Will e-book readers eventually go back to paper books?

[sabredog]

I look at book sales now with only marginal interest. Paperbacks and (gasp) hard covers all look too heavy and bulky now.

On the other hand, my 18 year old daughter only wants to read dead tree books and book sales/book exchanges are a constant source of enjoyment for her. Now that is simply infectious!

[KarenH]

Originally Posted by Tony1988

I can understand the other reasons but expense?? Ebooks are not really cheaper (some are more) and buying a new ereader every couple years at $100+ a pop is going to ruin any savings you MAY get buying some ebooks.

Ebooks are a lot cheaper for me, simply because they give me access to library books. I live about a 130 mile round-trip drive from the nearest branch of the library system that I have access to, so even if I kept books for the maximum check-out period and drove that every three weeks or so, it would still cost me something in the neighborhood of $20/month just for the gas to check paper books out from the library. With ebooks I just put the books I want on hold and check them out when they become available, no cost involved. I do buy books occasionally, for a variety of reasons, but the majority of my books come from the library. I would come out way ahead even if I had to spend $100 for a new reader every year.

Even without the savings though, I would still prefer reading ebooks to paper books - it's just an easier, more comfortable experience for me.

[SensualPoet]

Ebooks will effectively replace paper books in a relatively short period of time. Publishers are reporting US revenues for ebooks will reach 20% in 2011. Revenues are also driving distribution patterns: argue about the details as you see fit, but Borders collapsed primarily because paper sales are harder to engage in profitably. Blockbuster is an example of the same consumer choice displacement.

Paperbooks will continue in some niche markets -- coffee table gift books and collector editions, for example. Most other books, expanding from the huge successes in ebook fiction, will shift to electronic delivery as the ereader platforms evolve (Nook Color showing the first hints).

Sony proved eink ereaders could be marketed en masse; Amazon demonstrated a profitable industry could be built; readers embraced eink because it is convenient and cost effective. When Kobo entered the market at $150, and Kindle and Nook quickly aligned, there was an explosion of ereader sales and the ebook "value chain" was born. Even with all the shenanigans around publisher pricing, ereader consumers are paying significantly less for their books by title in aggregate, which means the $100 to $150 device itself really does pay for itself.

Ereaders are now well enough established to prove they are not a fad or being bought as a short-term toy. No doubt some have been shoved away at the back of the drawer, and some just have not met expectations of the individual book reader ... but readers who experience eink and can obtain the content suitable for their tastes in the main won't switch back.

An important fact about consumers: value does not equal price. Sure, everyone wants a deal but issues like convenience and usage experience matter quite a lot. Ebook portability outweighs the importance of resale value, displaying books to visitors in the home, the tangibleness of having the thing itself in the hand.

[kennyc]

Originally Posted by KarenH

Ebooks are a lot cheaper for me, simply because they give me access to library books. I live about a 130 mile round-trip drive from the nearest branch of the library system that I have access to, so even if I kept books for the maximum check-out period and drove that every three weeks or so, it would still cost me something in the neighborhood of $20/month just for the gas to check paper books out from the library. With ebooks I just put the books I want on hold and check them out when they become available, no cost involved. I do buy books occasionally, for a variety of reasons, but the majority of my books come from the library. I would come out way ahead even if I had to spend $100 for a new reader every year.

Even without the savings though, I would still prefer reading ebooks to paper books - it's just an easier, more comfortable experience for me.

[Tony1988]

Originally Posted by KarenH

Ebooks are a lot cheaper for me, simply because they give me access to library books. I live about a 130 mile round-trip drive from the nearest branch of the library system that I have access to, so even if I kept books for the maximum check-out period and drove that every three weeks or so, it would still cost me something in the neighborhood of $20/month just for the gas to check paper books out from the library. With ebooks I just put the books I want on hold and check them out when they become available, no cost involved. I do buy books occasionally, for a variety of reasons, but the majority of my books come from the library. I would come out way ahead even if I had to spend $100 for a new reader every year.

Even without the savings though, I would still prefer reading ebooks to paper books - it's just an easier, more comfortable experience for me.

I can understand that its just easier for you since there is no library near you. But most people do have a library. Plus library lending of ebooks will get more difficult especially since publishers are making it harder for librarys to keep the ebooks.

Originally Posted by SensualPoet

Ebooks will effectively replace paper books in a relatively short period of time.

