In (approx.) 100 years, will... - Page 3

Pulpmeister · 03-09-2013, 10:38 AM

I find Chaucer hard sledding, but comprehensible, although a lot of his vocabulary, and many idioms, are extinct. A glossary is helpful, and simple modernising of spelling makes a huge difference. Shakespeare is much better heard and seen than read--the plays were meant to be performed, not read.

It might be interesting so see what people 100 years ago thought might be read in 100 years' time, and see how wrong they were. Like all predictions of distant future, they are almost certainly wrong.

Inevitably, those books that are new today and still being read in 100 years will be the survivors of a long winnowing process performed by countless readers over the generations.

Fun speculating, though!

It's comforting to know that any guesses we make here, today, of what we think will be read 100 years from know will be proved wrong. And we will not be around to feel embarrassed!

forsooth · 03-09-2013, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stop__dreaming

Haha, Homer was a bad example.

association of Homer and Bart maybe?

BWinmill · 03-09-2013, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stop__dreaming

If so, which books, today, do you feel could last with future readers?

Look at what's being taught in high schools today. A subset of those will be considered classics a hundred years from now. (Seriously. A classic is something that has had broad exposure in society and enough literary value to be taught.)

Quote:

Also, will people still be reading The Count of Monte Cristo, Les Miserables, Homer etc in 100 years?

That is a much harder call. Traditionally, the classics have been the books worth publishing. Since it was expensive to print books, relatively few books were worth publishing. Thanks to digitization, that is changing. You can now go to Project Gutenberg or the Internet Archive (or MobileRead) and find a deluge of digitized texts. It is entirely possible that hard to find texts of the past will be rediscovered and usurp the traditional classics. (The interest in historic books won't change, though tastes in those books may change.)

Latinandgreek · 03-09-2013, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by piperclassique

I admit to a hankering after Beowulf in the original

Me too! I just bought a bilingual edition of Beowulf and am attempting a self-study of Old English.

HarryT · 03-09-2013, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pulpmeister

I find Chaucer hard sledding, but comprehensible, although a lot of his vocabulary, and many idioms, are extinct. A glossary is helpful, and simple modernising of spelling makes a huge difference. Shakespeare is much better heard and seen than read--the plays were meant to be performed

One major difference between Chaucer and Shakespeare is of course that Chaucer is Middle English, whereas Shakespeare is Modern English. Middle English is a distinct language, with different grammar to Modern English. Also, Chaucer, like all educated men of his time, was trilingual in English, French, and Latin, and even his English works (he wrote in all three languages) are full of French and Latin words.

Fat Abe · 03-09-2013, 02:52 PM

One thing we should consider is how any work of literature will be consumed. I wanted to start a thread called: The Semi-Ugly Truth: Ebooks vs. Audio Books. There is a disturbing trend in libraries that offer more audio editions of a book than ebook versions. Those who like to read words on a page are relegated to borrowing pbooks. We are becoming the minority. The educational standards in the states are going to pot. Young people spend more time watching TV and playing games than reading. Their ability to read quickly is diminishing, and their vocabulary and spelling are juvenile. A well-educated person should be able to read at least 10,000 books in a lifetime. These future generations may barely reach the same level of literacy as their predecessors. Books will be spoon fed to them in audio or audio-visual mediums, very likely on a mobile device. The device could even be modeled after Google glasses. Boys and girls who have trouble reading long sentences may have their books colorized, to highlight keywords. Lol. Now, the decline in reading may not even be related to literacy. Shifts in future occupations may be focused on technology, where expertise in a programming language is more important than knowledge of a social language. This is a world where Java or C++ are the lingua franca, not English or Chinese. Artificial Intelligence could combine language and math into a new paradigm for communication. Genetic engineering may compensate for the decline in S.A.T. scores. In any case, books will be regarded differently in the future. Whether the wisdom of the ages is preserved is unknown.

BeccaPrice · 03-09-2013, 06:25 PM

Our library has, for its size, an excellent and huge audiobook library - but we have a high population of elderly and shut-ins, who seem to use audiobooks more than they do paper books. On the other hand, we have a pathetic ebook collection.

SteveEisenberg · 03-09-2013, 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat Abe

There is a disturbing trend in libraries that offer more audio editions of a book than ebook versions.

Of course, it is not the library's fault.

