An editorial on iPad sales and competition - Page 12

Graham · 08-19-2011, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ficbot

As others have said: just because *you* may not see a use for it, it doesn't mean others are not quite happy with theirs. Why does this have to be an either/or thing with one side 'winning' and everyone else submitting to their will?

I'm not in the least arguing this. If you read my posts you'll find that I'm saying that each person should use the device they find most appropriate.

In your post, though, you stated a couple of strong reasons why you couldn't use a netbook in the classroom (battery life and start up time) which no longer apply to modern netbooks. Consequently, it was of interest to me, given my argument that there will be a swing back to netbooks, whether this would be true in your case.

Graham

stonetools · 08-19-2011, 06:02 PM

I think that the remaining issue is not whether tablets are useful(although people still debate that). The issue is why aren't Andriod tablets catching on with consumers?
I believe that the answer comes down not to whether tablets have SD cards or USB ports or whatnot, but due to the ecosystem behind the IPad. Frankly, that's a much tougher nut for opponents to crack, which is probably why HP threw in the towel. There was never really any chance that HP could build the kind of ecosystem that the Touchpad would need to compete with the Ipad.
Although Android has made impressive strides, the Google Market clearly lags behind the Apple ecosystem. There is no real equivalent to Itunes, with its one stop shopping for all media, its great selection, and its seamless shopping experience. The App Store is still, well, THE App Store, with more apps and better apps than the Google Market, and above all complete security.
While Apple's ecosystem maintains such clear superiority, its going to be hard for Android tablets to gain traction. After all, you don't buy a tablet purely because its a nifty gadget: you buy it to enjoy content, use apps, and to play games. To flip the commercial, if you dont have an Ios device, you don't have the Ios ecosystem: and that's what matters to consumers.

Graham · 08-19-2011, 06:06 PM

I actually mostly agree with you here stonetools.

Since my position on all this is scattered across multiple posts and threads, and I was misunderstood above, forgive me for restating it.

I don't think there is a major market for large pure tablets (10" and up) with the exception of the iPad. The iPad has established itself as a consumer item, backed by a solid ecosystem and brilliant marketing, which attracts both long-term Apple fans and the casual buyer. These people are not in the market for 'a tablet'. They want an iPad. The only company that might compete here is Amazon.

By extension, the Android large tablet share will grow for the next few years, driven by the industry savvy and android phone owners dabbling in the tablet market, but it will tail off.

We'll therefore see a swing some way back towards netbooks once the initial fervour for large tablets dies down. Bear in mind that there will be improvements in netbook design as well. I can definitely see hybrid netbooks with detachable tablet screens becoming popular. Battery life of the latest machines is already better than the best tablets.

I do see a big market for 7" Android tablets, as they're capable little content consumption devices, cheaper and lighter.

The wild card, of course, is Microsoft and whether they pull something special off with Windows 8.

Graham

stonetools · 08-19-2011, 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Graham

I actually mostly agree with you here stonetools.

Since my position on all this is scattered across multiple posts and threads, and I was misunderstood above, forgive me for restating it.

I don't think there is a major market for large pure tablets (10" and up) with the exception of the iPad. The iPad has established itself as a consumer item, backed by a solid ecosystem and brilliant marketing, which attracts both long-term Apple fans and the casual buyer. These people are not in the market for 'a tablet'. They want an iPad. The only company that might compete here is Amazon.

By extension, the Android large tablet share will grow for the next few years, driven by the industry savvy and android phone owners dabbling in the tablet market, but it will tail off.

We'll therefore see a swing some way back towards netbooks once the initial fervour for large tablets dies down. Bear in mind that there will be improvements in netbook design as well. I can definitely see hybrid netbooks with detachable tablet screens becoming popular. Battery life of the latest machines is already better than the best tablets.

I do see a big market for 7" Android tablets, as they're capable little content consumption devices, cheaper and lighter.

The wild card, of course, is Microsoft and whether they pull something special off with Windows 8.

