After Apple’s Rise, a Bruising Fall -- Gravity?

[SeaKing]

News Analysis
After Apple’s Rise, a Bruising Fall
By NATHANIEL POPPER and NICK WINGFIELD
Published: April 18, 2013, NY Times

"Where’s the old love, Apple?

Wall Street has turned viciously on its one-time iDarling. The rout in Apple’s share price — it fell nearly 2.7 percent on Thursday, bringing the damage since late September to 44 percent — has many wondering when, and where, all of this will end.

The answer, of course, is that no one really knows. Yes, Apple is slowing, as companies inevitably do. But Apple remains enormously profitable and the envy of corporations worldwide.

And yet Apple’s decline in the stock market has been so swift and so brutal that the development has begun to change the way investors view the company. Apple no longer looks like a sure thing. "

Source

Sounds like Newtons's Gravity is working. Who would have thought?

[fjtorres]

Nothing grows forever.
Bubbles burst, sooner or later.

I still see 300 on their horizon.
They're not doing anything terribly different, they just never were worth 600, much less 1000. There is no such thing as a sure thing, just speculator bait...
Once they get rid of the speculators they should be able to get back to their real business--making money.

[Canuck_in_Japan]

I know exactly when it will end. When the new iPhone5s is released and it begins to soar again. It's all cyclical.

[pl001]

Originally Posted by Canuck_in_Japan

I know exactly when it will end. When the new iPhone5s is released and it begins to soar again. It's all cyclical.

If it is indeed just a "5s" on basically the same iOS, I predict it will fall further. The current phone is too small and iOS too outdated for a minor update to keep people excited for long. After Siri and Maps, most people are now able to see through their gimmicks.

[afv011]

Originally Posted by Canuck_in_Japan

I know exactly when it will end. When the new iPhone5s is released and it begins to soar again. It's all cyclical.

When the 5 was announced (and it was supposed to be a "major" upgrade hence lack of "S"), the stock went down. If a 5S is released, what makes you think it will reverse the stock trend? The main reason behind the decline is the fear that apple has lost its steam when it comes to innovation (assuming they had it in the first place, they're good at taking what's there and improving it, but not so much at innovating, but that's a separate point), and a "5S" would certainly not assuage those fears.

[Dulin's Books]

this recent drop is connected to Cirrus's quarter numbers?

[Penforhire]

I think the most recent drop is related to analysts looking at their supplier relationships, who is gearing up (or not) to make what. Overall I think Apple's cycle has more to do with their extreme secrecy.

Investors don't have any visibility of what's really in development. So if the next products (watch, phone, TV, or whatever) have some sizzle then the stock price will recover nicely. It is about earnings growth (or lack thereof). Current price seems to be based on zero growth (8x or 9x forward earnings) and that still seems unreasonably low to me.

The company is also sitting on too high of a mountain of cash. Above some number, I'd say maybe 50 billion dollars, that cash should be spent (grow the company, pay employees more, pay a bigger dividend, etcetera).

[wodin]

The OP banner states "News Analysis", what that really means is some journalist’s opinion, and opinions are like ***holes, everybody’s got one and they all stink. For what it’s worth my opinion of why Apple’s currently in the tank is:

Spoiler:

The Wizard of Cupertino is dead!

[forsooth]

old joke

worst than worm in apple
is half worm

[Jessica Lares]

They'll be okay. I think people were expecting to see something this month, but are upset because it didn't go in that favor. iOS 7 an OS X 9 are going to be great, I trust them to make both happen by the end of the year.

I wouldn't put too much stock into the value of any corporation's shares unless, of course, I was planning to invest in the company. The problem is that the market is driven by speculation. In the case of media darlings like Apple, I'd go as far as claiming that much of the speculation borders takes the form of gossip. Stuff like, "Now that Apple's daddy is dead ...", and "Did you hear that Samsung ...".

