An editorial on iPad sales and competition

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by kartu

No. It's an IHS forecast and you have no idea what it is based on.

You're right — I didn't read that quite carefully enough. I thought that they had also given figures for the recent past, while all their figures are forecasts.

Others have given figures based on announced shipments that almost match their 74% estimate, and I wrongly assumed that this figure was from the same sources.

Originally Posted by kartu

And no, you can't replace it with wild assumptions based on number of times someone accessed google market place during 2 weeks of August 2011.

Estimating numbers from web access information seems reasonable to me. Unless you're suggesting that Android Tablet owners access that site significantly less than owners of other Android devices?

Of course, if makers were to announce consumer sales numbers we wouldn't need to estimate numbers another way.

Originally Posted by kartu

That's just an urban legend, which is, besides, irrelevant.

Shipping times for iPads finally went to "Within 24 hours" (i.e. stock always on hand) at the Apple on-line store only in early August this year. Until August Apple's iPad sales have been constrained by the supply. That's not an urban legend. It is not irrelevant, as Apple count as sales shipments to retailers. If there was reason to think that there could be a large stock of iPads still unsold in retailer's warehouses, Apple's stated sales numbers would not reflect numbers actually sold to consumers.

[molman]

Originally Posted by Sil_liS

They were always stocked in the Netherlands as far as I've seen.

Don't know about the US, but they also sell via other channels than just Apple directly here in Australia, so I do agree with the others that it does seem to be an unchecked assumption to make that sold into channel equals sold to customer for Apple (almost repeated as fact). Anyway 15, 20, 25%.. doesn't really matter as much as the trend in the scheme of things.

[Graham]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

6 million out of 31 million is just under 20% of the installed base, not 24%

My brain and Google Fu are going. Where do you get the 31 million figure from?

Granted it's somewhere upward of the 25 million quoted to end of June.

Graham

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by Graham

My brain and Google Fu are going. Where do you get the 31 million figure from?

Granted it's somewhere upward of the 25 million quoted to end of June.

Graham

Sorry, I didn't give the calculation. 31 million = 6 million + 25 million, the total number of tablets (Android and iPad) sold, tablets being the thing we're considering.

On your figures, iPad has 25/31 = 80.6% of the installed base, Android tablets have 6/31 = 19.4% of the installed base (neglecting any other kind of tablet).

[molman]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

Shipping times for iPads finally went to "Within 24 hours" (i.e. stock always on hand) at the Apple on-line store only in early August this year. Until August Apple's iPad sales have been constrained by the supply. That's not an urban legend. It is not irrelevant, as Apple count as sales shipments to retailers. If there was reason to think that there could be a large stock of iPads still unsold in retailer's warehouses, Apple's stated sales numbers would not reflect numbers actually sold to consumers.

Whilst I do agree that the number is likely close, there are also reasons that you may wish your product out in the physical channels rather than held in warehouses to meet online ordering sales.

[kartu]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

Estimating numbers from web access information seems reasonable to me. Unless you're suggesting that Android Tablet owners access that site significantly less than owners of other Android devices?

Yes, but only as a last resort. 2 weeks in August is a very long shot, plus numbers you're trying to figure are smaller than precision.

Besides, with these numbers you're trying to take on agency, who's making money on such predictions.

Shipping times for iPads finally went to "Within 24 hours" (i.e. stock always on hand) at the Apple on-line store only in early August this year

This sounds like more of a problem at that particular store, not being able to serve all the customers.
Can you name any major online shop, that sold their products but didn't have them in stock?

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by molman

Whilst I do agree that the number is likely close, there are also reasons that you may wish your product out in the physical channels rather than held in warehouses to meet online ordering sales.

Oh yes, I agree. But not in huge numbers. Since Tim Cook's arrival*, Apple's stock in the retail chain has been very well managed and is usually about two week to four week's supply, if I remember correctly.




*No, not just since his elevation to CEO!

[kjk]

Originally Posted by Graham

My brain and Google Fu are going. Where do you get the 31 million figure from?

Granted it's somewhere upward of the 25 million quoted to end of June.

Graham

28.7 million by Apple's Q3, which ended in June 2011.

They were averaging around 3 million/month last quarter.

Originally Posted by pdurrant

Apple's stock in the retail chain has been very well managed and is usually about two week to four week's supply, if I remember correctly.

You do remember correctly. They have been caught actually on the other end-not enough inventory on both the iPhone 4 and the iPad and iPad 2. Production has been the issue, not excess inventory.

Apple's 10Ks and post earnings conference calls are pretty candid about sales numbers and inventory goals (and of course gross margins), at least for products that are doing well for them.

[Graham]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

Sorry, I didn't give the calculation. 31 million = 6 million + 25 million, the total number of tablets (Android and iPad) sold, tablets being the thing we're considering.

Thanks, yes, I'd got my calculation wrong and forgot to add the two together (noted we should also be including non-iPad or Android tablets).

In my defence, my new HP Touchpad has arrived this morning and I'm a bit distracted.

Graham

[molman]

Originally Posted by Graham

In my defence, my new HP Touchpad has arrived this morning and I'm a bit distracted.

Miffed I couldn't pick one up myself - sold out in 1hr locally. Any numbers on how many of those got dropped on the market? should make a nice blip.

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by molman

Miffed I couldn't pick one up myself - sold out in 1hr locally. Any numbers on how many of those got dropped on the market? should make a nice blip.

Best Buy reportedly had 270,000 in stock, and sold them all. I haven't seen any figures on how many were actually manufactured, but I'd guess somewhere from 500,000 to 1,000,000.

So perhaps about as many as the iPads Apple sells every week.

[molman]

Originally Posted by pdurrant

Best Buy reportedly had 270,000 in stock, and sold them all. I haven't seen any figures on how many were actually manufactured, but I'd guess somewhere from 500,000 to 1,000,000.

So perhaps about as many as the iPads Apple sells every week.

Yeah just heard an "analysis" say as much, though they are making a few more for Q4 so I wonder if that might not be revised up somewhat.

Any numbers out there for how many Windows Tablets are selling (both iPad-esk and the convertible types)? I actually thought OneNote and a convertible Win tablet with stylus was a pretty nice combo for the .edu crowd.