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Old 06-07-2012, 08:46 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by Fbone View Post
Remember, this is a jury trial, if all parties don't settle first. The "court" don't need evidence. Anything and everything can be discussed in jury deliberations.
Anything and everything?
That would be a very sloppy judge that lets that happen.
The opinions from the judge so far don't look all that sloppy.

But hey, let's wait and see.
A year ago everybody was sure the DOJ would *never* sue because, after all, SCOTUS found Agency Pricing to be legal. (For *one* company.)

We'll all place our metaphorical bets and we'll watch the trial. When all is said and done, some will be cheering and some will be disappointed.
And then we'll move to the next "fiery debate".

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Old 06-07-2012, 08:53 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by fjtorres View Post
Anything and everything?
That would be a very sloppy judge that lets that happen.
The opinions from the judge so far don't look all sloppy.

But hey, let's wait and see.
A year ago everybody was sure the DOJ would *never* sue.
The judge can't control it. She won't be present during jury deliberations.
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Old 06-07-2012, 09:27 PM   #63
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Like the deals B&N and Borders were getting when Amazon started out?
Somehow, Amazon managed to grow past that Barrier-to-entry(TM).
So far, others (Kobo!) seem to be doing just fine and Baker and Taylor seem to think they can do fine despite a "fashionably late" start.
Neither B&N nor Borders ever had the England language book market share one can suspect Amazon will have when eBooks triumph. And, remember, except among Amazon customers, they haven't triumphed yet. As of April 2012:

E-books last year accounted for 20.2 percent of all books sold in the U.S., up from 7.3 percent in 2010, according to Bowker Market Research. But that mass adoption of the digital word is still far off in one of Europe’s most-literate nations, Germany, where e-books account for only 1 percent of all book sales, according to a report published last month by the market research firm GdK.

The rest of Europe tends to be closer to Germany than the US here.

Now, maybe Amazon will stumble. But if publishers were to take the attitude sometimes seen in this thread, of equating Amazon with Borders, and assuming Amazon will similarly fail to gain market control, they really would be living in the past.


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Interestingly, it's worth noting that the DOJ was asked to investigate Amazon in 2009 and nothing came of it.
Most companies with big market share eventually get anti-trust attention. And yet, roughly half the time, anti-trust changes fail to stick. That's because there is advantage to operating on the edge of anti-trust violations. Open and shut cases are unlikely.

It's highly likely that, as the publishers say, when the executives of the various companies spoke to each other, they were acting under advice of counsel. They were probably trying to step right up to the line without going over. This year, whether Apple and the publishers went over the line is the issue. If they get a big enough market share, Amazon's turn will come.

Last edited by SteveEisenberg; 06-07-2012 at 09:35 PM.
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Old 06-07-2012, 11:59 PM   #64
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Why?
The lawsuit is about collusion--the reasons floated as rationale are factually irrelevant to the question whether the law was broken or not, which is what the court will be concerned about.
This, a thousand times this. The publishers either colluded or they didn't; it makes no difference to the legal question of whether or not they acted illegally if they only did it because they were just protecting those poor, poor consumers from mean ol' Amazon.

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Old 06-08-2012, 06:13 AM   #65
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I'm afraid your analysis is faulty. Amazon's strategy is to sell ebooks AS A WHOLE at loss, in order to draw customers so that they can sell NON-BOOK items at a profit. Now, as the suit progresses, it may come out that Amazon makes money on ebooks over all. But most business analysts think Amazon is losing money on ebooks over all. Since Amazon doesn't realease sales figures, we don't know for sure, but that's the way to bet.
The DOJ says Amazon has consistently made money from its "e-book distribution business". So unless you, or your "business analysts" know something the DOJ doesn't......? Then your analysis is faulty or, as you admit, you really just don't know.
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Old 06-08-2012, 06:15 AM   #66
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It is both. When Amazon is threatened by competition, it sells at a loss and lets other parts of its business pay the bills. As soon as the competition disappears, Amazon increases prices so that ebooks support themselves. Then when someone else comes along who tries to undersell Amazon and be competitive, Amazon cuts prices to below cost again and lets other parts of its business support the ebooks. When the new competitor goes out of business because it can't sustain the losses, Amazon raises its prices so that ebooks support themselves. When a new competitor comes along and tries to compete with Amazon, Amazon cuts prices to below cost . . .

