Konrath and friends take on Turow

[Synamon]

Originally Posted by rhadin

The question isn't whether Apple or Google have deeper pockets than Amazon. The question is whether they are willing to and capable of spending the money needed to compete against Amazon in what would be for Apple and Google niche product lines.

Remember that unlike Amazon, Apple and Google consistently think in terms of profit, giving return to shareholders; Bezos, unlike Apple and Google, is willing to lose scads of money and not give shareholders a return.

If we are going to name companies that could fund a competitor to Amazon, we shouldn't leave out ExxonMobil and IBM, among others. Yet I doubt these companies would be willing to spend the money needed to get into a price war regarding ebooks.

For none of the named companies -- except Amazon -- are books in any format a core business. They are peripheral businesses.

Apple and Google are actually in the ebook market so suggesting that Amazon's deep pockets were unique is silly. How about using Sony as an example? That's who Amazon was competing with in the early days after all. ebooks weren't a core business until Amazon sunk a ton of money into promoting both the Kindle and making ebooks widely availble via their technology. Hammering Amazon for a strategy that no one else selling books or anything else was willing to risk makes no sense.

[murraypaul]

Originally Posted by Synamon

Apple and Google are actually in the ebook market so suggesting that Amazon's deep pockets were unique is silly.

Apple are in the eBook storefront market, but they are not in the eBook market in the way that Amazon and Google are. They just want to take their 30% and move on.

[ProfCrash]

The Publishers are villainizing Amazon because Amazon took the time to focus on building up an e-book store that made people want to buy e-books and an e-reader.

Sony was Amazon's first real competition and the Sony bookstore sucked. Truth be told, it isn't all that great today. Amazon came on the scene and realized that the only way to sell an e-reader was to sell e-books. They asked, demanded, negotiated, with the Publishers to make the e-book available the same day as the hardback. I am guessing that the Publishers said sure because they didn't think anyone would actually buy the e-book. Amazon discounted best sellers to $9.99 because it was an attractive price point. People paid an insane amount for Kindles (I got in on the K1 after the first price cut when the Kindle was only $349) and started buying e-books. Publishers appeared to be shocked that people would pay that much for an e-reader and then actually buy the books.

Eventually BN entered the game with the Nook. By the time BN got into the game, Amazon was well established and people thought of the Kindle as the E Reader. I think the K2 had been released so there was no removable battery and memory card (both on the K1) which a small group of people jumped on. They really liked the library lending and that you could shop at multiple stores. The problem was that the BN store was not that great and the Sony store still sucked.

At some point in time the Kobo and IPad came out. By this time, e-books were outselling Hardback books and, I think, Paperbacks. Publishers were freaking out because they had no idea how to deal with e-books and their profit margin on an e-book was less then it was on a hardback book. Customers had not responded well when they tried to stagger the hardback and e-book release (I know that there are several books I didn't buy because it was not available on release date and it pissed me off that the Publisher was screwing with me).

Apple wanted to open IBooks but knew it would lose to Amazon because of Amazons price point and the size of Amazons selection and through the Publishers an illegal life preserver called Agency Publishing.

Through all of this, Amazon is still the largest e-book store and the Kindle is selling like gang busters. People on this board and other boards that I read have admitted that they buy books from Amazon for their Sony and Nooks because those books are not available in EPub and they convert them to be able to read them. This tells me that the other bookstores have had several years to build themselves up so that they are competitive with Amazon and have not been able to do so even with the Publishers colluding with Apple.

The Publishers have lost money because of this deal. The Publishers made more money per e-book when Amazon set the price and Amazon lost money on all of the best sellers. Authors lost money because the Publishers were not making as much so their royalty checks were smaller. Amazon made money because it had to sell the books at a higher price point. Amazon launched programs that have benefited Indie authors that EPub users hate, like the exclusive publish program, but which seems to have helped more then a few Indie authors.

So what is the moral of this story?

I have no clue. I know that Amazon set out to build a successful e-reader and e-book store and did. Even with the collusion between the Publishers and Apple, Amazon still has an insanely successful bookstore that is making more money now then it was before Agency Pricing and Kindles are selling well. There are some new e-readers out there but their bookstores still do not match Amazons. I have no idea what I am suppose to take away from this.

[stonetools]

Lets face, JA Konrath is so pro Amazon that he really should have "spokesman for Amazon " on his business card.It doesn't mean that we should discount his arguments out of hand: but it does mean that we should examine his pro Amazon arguments with great care.

[murraypaul]

Originally Posted by ProfCrash

At some point in time the Kobo and IPad came out. By this time, e-books were outselling Hardback books and, I think, Paperbacks.

I don't think that is true now, let alone then.

[vaughnmr]

Originally Posted by murraypaul

I don't think that is true now, let alone then.

It is at Amazon, don't know about the rest of the world.

