Is Apple betting the farm on the new iPad (iPad3 or iPadHD or ?)?

[HappyMartin]

Originally Posted by afv011

On the other hand, maybe Apple is starting to feel the pressure



Source

The only pressure they have to deal with is manufacturing in sufficient quantities to meet demand. And then they have the inconvenience of having to find a safe place to stash enough money to bail out the Greek economy. I could use some of that type of pressure.

Sorry, just been difficult but I think the rumors of Apples death are greatly exaggerated.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by HappyMartin

Sorry, just been difficult but I think the rumors of Apples death are greatly exaggerated.

And then some.

The company has US$100Billion in the checking account. It's net worth is 4x that. Recent estimates are they could possibly grow by 50% their market capitalization in the next few years. And that is just off iPad.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspe...le-run-to-700/

Or, put another way; a quarter of their current net worth is sheer liquidity.
This is what it means:
http://www.intomobile.com/2012/01/28...ash-explained/

Or, a bit easier: they have two full years worth of gross revenue and 7 years worth of net profit just cluttering their books.

Yeah, they're in imminent danger of disappearing.
(sigh)

[murraypaul]

Originally Posted by murraypaul

The first batch from the UK Apple store has already sold out, and you now can't order for a March 16th delivery.
Of course we don't know if that is because demand is very high, or supply was low.
The US store still has all models stocked for a March 16th delivery. The French and German stores are saying 19th March.

The French, German, Swiss and Japanese stores have now joined the UK one in quoting 2-3 weeks for delivery. The Australian store says dispatching March 22nd, the US store is now saying dispatching March 19th.
Still doesn't prove anything either way, but at least the UK isn't the odd one out anymore

[tubemonkey]

Originally Posted by SeaKing

Apple is merely showing that it is only another big manufacturer that has had a hell of a good run, but the charge is over, the great ideas are not still coming out. This iPad (3?) shows that. We have now had a lack luster iPhone and now a so so iPad. Two Apple mystique disappointments in a row. People are asking "what is going on?"

Make that three in a row. The iPod touch received no upgrade at all and totally skipped a cycle. Also, the iPhone 4S was released four months late.

[SeaKing]

Originally Posted by tubemonkey

Make that three in a row. The iPod touch received no upgrade at all and totally skipped a cycle. Also, the iPhone 4S was released four months late.

You are right. I had forgotten that.

Answering several other people---
The early adopters are still here. They will rush the registers to get the first of anything. Don't pay too much attention to that.
Apple lovers will not quickly lose their fervor. No more than those people trying to get the next batch of "special issue" Nike shoes.

As for money made, the question isn't about 2012, the question is about 2015. Apple is very successful right now and has inertia. The problem for it isn't 2012, 13, but more about 2014, and 2015. What Apple adding to its products as the new next thing needs a lot of data, and that gets more and more expensive to get on a cellular network. Apple is reaching a limit and its customers are reaching a limit.
Apple is is not making it's yearly upgrades so overwhelmingly new and wonderful that people MUST upgrade every year.

Remember that article about how the phone companies weren't making much money on iPhone because the customers upgraded each year. For most people and that is most, not all, there has to be a reason to update every year. Something really great, or they will move on to the next great thing to spend their money on.

[monkeyluis]

I disagree. I think it seems lackluster or a let down only because of so much leaked information and rumors. I wasn't all that impressed by the announcement either, because I already knew the ending. *spoiler alert*. Lol. So its hard for a company, any company to compete with its own hype & upstage the leaked info & rumors. I don't see any other company making its products or upgrades so overwhelmingly new & wonderful either. It's actually quite the opposite, look at the different models of tablets that come out or are announced on an almost weekly or biweekly basis. Especially Samsung, I don't even know which phone or tablet (s) are current or which are released or which are soon to be released. Apple at least is consistent, maybe consistently "lackluster", lol, but consistent none the less. Same release schedule, only a few models of one product, etc. anyway, just looking at it from the other angle.

