Konrath looks to 2014

[fjtorres]

From Joe Konrath's blog, 10 predictions for 2014:
http://jakonrath.blogspot.com/2013/1...ions-2014.html

Some are definitely going to happen because he intends to make them happen.

Libraries will have the opportunity to buy ebooks at a fair price, with fair usage, directly from authors. Namely me and those who join me via a new company I'm starting.

...

Permafree will be monetized. The ebook library company I'm starting will help fund another ebook company I'm also starting, one where authors will earn money via free ebook downloads. More soon.

Others are a bit of reach but not out of the question:

The end of Barnes & Noble as we know it. In 2014, paper book sales will no longer be significant enough to sustain the nation's largest bookstore chain. There may be bankruptcy and restructuring and the selling of assets (like the Nook), but ultimately it will result in many stores closing, and possibly the demise of the brand.

Big 5 mergers and layoffs and bankruptcies. As the publishing cartel loses its quasi-monopoly on paper distribution, there will be no way to support its infrastructure. Manhattan rent, in-house employees with benefits, length of time to publish, and the temptation for authors to avoid legacy and self-pub, will bring down the industry. There is too much waste, their share of the pie is getting smaller, and when B&N disappears there will be no way to recover.

Also pretty much a given:

Legacy will fight back. We've seen some push-back from those invested in the legacy industry. The collusion, the Authors Guild, the AAR, Patterson and King and Russo. But these were all just warning shots across the bow. They're afraid, and rightfully so, but not desperate yet.

Desperation will eventually settle in. And I don't expect it to be pretty.

Where Dean Wesley Smith likely underestimates ebook tech over the long haul, Konrath likely overestimates its short term impact, but both are putting their money where their opinions are and doing nicely so it's worth keeping them in mind.

Lots more from Konrath at the source.
(And the comments are worth checking out.)

[mcrow]

I do think B&N is on it's way out and the e-books are still on the rise but I don't see 2014 being the end of B&N.


I think we could start seeing more downsizing of B&N stores. I could see them doing like BestBuy where BB closed down several stores and opened a bunch of smaller satellite stores that focused more on the more popular devices like tablets and cellphones.

I could see B&N focusing even more on best sellers, childrens books and reference type books and cutting inventory of paperback fiction.

[latepaul]

Permafree will be monetized.

I'm intrigued by this. On the basis that there's nothing new under the sun I'm going to guess it's one of:

• first in series free as loss-leader (but organized/collected by KonrathCorp)
• a form of subscription (i.e. not really "free" but it feels like it for any given ebook)
• ad-supported (i.e. not really free)
• kick-starter for books where the proceeds go in part to maintain an archive of free ebooks.
• something else... (but it won't really be free)

[mcrow]

Originally Posted by latepaul

I'm intrigued by this. On the basis that there's nothing new under the sun I'm going to guess it's one of:

• first in series free as loss-leader (but organized/collected by KonrathCorp)
• a form of subscription (i.e. not really "free" but it feels like it for any given ebook)
• ad-supported (i.e. not really free)
• kick-starter for books where the proceeds go in part to maintain an archive of free ebooks.
• something else... (but it won't really be free)

I think that some self published athors have had a lot of success with giving away the first book in the series with the hope people will buy the others, so that might be the angle. It has worked well for Baen to give away back catalog e-books.

[fjtorres]

I suspect it will be something along the lines of a structured repository or catalog, organized by genre and subgenre, with relevant paid ads. That is how pirate sites monetize their "visitors" after all. The site might host author and/or publisher pages, reviews, and discussion groups as ways to keep users hanging around and boosting pageviews and ad revenues.
Payment might be similar to the Kindle Lending Library, with a fixed percent of ad revenues split among the book suppliers each month.

[Crowl]

Originally Posted by mcrow

I think that some self published athors have had a lot of success with giving away the first book in the series with the hope people will buy the others, so that might be the angle. It has worked well for Baen to give away back catalog e-books.

While they don't reduce them to free, giving away book 1 of a series has been one of the primary approaches in kindle sales for ages too.

[kennyc]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

I suspect it will be something along the lines of a structured repository or catalog, organized by genre and subgenre, with relevant paid ads. That is how pirate sites monetize their "visitors" after all. The site might host author and/or publisher pages, reviews, and discussion groups as ways to keep users hanging around and boosting pageviews and ad revenues.
Payment might be similar to the Kindle Lending Library, with a fixed percent of ad revenues split among the book suppliers each month.

Yep.


and his #10 is the biggest/most telling of change.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by kennyc

Yep.


and his #10 it the biggest/most telling of change.

Agreed.
It is going to get vitriolic and personal. Things always get nasty when empires collapse.