Piracy vs Bookstores - Page 16

brecklundin · 03-23-2008, 07:15 PM

I know this is an old portion of this issue but I wonder what, if any, truly independent objective risk-analysis has been done to evaluate the revenue generation of DRM free content at a lower price vs. the status quo. It just seems that given proper analysis revenue would increase as would profit if something as minimal as portability was added via a universal DRM format or even pure wide open non-DRM.

I wish I had now spent time becoming an actuary instead of plain a plain old mathematician. And I am too cranky and tired to learn the whole topic...

No matter what the publishers and those on their side of the fence say, the cost of ebooks should be lower. And since the publishers pay a license fee to whoever's DRM they use, I would assume that cost at worst might be equal to the actual printing costs. Though there are many other costs...including transportation and middleman markup's. With ebooks, there really does not need to be the wholesaler/jobber in the middle. Simple deals directly with online sellers should be enough. It might be tough for many publishers to venture into the direct sales market simply because of the overhead to develop the underlying technology to sell and deliver the content. so, resellers will be part of the deal for a long time. THOUGH with Google it might be possible to create them as a content aggregator for all the publishers via some sort of marketplace. And Google would make their money via selling targeted ads based on the books you search for. But as usual I digress...

Even some more device agnostic DRM would work fine though it would still have the per-sale or blanket license fees.

I have to believe the overall sales would be higher the more open access people have to ebooks. I have mentioned in other threads, lower cost ebooks combined with lower cost reader devices will capture a significant number of those who otherwise would by exclusively via the used market. Thus opening a whole new revenue stream which currently publishers have zero access to, much to their chagrin I am sure.

I actually do feel at least Amazon will move in this direction before Sony. Sony is as closed and proprietary a company as you might find. And that includes IBM. Their history does not lend itself to becoming a more open system.

I am also willing to bet that Amazon would be happy to embrace the Sony reader device and also add the Sony format to the Kindle, if Sony would agree to it. My money is on the idea that Amazon first tried to simply work out a deal with Sony themselves before going forward with their own reader. So now we have what is not really competition but rather a fracture in the ebook world all over formats.

Like some of the authors here have mentioned I guess there is momentum building toward a DRM ePub format that could easily be universal and device agnostic. I guess we can dream.

As for the idea of piracy vs. buying. To me the only motivation I might have for a darknet edition is lack of availability in any ebook format. Still I have yet to Darknet a single book. Thanks to Harry T., et. al., I have too many other books to read to really worry about any author/publisher who refuses my business.

That is what it comes down to, the current publishing cartels are telling us they simply do not want our business. Well, fine by me. I have 500+ years of books I can find and download completely free, legally. Heck, I could just get The Iliad & Odyssey and spend the next 1000 years reading that...hehehehe...

Wait I did bend the rules just a teeny bit...I found a copy of The Seven Pillars of Wisdom by T.E. Lawrence (aka Lawrence of Arabia for the unfamiliar) on a site in Australia where it's in whatever they call the public domain. Somehow I missed any of the pages explaining I was a bad person for living in the US and d/l'ing the book...oh, well, come and take away my birthday for it...

Otherwise when I buy it's from Baen (Wescriptions are GREAT!!), indy authors, Fictionwise (as a rule only the 100% micropay rebate stuff) and anyone else who is reasonable about pricing for .mobi format as I now use my Nokia N800 as my front line reader over my nx73v Clie. I suspect I will likely be adding Tor to that list soon enough.

EDIT:

Perhaps a universal DRM system could be developed around "keychain dongle" like used now by many places including PayPal/eBay. They works great, are pretty easy for anyone to use and could easily address setting up a book for a device if the reading software folks are allowed access to add the system into their existing software. ????

Taylor514ce · 03-23-2008, 07:29 PM

https://www.mobileread.com/forums/sho...9&postcount=17

JSWolf · 03-23-2008, 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patricia

Actually, I don't know that Jon has ever downloaded an illegal book. He seemed to be talking generally - and I agree with him that some publishers' actions are inexplicable.

But you are right to point out that an individual is responsible for her (or his) own actions. (This was one of my points in my previous contribution to this thread.)

I am talking in general. And I do agree that individuals are responsible for his/her actions.