[monkeyluis]

I'd also like to add that I think this is just the beginning. It's nit just the hardware, but the ecosystem. iCloud, iTunes, iTunes match, apple tv. All of this stuff is coming together to work seamlessly together & it's just the beginning that we are seeing. Any company that gives a damn has to have a plan for at least 3-5 years out. I'm sure apple has that plan & we're seeing those changes a bit at a time. The one thing I appreciate is that, from my perspective, they are not & don't seem to be rushing but trying to ensure that they get things right & working as best as possible. Sure there will be hiccups, some bigger than others, but they always come out on top. If they just wanted to put out a tablet they sure as hell could do that. But the experience of using the tablet in a very personable way they have gotten right. This is why they are ahead. I felt comfortable giving my mom an iPad 2 because I knew it would just work & I didn't have to provide any tech support. Maybe I'm a lazy son, but I'd rather her not be frustrated by a crappy user experience. seeing my mother enjoy technology is worth all the apple fanboy Isheep comments all over the net.

[HansTWN]

Originally Posted by monkeyluis

I disagree. I think it seems lackluster or a let down only because of so much leaked information and rumors. I wasn't all that impressed by the announcement either, because I already knew the ending. *spoiler alert*. Lol. So its hard for a company, any company to compete with its own hype & upstage the leaked info & rumors. I don't see any other company making its products or upgrades so overwhelmingly new & wonderful either. It's actually quite the opposite, look at the different models of tablets that come out or are announced on an almost weekly or biweekly basis. Especially Samsung, I don't even know which phone or tablet (s) are current or which are released or which are soon to be released. Apple at least is consistent, maybe consistently "lackluster", lol, but consistent none the less. Same release schedule, only a few models of one product, etc. anyway, just looking at it from the other angle.

Unlike Apple Samsung is trying to address the needs of everyone in the market (e.g. tablets in sizes of 7.0/7.7/8.9/10.1"). They are pushing the envelope with a 5.3" phone with Wacom (which is a raging success in Asia). And in the end, that is why I think Samsung will, sooner or later, overtake Apple. One size does not fit all, neither for phones nor for tablets. Now they are the ones taking bold steps with new designs (flexible displays coming up) and they make a lot of the components themselves.

Time will tell, Apple is in a great position now. Remember when the iPad 2 came out an the competition was scrambling to adjust their designs? Now tablets already announced and arriving shortly are even ahead of the iPad 3 in many ways. And they will upgrade again in 6 months, while Apple will take another 18 months. Things have changed, Apple will have to do more than just incremental upgrades every 12-18 months.

Apple fills the needs of many very well, but we are discussing long term market leadership here. They are far from number one in the PC and phone business, still many of you are very happy with Apple. That is great. But you can't stay number one for ever with just one device, and a software and eco system that caters just to a specific part of the market.

[monkeyluis]

I don't know that Samsung really cares about addressing the needs of consumers. I agree one size does not fit all. I think they have some nice tablets & I considered the galaxy note as a supplemental device. But so many different types, as you stated with the sizes. I think they are just throwing them at the wall & seeing what sticks. Focus on a couple & make those insanely great, spend more time doing some R&D to make the most wicked tablet out there. & for god sakes make it with ICS. & it's one thing to talk about devices, but let's see what they release. Flexible screens? We've heard about this for years. Sure it's cool as hell, but release it to the market already. How many tablets & phones ad eannounced at ces that never even see the light of day. I think Samsung has a great future, they have some great products now. We'll see.

& c'mon, 18 mos for incremental updates. That's a bit far off. Do you really think they are sitting on their thumbs until the month before to release an incremental upgrade. They make take their time, but you & I know both know they make damn well sure that everything works as best they can before releasing it. As I said, sure it's not always perfect, especially when your churning out 15+ million of these devices.

[HansTWN]

Originally Posted by monkeyluis

I don't know that Samsung really cares about addressing the needs of consumers. I agree one size does not fit all. I think they have some nice tablets & I considered the galaxy note as a supplemental device. But so many different types, as you stated with the sizes. I think they are just throwing them at the wall & seeing what sticks. Focus on a couple & make those insanely great, spend more time doing some R&D to make the most wicked tablet out there. & for god sakes make it with ICS. & it's one thing to talk about devices, but let's see what they release. Flexible screens? We've heard about this for years. Sure it's cool as hell, but release it to the market already. How many tablets & phones ad eannounced at ces that never even see the light of day. I think Samsung has a great future, they have some great products now. We'll see.

