An editorial on iPad sales and competition

[RockdaMan]

Originally Posted by nesler

They're not just marketing the tablets to the relatively small subsection of their customer base that has an interest in e-readers. It's not the e-reader market, they're appealing to, but rather the Amazon market as a whole.

Why do you think they made the big move with their app store, and the Netflix-type offerings? They have a massive warehouse of digital media (movies, tv, applications, books) that dwarfs what Apple has, and this is their big push, to make all of that available via one device.

You are correct.

[kjk]

Originally Posted by Graham

Those figures refer to the number of Android tablets shipped to resellers, not tablets sold. They were widely commented on as being misleading. While the Android share certainly is growing, I think the current figure for sales is estimated to be between 15% and 20% of the market. I also suspect that that is based on activations of Honeycomb as not all the individual manufacturers quote sales numbers.

I think you are right, Graham. HP's Touchpad is another good example of the shipped vs. sold discrepancy-they reportedly "shipped" 270,000 Touchpads to BestBuy, who only "sold" 25,000, which is less than 10%.

[Graham]

See my post above. The report was this one:

http://www.strategyanalytics.com/def...viewer&a0=6494

which is summarised as (my emphasis):

Global tablet shipments soared 331% annually in Q2 2011. After the tablet category's first year of existence, Apple's iPad continues to dominate due to a solid retail presence and unmatched brand excitement. The Android community is expanding fast, while Microsoft and RIM's QNX battle for third place. This report contains quarterly global tablet shipments by operating system from Q1 2010 through Q2 2011.

Graham

[Graham]

From an external quote in RockDaMan's post above:

Given that the latest numbers from Google say that Honeycomb is still less than 1% of the Android OS distribution, obviously the majority of Android tablets in the market are running what is really the phone version of the OS.

Good point. Sloppy thinking on my part. Scratch my comment above about sales figures being based on Honeycomb activations.

Graham

[kjk]

Originally Posted by tubemonkey

It's Apple math and understanding only arises from within a black hole

lol, Apple's math is pretty transparent compared to other company reports. How many other companies report actual sales numbers of their products, along with the revenues they generated?

(And they can be remarkably nebulous about numbers when choose to be-i.e. AppleTV, specific iPod models, etc.)

[RockdaMan]

Originally Posted by kjk

lol, Apple's math is pretty transparent compared to other company reports. How many other companies report actual sales numbers of their products, along with the revenues they generated?

(And they can be remarkably nebulous about numbers when choose to be-i.e. AppleTV, specific iPod models, etc.)

[Sil_liS]

Originally Posted by RockdaMan

It's easy to be snarky on the Internet. Truth is, those numbers don't say what you think they say.

What Does Market Share Mean?
The percentage of an industry or market's total sales that is earned by a particular company over a specified time period. Market share is calculated by taking the company's sales over the period and dividing it by the total sales of the industry over the same period. This metric is used to give a general idea of the size of a company to its market and its competitors.

I've come to the conclusion, that despite the title of your OP, some people are actually buying android tablets, and the number is growing. The ipad was just there first.

Originally Posted by Graham

Those figures refer to the number of Android tablets shipped to resellers, not tablets sold. They were widely commented on as being misleading. While the Android share certainly is growing, I think the current figure for sales is estimated to be between 15% and 20% of the market. I also suspect that that is based on activations of Honeycomb as not all the individual manufacturers quote sales numbers.

Depending on the date when the values were estimated you may be right, but since the percentage is growing, they would be higher today. Can you give a quote for those values?

[Sil_liS]

Originally Posted by kjk

lol, Apple's math is pretty transparent compared to other company reports. How many other companies report actual sales numbers of their products, along with the revenues they generated?

(And they can be remarkably nebulous about numbers when choose to be-i.e. AppleTV, specific iPod models, etc.)

I can't seem to find shipped vs sold numbers for ipad.

[Graham]

Originally Posted by Sil_liS

Depending on the date when the values were estimated you may be right, but since the percentage is growing, they would be higher today. Can you give a quote for those values?

No, I can't, sorry. As noted above, since the companies don't give figures for sales, such a report isn't out there.

However, if you Google 'android market share' you'll see that there have been a number of reports giving Android 20% to 30% of shipments in Q2. Since there have been plenty of stories about poor sales for some high profile tablets, with only the original Samsung Tab and the Asus Transformer really taking off, we can assume that the Android sales share is some way below these.

If the Android manufacturers were really selling even close to all the tablets they were shipping they would be letting us know, the way Samsung and Asus did with their devices. We do know that Apple are selling most if not all of their iPad in a reasonable period since shipments.

On the other hand, the true Android tablet market is still young (i.e. since Honeycomb arrived) and yes, we'll see it grow, but will it surpass iPad share?

I'm a big fan of Android, but I do suspect that larger-size tablets might prove to be a fad, and that what people really want is an iPad, not a tablet.

Graham

[Lazybones]

Do they count the Nook Color as an Android tablet? I imagine most purchasers just use it as an e-book reader, but I've read a lot of posts about people who root and use it as a low-cost tablet.

[kjk]

Originally Posted by Sil_liS

I can't seem to find shipped vs sold numbers for ipad.

Apple doesn't report shipped, only sold. But a big part of that is because Apple is the retailer in most cases.

One other thing Apple reports in their conference calls is inventory channel stock for iPads and iPhones-they are (usually) upfront about how much product is in inventory in terms of weeks, which isn't that common from other companies to my knowlege. Apple wants 4-6 weeks of inventory stock, typically. With the iPhone 4, that was in some cases down almost zero, which means they couldn't make enough.

So the Apple finance board guys can calculate by quarter how much product Apple has not just sold, but also how backed up they are in terms of what is available *to* sell (or, in bad times, how much is stuck unsold-which hasn't been an issue lately for iPads or iPhones).

Again, they are also sometimes very quiet about inventory channel stock-I've never heard them claim they have 4-6 weeks inventory for the AppleTV, or Macs for that matter, which may mean they have a lot of inventory for those products.

[kjk]

Originally Posted by Lazybones

Do they count the Nook Color as an Android tablet? I imagine most purchasers just use it as an e-book reader, but I've read a lot of posts about people who root and use it as a low-cost tablet.

Well, I count it as an Android tablet

But if you are asking if Google counts it as an Android activation, I don't know.

[Sil_liS]

Originally Posted by Graham

However, if you Google 'android market share' you'll see that there have been a number of reports giving Android 20% to 30% of shipments in Q2. Since there have been plenty of stories about poor sales for some high profile tablets, with only the original Samsung Tab and the Asus Transformer really taking off, we can assume that the Android sales share is some way below these.

The first result for android market share states: Android at 48% Market Share in Q2, second one is from April, third states: Android market share nears 50% worldwide.
I'm guessing that the numbers are higher because they aren't limited to tablets, and the phones had better success.

Originally Posted by Graham

On the other hand, the true Android tablet market is still young (i.e. since Honeycomb arrived) and yes, we'll see it grow, but will it surpass iPad share?

Analysts say yes, in 2016.

[Graham]

Originally Posted by Sil_liS

I'm guessing that the numbers are higher because they aren't limited to tablets, and the phones had better success.

Apologies, yes, those include phones. I meant to type "android tablet market share".

Graham

[Graham]

Originally Posted by Sil_liS

Analysts say yes, in 2016.

We'll see. I wonder how many of the larger devices will be in the form of netbooks with detachable screens.

I can see a growing market for 7" devices.

Graham