I can see the justification on some of this though. I'm not saying I agree or disagree, just that I understand it.Do you want to carry around a paperback book and your reader just to read a given book series because the publisher is not able to understand how to publish a series of books as eBooks so the series is complete?

So why cannot publishers realize that when you put out book 3 of a series as an eBook, that books 1 & 2 also NEED to be there as eBooks too? The other obnoxious thing that do is book 1 is Adobe PDF and book 2 is MS Reader and book 3 is BBeB. So how do you deal when they do those sorts of things?

I think the publishers should hire some people who actually have a portable reading device and actually read eBooks to help with them. I'd be happy to give advise to some publishing company on how to do it.

kovidgoyal · 03-23-2008, 08:19 PM

This thread is really making me miss a skull and crossbones emoticon

JSWolf · 03-23-2008, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brecklundin

I actually do feel at least Amazon will move in this direction before Sony. Sony is as closed and proprietary a company as you might find. And that includes IBM. Their history does not lend itself to becoming a more open system.

How is Sony more closed then Amazon? Both have multi-device DRM. And Sony eBooks can at least be read on a Windows based computer where the Amazon eBooks cannot. That to me actually makes Amazon the more closed of the two.

RobbieClarken · 03-23-2008, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JSWolf

How is Sony more closed then Amazon? Both have multi-device DRM. And Sony eBooks can at least be read on a Windows based computer where the Amazon eBooks cannot. That to me actually makes Amazon the more closed of the two.

Amazon sells DRM-free mp3s and made this a selling point. I bet they (and Sony) know too well that customers don't like DRM and if either had enough influence to convince publishers to release ebooks without DRM they would do so. But for the time being publishers are too scared of this new era of books (and IMO they have good reason to be) so not many would sign on with Amazon if it weren't for DRM.

JSWolf · 03-23-2008, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by epiphany

Amazon sells DRM-free mp3s and made this a selling point. I bet they (and Sony) know too well that customers don't like DRM and if either had enough influence to convince publishers to release ebooks without DRM they would do so. But for the time being publishers are too scared of this new era of books (and IMO they have good reason to be) so not many would sign on with Amazon if it weren't for DRM.

But, just because Amazon sells DRM free mp3 does not mean that Amazon is more open then Sony. Different business., Not really comparable these days. As we know, what happens with online selling of music does not influence (at the moment) what happens with online eBook sales. One DRM does not affect the other.

Darqref · 03-24-2008, 01:58 AM

replying to several messages up-thread.

Harry, I just spent a weekend at a SF convention. One panel was on the concept of giving away ebooks, and how that does and/or should effect other sales.

One panelist who has inside information about the actual results told about the Steven King serial experiment. Mr King set a limit of a certain percentage of the people downloading that were needed to pay for the download, for the story to continue. I don't remember what he said the actual number was, but I think it was something like 70%. The actual results were closer to 30%. From Mr King's expectations, this was a dismal failure, and the experiment ended. From the publisher's standpoint, it was wildly successful! Lots of money was made, and every bookseller and publisher around said they would have been very happy with the results.

Similarly, the Radiohead free download produced actual results of almost 60% of downloaders paying something for the music, and they made LOTS of money. Then additional money from a physical product, then even more from a premium product that included extras (I'm not a radiohead fan, so I don't even know what they might have included in a premium release).

Of course, both of these products are for well-known artists, done through a well-known venue.

I think Richard Herley''s experiment might be worded inelegantly (I haven't taken time to go look and/or download). It's very possible that percentage sold might increase as time goes on, and I do remember reading in earlier messages that he asked to "only pay if you're satisfied." Under those circumstances, I'd probably choose one to try; if I liked it enough to go back for more, I'd pay for it plus the extras I chose, otherwise I probably wouldn't go look again and therefore wouldn't pay. It depends on how *much* I liked the book, and whether I thought the others might be a different subject or style.

I *did* find time (a couple of weeks ago) to look at Steve Jordan's books, and based on what I saw plus previous descriptions of the books in the forums here, I decided to go for the package deal. They're on my Gen3 and I'll probably get to one of them by next week or so.