& c'mon, 18 mos for incremental updates. That's a bit far off. Do you really think they are sitting on their thumbs until the month before to release an incremental upgrade. They make take their time, but you & I know both know they make damn well sure that everything works as best they can before releasing it. As I said, sure it's not always perfect, especially when your churning out 15+ million of these devices.

I agree that Samsung made some of the tablet sizes as tests to see what works. But it seems most of them stick, all of them satisfy a big enough segment, apparently.

As for the 18 months, that was about the time frame between the iPhone models 4 and 4S. And the design remains the same, some internal hardware improvements and Siri are the only additional benefits. I would call that incremental change.

No, they are not sitting on their thumbs, but it seems they don't have any bold new ideas anymore (or they don't have the guts to bring them to market -- this is where losing Steve Jobs hurts them most. He could just decide to go for it. Now they have to tread more carefully). They are playing it safe. And that won't keep you on top.

[afv011]

Originally Posted by monkeyluis

They make take their time, but you & I know both know they make damn well sure that everything works as best they can before releasing it.

Right. Antennagate (iPhone 4), Battery issues (4S).

[VaporPunk]

Interesting article about the new Ipad's battery, if you can put aside the author's breathless over-hyping "it undoubtedly changes everything… again".

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/hardware/n...-battery/18985

[Prestidigitweeze]

I seem to be the only one here for whom the retinal display is the deciding factor. I could never have owned the original iPad or iPad2, but I can see myself getting daily use out of the one formerly known as 3.

I try to be an empiricist rather than a brand loyalist (though I don't always succeed). A few years ago, when I borrowed a friend's iPad1(TM) a month after launch, I learned that my actually owning it would have been an exercise in shrieking and throwing silverware at people.

First, there was the whooshing and flashing and special sparkle or wiggle that met my every gesture while first using Pages. Attempting to move an open quote mark to the beginning of a different word, I felt as if I were initiating an attack by a wizard in an RPG, and were forced to endure sound effects, thunderbolts and heroic music when all I wanted was for an enemy team to lose health points. Even most games allow you to shut off the animation as an option. Pages didn't and it's supposed to be a glorified word processing program.

Second, the touchscreen felt far less exact than a physical keyboard. For grocery lists and address book functions, the touchscreen was fine. But for the mechanical text entry of a novel, few gestures or pop-ups were humble enough to be exact or reliable enough to be seamless. It was clear I'd have to buy the external keyboard to get any use out of the fragile beast.

Third, and the worst problem for me, was screen resolution. Something about that native resolution, the IPS screen itself (however pretty it looked from different angles) and the focus on special gesturing made my eyes feel fatigued after just a little reading. I stare at unedited books and copy almost eight hours a day, so I have to be careful about that.

I had a much less fatiguing experience with the iPhone 4's retinal screen if not the phone itself.

But that was before the iPad non-3.

The newest iterations, both of the iPad and Pages, address many of my original complaints. In fact, I might easily have made plans to buy an iPad (just as the world seemed to discover Android tablets) if not for two things:

• Lion's adoption of iOS as a model, leaving many professionals without a nuanced UI and making file tweaks less useful for professional musicians and editors. I'd counted on geeks writing tech apps and plugins for the iPad, not the Mac OS's embracing of iOS in all its inflexible simplicity.
  
• Apple's entry into the book market, which created perhaps the worst form of DRM so far. Even a certain sorcerer's apprentice seems to be stuck. I'm all for the flexibility of reading pdfs on an iPad and not an eInk device. But the tablet I choose for that purpose should not be tempting me constantly to buy books I can't back up or read on other devices.

[John F]

Originally Posted by SeaKing

...

As for money made, the question isn't about 2012, the question is about 2015. Apple is very successful right now and has inertia. The problem for it isn't 2012, 13, but more about 2014, and 2015. What Apple adding to its products as the new next thing needs a lot of data, and that gets more and more expensive to get on a cellular network. Apple is reaching a limit and its customers are reaching a limit.

...

SeaKing, let's change our bet to fiscal years 2011 and 2015. I triple dog dare you!

[HansTWN]

Originally Posted by John F

SeaKing, let's change our bet to fiscal years 2011 and 2015. I triple dog dare you!

Reminds me of the "I bet you $10,000" I recently heard someone say in a debate. Since this isn't the politics section I shall not mention any names...