This is how it is done. This is how Amazon is likely to act because shareholders will demand profits. Is it guaranteed that Amazon will act this way? No, but how likely is it based on current practices that Amazon will let someone undercut it? Not likely at all.
See post above. The DOJ doesn't agree with you. I'd really like to see someone actually come up with some hard evidence for this line, instead of just repeating it over and over in the hope that that will make it true.
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Old 06-08-2012, 06:25 AM   #67
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However, bestsellers are a major part of the REVENUE a book store makes. On this forum, people constantly confuse sales with revenue. They aren't the same.
Actually in accounting terms they are. The phrases you seem to be searching for are "Gross profit", for income after Cost of sales but before operating expenses, or "Income from operations" for before tax income and "Net Income" for after tax income. However Sales = Revenue.
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Old 06-08-2012, 06:31 AM   #68
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Amazon CLAIMS that. I'm not sure the DOJ signed on to that claim in its filings. Most business analysts don't buy it.

At the end of discovery, we'll know for sure.
Paragraph 30 of the DOJ filing (also took about 30 seconds to find on Google)

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30. When Amazon launched its Kindle device, it offered newly released and bestselling e-books to consumers for $9.99. At that time, Publisher Defendants routinely wholesaled those e-books for about that same price, which typically was less than the wholesale price of the hardcover versionsof the sametitles, reflecting publishercost savings associated with the electronic format. From the time of its launch, Amazon's e-book distribution business has been consistently profitable, even when substantially discounting some newly released and bestselling titles.
Just as an aside, I do hope you're not paying those "business analysts" (who still remain anonymous) for any of their advice?
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Old 06-08-2012, 06:42 AM   #69
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I have thought a bit more about this.

The best point of comparison is WalMart. The book I've read that I'll be cribbing off a bit is The Wal-Mart Effect: How the World's Most Powerful Company Really Works - and How It's Transforming the American Economy.

WalMart does not dominate in general merchandise anywhere close to the degree that Amazon will dominate in books once the eBook revolution is more or less complete. And WalMart is just retail, whereas Amazon is more and more a publisher. But WalMart does have enough market share to hint at what could happen in a more extreme retail high-market-share situation.

WalMart can choose between raising prices a bit, or threatening suppliers with ruin unless they lower the wholesale price. Low prices are so ingrained in the WalMart culture that they mostly do the latter. And that's forced some good changes, such as an end to putting bottles of pills in unnecessary boxes.

But, in the case of books, continually pressuring suppliers to lower wholesale prices will not be so benign. Looking at Amazon as a publisher, I don't see them nurturing complex non-fiction projects. Instead, they are publishing the kind of books that could just as well be self-published. And publishers will be told to match that cost structure. I realize that this may or may not be a bad thing depending on what kind of books you read.

By the way, even WalMart dramatically raise prices from time to time. Does anyone remember how cheap it used to be get a cold soda there?
So, again, the argument comes back to "this will be bad for publishers" or "it won't be good for the books I read/some nebulous form of my version of societal good which is currently being subsidized by books I don't hold in such high regard".

It still doesn't prove the argument that Amazon will gain a stranglehold on the market and promptly demand to sell penny dreadfuls at $20 a pop.
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Old 06-08-2012, 07:49 AM   #70
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And according to the numbers I've seen posted around the web, Amazon's market share in e-books has dropped from around 90% to around 60% over the last couple of years.
Yes, that is correct. But the reason given for the drop is that agency pricing allowed sellers like B&N to compete. No bookseller whose primary revenue was reliant on selling ebooks was able to compete with Amazon and few tried. Agency pricing ensured that Amazon could no longer sell at below cost. It is worth reading B&N's opposition to the DOJ settlement agreement.
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Old 06-08-2012, 07:54 AM   #71
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I notice that all the charts that show that book prices are falling take into consideration all the self-published 0.99 wonders. I'd like to see an honest chart, that showed the prices of books from the big 6 - betcha that would show a substantial increase.
If you look at the charts included in B&N's reply to the DOJ settlement proposal, you will see that pricing for hardcovers has dropped since agency pricing. The pricing comparison is limited to the Agency 5 books.
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Old 06-08-2012, 07:57 AM   #72
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Didn't the DoJ consider that in their filings and state that whilst amazon do sell some books at a loss, their overall book side of the business is turning a profit and can stand on its own two feet, it's not subsidised by the other sides of the business?