Graham

I think Amazon has the ecosystem, the brand name , and the customer service to give Apple a run for its money.
Color me skeptical that Windows 8 will run smoothly on a tablet. If Microsoft can achieve that AND build a decent ecosystem around xBox, Zune, and Office, they may have a good chance.

ilovejedd · 08-19-2011, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stonetools

I think Amazon has the ecosystem, the brand name, and the customer service to give Apple a run for its money.
Color me skeptical that Windows 8 will run smoothly on a tablet.

I actually have high hopes for Windows 8.

Although I do think (at least in the short term) Amazon has the greatest chance of challenging Apple's iPad dominance.

Ankh · 08-19-2011, 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Graham

We'll therefore see a swing some way back towards netbooks once the initial fervour for large tablets dies down.

I honestly don't see how that can happen. I like the "trasformer" part of the Eee, but just today (being completely oblivious to the developments in Apple galaxy) noticed that in my local FutureShop this little puppy:
http://www.futureshop.ca/en-CA/produ.../10156610.aspx

iPad + that keyboard is not a replacement for Air, but it comes pretty darn close, as far as I am concerned. The only thing that can save a wintel netbook is a sudden and very surprising deployment of power_efficient/super_potent Intel hardware.

carld · 08-19-2011, 07:40 PM

I like the iPad + keyboard case idea a lot. If Amazon doesn't blow me away with their up coming tablet I may just break down and buy an iPad2, despite Apple. The hardware itself is really sweet.

GlennD · 08-19-2011, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ankh

I honestly don't see how that can happen. I like the "trasformer" part of the Eee, but just today (being completely oblivious to the developments in Apple galaxy) noticed that in my local FutureShop this little puppy:
http://www.futureshop.ca/en-CA/produ.../10156610.aspx

iPad + that keyboard is not a replacement for Air, but it comes pretty darn close, as far as I am concerned. The only thing that can save a wintel netbook is a sudden and very surprising deployment of power_efficient/super_potent Intel hardware.

I've got the bluetooth version of that keyboard. Most of my posting here is done on it. My wife has one as well, and uses it a lot for journaling and notetaking during meetings. It's one of the few areas I do get annoyed at Apple's interface - I'd like a button on the main screen to toggle bluetooth on/off. Makes me a little envious of the jailbreakers.

Still, it's a minor annoyance and the keyboard is worth having, IMO.

Graham · 08-20-2011, 03:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ankh

I honestly don't see how that can happen. I like the "trasformer" part of the Eee, but just today (being completely oblivious to the developments in Apple galaxy) noticed that in my local FutureShop this little puppy:
http://www.futureshop.ca/en-CA/produ.../10156610.aspx

iPad + that keyboard is not a replacement for Air, but it comes pretty darn close, as far as I am concerned. The only thing that can save a wintel netbook is a sudden and very surprising deployment of power_efficient/super_potent Intel hardware.

Note that I'm saying 'swing some way back to netbooks'. I'm certainly not suggesting that the market will completely turn its back on iPads.

Here's another way to look at it. Tablets are big news at the moment, and lots of people are buying their first one. Within both the iPad and Android tablet communities you'll have a proportion of customers who find that the tablet is perfect for their needs, and another set who find that it has limitations for what they need to do. You only need to scan the posts here on MobileRead to see that there are plenty of the latter.

When that latter set come to make their next buying decision they'll be looking at netbooks, and we'll see a resurgence of the format.

Windows 8 hybrid netbook/tablets could well take off.

Or I could be completely wrong. It's going to be fun looking back at these posts in 5 years time!

Graham

stonetools · 08-20-2011, 03:55 AM

Marco Ament has a lesson for those who would be Ipad competitors:

\

Quote:

HP definitely mismanaged Palm. The TouchPad’s software shouldn’t have shipped when it did. The hardware wasn’t very good. The marketing was insufficient. The retail channel was poorly managed.

But webOS, despite having some great ideas, never became competitive. Palm and webOS’ developers bear most of the responsibility for that, not just HP’s managers.

