hobby. "Predictive billing" might be a better name.

ApK