My best judgment on both Steve Jordan's and Richard Herley's efforts, is that their problem isn't piracy, it's obscurity. I would know nothing about either of these efforts without reading about them here. I'd recommend trying to get at least one of each of their books onto a more popular site such as Fictionwise, or maybe the Baen Free Library. Hmm, I guess Steve's Amazon listing helps too, but that probably won't reach non-Kindle readers.

Darqref · 03-24-2008, 02:04 AM

I believe that both of the statements below are true.

1. As an individual downloading reader, it is wrong to not pay for a legal ebook, when requested. There are cases where status as a handicapped person, a serving military person on active duty, a student, or other such persons, are allowed *by the publisher* to pay either nothing or a reduced price. While we sympathize with someone who truly doesn't have money to buy lots of books, it is still truly wrong to not pay for the content you obtain.

BUT.

2. From a publisher's viewpoint, it is NOT TRUE that each download without payment is a lost sale. There is a *potential* sale, but it is simply a fact that some of those infringing downloads would never have been an actual sale. It is also true that sometimes the infringing download will result in an actual sale through recommendation, purchase of follow-on material, or follow-up purchase of the same content when there is an ability to pay.

Now, I also believe the best overall sales will result from being lenient about "pirated" downloads, as long as the actual content is easy to purchase, and available at a fair price. Every download contributes to the overall popularity of the work, and thenceforth to the overall popularity of an author's other works(s), even if it isn't paid for. As long as it's easier to find the legal sale than an illegal product, this will eventually result in higher sales.

JSWolf · 03-24-2008, 06:53 AM

Lost sales can be the fault of the publisher. if you go to an online eBook site and see an eBook in a series that you want has just been released and it's book 3 but books 1 & 2 are not available at all, you may not be purchasing book 3. What might happen is you'll go hit up the darknet to find 1 & 2 and also see maybe if 3 is available as well. Now if 1-3 has all been available, you would have purchased them. When publishers do a 1/2 assed job, it can and often does drive people to the darknet.

HarryT · 03-24-2008, 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JSWolf

Lost sales can be the fault of the publisher. if you go to an online eBook site and see an eBook in a series that you want has just been released and it's book 3 but books 1 & 2 are not available at all, you may not be purchasing book 3. What might happen is you'll go hit up the darknet to find 1 & 2 and also see maybe if 3 is available as well. Now if 1-3 has all been available, you would have purchased them. When publishers do a 1/2 assed job, it can and often does drive people to the darknet.

You are describing the operation of the "criminal mind", Jon. What an HONEST person would do is say "OK, book 3 is available as an eBook; I'll buy 1 and 2 as paperbacks".

rationalbiker · 03-24-2008, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JSWolf

Lost sales can be the fault of the publisher.

I agree, lost sales can be the fault of the publisher. However, piracy is not lost sales. Piracy is an act that goes beyond merely not buying the book.

And nothing 'drives' people to the darknet except themselves. HarryT makes the proper distinction between how honest people respond and how thieves respond.

Quote:

What might happen is you'll go hit up the darknet

Yes, if you are a dishonest person who has little to no value for the concept of justice, this is what you might do. But if you do that, it was by no fault of the publisher, it was entirely your fault for choosing to do so.

TallMomof2 · 03-24-2008, 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarryT

You are describing the operation of the "criminal mind", Jon. What an HONEST person would do is say "OK, book 3 is available as an eBook; I'll buy 1 and 2 as paperbacks".

Not me, I've stopped reading pbook fiction. If the previous books in the series aren't available I won't read the series. There have been numerous mentions here at MobileRead of series that interest me. However, most of them aren't available in ebook format so I won't be reading any until all are available legally as ebooks.

RobbieClarken · 03-24-2008, 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rationalbiker

And nothing 'drives' people to the darknet except themselves. HarryT makes the proper distinction between how honest people respond and how thieves respond.
...
Yes, if you are a dishonest person who has little to no value for the concept of justice, this is what you might do.

We also hate puppies.

Nate the great · 03-24-2008, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by epiphany

Quote:

Originally Posted by rationalbiker

And nothing 'drives' people to the darknet except themselves. HarryT makes the proper distinction between how honest people respond and how thieves respond.
...
Yes, if you are a dishonest person who has little to no value for the concept of justice, this is what you might do.

We also hate puppies.