Apple will survive and their share price has very little bearing upon that part. Apple has good products, a loyal customer base, and a huge lump of cash in reserve. Who cares what the fanbois and demonizers think, Apple is a business -- not a contestant in a popularity contests. Apple has to make money. Anything above and beyond is nice, but not necessary.

[GlenBarrington]

Originally Posted by BWinmill

I wouldn't put too much stock into the value of any corporation's shares unless, of course, I was planning to invest in the company. The problem is that the market is driven by speculation. In the case of media darlings like Apple, I'd go as far as claiming that much of the speculation borders takes the form of gossip. Stuff like, "Now that Apple's daddy is dead ...", and "Did you hear that Samsung ...".

Apple will survive and their share price has very little bearing upon that part. Apple has good products, a loyal customer base, and a huge lump of cash in reserve. Who cares what the fanbois and demonizers think, Apple is a business -- not a contestant in a popularity contests. Apple has to make money. Anything above and beyond is nice, but not necessary.

Actually I think Apple suffers from much of the same problem as Microsoft, just that the success of the 'i' devices have camouflaged it a bit.

That problem is, "how do we fit into the world we helped create?", and right now Apple doesn't seem to be able to answer that question with confidence. I suspect you'll see some some dumb moves from them in the next year or two, as they flounder around looking for ways to alter their business model to take advantage of our new technological world. Not unlike what we've seen from Microsoft in the last year or two. (and in both companies, there is enough systemic hubris to make their floundering rather entertaining!)

This iWatch thing seems a dumb move to me. An effort to respond to Google Glass, but we'll see.

Maybe they'll get through it, maybe they won't. I remind you that Eastman Kodak practically invented digital photography, and Motorola, cell phone technology. There are many paths to survival, to failure, and to triumphant success. It would be foolish to assume that we know Apple or Microsoft's future. As an investor, "You pays your money and you takes your chances".

[Fourl29]

they've done tons of mistakes, alienated pro users, stayed stale in a lot of fronts, overpriced, the maps debacle, poor ui choices for os x, and other's have caught up too, android and windows give manufacturers plenty of choices for tablets and phones so anyone can come up with something good with a good os too. A lot of ANAL-ysts were claiming apple would reach $1000, I always firmly believed they'd start dropping faster than anything because I follow the market and I got a good feel for it. There's also that much time that you can stay in hype and trendy, people want variety too. Still their prospects don't look dim at all and if they play their cards right they will be cruising along for a while.

[forsooth]

Originally Posted by GlenBarrington

Actually I think Apple suffers from much of the same problem as Microsoft, just that the success of the 'i' devices have camouflaged it a bit.

That problem is, "how do we fit into the world we helped create?", and right now Apple doesn't seem to be able to answer that question with confidence. I suspect you'll see some some dumb moves from them in the next year or two, as they flounder around looking for ways to alter their business model to take advantage of our new technological world. Not unlike what we've seen from Microsoft in the last year or two. (and in both companies, there is enough systemic hubris to make their floundering rather entertaining!)

This iWatch thing seems a dumb move to me. An effort to respond to Google Glass, but we'll see.

Maybe they'll get through it, maybe they won't. I remind you that Eastman Kodak practically invented digital photography, and Motorola, cell phone technology. There are many paths to survival, to failure, and to triumphant success. It would be foolish to assume that we know Apple or Microsoft's future. As an investor, "You pays your money and you takes your chances".

wise man you are

[forsooth]

Originally Posted by Fourl29

they've done tons of mistakes, alienated pro users, stayed stale in a lot of fronts, overpriced, the maps debacle, poor ui choices for os x, and other's have caught up too, android and windows give manufacturers plenty of choices for tablets and phones so anyone can come up with something good with a good os too. A lot of ANAL-ysts were claiming apple would reach $1000, I always firmly believed they'd start dropping faster than anything because I follow the market and I got a good feel for it. There's also that much time that you can stay in hype and trendy, people want variety too. Still their prospects don't look dim at all and if they play their cards right they will be cruising along for a while.

down in mine you think much of gravity and stone and earth above