French ‘Three Strikes’ Law Slashes Piracy, But Fails to Boost Sales

[Greg Anos]

Originally Posted by aceflor

It is probably the only french person he would know of .....


One lobby group biased presentation of the also biased work of an opposite lobby group does not "bake" a valid news article. Never has, never will.

As your sig says so à propos : "Remember, no matter what they say, people don't want the truth, just their prejudices reinforced."

I agree with sabredog, and being french myself, in this particular case, I really know what I am talking about.

(I think your biases are showing...)

More seriously...Did the rate of hits to "pirate" sites go down after Hadopi? Answer - yes, dramatically. That's a fact. Some may have the opinion that that is good, others that that may be bad. I am voicing no opinion, merely observing a fact.

Second fact. Sales did not go up during the same period. Once again, that's a fact. Once again, I'm voicing no opinion, merely obsering a fact. I did not have these facts before I read the article.

Now I can evaluate my opinions with more facts than I had. I can also evaluate other opinions based on more facts. I don't see how this is bad. It might change my opinions, based on experimental tests. Because that is what France has done, effectively, is run a test on their populace. Does more rigorous legal sanctions reduce "piracy" as they drafters defined it? Does it cause former "pirates" to purchase instead of "pirating"? After a year, there are now numbers to check with. In 5 years there will be more rigorous numbers to work with (longer baseline). I don't see any reason to throw out the numbers because I don't like the source. I'll throw them out if I can find a more reliable source (and the original number prove to be wrong), but not until then...

RSE

[afv011]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

More seriously...Did the rate of hits to "pirate" sites go down after Hadopi? Answer - yes, dramatically.

I presume you mean hits originating from France. In that case, this does not prove much, as we all know how easy it is to mask the origin of a request.

[Greg Anos]

Originally Posted by afv011

I presume you mean hits originating from France. In that case, this does not prove much, as we all know how easy it is to mask the origin of a request.

True, but how many casual "pirates" go to that effort? The net packet traffic would help answer that question, but unfortunately, we don't have those stats...(And then again, how much legitimate streaming traffing growth occurred in France during the last year? Those numbers are hard to evaluate.)

[mr ploppy]

Originally Posted by aceflor

It is probably the only french person he would know of .....


One lobby group biased presentation of the also biased work of an opposite lobby group does not "bake" a valid news article. Never has, never will.

As your sig says so à propos : "Remember, no matter what they say, people don't want the truth, just their prejudices reinforced."

The various entertainment corporations post their annual profits every year, so those figures should be easy enough to verify. But you do have a point about the piracy statistics, since we only have a lobby group's word on those.

[HappyMartin]

Has anyone considered that the music got so awful people stopped buying it and couldn't even be bothered to pirate it.

Just a theory

[Andrew H.]

Originally Posted by HappyMartin

Has anyone considered that the music got so awful people stopped buying it and couldn't even be bothered to pirate it.

Just a theory

The timing would be pretty coincidental, though.

Grandpa.

[ATDrake]

Originally Posted by HappyMartin

Has anyone considered that the music got so awful people stopped buying it and couldn't even be bothered to pirate it.

"Only sick music makes money today." Friedrich Nietzsche, 1888.

[afv011]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

True, but how many casual "pirates" go to that effort? The net packet traffic would help answer that question, but unfortunately, we don't have those stats...(And then again, how much legitimate streaming traffing growth occurred in France during the last year? Those numbers are hard to evaluate.)

Casual pirates are probably the ones less tech-savvy, whereas the heavy ones would be more knowledgeable of how to mask their activities. I have no data to prove or disprove that piracy has gone down, but I am very sceptical that this Hadopi law has done anything to lessen piracy to any meaningful degree.

[aceflor]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

(I think your biases are showing...)

More seriously...Did the rate of hits to "pirate" sites go down after Hadopi? Answer - yes, dramatically. That's a fact. Some may have the opinion that that is good, others that that may be bad. I am voicing no opinion, merely observing a fact.

Second fact. Sales did not go up during the same period. Once again, that's a fact. Once again, I'm voicing no opinion, merely obsering a fact. I did not have these facts before I read the article.

Now I can evaluate my opinions with more facts than I had. I can also evaluate other opinions based on more facts. I don't see how this is bad. It might change my opinions, based on experimental tests. Because that is what France has done, effectively, is run a test on their populace. Does more rigorous legal sanctions reduce "piracy" as they drafters defined it? Does it cause former "pirates" to purchase instead of "pirating"? After a year, there are now numbers to check with. In 5 years there will be more rigorous numbers to work with (longer baseline). I don't see any reason to throw out the numbers because I don't like the source. I'll throw them out if I can find a more reliable source (and the original number prove to be wrong), but not until then...