This is a high-stakes game. Apple is kicking everyone’s asses so much in the “tablet market” that it’s really not accurate to call it that. Competitors need to be great on day one to stand a chance.

webOS was always “getting better soon”. Maybe we should finally give up our unfounded hope, like HP probably has, that webOS ever could have been great, because it never was.

LINK

Although he specifically references webOS here, its a message for everyone. Now Amazon so far has a good record of putting out products that are good from day one. However, a tablet is a step up in complexity from an reader device or an ereader app. I'm hoping from competitiveness' sake that they do get it right.

joenunya · 08-20-2011, 05:43 AM

Interesting topic as I won't buy a tablet if it's an iPad. Pretty much for the same reasons as most who are of the same mind. I prefer to wait a bit longer for a far more mature hardware platform even the soon to be everywhere Tegra3 and it's spiffy new graphics subsystem.

Otherwise it's likely to be Lenovo's turn into my wallet. Or even Amazon but we'll see though I doubt Amazon will be running the newest Tegra hardware.

HappyMartin · 08-20-2011, 02:01 PM

I bought an iPad as a gift to myself after being very busy at work and as a reward for making a little bit of money in a tough economic climate. After 2 weeks I transferred the money I paid for it from my business account to my private account and made it a business purchase.

The reason is it is not as much fun as I expected it to be and my business has taken it over. It is a terrific business tool for my little business.

It has not replaced my laptop. It has replaced my 5 notebooks, hardcopy contacts list, equipment lists and at least 8 hardware and software manuals. it is also great for maps of locations I am working in and so on

It has been a massive help in organizing my life in lots of little ways. Right down to shopping lists. Sometimes, like now, I even browse on it.

ilovejedd · 08-20-2011, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HappyMartin

The reason is it is not as much fun as I expected it to be and my business has taken it over. It is a terrific business tool for my little business.

It has not replaced my laptop. It has replaced my 5 notebooks, hardcopy contacts list, equipment lists and at least 8 hardware and software manuals. it is also great for maps of locations I am working in and so on.

The iPad is standard issue to the supervisors/foremen of one of the private contractors working at LAX. It contains all the plans, blueprints, specifications, etc. No need to carry tons of paperwork for reference. Really useful. Sure, you could carry all the plans on a laptop, but those aren't as easy to use when you're out on the job site.

RockdaMan · 08-20-2011, 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joenunya

it's likely to be Lenovo's turn into my wallet.

Probably not. It seems like the hardware these tablet makers have to use to match or beat Apple on price is often a step below the hardware Apple is using.

Quote:

the K1 has more than just a new name — it’s been given a makeover with Honeycomb 3.1 and a slew of unique apps, including Netflix and Lenovo’s own Launch Zone Android 3.1 skin.

Quote:

even if it had hit the market a year ago, it wouldn’t have been good enough (at least in its current form) to go head-to-head with the original iPad. The K1′s hardware is chunky and cheap-feeling, its screen is washed out, and the software is unstable to the point of being unusable at times. It sounds harsh, but when you can pick up the iPad 2 or the Galaxy Tab 2 for just $499, the $50 you save by getting a K1 doesn’t seem close to worth it — unless, of course, you think there’s some value in buggy software.

http://thisismynext.com/2011/08/19/l...pad-k1-review/

RockdaMan · 08-20-2011, 05:10 PM

So the lesson is this: this is a new thing. And once you own one, you find uses for it that you couldn't have imagined before you owned it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HappyMartin

I bought an iPad as a gift to myself after being very busy at work and as a reward for making a little bit of money in a tough economic climate. After 2 weeks I transferred the money I paid for it from my business account to my private account and made it a business purchase.

The reason is it is not as much fun as I expected it to be and my business has taken it over. It is a terrific business tool for my little business.

It has not replaced my laptop. It has replaced my 5 notebooks, hardcopy contacts list, equipment lists and at least 8 hardware and software manuals. it is also great for maps of locations I am working in and so on

It has been a massive help in organizing my life in lots of little ways. Right down to shopping lists. Sometimes, like now, I even browse on it.

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08-19-2011, 06:02 PM	#167
stonetools Wizard Posts: 2,016 Karma: 2838487 Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Washington, DC Device: Ipad, IPhone	I think that the remaining issue is not whether tablets are useful(although people still debate that). The issue is why aren't Andriod tablets catching on with consumers? I believe that the answer comes down not to whether tablets have SD cards or USB ports or whatnot, but due to the ecosystem behind the IPad. Frankly, that's a much tougher nut for opponents to crack, which is probably why HP threw in the towel. There was never really any chance that HP could build the kind of ecosystem that the Touchpad would need to compete with the Ipad. Although Android has made impressive strides, the Google Market clearly lags behind the Apple ecosystem. There is no real equivalent to Itunes, with its one stop shopping for all media, its great selection, and its seamless shopping experience. The App Store is still, well, THE App Store, with more apps and better apps than the Google Market, and above all complete security. While Apple's ecosystem maintains such clear superiority, its going to be hard for Android tablets to gain traction. After all, you don't buy a tablet purely because its a nifty gadget: you buy it to enjoy content, use apps, and to play games. To flip the commercial, if you dont have an Ios device, you don't have the Ios ecosystem: and that's what matters to consumers.

08-19-2011, 06:06 PM	#168
Graham Wizard Posts: 2,742 Karma: 32912427 Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: North Yorkshire, UK Device: Kobo H20, Pixel 2, Samsung Chromebook Plus	I actually mostly agree with you here stonetools. Since my position on all this is scattered across multiple posts and threads, and I was misunderstood above, forgive me for restating it. I don't think there is a major market for large pure tablets (10" and up) with the exception of the iPad. The iPad has established itself as a consumer item, backed by a solid ecosystem and brilliant marketing, which attracts both long-term Apple fans and the casual buyer. These people are not in the market for 'a tablet'. They want an iPad. The only company that might compete here is Amazon. By extension, the Android large tablet share will grow for the next few years, driven by the industry savvy and android phone owners dabbling in the tablet market, but it will tail off. We'll therefore see a swing some way back towards netbooks once the initial fervour for large tablets dies down. Bear in mind that there will be improvements in netbook design as well. I can definitely see hybrid netbooks with detachable tablet screens becoming popular. Battery life of the latest machines is already better than the best tablets. I do see a big market for 7" Android tablets, as they're capable little content consumption devices, cheaper and lighter. The wild card, of course, is Microsoft and whether they pull something special off with Windows 8. Graham

08-19-2011, 07:40 PM	#172
carld Wizard Posts: 2,698 Karma: 4748723 Join Date: Dec 2007 Device: Kindle Paperwhite	I like the iPad + keyboard case idea a lot. If Amazon doesn't blow me away with their up coming tablet I may just break down and buy an iPad2, despite Apple. The hardware itself is really sweet.

08-20-2011, 05:43 AM	#176
joenunya Banned Posts: 120 Karma: 234858 Join Date: Jun 2011 Device: kindle4pc	Interesting topic as I won't buy a tablet if it's an iPad. Pretty much for the same reasons as most who are of the same mind. I prefer to wait a bit longer for a far more mature hardware platform even the soon to be everywhere Tegra3 and it's spiffy new graphics subsystem. Otherwise it's likely to be Lenovo's turn into my wallet. Or even Amazon but we'll see though I doubt Amazon will be running the newest Tegra hardware.

08-20-2011, 02:01 PM	#177
HappyMartin Martin Kristiansen Posts: 1,546 Karma: 8480958 Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Johannesburg Device: Kindle International Ipad 2	I bought an iPad as a gift to myself after being very busy at work and as a reward for making a little bit of money in a tough economic climate. After 2 weeks I transferred the money I paid for it from my business account to my private account and made it a business purchase. The reason is it is not as much fun as I expected it to be and my business has taken it over. It is a terrific business tool for my little business. It has not replaced my laptop. It has replaced my 5 notebooks, hardcopy contacts list, equipment lists and at least 8 hardware and software manuals. it is also great for maps of locations I am working in and so on It has been a massive help in organizing my life in lots of little ways. Right down to shopping lists. Sometimes, like now, I even browse on it.