Silliness Predict the Date: Two Millionth Forum Post...

nrapallo · 02-22-2012, 10:48 PM

We are around post #1,950,000, so when do you think we will hit that 2,000,000th post?

Follow-up to Countdown to Mobileread.com's (Public Forum) One-Millionth Post...

Note: at the bottom of this linked page, in the "MobileRead Forums Statistics" section, the current number of Posts to date can be found!

The method I use to determine that 2000000th post is illustrated below:

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It uses the "time span" the # posts left to reach 2,000,000 (call it 'D') is needed to reach today's post # from the past and represents that as 'G' days. Then, 'G' days from now becomes the predicted date.

The first few times I have calculated these predictions have resulted in the same date i.e. April 1, 2012!

EDIT: Actual winning date was April 3, 2012 (with post #208342 being posted by pdurrant). Perhaps his mod powers are greater than first thought!

nrapallo · 02-22-2012, 11:08 PM

Ok, I predict

Spoiler:

... No really!

red_phoenix · 02-23-2012, 02:21 PM

I would like:

Spoiler:

nrapallo · 02-23-2012, 03:19 PM

I wonder if we should use "The Price is Right" rules, i.e. closes to, BUT NOT OVER!

HomeInMyShoes · 02-24-2012, 09:26 AM

April 6th, 2012. Obviously some may try to push that number quicker.

nrapallo · 02-27-2012, 06:56 PM

BTW, my prediction is still "right on target"....

Oh...., and in case of a tie, the earlier entry WINS........

Wins what? [bragging rights]

Daithi · 02-27-2012, 07:30 PM

$1

It won't let me post just characters.

AnemicOak · 02-27-2012, 07:51 PM

April 8th

silvan4now · 03-01-2012, 09:47 AM

I think on April 14

HomeInMyShoes · 03-01-2012, 09:52 AM

1,959,069 +a few probably.

nrapallo · 03-05-2012, 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nrapallo

BTW, my prediction is still "right on target"....

Uncanning! still on track!!! See post #1 for the method I use to determine that 2000000th post.

It uses the "time span" the # posts left to reach 2,000,000 (call it 'D') is needed to reach today's post # from the past and represents that as 'G' days. Then, 'G' days from now becomes the predicted date.

All the times I have updated these predictions have resulted in the same date i.e. April 1, 2012!

HomeInMyShoes · 03-06-2012, 09:53 AM

1,965,542

Looks like the pace is picking up slightly. It might be before the end of the month.

nrapallo · 03-12-2012, 11:14 AM

Twenty days to go, I think!

The updated results in post #1 still shows me that April 1, 2012 will be that date.

Is the method I use "flawed" or are we at mobileread.com so damn consistently chatty....

p.s. just so that you know, the post # predicted as being the 2,000,000th keeps increasing as the forum software uses on post # for both the members and moderators sections. Whereas the Total Posts only uses member post and excludes all moderator posts in that post count. The post # itself doesn't, so we can indirectly infer the number of moderator and/or deleted posts as well.

I know useless info, but someone has to keep these facts straight...

;rofl:

dreams · 03-14-2012, 03:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nrapallo

I know useless info, but someone has to keep these facts straight...

;rofl:[/SIZE]

Hey Nick.

I'll guess.. $2

Oh! and April 4th.

nrapallo · 03-14-2012, 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dreams

Hey Nick.

I'll guess.. $2

Oh! and April 4th.

Hi dreamy dreams, ... oh, ...

I'm not in a dream, ok then,

Hi dreams!

Great guess! As I recall, you were so close to actually being the 1,000,000th poster in July 2010 with post#1010823 (my official prediction then)!