RSE

Replace the word "pirate" sites with "torrent" sites, and you may be right. BUT.... the forums with private links have boomed, and if you know where to look (all in french sites indeed), you will find everywhere on "la toile" as we call it perfect guides of how to cover tracks. Believe me, again, anybody who wants to download knows where to go. So no, piracy has not gone down in France. Re-read Asterix, you'll get the feeling.

This whole hadopi/sales thema was the subject of a very entertaining dinner with friends last week. Anecdotic to you maybe, but considering one of the guests was very involved in the Hadopi project at first and is a well known figure in the french movie business, while another owns one of these forums, well, it was, as I said, very entertaining.
And we all agreed that everyone we know (including some of us) downloads legally, and illegally, and still goes to the movies if they feel the movie is worth it. Have a look at the movies in 2011 showing in France, they all were mediocre to rubbish. And let's not go into a discussion about "the untouchables" and "the artist"...The same for music btw. Au royaume des aveugles les borgnes sont rois !!! So why should sales go up ????

I don't see a correlation between sales and piracy, because sadly for Hadopi, there is none.

See, french me is getting all worked up again......Time to let go. I wish you a very interesting discussion, but the hypothesis used to build the issue tree is wrong.

[spellbanisher]

Originally Posted by HappyMartin

Has anyone considered that the music got so awful people stopped buying it and couldn't even be bothered to pirate it.

Just a theory

If bad music was the reason for declining music sales, then the boy band-bland alternative nineties should have been an awful decade for music sales.

[spellbanisher]

Originally Posted by afv011

Casual pirates are probably the ones less tech-savvy, whereas the heavy ones would be more knowledgeable of how to mask their activities. I have no data to prove or disprove that piracy has gone down, but I am very sceptical that this Hadopi law has done anything to lessen piracy to any meaningful degree.

The percentage of the population that is more tech saavy than being able to use a search engine is miniscule. If piracy was the predominant reason for music sales, then any reduction in casual piracy should reduce the decline in sales.

[rkomar]

Originally Posted by spellbanisher

If bad music was the reason for declining music sales, then the boy band-bland alternative nineties should have been an awful decade for music sales.

The early-to-mid nineties were a great period for alternative/punk bands. It was only when the big guys took over 'alternative' music towards the end of the decade that the steam went out of the movement and blandness was re-established. I know I stopped buying at that point.

[mr ploppy]

Originally Posted by afv011

Casual pirates are probably the ones less tech-savvy, whereas the heavy ones would be more knowledgeable of how to mask their activities. I have no data to prove or disprove that piracy has gone down, but I am very sceptical that this Hadopi law has done anything to lessen piracy to any meaningful degree.

Before unauthorised downloading became a mainstream activity (thanks mostly to the constant advertising of it in the press releases put out by the entertainment corporations that got picked up by the news), "casual pirates" would buy their downloads on CDR / DVDR at flea markets and the like.

When they started downloading their own for "free" that gave them more disposable income, and some of that might have been spent on other entertainment. Now that unauthorised downloading has moved back underground they will go back to buying CDR / DVDR from the people who used to sell them before.

[xg4bx]

Originally Posted by mr ploppy

Before unauthorised downloading became a mainstream activity (thanks mostly to the constant advertising of it in the press releases put out by the entertainment corporations that got picked up by the news), "casual pirates" would buy their downloads on CDR / DVDR at flea markets and the like.

When they started downloading their own for "free" that gave them more disposable income, and some of that might have been spent on other entertainment. Now that unauthorised downloading has moved back underground they will go back to buying CDR / DVDR from the people who used to sell them before.

and will thusly move back into true piracy in which counterfeiters are financially rewarded with cash money instead of just receiving a 'thanks' on a message board.

its a vicious cycle that will never end.

[HansTWN]

Originally Posted by xg4bx

and will thusly move back into true piracy in which counterfeiters are financially rewarded with cash money instead of just receiving a 'thanks' on a message board.

its a vicious cycle that will never end.

I can't agree with you here. The guy who is selling bootleg DVD's off the back of his truck for a buck a piece is a "true pirate", but a big website like The Pirate Bay which probably collects 100,000s of dollars in monthly ad revenue by providing an exchange for the warez is not?

Not to mention the fact that very few of those that upload material to websites would be willing to physically distribute DVDs on the street, even if they could make money doing so.