Will color tablets replace e-ink readers in the short term? - Page 2

jocampo · 03-09-2012, 10:30 AM

All... very interesting points.

Which make thing: are those that want a dedicated eink device (no browser, no distractions, just reading) a minority?

What I'm seeing is more and more eink devices including stuff that honestly, we do not need.

Real books do not have "browsers" :-) ... or ability to play mp3s. When I am reading a book, I just want to read the book.

murraypaul · 03-09-2012, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jocampo

Which make thing: are those that want a dedicated eink device (no browser, no distractions, just reading) a minority?

Absolutely, yes.
The market for all-purpose devices is much larger than for pure reading devices.

QuantumIguana · 03-09-2012, 10:34 AM

I don't think so. Tablets are going to take a bigger share of the e-reader market, but dedicated e-readers have too many advantages to go away altogether. One advantage is the longer battery life, and this is a big one. You don't need to plug in you're e-ink reader very often. They also tend to be lighter, and cheaper. And many people find e-ink much easier to read them LCD. I tried the Kindle Fire, and I just couldn't see myself reading on LCD. I'll do it in a pinch, but not for my main reading.

Not that long ago, e-ink was right out of science fiction. I think the future is bright for e-ink. Just look at your computer desktop. Much of the screen isn't changing. If this was an e-ink display, your monitor wouldn't have to spend any energy to keep displaying those parts that weren't changing. We'll have color e-ink on the market sooner or later, and it is reasonable to think that refresh rates for e-ink will improve, and rival LCD displays.

QuantumIguana · 03-09-2012, 10:38 AM

Back in 1986, I bought a portable CD player. It cost $250. The slightest bump would make it skip. It had an heavy external battery pack, that took C-cell batteries. It would drain the batteries in a few hours. Now you can get a CD player for $10 that is far better than that CD player that I had. So, it wouldn't surprise me to see an e-ink reader for $30 in the next few years.

TimW · 03-09-2012, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuantumIguana

I don't think so. Tablets are going to take a bigger share of the e-reader market, but dedicated e-readers have too many advantages to go away altogether. One advantage is the longer battery life, and this is a big one. You don't need to plug in you're e-ink reader very often. They also tend to be lighter, and cheaper. And many people find e-ink much easier to read them LCD. I tried the Kindle Fire, and I just couldn't see myself reading on LCD. I'll do it in a pinch, but not for my main reading.

Not that long ago, e-ink was right out of science fiction. I think the future is bright for e-ink. Just look at your computer desktop. Much of the screen isn't changing. If this was an e-ink display, your monitor wouldn't have to spend any energy to keep displaying those parts that weren't changing. We'll have color e-ink on the market sooner or later, and it is reasonable to think that refresh rates for e-ink will improve, and rival LCD displays.

Battery life...that's a big reason why I won't be retiring the e-ink. If I know I'm going somewhere (e.g. doctor's office) where I will likely have ample time to read, I don't want to see a "low battery" warning when I open the cover of my reader. If I need to check my email or have a glance at MR, I have free 3G on my KK if there's no Wi-Fi available. No, I'm too cheap for a smart phone...dumb phone for me.

jocampo · 03-09-2012, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by murraypaul

Absolutely, yes.
The market for all-purpose devices is much larger than for pure reading devices.

So let's go back and repeat what I said.

From a commercial point of view, if eink devices do not sell as good as they were one or two years ago, they will be history soon.

murraypaul · 03-09-2012, 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jocampo

So let's go back and repeat what I said.

From a commercial point of view, if eink devices do not sell as good as they were one or two years ago, they will be history soon.

Dedicated ones that do nothing but read, maybe. But I don't see how that extends to ones that have other functions, such as browsing. How does the existence of those functions detract from reading?

QuantumIguana · 03-09-2012, 11:09 AM

I have a dumb phone as well, a prepaid cell phone. It's cheap and does the job.

But even if sales dip on e-ink readers, the demand for them won't disappear. Someone will fill that demand, if you want an e-ink reader, someone will sell you one. Much of the work has been done, the price of the e-ink displays has dropped because of how many e-ink readers there are out there. The Kindle DX was expensive because the demand as low. E-ink offers too many advantages to disappear.

Synamon · 03-09-2012, 11:17 AM

Reduced eye strain and battery life are the two big advantages of e-ink, neither are an issue for someone reading 20 minutes a day. E-ink readers really only appeal to avid readers which is less than 20% of the population, and even some of those people prefer reading on backlit screens. I love my Kindle, but would never recommend it for someone who reads a few books a year, they are much better off with a multipurpose tablet or a paperback they buy at the airport once in a while.

I'm not sure why any of this is a surprise to people, e-ink readers are a niche and will eventually reach saturation and the sales growth will stop. I don't think that means e-ink will disappear, it's still the best technology for that niche and someone will continue to make replacements, probably Amazon in order to maintain their dominance in ebooks.

QuantumIguana · 03-09-2012, 11:29 AM

E-books didn't catch on until the e-ink e-reader came out, then it exploded. People didn't want to read books on a computer screen. People who read a lot may prefer e-ink, but they are the market segment that matter the most in the book market, because they are the ones who buy the most books. LCD is old tech, e-ink is just getting started.

Kali Yuga · 03-09-2012, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jocampo

Which make thing: are those that want a dedicated eink device (no browser, no distractions, just reading) a minority?

Again, that doesn't matter.

What matters is whether the people who own and use dedicated ebook devices buy lots of ebooks. Especially if the tablets are used a large percentage of the time for games, movies, email and the like.

If 5% of the reading public buys 20% of the books, and they prefer dedicated ebook readers, then dedicated devices will stick around.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jocampo

What I'm seeing is more and more eink devices including stuff that honestly, we do not need. Real books do not have "browsers" :-) ... or ability to play mp3s.

eInk devices have had those same capabilities for years, that's nothing new.

jocampo · 03-09-2012, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

Again, that doesn't matter.

What matters is whether the people who own and use dedicated ebook devices buy lots of ebooks. Especially if the tablets are used a large percentage of the time for games, movies, email and the like.

If 5% of the reading public buys 20% of the books, and they prefer dedicated ebook readers, then dedicated devices will stick around.

eInk devices have had those same capabilities for years, that's nothing new.

It does matter!

I'm talking about the device itself not ebooks.

There are several ways to read ebooks. But if people prefer tablets instead of eink devices, then eink devices wont be produced anymore at some point. If that will happen or not, again, is pure speculation and will depend of people's preference and market.

Also, the eink device we have now, it's not the same one we had before.

azazel1024 · 03-09-2012, 03:33 PM

Meh, unlikely. How many people still buy vinyl? But they keep making record players. I think within reason, the "cat is out of the bag" when it comes to eInk readers. Now I don't think that means it is impossible for eInk to disappear. I think what it will require is a similar ultra low power display technology that doesn't potentially introduce eye strain among some people. Mirasol MIGHT, I emphasis, MIGHT replace eInk at some point. It is still higher power drain and IIRC is NOT stable without an induced current...the current required is just incredibly tiny, but they will not create devices with 1+ month battery lives with cell phone sized batteries reading an hour or two per day. More like battery lives of maybe a week or two reading an hour or two a day.

I think it is the combination of no induced eye strain (which most people have with LCD screens, even if it takes hours to induce eye strain) as well as extremely low power use which are the winners for eInk when it comes to a "reading platform". If another display technology offers that at the same or lower price and/or has some other advantages than yes, eInk will die away. At the moment, LCD technology cannot do that. The Pixel Qi also cannot do this. Mirasol might be a good step in the right direction, but is not stable and is still higher power draw (if still a lot lower than LCD displays).

Now down the road if tablets/LCDs get good enough and potentially low enough in price, eInk or similar dedicated eReaders might just about disappear. However, you are probably still going to have at least one or two niche companies producing them in limited quanities, even if it means your eReader is $300 and they only sell 20,000 units a year.

ilovejedd · 03-09-2012, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Synamon

I'm not sure why any of this is a surprise to people, e-ink readers are a niche and will eventually reach saturation and the sales growth will stop. I don't think that means e-ink will disappear, it's still the best technology for that niche and someone will continue to make replacements, probably Amazon in order to maintain their dominance in ebooks.

+1. I think we're reaching the point where a lot of avid readers already have e-ink devices. The current price point of e-ink readers (particularly the Kindle) has lowered barrier to entry that folks who were on the fence before have probably bought one by now.

For anyone who already has an e-ink reader with Pearl display, what's the incentive to upgrade? I'm still using a PRS-350 and it still serves my needs very well. Eventually, we'll just see people buying e-ink readers to replace broken old readers but I doubt we'll see the tremendous growth we've seen the past couple of years since the introduction of the Kindle. Say what you want against Amazon but there's no questioning they brought e-ink readers and ebooks to the mainstream consciousness.

QuantumIguana · 03-09-2012, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jocampo

But if people prefer tablets instead of eink devices, then eink devices wont be produced anymore at some point.

That would happen only if no one wanted e-ink. As long as their exists a market for e-ink, someone will fill it.

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03-09-2012, 10:30 AM	#16
jocampo Layback feline Posts: 3,034 Karma: 6980745 Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: USA Device: Oasis 2nd gen, Sony DPTS1, iPad Pro 10.5"	All... very interesting points. Which make thing: are those that want a dedicated eink device (no browser, no distractions, just reading) a minority? What I'm seeing is more and more eink devices including stuff that honestly, we do not need. Real books do not have "browsers" :-) ... or ability to play mp3s. When I am reading a book, I just want to read the book.