[vaughnmr]

Originally Posted by stonetools

Lets face, JA Konrath is so pro Amazon that he really should have "spokesman for Amazon " on his business card.It doesn't mean that we should discount his arguments out of hand: but it does mean that we should examine his pro Amazon arguments with great care.

I'm not sure I'd call him "pro-Amazon" but "anti-publisher". He sure has poked a few holes in the FUD the publishers are trying to spread.

[jgaiser]

Originally Posted by murraypaul

I don't think that is true now, let alone then.

This was posted in March of last year, but I doubt if hardbacks and paperbacks have made any unexpected advances

January E-book Sales Soar, Top Hardcover, Mass Market Paperback
http://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/b...paperback.html

[monkeyluis]

Originally Posted by stonetools

Lets face, JA Konrath is so pro Amazon that he really should have "spokesman for Amazon " on his business card.It doesn't mean that we should discount his arguments out of hand: but it does mean that we should examine his pro Amazon arguments with great care.

I read a blog post of his that said he didn't care how you got his books, even pirating. He seems to like amazon, as an author, because it is easier to deal with than any other means.

[Penforhire]

I don't know how you can say Apple is not in the same business as Amazon with regard to e-books. They have their own hardware (iPad, iPhone) and sell books locked into their own form of DRM. To me they are absolutely a competitor on equal footing with Amazon.

Not only that but I also blame the agency model on Apple's entry to the market. If Amazon was "all that and a bag of chips" then it would not have taken Apple's market entry to change the pricing structure.

Google is not yet on equal footing but they're trying. Windows 8 and upcoming Win tablets may yet provide ANOTHER serious e-book market player. Too early to say but it seems likely to me.

[ProfCrash]

Apple and Goggle do not put the same emphasis on the e-book as a profit maker as Amazon does. Amazon is clearly emphasizing the Kindle Line and e-books as a part of its business plan. Apple has the IBook store but I don't see it being emphasized the same way Amazon emphasizes the Kindle E-book store.

This is not a surprise to me, Steve Jobs did not think that enough people read to make building a dedicated e-book reader profitable so why would the company embrace the IBook store? Sony has been in the e-book industry longer then Amazon and its bookstore is still, well, laughable. BN is a bookstore and its e-book store is still lagging behind Amazons.

All I am saying is that one reason that Amazon scares the crap out of the Publishers is that Amazon has put the e-reader and e-book on display as an important part of its business plan. The other e-reader/e-book stores still have not followed Amazons suit.

So part of the reason why Amazon is a dominant player is because Amazon has focused on this particular niche industry and the others are still lagging.

[fjtorres]

Konrath and co do have an axe to grind but it is a sharp and witty one.
And it's not pro-Amazon but pro-author.
He is a lot like a recently divorced person who sees the ex- promoting themselves for sainthood; he knows better and has no problem telling everybody the "saint" has clay feet.

Now, can't we just *once* dispense with the whole "Amazon *might* do harm *someday* if they're not stopped *now*" smokescreen and focus on the *actions* of the BPHs for a while? 'Cause when the case gets to court the ruling will be on the basis of collusion and price increases, not hypothetical "evils" avoided.

BTW, does anybody know when the next election of the Publishers' Guild is?
I'm wondering if Turow will have a challenger for the role of Chief Apologist.

[stonetools]

FWIW, publishing consultant Mike Shatzkin agrees with Turow- and believes that Amazon will end up squeezing authors just as it squeezed publishers. He bases his belief on the prior actions of Amazon.

[fjtorres]

Gotta love tea leaf readers predicting other people's actions.
Not that any of it matters what with the Maya Apocalypse coming any day now.
Here, try this:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworst...an-amazon-one/

What I think is being missed here is the latest thinking in monopolies, their creation and maintenance. Bryan Caplan:

“Three decades ago, a model came along to challenge this mindset: the contestable market model. In the contestable market model, a single firm often behaves exactly like a perfectly competitive firm. Why? Because of potential competition. Sure, your firm may be the sole supplier of a good right now. But if you raise your price above the competitive level, all sorts of competitors might suddenly spring up. To prevent this from happening, you need to keep your prices so low than no potential competitor bothers to become an actual competitor.

The moment Amazon even *thinks* of gouging customers, a dozen sharks will jump into the game. Their entire business is about selling cheap ebooks; the moment they stop being the place for cheap ebooks, they stop having an ebook business.
(Look at Paypal's little reversal on censorship. The moment they annoyed consumers, accounts started closing in droves.)

Welcome to the 21st century; it is *nothing* like the 19th.

[JSWolf]

Originally Posted by Blue Tyson

Yeah, his books are really good.

The problem is he's taken his latest John Rain book and made it unavailable for people who have previously read the series in ePub. That to me is not a nice thing to do for people who like the series and read eBooks in ePub.