02-23-2012, 02:21 PM	#3
red_phoenix Grand Sorcerer Posts: 18,417 Karma: 445850508 Join Date: Dec 2011 Device: Sony PRS-T1	I would like: Spoiler: April 13, 2012

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02-22-2012, 10:48 PM	#1
nrapallo GuteBook/Mobi2IMP Creator Posts: 2,958 Karma: 2530691 Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Toronto, Canada Device: REB1200 EBW1150 Device: T1 NSTG iLiad_v2 NC Device: Asus_TF Next1 WPDN	Predict the Date: Two Millionth Forum Post... We are around post #1,950,000, so when do you think we will hit that 2,000,000th post? Follow-up to Countdown to Mobileread.com's (Public Forum) One-Millionth Post... Note: at the bottom of this linked page, in the "MobileRead Forums Statistics" section, the current number of Posts to date can be found! The method I use to determine that 2000000th post is illustrated below: It uses the "time span" the # posts left to reach 2,000,000 (call it 'D') is needed to reach today's post # from the past and represents that as 'G' days. Then, 'G' days from now becomes the predicted date. The first few times I have calculated these predictions have resulted in the same date i.e. April 1, 2012! EDIT: Actual winning date was April 3, 2012 (with post #208342 being posted by pdurrant). Perhaps his mod powers are greater than first thought! Last edited by nrapallo; 04-03-2012 at 07:17 PM. Reason: indicates the method I use to "predict" that date and charts the results!!!

02-22-2012, 11:08 PM	#2
nrapallo GuteBook/Mobi2IMP Creator Posts: 2,958 Karma: 2530691 Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Toronto, Canada Device: REB1200 EBW1150 Device: T1 NSTG iLiad_v2 NC Device: Asus_TF Next1 WPDN	Ok, I predict Spoiler: April 1, 2012 ... No really!

02-23-2012, 03:19 PM	#4
nrapallo GuteBook/Mobi2IMP Creator Posts: 2,958 Karma: 2530691 Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Toronto, Canada Device: REB1200 EBW1150 Device: T1 NSTG iLiad_v2 NC Device: Asus_TF Next1 WPDN	I wonder if we should use "The Price is Right" rules, i.e. closes to, BUT NOT OVER!

02-24-2012, 09:26 AM	#5
HomeInMyShoes Grand Sorcerer Posts: 19,226 Karma: 67780237 Join Date: Jul 2011 Device: none	April 6th, 2012. Obviously some may try to push that number quicker.

02-27-2012, 06:56 PM	#6
nrapallo GuteBook/Mobi2IMP Creator Posts: 2,958 Karma: 2530691 Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Toronto, Canada Device: REB1200 EBW1150 Device: T1 NSTG iLiad_v2 NC Device: Asus_TF Next1 WPDN	BTW, my prediction is still "right on target".... Oh...., and in case of a tie, the earlier entry WINS........ Wins what? [bragging rights]

02-27-2012, 07:30 PM	#7
Daithi Publishers are evil! Posts: 2,418 Karma: 36205264 Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Rhode Island Device: Various Kindles	$1 It won't let me post just characters.

02-27-2012, 07:51 PM	#8
AnemicOak Bookaholic Posts: 14,391 Karma: 54969924 Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Minnesota Device: iPad Mini 4, AuraHD, iPhone XR +	April 8th

03-01-2012, 09:47 AM	#9
silvan4now Groupie Posts: 173 Karma: 224260 Join Date: Oct 2011 Device: none	I think on April 14

03-01-2012, 09:52 AM	#10
HomeInMyShoes Grand Sorcerer Posts: 19,226 Karma: 67780237 Join Date: Jul 2011 Device: none	1,959,069 +a few probably.

03-06-2012, 09:53 AM	#12
HomeInMyShoes Grand Sorcerer Posts: 19,226 Karma: 67780237 Join Date: Jul 2011 Device: none	1,965,542 Looks like the pace is picking up slightly. It might be before the end of the month.

03-12-2012, 11:14 AM	#13
nrapallo GuteBook/Mobi2IMP Creator Posts: 2,958 Karma: 2530691 Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Toronto, Canada Device: REB1200 EBW1150 Device: T1 NSTG iLiad_v2 NC Device: Asus_TF Next1 WPDN	Twenty days to go, I think! The updated results in post #1 still shows me that April 1, 2012 will be that date. Is the method I use "flawed" or are we at mobileread.com so damn consistently chatty.... p.s. just so that you know, the post # predicted as being the 2,000,000th keeps increasing as the forum software uses on post # for both the members and moderators sections. Whereas the Total Posts only uses member post and excludes all moderator posts in that post count. The post # itself doesn't, so we can indirectly infer the number of moderator and/or deleted posts as well. I know useless info, but someone has to keep these facts straight... ;rofl: