"Kindle is a only a transitional reading device." A Lawyer Predicts Amazon's Future

[stonetools]

Originally Posted by DiapDealer

By paying consumers (in discounts with the KSO) to put up with the ads. That's it. That's all that will work.

Without being given a "cookie," no one will volunteer their books to be ad-ed up. You keep touting the KSO as model that works, but it's just too young to make that call. I think you'll find that many KSO owners are noticing that the special offers (the main attraction in the first place) start tailing off relatively quickly. Once consumers stop receiving "payments," what reason will they have to even glance at the ads? The problem isn't only on the consumer end, either. Manufacturers don't pay for advertising if they see no return on it. And judging by the looks of things... not many companies are following Oil of Olay and Buick down this particular path. I wonder why that is?

Actually, ALL ad supported models work by paying consumers to look at ads. It's why broadcast Tv and radio are " free". Free-mium games work on the same principle. The KSO model has worked quite well- so far. Other models may also work.

[DiapDealer]

Actually, ALL ad supported models work by paying consumers to look at ads. It's why broadcast Tv and radio are " free". Free-mium games work on the same principle. The KSO model has worked quite well- so far. Other models may also work.

As I said, the special offers seem to be tailing off for the KSO. And no new big-name advertisers seem to be jumping on-board. You say; "worked quite well," I say; "pretty much tapped out."

[stonetools]

Originally Posted by DiapDealer

As I said, the special offers seem to be tailing off for the KSO. And no new big-name advertisers seem to be jumping on-board. You say; "worked quite well," I say; "pretty much tapped out."

If you look at the kindle boards, the only complaint seems to be that special offers are not available to other kindle owners. When people asked if the ads were annoying, here is a typical response:

I definitely think it is worth it. I don't find the ads annoying at all. I look forward to seeing the new ones. Just recently I got a $20 gift card for $10 and at the same time got $20 off of $30 or more of tools. Combining those two I got $30 worth of tools for free and still had my initial investment of $10 left on a gift card. I got the half off the lighted cover as well. There are some Oil of Olay ads but if you don't like them you just cycle the power and it will switch to a new one. The ads only show on the screen saver and on the last line of the home page. They don't show at all when reading. If you keep your kindle in a case (which you should anyway to protect it) you will rarely see the ads anyway.

AMAZON FORUM

I would have to say that the KSO has been a big success for Amazon. They are extending the model everywhere they can:

Kindle and Kindle 3G with Special Offers are already the bestselling Kindles, and customers report that they love the money-saving special offers. Today, Amazon.com, Inc. announced that Kindle and Kindle 3G with Special Offers customers will soon start receiving special offers from AmazonLocal on their Kindle screensavers when they aren't reading. AmazonLocal on Kindle with Special Offers is launching in New York City and expanding to all AmazonLocal cities later this year.

LINK

The news that the Special Offers model is "tapped out" apparently hasn't made it to Amazon customers or management. May be you should send them an email.

[DiapDealer]

Originally Posted by stonetools

If you look at the kindle boards, the only complaint seems to be that special offers are not available to other kindle owners. When people asked if the ads were annoying, here is a typical response:

You're just reading different threads than I am.

Now, though, the offers are dropping a bit in frequency and allure, plus they started blocking getting a second offer on the same account.

and in response:

This. I'm not sorry I got my KSO by any means, however, the "Buick", "Visa" and "Oil of Olay" type ads are a little tacky/irritating.

Haha. I noticed that some of the offers haven't been THAT great the last few weeks. But, I'm hoping for a killer holiday season with offers. I imagine that Amazon will probably do something fairly sweet within the next couple months.

It looks like those who have local.amazon.com available in their area will start seeing local offers on the KSO and the certificate will show up on the KSO to redeem locally.

Not much use here (or anywhere I could easily drive to, for that matter). Even though it is supposed to be LivingSocial deals, which do work here (not that there are many I'd ever want).

[stonetools]

Interestingly, you didn't provide a link. Link please?

I can quote lots of comments of KSO owners raving about how they love their KSOs. I think I can out-quote you if it came to a "quote shootout".

Even your quotes don't show any REGRET that they bought their KSOS- quite the contrary. They seem satisfied that it's been a good deal for them.

[DiapDealer]

Of course we could out-quote each other... that was the point. Quotes, don't a consensus make.

Even your quotes don't show any REGRET that they bought their KSOS- quite the contrary. They seem satisfied that it's been a good deal for them.

