An editorial on iPad sales and competition

[Skip Wyona]

What do I want in a better e-reader? OK.
Firstly, I separate functions between an book e-reader and a tablet. I want a Kindle to be a better e-book reader for text based books only, not a tablet that performs multiple functions. I want a new Kindle to offer a better device than the B&N Nook Touch and a more reliable device than the iRiver Story HD with the support that Amazon is noted for. I would like to see the following: a 768 x 1024 resolution touch screen; support for epub and an improved e-ink design that does not flash to black in screen refresh. In other words a competitor to the newer e-book devices with Amazon's support and book publishing capability. I do not want an Amazon tablet. If I wanted a tablet, I would do what other consumers have done and buy an iPad. Amazon is welcome to enter the tablet market but it must first improve upon it's bread 'n butter business model based on the Kindle. Releasing 2 different devices seems to me to be the way to go. I do not want a hybrid Kindle that competes with tablets, just an improved cheap e-book reader.

[OtterBooks]

Originally Posted by stonetools

I just checked the Apple site. The only refurbished iPads in stock are the 64g ones, going for $499. Sorry OB.
An iPad 1 still does just about everything you would want it do, consumer wise. I'm pretty sure it will get the coming iOS 5 upgrade too.

Thanks for the info, ST. It looked like Apple had 16gb refurbs for $399 (maybe not in stock, though). At that price I would just spend the extra hundred and get an iPad2. I think the 16gb would be enough for me. I think. Gonna wait to see Amazon play its hand, though. This close to their alleged-possible-rumored announcement, I may as well wait and see. Especially if they have a lower cost tab.

I don't have brand loyalty here. I'm a *wee* bit of an Amazon fanboy, but part of me has also wanted to own an Apple mobile device to experience what all the hoopla is about.

[RockdaMan]

Originally Posted by kartu

these toys... isomething

Please, stop.

[RockdaMan]

I'm the OP, and I think that maybe the thread title should be changed. I suspect it's unnecessarily drawing the ire of non-Apple fans. Perhaps "An editorial on iPad sales and competition".

Or close it. Let someone other than me be the author if they want to discuss it further.


(edit: thanks!)

[molman]

@RockdaMan: I don't think it's that bad. Even if kartu for example could have articulated things better he did illuminate two points: the litigation that is having an effect on the competition and marketing with a not uncommon marketing (photoshop) blunder. They probably should have been fined for it as it is a bit of a misrepresentation, but considering how often it occurs in marketing generally it's nothing special.

[molman]

@Skip Wyona: I wont reply directly to your desires for Kindle 4 (we probably should keep any expansive Kindle 4 discussion to separate areas), but I think you will get a new eInk Kindle. How changed (improved?) hopefully you'll know soon.

You didn't answer why you think the Tablet market is saturated though? or have you reconsidered your position?

[Barty]

Originally Posted by kjk

Indeed, Amazon is in a great position to do well, because they won't be selling just another tablet, they will be selling the Amazon experience, and consumers by and large already love the Amazon experience.

I'm in a tiny minority here but I don't really care much about the "amazon experience." I bought the kindle b/c it was a good price with good features. I wouldn't have cared if it'd been tied to kobo or BN (not apple, since their drm isn't broken)

Originally Posted by RockdaMan

Everyone thought the Apple retail stores would be the final fatal hubristic cough of a dying company. Equal to the devices perhaps, they have turned out to be Jobs and Co. crowning achievements.

Apple is doing something right with their stores. When I go to the biggest mall near me, half the stores in there are shuttered and the rest semi deserted. It's pretty sad. The apple store otoh is jumping. I don't know if people are buying, but it's always packed, like there's a big sale (and we know apple doesn't do sales).

Originally Posted by Ankh

Would you be so kind to elaborate? What is the meaning of these numbers?

shipped != sold. But android is definitely taking a good chunk out of apple.

A couple of thoughts about tech pundits. 1) When the first iPad came out, a lot of them advised people not to buy the first generation (when they weren't dismissing it as a giant ipod). Now they're mystified that people aren't buying the first gen android tablets in droves. 2) they're way overexcitable, first, drooling over every newly announced tablet as the iPad killer, and then declaring it a disappointment or failure.

[kartu]

Originally Posted by RockdaMan

Please, stop.

Pardon?

[molman]

Originally Posted by Barty

Apple is doing something right with their stores.

A shop where the employees either have good product knowledge or can point you to someone who does (Genius Bar) seems to be unfortunately novel compared to the other places computers/consumer electronics are often sold these days.

Originally Posted by Barty

shipped != sold. But android is definitely taking a good chunk out of apple.

I think you might be mistaken. I don't believe from all that I've seen that Android is touching iOS market share in smartphones (RIM/Symbian etc. seemed to be the loosers), and in the Consumer Tablet market it’s so fledgling that the pie has barely been created yet.