Almost all bestsellers are available for purchase as CD audiobooks. And libraries can buy all of them. Only a portion are available as library eBooks.

I look for books a lot at search.overdrive.com, and repeatedly see recent popular titles that are audio-only. Older titles are more likely to be eBook-only.

Quote:

A well-educated person should be able to read at least 10,000 books in a lifetime.

This is arbitrary, and I don't see what that has to do with being well-educated. Maybe being well-educated leads one to read more challenging books that take longer to finish.

Unless medical science makes some truly spectacular advances, I can't see myself making your number. I can't believe more than a tiny portion of humanity has ever read that many books, especially if they kept up to date by reading newspapers and other periodicals. It would be disturbing to me if I found my family doc was reading at that rate, since there is no time to read all those books, plus keep up with medical journals.

Quote:

These future generations may barely reach the same level of literacy as their predecessors.

You could be right. Personally, I'll make a different prediction. The percentage of adults who are literate (currently around maybe 80 percent) will continue to rise. Millions of today's developing world children who have illiterate parents will grow up to be avid readers.

To reword your claim into a form I might be able to agree with: There will probably be some regression to the mean where people in the most literate countries become, on average, less literate.

Quote:

Shifts in future occupations may be focused on technology, where expertise in a programming language is more important than knowledge of a social language.

I learn programming from books. Some learn better by listening and doing. But no one can learn a programming language except from what you call a social language.

Quote:

Whether the wisdom of the ages is preserved is unknown.

With the wisdom of the ages redundantly preserved on so much computer media, I think we are now stuck with it. Views as to what constitutes wisdom will always be various and changing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fat Abe

Those who like to read words on a page are relegated to borrowing pbooks.

Horrors!

I prefer eBooks, but the paper book is also a good form factor.

Lemurion · 03-09-2013, 10:09 PM

I don't see 10,000 books as being a reasonable goal for most: that's about a book every two days for 60 years.

I do think the increased prevalence of audiobooks may limit the numbers even more. I known one reason I avoid them is that I just can't afford the time. Stephen King's Under the Dome is just under 1100 pages in hardcover. I can read that in about 8-10 hours without much difficulty. The unabridged audiobook is over 34 hours.

crich70 · 03-10-2013, 06:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Latinandgreek

Me too! I just bought a bilingual edition of Beowulf and am attempting a self-study of Old English.

Sounds like an interesting study.

JAcheson · 03-13-2013, 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Latinandgreek

Me too! I just bought a bilingual edition of Beowulf and am attempting a self-study of Old English.

That sounds interesting. Which edition did you buy?

I always put forward Stephen King's The Stand as the contemporary book that kids will be forced to read in school. It'll be called a metaphor for cold war thinking, most likely.

I also think Terry Pratchett will continue to be read for generations.

Do you think Shelby Foote's Civil War books will last? (I've never read them.)

HarryT · 03-13-2013, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAcheson

Do you think Shelby Foote's Civil War books will last? (I've never read them.)

I've never even heard of Shelby Foote.

fjtorres · 03-13-2013, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarryT

I've never even heard of Shelby Foote.

No reason you should have.
He was (a novelist and) a historian who wrote a massive three-volume History of the American Civil War. Foote was also very telegenic and became a celebrity through being featured in KEN BURN'S THE CIVIL WAR Documentary series.
To a lot of people, the Civil War is what Burns and Foote say it was.

Give it a thousand years and he might end up as the Herodotus of our times.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelby_Foote

ManosHandsOfFate · 03-13-2013, 02:23 PM

Bestseller lists don't appear to be an indicator.

Fat Abe · 03-13-2013, 02:36 PM

If one wonders how America became a superpower, one needs to study its history, and especially its battles. Foote's trilogy is massive in scope, and considered one of the eleven best works on the Civil War.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...civil-war.html

Non-Americans may wonder why we continue to be fascinated by a war that ended a century and a half ago. It was a war where the winning side was perceived to be the one in the right (at least morally). The subject makes me wince. It is very touchy in some circles, and not the kind of topic you discuss in a friendly debate. But if anyone wants to know why Hitler and Hirohito were destroyed in WW 2, the answer is that America managed to stay "one" nation after the Civil War, despite our many disagreements, which persist to this day.

03-09-2013, 02:52 PM	#36
Fat Abe Man Who Stares at Books Posts: 1,826 Karma: 10606722 Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: 50th State, USA. Also, PA, NY, CA, and elsewhere. Device: All of the Above	One thing we should consider is how any work of literature will be consumed. I wanted to start a thread called: The Semi-Ugly Truth: Ebooks vs. Audio Books. There is a disturbing trend in libraries that offer more audio editions of a book than ebook versions. Those who like to read words on a page are relegated to borrowing pbooks. We are becoming the minority. The educational standards in the states are going to pot. Young people spend more time watching TV and playing games than reading. Their ability to read quickly is diminishing, and their vocabulary and spelling are juvenile. A well-educated person should be able to read at least 10,000 books in a lifetime. These future generations may barely reach the same level of literacy as their predecessors. Books will be spoon fed to them in audio or audio-visual mediums, very likely on a mobile device. The device could even be modeled after Google glasses. Boys and girls who have trouble reading long sentences may have their books colorized, to highlight keywords. Lol. Now, the decline in reading may not even be related to literacy. Shifts in future occupations may be focused on technology, where expertise in a programming language is more important than knowledge of a social language. This is a world where Java or C++ are the lingua franca, not English or Chinese. Artificial Intelligence could combine language and math into a new paradigm for communication. Genetic engineering may compensate for the decline in S.A.T. scores. In any case, books will be regarded differently in the future. Whether the wisdom of the ages is preserved is unknown. Last edited by Fat Abe; 03-09-2013 at 06:42 PM. Reason: typo

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03-09-2013, 10:38 AM	#31
Pulpmeister Wizard Posts: 2,825 Karma: 29145056 Join Date: Nov 2011 Location: Perth Western Australia Device: kindle	I find Chaucer hard sledding, but comprehensible, although a lot of his vocabulary, and many idioms, are extinct. A glossary is helpful, and simple modernising of spelling makes a huge difference. Shakespeare is much better heard and seen than read--the plays were meant to be performed, not read. It might be interesting so see what people 100 years ago thought might be read in 100 years' time, and see how wrong they were. Like all predictions of distant future, they are almost certainly wrong. Inevitably, those books that are new today and still being read in 100 years will be the survivors of a long winnowing process performed by countless readers over the generations. Fun speculating, though! It's comforting to know that any guesses we make here, today, of what we think will be read 100 years from know will be proved wrong. And we will not be around to feel embarrassed!

03-09-2013, 06:25 PM	#37
BeccaPrice Wizard Posts: 2,146 Karma: 11174187 Join Date: Jan 2011 Device: Sony 350, K3-3G, K4SO, KPW	Our library has, for its size, an excellent and huge audiobook library - but we have a high population of elderly and shut-ins, who seem to use audiobooks more than they do paper books. On the other hand, we have a pathetic ebook collection.

03-09-2013, 10:09 PM	#39
Lemurion eReader Posts: 2,750 Karma: 4968470 Join Date: Aug 2007 Device: Note 5; PW3; Nook HD+; ChuWi Hi12; iPad	I don't see 10,000 books as being a reasonable goal for most: that's about a book every two days for 60 years. I do think the increased prevalence of audiobooks may limit the numbers even more. I known one reason I avoid them is that I just can't afford the time. Stephen King's Under the Dome is just under 1100 pages in hardcover. I can read that in about 8-10 hours without much difficulty. The unabridged audiobook is over 34 hours.

03-13-2013, 02:23 PM	#44
ManosHandsOfFate Addict Posts: 298 Karma: 1537324 Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Chicago Device: Nook, K3, Fire, Nexus 7	Bestseller lists don't appear to be an indicator.

03-13-2013, 02:36 PM	#45
Fat Abe Man Who Stares at Books Posts: 1,826 Karma: 10606722 Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: 50th State, USA. Also, PA, NY, CA, and elsewhere. Device: All of the Above	If one wonders how America became a superpower, one needs to study its history, and especially its battles. Foote's trilogy is massive in scope, and considered one of the eleven best works on the Civil War. http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...civil-war.html Non-Americans may wonder why we continue to be fascinated by a war that ended a century and a half ago. It was a war where the winning side was perceived to be the one in the right (at least morally). The subject makes me wince. It is very touchy in some circles, and not the kind of topic you discuss in a friendly debate. But if anyone wants to know why Hitler and Hirohito were destroyed in WW 2, the answer is that America managed to stay "one" nation after the Civil War, despite our many disagreements, which persist to this day.