Exactly. That it's been a good deal for them. But it may or may not turn back into a pumpkin, once they've used up the best of the special offers.

And I repeat... besides Visa, Buick and Oil of Olay... who's fronting cash to get their ads placed on the Kindle? If the returns were substantial, wouldn't companies be scrambling to get their logo on a Kindle screen-saver?

[Andrew H.]

The KSO is very different from an ad-supported book, for a couple of reasons.

The first reason is that you will look at ads on the KSO over the lifetime of the device (1-2 years, presumably). This gives Amazon a long time to make up the $25 discount you received. With a book, [assuming a 20% discount on a $10 book] by contrast, the publisher has approximately 8 hours to make back the $2 discount...because after that, you're done with the book.

The second important difference is that Amazon is able to present ads on the KSO without interfering with the reading experience at all. Using a bookstore analogy, it's like having ads on the shelves of the bookstore, but not on or in the books themselves. Books could, of course, place the ad on the cover, or after the cover page but before the book begins. But if they need to make $2 in ad revenue per book, and only have 8 hours to do it it, I think that they are going to be more aggressive. And I don't think that readers will accept that.

[stonetools]

Originally Posted by DiapDealer

Of course we could out-quote each other... that was the point. Quotes, don't a consensus make.


Exactly. That it's been a good deal for them. But it may or may not turn back into a pumpkin, once they've used up the best of the special offers.

And I repeat... besides Visa, Buick and Oil of Olay... who's fronting cash to get their ads placed on the Kindle? If the returns were substantial, wouldn't companies be scrambling to get their logo on a Kindle screen-saver?

I'm afraid that what you have done is to document that there has been grumbling by some customers that in the future everything may not be unicorns and rainbows for KSO owners ( but NO REMORSE for buying KSOS.
Against that, there is the data that :

1. Amazon is doubling down on the KSO model and finding partners at the local level.

2. Amazon has found some major partners at the national level ( doesn't get any bigger than Visa, GM and P&G) who are still all in on the deal.

3. The KSOs are the best selling Kindle models.

All that spells success to me, if not perfection. I see no evidence the model is played out

[DiapDealer]

Amazon has found some major partners at the national level ( doesn't get any bigger than Visa, GM and P&G)

You're still not answering my question. Those three have been on board since inception. Who have they added since then?

I've never questioned the KSO owner's overall satisfaction with their decision to purchase. They seem to be perfectly happy with their purchase—and I'm perfectly happy for them. I question Amazon's ability to sustain the model long term with only those three paying advertisers. And I also question your idea that the early success of the KSO model somehow suggests that readers might be amenable to in book advertising campaigns.

[stonetools]

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

The KSO is very different from an ad-supported book, for a couple of reasons.

The first reason is that you will look at ads on the KSO over the lifetime of the device (1-2 years, presumably). This gives Amazon a long time to make up the $25 discount you received. With a book, [assuming a 20% discount on a $10 book] by contrast, the publisher has approximately 8 hours to make back the $2 discount...because after that, you're done with the book.

The second important difference is that Amazon is able to present ads on the KSO without interfering with the reading experience at all. Using a bookstore analogy, it's like having ads on the shelves of the bookstore, but not on or in the books themselves. Books could, of course, place the ad on the cover, or after the cover page but before the book begins. But if they need to make $2 in ad revenue per book, and only have 8 hours to do it it, I think that they are going to be more aggressive. And I don't think that readers will accept that.

If what you are saying is true, advertisers would never place ads in magazines (maybe 2 hours reading experience) or in 30 minute TV shows. However, they do.

I'm not saying that an ad implementation model would be simple. If it was, we would see it already. I'm saying its POSSIBLE. It may be that my KESO idea may not work. There are other ideas out there-

*a Kindle Special Offers Reading App?
* Reading books for free online via an ad-supported KCR?

Of course, its easy to point out reasons why it wouldn't work.
But then when the KSO came out, there were comments like this:

patterntangle says:

Tue Apr 12 05:59:24 PDT 2011

I reckon I'd want more than $25 off the price.

I wonder how long before you can hack it so it doesn't show ads.
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RangeR9rrq says:

Tue Apr 12 06:55:17 PDT 2011

Brilliant, Amazon!

They've produced the perfect gift for people you hate - the SPAMPAD! What could be more annoying that great literatue interrupted by Viagra pop-ups?
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RangeR9rrq says:

[stonetools]

Originally Posted by DiapDealer

You're still not answering my question. Those three have been on board since inception. Who have they added since then?