03-09-2012, 10:34 AM	#18
QuantumIguana Philosopher Posts: 2,034 Karma: 18736532 Join Date: Jan 2012 Device: Kindle Paperwhite 2 gen, Kindle Fire 1st Gen, Kindle Touch	I don't think so. Tablets are going to take a bigger share of the e-reader market, but dedicated e-readers have too many advantages to go away altogether. One advantage is the longer battery life, and this is a big one. You don't need to plug in you're e-ink reader very often. They also tend to be lighter, and cheaper. And many people find e-ink much easier to read them LCD. I tried the Kindle Fire, and I just couldn't see myself reading on LCD. I'll do it in a pinch, but not for my main reading. Not that long ago, e-ink was right out of science fiction. I think the future is bright for e-ink. Just look at your computer desktop. Much of the screen isn't changing. If this was an e-ink display, your monitor wouldn't have to spend any energy to keep displaying those parts that weren't changing. We'll have color e-ink on the market sooner or later, and it is reasonable to think that refresh rates for e-ink will improve, and rival LCD displays.

03-09-2012, 10:38 AM	#19
QuantumIguana Philosopher Posts: 2,034 Karma: 18736532 Join Date: Jan 2012 Device: Kindle Paperwhite 2 gen, Kindle Fire 1st Gen, Kindle Touch	Back in 1986, I bought a portable CD player. It cost $250. The slightest bump would make it skip. It had an heavy external battery pack, that took C-cell batteries. It would drain the batteries in a few hours. Now you can get a CD player for $10 that is far better than that CD player that I had. So, it wouldn't surprise me to see an e-ink reader for $30 in the next few years.

03-09-2012, 11:09 AM	#23
QuantumIguana Philosopher Posts: 2,034 Karma: 18736532 Join Date: Jan 2012 Device: Kindle Paperwhite 2 gen, Kindle Fire 1st Gen, Kindle Touch	I have a dumb phone as well, a prepaid cell phone. It's cheap and does the job. But even if sales dip on e-ink readers, the demand for them won't disappear. Someone will fill that demand, if you want an e-ink reader, someone will sell you one. Much of the work has been done, the price of the e-ink displays has dropped because of how many e-ink readers there are out there. The Kindle DX was expensive because the demand as low. E-ink offers too many advantages to disappear.

03-09-2012, 11:17 AM	#24
Synamon Lunatic Posts: 1,691 Karma: 4386372 Join Date: Dec 2011 Location: Land of the Loonie Device: Kindle Paperwhite and Keyboard, Kobo Aura, iPad mini, iPod Touch	Reduced eye strain and battery life are the two big advantages of e-ink, neither are an issue for someone reading 20 minutes a day. E-ink readers really only appeal to avid readers which is less than 20% of the population, and even some of those people prefer reading on backlit screens. I love my Kindle, but would never recommend it for someone who reads a few books a year, they are much better off with a multipurpose tablet or a paperback they buy at the airport once in a while. I'm not sure why any of this is a surprise to people, e-ink readers are a niche and will eventually reach saturation and the sales growth will stop. I don't think that means e-ink will disappear, it's still the best technology for that niche and someone will continue to make replacements, probably Amazon in order to maintain their dominance in ebooks.

03-09-2012, 11:29 AM	#25
QuantumIguana Philosopher Posts: 2,034 Karma: 18736532 Join Date: Jan 2012 Device: Kindle Paperwhite 2 gen, Kindle Fire 1st Gen, Kindle Touch	E-books didn't catch on until the e-ink e-reader came out, then it exploded. People didn't want to read books on a computer screen. People who read a lot may prefer e-ink, but they are the market segment that matter the most in the book market, because they are the ones who buy the most books. LCD is old tech, e-ink is just getting started.

03-09-2012, 03:33 PM	#28
azazel1024 Groupie Posts: 182 Karma: 346596 Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Ellicott City, MD Device: Nook simple touch, iPad 2	Meh, unlikely. How many people still buy vinyl? But they keep making record players. I think within reason, the "cat is out of the bag" when it comes to eInk readers. Now I don't think that means it is impossible for eInk to disappear. I think what it will require is a similar ultra low power display technology that doesn't potentially introduce eye strain among some people. Mirasol MIGHT, I emphasis, MIGHT replace eInk at some point. It is still higher power drain and IIRC is NOT stable without an induced current...the current required is just incredibly tiny, but they will not create devices with 1+ month battery lives with cell phone sized batteries reading an hour or two per day. More like battery lives of maybe a week or two reading an hour or two a day. I think it is the combination of no induced eye strain (which most people have with LCD screens, even if it takes hours to induce eye strain) as well as extremely low power use which are the winners for eInk when it comes to a "reading platform". If another display technology offers that at the same or lower price and/or has some other advantages than yes, eInk will die away. At the moment, LCD technology cannot do that. The Pixel Qi also cannot do this. Mirasol might be a good step in the right direction, but is not stable and is still higher power draw (if still a lot lower than LCD displays). Now down the road if tablets/LCDs get good enough and potentially low enough in price, eInk or similar dedicated eReaders might just about disappear. However, you are probably still going to have at least one or two niche companies producing them in limited quanities, even if it means your eReader is $300 and they only sell 20,000 units a year.