Global warming or not?

[kennyc]

Originally Posted by Gwen Morse

These answers are provided my my husband, the geophysicist. His specialty is glaciation and sea-level change. If there are any weird gaps, please forgive me, I'm trying to form neat paragraphs of what he typed in IM from work.

"The longer term ice ages are caused by the Milankovich cycle which is caused by tiny perturbations of the Earth's orbit by Jupiter."

"Things were warm in the northern hemisphere around 1000 AD but not in the southern hemisphere."

"The current cycle is different because the pattern of temperature rise is confined to the lower atmosphere, which is a characteristic of greenhouse-driven temperature increase. The greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere are expected to produce at least 4 degrees Fahrenheit increase on top of any natural warming in the next 50 years. That is as warm as any of the previous interglacials got. If we keep producing greenhouse gases we'll get warmer than any previous period we know about that mammals have lived in. That could be very bad for agriculture. Also currently global average temperature is increasing in both hemispheres, not just the Northern like in 1000 AD."

Gwen thank you and your husband for that!

[GeoffC]

seems logical to me...

[Gwen Morse]

Originally Posted by kennyc

Gwen thank you and your husband for that!

He's happy to contribute from afar, and Ralph Sir Edward had valid questions .

[SteveEisenberg]

I didn't answer the poll because I don't like fitting my political views into a multiple choice format.

While it would be nice if we voluntarily stopped using fossil fuels prior to the point where everything economically recoverable is gone, this is unrealistic. You can't expect people in India and China and Africa to forgo what we in my country (the US) have.

Probably, more dikes will have to be built. Probably, people in beachfront and other low-lying locations will have to move. I expect it to mostly be bad, but there are places now too cold for agriculture that will likely bloom. And who wins a debate between MSNBC and FoxNews will make no difference.

[Greg Anos]

Originally Posted by Gwen Morse

These answers are provided my my husband, the geophysicist. His specialty is glaciation and sea-level change. If there are any weird gaps, please forgive me, I'm trying to form neat paragraphs of what he typed in IM from work.

"The longer term ice ages are caused by the Milankovich cycle which is caused by tiny perturbations of the Earth's orbit by Jupiter."

"Things were warm in the northern hemisphere around 1000 AD but not in the southern hemisphere."

"The current cycle is different because the pattern of temperature rise is confined to the lower atmosphere, which is a characteristic of greenhouse-driven temperature increase. The greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere are expected to produce at least 4 degrees Fahrenheit increase on top of any natural warming in the next 50 years. That is as warm as any of the previous interglacials got. If we keep producing greenhouse gases we'll get warmer than any previous period we know about that mammals have lived in. That could be very bad for agriculture. Also currently global average temperature is increasing in both hemispheres, not just the Northern like in 1000 AD."

May this dumb redneck ask another question?

If the cycles mentioned above are causative, why have there been such large glaciation gaps in the geological record. (there was around 20 millions years without major glaciation before the current glaciation cycle, and around 130 million year during the Cretaceous.)

[kennyc]

Ya thing Global warming causes contention, let's throw global warming and evolution in together (as if they weren't already ):

Global Warming May Reroute Evolution, Milkweed Research Finds

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0216171001.htm

There is rational debate on the issue, and then there are the lunatics. Depletion of oil and other resources? Not a problem, if we start to run out God will just stop by and fill up the tank again. Carbon dioxide emissions and global warming? Not to worry God will fix it for us. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0..._n_824312.html

[kennyc]

And these are the people we elect!!!!!!!

[WT Sharpe]

Originally Posted by Hamlet53

There is rational debate on the issue, and then there are the lunatics. Depletion of oil and other resources? Not a problem, if we start to run out God will just stop by and fill up the tank again. Carbon dioxide emissions and global warming? Not to worry God will fix it for us. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0..._n_824312.html

Originally Posted by kennyc

And these are the people we elect!!!!!!!

When I read that article, the phrase, "The lunatics are running the asylum" came to mind. That's nothing less than bad policy mixed with bad theology. Does he really feel his God will allow people to run roughshod over God's creation without consequence?

[kennyc]

U.S. Experiences Second Warmest Summer On Record: Texas Has Warmest Summer On Record of Any State

ScienceDaily (Sep. 10, 2011) — The blistering heat experienced by the United States during August, as well as the June through August months, marks the second warmest summer on record, according to scientists at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, N.C. The persistent heat, combined with below-average precipitation across the southern U.S. during August and the three summer months, continued a record-breaking drought across the region.