I've never questioned the KSO owner's overall satisfaction with their decision to purchase. They seem to be perfectly happy with their purchase—and I'm perfectly happy for them. I question Amazon's ability to sustain the model long term with only those three paying advertisers. And I also question your idea that the early success of the KSO model somehow suggests that readers might be amenable to in book advertising campaigns.

Amazon apparently thinks the partners it has are sufficient. They think so much of their model that they have extended it to local deals, with local businesses as partners. You may think that the Amazon management is going down the wrong track by extending the model, but its clear that they think the model is successful, and will continue to be.

Again, we won't know for sure how amenable readers are to some form of an ad-supported ebook model till something is tried. From the comments here, its clear that some people will absolutely resist it. Others may welcome it, if implemented in the right way. Regardless of what we think, I believe it will be tried, and we will find out then what the majority will accept.

[DiapDealer]

From the comments here, its clear that some people will absolutely resist it. Others may welcome it, if implemented in the right way. Regardless of what we think, I believe it will be tried, and we will find out then what the majority will accept.

We're in agreement then.

...except for the part about it having anything to do with majorities or acceptance. It will be more like resignation.

[gweeks]

Originally Posted by DiapDealer

And I also question your idea that the early success of the KSO model somehow suggests that readers might be amenable to in book advertising campaigns.

Anyone remember the Ace books from the 60's with the bound in full color cigarette advertisements? When did Ace give up on this anyway? I know I used to tear them out and throw them away.

Greg Weeks

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by OneandonlyDoc

If you ask me, magazines are disposable. Books are not.

It really depends on the magazine... and the book. Today I have magazines that I've collected since I was a teen... over 30 years of magazines that I still go back and reference for one thing or another. Whereas, in those 30 years, I've disposed of quite a few books.

I'm not going to try to predict the display technologies of the future. I will say that the most popular displays will be those that can handle B/W and color.

And there's no reason ads can't find their way into ebook delivery. They get into every other type of medium, and after an initial "I hate ads!" response from consumers, they duly get used to them, no matter how invasive they are. Advertisers have our number.

As for cloud-based services: There will always be someone who will offer an app that will pull your content off the cloud and allow you to store it yourself. The only thing preventing everyone from using that app will be laziness.

[taustin]

Originally Posted by stonetools

Its been proven that consumers don't mind targeted ads-for example, the Kindle Special Offers. Anybody who even glances at TV will see that the ad supported TV model is very much alive. Also, too, most people who have TVs don't have DVRs

The television industry has been dying for several decades, for reasons noted. And their advertising is shifting (as it is in movies) from commercials to paid product placement ads in the content. When you see a character drinking a Coke, using a iPad, or driving a hot new car model, bet your rent the maker paid for you to see it.

Which is to say, you can't skip it.

Originally Posted by stonetools

Again, depends on the ads.

It certainly doesn't help any that most ads seem to be deliberately made to be offensive and annoying, but that's not a problem with the business model.

Originally Posted by stonetools

Lots of potential Stephen Kings upload stuff to the Internet every day. Guess what, no new Stephen Kings yet. People won't read crap, even if its ad-free-even if its free.

In point of fact, the list of independant authors who have sold over a million books with no traditional publishers is growing. You are behind the times.

Originally Posted by stonetools

Technology didn't stop in 2007, mate. Things have moved on. It doesn't have to get as good as downloading a copy to your own device. Netflix and the various music streaming services show that consumers will settle for less than that, if the price is right.

Music isn't books, and music buyers aren't book buyers. Some of the differences have already been noted here.

Originally Posted by stonetools

People who buy books also buy and read other content. They buy magazines, children's books, illustrated books, etc, etc. The shift to tablets is meant to serve those consumers

And they, too, aren't going to spend more for an inferior experience. They, too, aren't going to spend more to have a "multi-media experience" blaring in their ear. And that's just the ads. (And make no mistake, once there's a significant market for tablets instead of ebook readers, and those tablets are capable of video and sound, there will be annoying, deliberately offensive TV ads in the middle of your magazine, book, or whatever, that you can't turn off or skip.

Originally Posted by stonetools

A medium where SOME people won't tolerate advertising . FTFY.

The question is, how many. Will there be enough to support the market (and the significantly increased production costs for multi-media)? What is being desribed here is, basically, turning your smart phone in to a television, only more expensive, but with inferior quality.

I have doubt. I know I won't be bothering to spend my money on any of that.