Pretty sure I read that, but it has been a while since I read the filings.
No, that was never claimed by the DOJ; the DOJ no more knows for certain than do the analysts as Amazon has never divulged the information. The only thing known for certain is that on the $9.99 bestsellers, Amazon was selling them below cost. In fact, as part of the settlement, Amazon will have to show at least breakeven. However, since Amazon is not a party to the lawsuit or the settlement, I can't figure out how the DOJ will enforce that.
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Old 06-08-2012, 07:58 AM   #73
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But part of the new system is eBooks cannot be sold at a loss. Amazon would have to make money on them.
How does the DOJ enforce that when Amazon is not a party to the lawsuit and hasn't agreed to open its books to anyone?
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Old 06-08-2012, 09:02 AM   #74
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It is both. When Amazon is threatened by competition, it sells at a loss and lets other parts of its business pay the bills. As soon as the competition disappears, Amazon increases prices so that ebooks support themselves. Then when someone else comes along who tries to undersell Amazon and be competitive, Amazon cuts prices to below cost again and lets other parts of its business support the ebooks. When the new competitor goes out of business because it can't sustain the losses, Amazon raises its prices so that ebooks support themselves. When a new competitor comes along and tries to compete with Amazon, Amazon cuts prices to below cost . . .

This is how it is done. This is how Amazon is likely to act because shareholders will demand profits. Is it guaranteed that Amazon will act this way? No, but how likely is it based on current practices that Amazon will let someone undercut it? Not likely at all.
Amazon hasn't behaved as you're characterising them. They followed Apple's example and set a target price point and said New York Times best sellers will be this price. When others matched the price they didn't lower the price. If they were selling below cost it was because the supply chain wasn't reacting to the reality of the market place.

Amazon focuses on keeping the customer happy builds the market dominance (not monopoly) and then uses that market dominance to squeeze the supply chain. That's what the author's guild and publishers are afraid of. The fear mongering about them building a monopoly and extorting customers is just a smoke screen and people don't believe it.

Amazon has been building a strong negotiating power because of their market dominance and they will use it. The authors and publishers have something to fear but it is just negotiations. If Amazon wields the club too strong they will end up with nothing to sell. The publishers have had the big club for centuries and now they're not happy about someone else having a big club. It's business.
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Old 06-08-2012, 09:15 AM   #75
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Neither B&N nor Borders ever had the England language book market share one can suspect Amazon will have when eBooks triumph. And, remember, except among Amazon customers, they haven't triumphed yet. As of April 2012:

E-books last year accounted for 20.2 percent of all books sold in the U.S., up from 7.3 percent in 2010, according to Bowker Market Research. But that mass adoption of the digital word is still far off in one of Europe’s most-literate nations, Germany, where e-books account for only 1 percent of all book sales, according to a report published last month by the market research firm GdK.

The rest of Europe tends to be closer to Germany than the US here.

Now, maybe Amazon will stumble. But if publishers were to take the attitude sometimes seen in this thread, of equating Amazon with Borders, and assuming Amazon will similarly fail to gain market control, they really would be living in the past.




Most companies with big market share eventually get anti-trust attention. And yet, roughly half the time, anti-trust changes fail to stick. That's because there is advantage to operating on the edge of anti-trust violations. Open and shut cases are unlikely.

It's highly likely that, as the publishers say, when the executives of the various companies spoke to each other, they were acting under advice of counsel. They were probably trying to step right up to the line without going over. This year, whether Apple and the publishers went over the line is the issue. If they get a big enough market share, Amazon's turn will come.
If you are operating on the edge of anti-trust violations you better make sure that you have an anti-trust lawyer present during those meetings. Apparently the publishers did not.

Quote:
They said they had dozens of e-mails, the name of a Manhattan restaurant where CEOs from the publishing companies met, and in the state's complaint (filed the same day as the DOJ's) were charts illustrating the many phone calls made between the defendants. The government even claimed to know some of what was said. During these meetings, there wasn't an antitrust attorney present, DOJ lawyers made sure to note.
If you were like me, then you may have thought after reading about this that Apple and the publishers would eventually offer some good reason for these contacts. Who doesn't know that it looks bad -- real bad -- anytime competitors meet together to discuss pricing or share information?
Here's what I'm talking about: My music-industry sources say leaders at the four top record companies are involved in several joint ventures and they don't discuss so much as what's for lunch without an antitrust lawyer present. But in the papers Apple and the publishers filed with the court, a good explanation about why it was OK for them to meet and talk about pricing was conspicuously missing.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-574...-e-book-suits/
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