Originally Posted by Barty

A couple of thoughts about tech pundits. 1) When the first iPad came out, a lot of them advised people not to buy the first generation (when they weren't dismissing it as a giant ipod). Now they're mystified that people aren't buying the first gen android tablets in droves. 2) they're way overexcitable, first, drooling over every newly announced tablet as the iPad killer, and then declaring it a disappointment or failure.

The level of discourse in tech journalism (or what passes for it) could be a lot higher. I was listening the ThisIsMyNext podcast just the other day (all the ex-Engadget guy’s & girls), and around the 30min mark Paul Miller in reference to Apple is commenting on them entering/creating new markets. In counterpoint he says IBM found a market they could be really great in, and have been really great in it for 50 years, they are not changing themself, reinventing themselves or creating new markets all the time That tabulating equipment market is just dandy whilst Nokia is enjoying the wood pulp market. Joshua Topolsky, Nilay Patel didn't say didly squat about this. I've cringed at Josh's technical shortfalls in the past too. These are some of the guy's setting the tone around this stuff. Really is mediocre at times.

[kartu]

Originally Posted by molman

I think you might be mistaken. I don't believe from all that I've seen that Android is touching iOS market share in smartphones (RIM/Symbian etc. seemed to be the loosers), and in the Consumer Tablet market it’s so fledgling that the pie has barely been created yet.

Smartphones:
Apple has 18.5% of smartphone market (worldwide) as of Q2 2011 (26% in US). Samsung is quite close with 17.5%. Source.

62% of the smartphones shipped in Q2 2011 are Android based (twice as much as last year).

Tablets:
Apple went from 94% last year to 74% this year.
Tablet market is expected to quadruple during next 3-4 years. Forecast for Apple in 2015 is 44% of the market. Source.

[murraypaul]

Originally Posted by kartu

Smartphones:
Apple has 18.5% of smartphone market (worldwide) as of Q2 2011 (26% in US). Samsung is quite close with 17.5%. Source.

I think the point is that Apple's share is up from 13.5% in 2010. So the Android growth is not coming at Apple's expense, but from others, largely Nokia Symbian devices. From that article:

Apple surpassed Nokia by revenue and profit for the first time in Q2 2011. Apple's iPhone sales also overtook Nokia's Symbian smartphone volume shipments by 20.3 million and 16.7 million respectively, although Nokia had already announced plans to phase Symbian out.
Between Q2 2010 and Q2 2011 Nokia's Symbian smartphone sales dropped significantly from 38.1 percent to 15.2 percent, while Samsung smartphone sales increased significantly from 5.0 percent to 17.5 percent.

[Graham]

Originally Posted by murraypaul

I think the point is that Apple's share is up from 13.5% in 2010. So the Android growth is not coming at Apple's expense, but from others, largely Nokia Symbian devices. From that article:

This point is made a lot on the tech sites, but do we really all believe that if Android did not exist Nokia and RIM wouldn't have shed market share to Apple instead?

In other words, if Android hadn't taken 62% of the market we would have expected Apple to have grown far more than it did. Probably not to the same level that Android did as those devices reach from the high end right down to the cheapest, but surely to higher than 18.5% of the global market.

Graham

[molman]

Originally Posted by murraypaul

I think the point is that Apple's share is up from 13.5% in 2010. So the Android growth is not coming at Apple's expense, but from others, largely Nokia Symbian devices. From that article:

Exactly. Though karta wasn't really presenting a position just some facts and sources. I like the Arstechnica graphic better;



The pie is also getting bigger - smartphone sales up 76%, overall mobile phones sales up 11% (Source)

Originally Posted by kartu

Tablets:
Apple went from 94% last year to 74% this year.
Tablet market is expected to quadruple during next 3-4 years. Forecast for Apple in 2015 is 44% of the market. Source.

The only direction you can go is down when you are nearly the only one in the market (in reference to Apples forcasted reduced market share). I'm curious what gets included in this Tablet market number (exact product sku's). It's interesting that if Apple sold 14.8 million iPads in 2010 and had 94% share, meaning that less than a million of anything else classed as a Tablet (by this measure) was sold. Wonder if that includes tablet PC's etc?

[molman]

Originally Posted by Graham

This point is made a lot on the tech sites, but do we really all believe that if Android did not exist Nokia and RIM wouldn't have shed market share to Apple instead?

In other words, if Android hadn't taken 62% of the market we would have expected Apple to have grown far more than it did. Probably not to the same level that Android did as those devices reach from the high end right down to the cheapest, but surely to higher than 18.5% of the global market.

Graham

What-if's are hard. Maybe WebOS/Palm would have done better without Android in the market. Maybe Windows Phone 7 would have picked up more market share, and RIM lost a little less. Maybe Nokia might have made a go of MeeGo/Maemo or the next revision of Symbian.... what-if?

[Graham]

Originally Posted by kartu

Tablets:
Apple went from 94% last year to 74% this year.

Those figures showing Android tablet share at around 26% are based on tablets shipped rather than sold (vs sales figures for the iPad). I've not found the actual share of sales anywhere, just notes that, unlike Apple, key Android manufacturers don't release those figures.

Graham