Paperbooks are not going anywhere anytime soon. There are just too many people out there that dont want to spend the money or time on ereaders. They would rather buy used paperbacks which in the long run will be cheaper than ebooks. I know many people like this. Especially middle aged woman.

[kennyc]

So you know LOTS of middle aged women eh?

[Phogg]

Originally Posted by rxmom03

I can't imagine it being a short-term craze just because of the conveniences ereaders offer. For myself, I have a double whammy. I have almost reached the magical age of 50 and need reading glasses and really good light to read a book. Also I have type II diabetes (not controlled as well as it should be at the moment) and my vision goes blurry at times because of that.
For me, it is so much easier to read from either my NC or my Nook Touch--I will never give up on ereading!

Mary

+1.
50 next June.
The house won't hold another bookcase either.

[SensualPoet]

Originally Posted by Tony1988

Paperbooks are not going anywhere anytime soon. There are just too many people out there that dont want to spend the money or time on ereaders. They would rather buy used paperbacks which in the long run will be cheaper than ebooks. I know many people like this. Especially middle aged woman.

The facts on the ground simply don't support your views. Paperbacks are selling in substantially lower numbers -- unit sales and revenue -- in 2011 vs 2010 (the trend began in 2010) in the US market where ereaders are most heavily "penetrated". People haven't stopped buying books: they've started to replace buying paper with ebooks.

Second, romance fiction is the single biggest beneficiary of ereaders and ebook buying trends. The ereader market -- unlike tablets -- is not dominated by 18-34 males. Women represent almost 60% of the market according to the most recent research and the overall age skew is 45+ for males and females.

Anecdotally, last month Sourcebooks held a $1.99 sale to celebrate the 109th birthday of Georgette Heyer whose fame rests squarely on several dozen romance novels. It caused something of a feeding frenzy in the Deals and Freebies section here at Mobileread.

[Pomtroll]

I think I'll be sticking with my e-reader. I do read a pbook when I have to for my book club & there is no digital version, but other than that I really like reading on an e-reader. I can always change the font when my eyes are getting tired & my nightstand is now clear of piles of books....Much cleaner bedroom now. .

[taustin]

We are still at the "early adopter" phase of ereaders. As time goes by, the market with shake itself out, without DRM, without rentals rather than purchases, and without proprietary formats, and without idiotic pricing. And as that happens, the advantages of ebooks will become very clear to most people: modestly lower prices, ability to customize the display to the users' needs, the ability to carry, literally, thousands of books around in your pocket, and so on.

No, it's not a fad. Paper books will never go away, but they'll never return to their former dominance of the market.

[taustin]

Originally Posted by Tony1988

I can understand that its just easier for you since there is no library near you. But most people do have a library.

And very few of them even know where it is, much less make use of it. Libraries have struggled for survival for decades because so few people care. They matter a lot to people who do use them, but most people value the time it takes to return a book when they're done with it more than they do the cost of a paperback (or ebook).

[FizzyWater]

The only thing that would make me consider going back to paper books would be if ebooks went to the cloud-access only and I couldn't download my books.

[Quexos]

I thought they said they sell more e-books than paper books. How is 20% a bigger figure than the remaining 80%

Originally Posted by SensualPoet

Ebooks will effectively replace paper books in a relatively short period of time. Publishers are reporting US revenues for ebooks will reach 20% in 2011. Revenues are also driving distribution patterns: argue about the details as you see fit, but Borders collapsed primarily because paper sales are harder to engage in profitably. Blockbuster is an example of the same consumer choice displacement.

[Tony1988]

Originally Posted by SensualPoet

The facts on the ground simply don't support your views. Paperbacks are selling in substantially lower numbers -- unit sales and revenue -- in 2011 vs 2010 (the trend began in 2010) in the US market where ereaders are most heavily "penetrated". People haven't stopped buying books: they've started to replace buying paper with ebooks.

Yeah. The trend did begin just last year. BUT there are also more people reading now because of ereaders. So they are selling more books total.

I still dont think paperbooks are going away. There are just too many people who refuse to read books on an electronic device.

[Hellmark]

I think this is something that isn't just a fad, so no putting the cat back in the bag on this one. People are realizing the convenience of ebooks. Will they always use dedicated readers? Probably not, but unless something major happens (like publishers screwing over the ebook market, or an apocalypse), people aren't going to just go back to paper once they've made the switch.

Last night at dinner, a relative was talking about how they were reading ebooks on their phone, and they weren't a big reader to begin with. They loved how they could have something to read with them at all times, without having to carry anything extra.