I also wrote the screenplay to Gigli.

03-23-2008, 07:15 PM	#226
brecklundin Banned Posts: 1,906 Karma: 15348 Join Date: Jun 2007 Device: mine	I know this is an old portion of this issue but I wonder what, if any, truly independent objective risk-analysis has been done to evaluate the revenue generation of DRM free content at a lower price vs. the status quo. It just seems that given proper analysis revenue would increase as would profit if something as minimal as portability was added via a universal DRM format or even pure wide open non-DRM. I wish I had now spent time becoming an actuary instead of plain a plain old mathematician. And I am too cranky and tired to learn the whole topic... No matter what the publishers and those on their side of the fence say, the cost of ebooks should be lower. And since the publishers pay a license fee to whoever's DRM they use, I would assume that cost at worst might be equal to the actual printing costs. Though there are many other costs...including transportation and middleman markup's. With ebooks, there really does not need to be the wholesaler/jobber in the middle. Simple deals directly with online sellers should be enough. It might be tough for many publishers to venture into the direct sales market simply because of the overhead to develop the underlying technology to sell and deliver the content. so, resellers will be part of the deal for a long time. THOUGH with Google it might be possible to create them as a content aggregator for all the publishers via some sort of marketplace. And Google would make their money via selling targeted ads based on the books you search for. But as usual I digress... Even some more device agnostic DRM would work fine though it would still have the per-sale or blanket license fees. I have to believe the overall sales would be higher the more open access people have to ebooks. I have mentioned in other threads, lower cost ebooks combined with lower cost reader devices will capture a significant number of those who otherwise would by exclusively via the used market. Thus opening a whole new revenue stream which currently publishers have zero access to, much to their chagrin I am sure. I actually do feel at least Amazon will move in this direction before Sony. Sony is as closed and proprietary a company as you might find. And that includes IBM. Their history does not lend itself to becoming a more open system. I am also willing to bet that Amazon would be happy to embrace the Sony reader device and also add the Sony format to the Kindle, if Sony would agree to it. My money is on the idea that Amazon first tried to simply work out a deal with Sony themselves before going forward with their own reader. So now we have what is not really competition but rather a fracture in the ebook world all over formats. Like some of the authors here have mentioned I guess there is momentum building toward a DRM ePub format that could easily be universal and device agnostic. I guess we can dream. As for the idea of piracy vs. buying. To me the only motivation I might have for a darknet edition is lack of availability in any ebook format. Still I have yet to Darknet a single book. Thanks to Harry T., et. al., I have too many other books to read to really worry about any author/publisher who refuses my business. That is what it comes down to, the current publishing cartels are telling us they simply do not want our business. Well, fine by me. I have 500+ years of books I can find and download completely free, legally. Heck, I could just get The Iliad & Odyssey and spend the next 1000 years reading that...hehehehe... Wait I did bend the rules just a teeny bit...I found a copy of The Seven Pillars of Wisdom by T.E. Lawrence (aka Lawrence of Arabia for the unfamiliar) on a site in Australia where it's in whatever they call the public domain. Somehow I missed any of the pages explaining I was a bad person for living in the US and d/l'ing the book...oh, well, come and take away my birthday for it... Otherwise when I buy it's from Baen (Wescriptions are GREAT!!), indy authors, Fictionwise (as a rule only the 100% micropay rebate stuff) and anyone else who is reasonable about pricing for .mobi format as I now use my Nokia N800 as my front line reader over my nx73v Clie. I suspect I will likely be adding Tor to that list soon enough. EDIT: Perhaps a universal DRM system could be developed around "keychain dongle" like used now by many places including PayPal/eBay. They works great, are pretty easy for anyone to use and could easily address setting up a book for a device if the reading software folks are allowed access to add the system into their existing software. ???? Last edited by brecklundin; 03-23-2008 at 07:21 PM.