The average U.S. temperature in August was 75.7 degrees F, which is 3.0 degrees above the long-term (1901-2000) average, while the summertime temperature was 74.5 degrees F, which is 2.4 degrees above average. The warmest August on record for the contiguous United States was 75.8 degrees F in 1983, while its warmest summer on record at 74.6 degrees F occurred in 1936. Precipitation across the nation during August averaged 2.31 inches, 0.29 inches below the long-term average. The nationwide summer precipitation was 1.0 inch below average.

lots more here:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0910134446.htm

[The Terminator]

Originally Posted by Vector

Hitherto, I thought I was sympathetic to science and hostile to religion. Thanks to Nate for rousing me from my dogmatic slumbers and curing my self-deception.

Pious man that I am, I believe that global warming is real, it’s caused by man, and the resulting catastrophe is well under way. I have other, equally bizarre, religious convictions. For example:

I believe the Holocaust really happened.

I believe smoking cigarettes is bad for you.

I believe astronauts landed on the moon.

I believe the earth is round.

I believe the world is more than 6000 years old, evolution happened, fossils are real and not the malicious products of a Liar-God, and what astronomers have to say about red shift and the age of various observed objects in the universe makes sense.

Doubtless in this vast web of ours there is a half-vast web site devoted to debunking each of these dogmas. I hope Nate will be so kind as to provide the links.

I used to think the real scientists were the people who worked hard for years getting training and earning degrees, made scientific research their life’s work, and published their results in peer-reviewed journals. What an ass I was! The real scientists are people like Rush Limbaugh.

Can I give negative Karma?

[kennyc]

Originally Posted by The Terminator

Can I give negative Karma?

Unfortunately not on this forum (not true at some others that I belong to )

[Greg Anos]

Originally Posted by kennyc

U.S. Experiences Second Warmest Summer On Record: Texas Has Warmest Summer On Record of Any State

ScienceDaily (Sep. 10, 2011) — The blistering heat experienced by the United States during August, as well as the June through August months, marks the second warmest summer on record, according to scientists at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, N.C. The persistent heat, combined with below-average precipitation across the southern U.S. during August and the three summer months, continued a record-breaking drought across the region.

The average U.S. temperature in August was 75.7 degrees F, which is 3.0 degrees above the long-term (1901-2000) average, while the summertime temperature was 74.5 degrees F, which is 2.4 degrees above average. The warmest August on record for the contiguous United States was 75.8 degrees F in 1983, while its warmest summer on record at 74.6 degrees F occurred in 1936. Precipitation across the nation during August averaged 2.31 inches, 0.29 inches below the long-term average. The nationwide summer precipitation was 1.0 inch below average.

lots more here:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0910134446.htm

And Europe is having a particularly cold and wet summer....

[kennyc]

Observations of Climate Change from Indigenous Alaskans

ScienceDaily (Sep. 13, 2011) — Personal interviews with Alaska Natives in the Yukon River Basin provide unique insights on climate change and its impacts, helping develop adaptation strategies for these local communities.

The USGS coordinated interviews with Yup'ik hunters and elders in the villages of St. Mary's and Pitka's Point, Alaska, to document their observations of climate change. They expressed concerns ranging from safety, such as unpredictable weather patterns and dangerous ice conditions, to changes in plants and animals as well as decreased availability of firewood.

"Many climate change studies are conducted on a large scale, and there is a great deal of uncertainty regarding how climate change will impact specific regions," said USGS social scientist Nicole Herman-Mercer. "This study helps address that uncertainty and really understand climate change as a socioeconomic issue by talking directly to those with traditional and personal environmental knowledge."

...

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0913152927.htm

[kennyc]

More Americans believe world is warming

By Timothy Gardner

WASHINGTON | Fri Sep 16, 2011 1:08pm IST

(Reuters) - More Americans than last year believe the world is warming and the change is likely influenced by the Republican presidential debates, a Reuters/Ipsos poll said on Thursday.

The percentage of Americans who believe the Earth has been warming rose to 83 percent from 75 percent last year in the poll conducted Sept 8-12.

U.S. Republican presidential candidates, aside from Jon Huntsman, have mostly blasted the idea that emissions from burning fossil fuels and other human actions are warming the planet.

The current front-runner, Texas Governor Rick Perry, has accused scientists of manipulating climate data while Michele Bachmann has said climate change is a hoax.

More:
http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/0...59381520110916