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03-23-2008, 07:29 PM	#227
Taylor514ce Actively passive. Posts: 2,042 Karma: 478376 Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: US Device: Sony PRS-505/LC	https://www.mobileread.com/forums/sho...9&postcount=17

03-23-2008, 08:19 PM	#229
kovidgoyal creator of calibre Posts: 45,423 Karma: 27757236 Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Mumbai, India Device: Various	This thread is really making me miss a skull and crossbones emoticon

03-24-2008, 01:58 AM	#233
Darqref space cadet Posts: 334 Karma: 2999999 Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Seattle area Device: Rocket PRO, gen3, Pocketbook360	replying to several messages up-thread. Harry, I just spent a weekend at a SF convention. One panel was on the concept of giving away ebooks, and how that does and/or should effect other sales. One panelist who has inside information about the actual results told about the Steven King serial experiment. Mr King set a limit of a certain percentage of the people downloading that were needed to pay for the download, for the story to continue. I don't remember what he said the actual number was, but I think it was something like 70%. The actual results were closer to 30%. From Mr King's expectations, this was a dismal failure, and the experiment ended. From the publisher's standpoint, it was wildly successful! Lots of money was made, and every bookseller and publisher around said they would have been very happy with the results. Similarly, the Radiohead free download produced actual results of almost 60% of downloaders paying something for the music, and they made LOTS of money. Then additional money from a physical product, then even more from a premium product that included extras (I'm not a radiohead fan, so I don't even know what they might have included in a premium release). Of course, both of these products are for well-known artists, done through a well-known venue. I think Richard Herley''s experiment might be worded inelegantly (I haven't taken time to go look and/or download). It's very possible that percentage sold might increase as time goes on, and I do remember reading in earlier messages that he asked to "only pay if you're satisfied." Under those circumstances, I'd probably choose one to try; if I liked it enough to go back for more, I'd pay for it plus the extras I chose, otherwise I probably wouldn't go look again and therefore wouldn't pay. It depends on how much I liked the book, and whether I thought the others might be a different subject or style. I did find time (a couple of weeks ago) to look at Steve Jordan's books, and based on what I saw plus previous descriptions of the books in the forums here, I decided to go for the package deal. They're on my Gen3 and I'll probably get to one of them by next week or so. My best judgment on both Steve Jordan's and Richard Herley's efforts, is that their problem isn't piracy, it's obscurity. I would know nothing about either of these efforts without reading about them here. I'd recommend trying to get at least one of each of their books onto a more popular site such as Fictionwise, or maybe the Baen Free Library. Hmm, I guess Steve's Amazon listing helps too, but that probably won't reach non-Kindle readers.

03-24-2008, 02:04 AM	#234
Darqref space cadet Posts: 334 Karma: 2999999 Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Seattle area Device: Rocket PRO, gen3, Pocketbook360	I believe that both of the statements below are true. 1. As an individual downloading reader, it is wrong to not pay for a legal ebook, when requested. There are cases where status as a handicapped person, a serving military person on active duty, a student, or other such persons, are allowed by the publisher to pay either nothing or a reduced price. While we sympathize with someone who truly doesn't have money to buy lots of books, it is still truly wrong to not pay for the content you obtain. BUT. 2. From a publisher's viewpoint, it is NOT TRUE that each download without payment is a lost sale. There is a potential sale, but it is simply a fact that some of those infringing downloads would never have been an actual sale. It is also true that sometimes the infringing download will result in an actual sale through recommendation, purchase of follow-on material, or follow-up purchase of the same content when there is an ability to pay. Now, I also believe the best overall sales will result from being lenient about "pirated" downloads, as long as the actual content is easy to purchase, and available at a fair price. Every download contributes to the overall popularity of the work, and thenceforth to the overall popularity of an author's other works(s), even if it isn't paid for. As long as it's easier to find the legal sale than an illegal product, this will eventually result in higher sales.

03-24-2008, 06:53 AM	#235
JSWolf Resident Curmudgeon Posts: 79,898 Karma: 146918083 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Roslindale, Massachusetts Device: Kobo Libra 2, Kobo Aura H2O, PRS-650, PRS-T1, nook STR, PW3	Lost sales can be the fault of the publisher. if you go to an online eBook site and see an eBook in a series that you want has just been released and it's book 3 but books 1 & 2 are not available at all, you may not be purchasing book 3. What might happen is you'll go hit up the darknet to find 1 & 2 and also see maybe if 3 is available as well. Now if 1-3 has all been available, you would have purchased them. When publishers do a 1/2 assed job, it can and often does drive people to the darknet.

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