Kindle e-Book piracy accelerates - from CNET

[spellbanisher]

Reading the links provided by Kali Yuga I can't help but notice how insular the music industry seems to be in regards to the economy. They note that from 2004-2009 global music sales declined 30%, and they attribute this decline primarily to piracy.

I can only speak for the perspective of the United States, but when the US economy crashed in 08 the average American was spending 108% of their income, meaning, they were spending more than they were making. If people are already spending more than what they make, how can their be any growth for content industries? Creative content is pretty low on people's list of spending priorities. Income in the United States has been stagnant since 1980. Consumption in the Twenty-First century has been fueled almost entirely by credit. Education has become much more expensive. Food has become more expensive. Fuel has become more expensive. Housing has become more expensive. Yet wages have been stagnant. Twenty first century economic growth in America was largely an illusion supported by short-term credit, except for the top .01 percent of the population, whose earnings have grown exponentially. I forget the name, but an economist once noted that for the vast majority of people economic growth is a spectator sport.

I think the nature of technology, its rapid growth and change, may also have had a detrimental effect on content industries. If we are always buying new expensive gadgets every year--new computers and tvs and phones and music players--we have less money to spend on content. Even now in a recession people are still buying tablets like crazy. I don't expect content industries to grow any time soon, at least not until we have an economic system that provides more purchasing power for people in the middle class.

[spellbanisher]

To add to what I wrote above, content industries exist to feed off or to provide uses for excess wealth created by other industries. If there is no excess wealth, there can be no growth for content industries.

[NVash]

Theres another good point but doesnt that moreso justify piracy than anything else? Everyone is now downloading books and CDs because of the fact that they couldnt afford them even if they wanted to due to the economy? Or am I missing something here?

[spellbanisher]

Originally Posted by NVash

Theres another good point but doesnt that moreso justify piracy than anything else? Everyone is now downloading books and CDs because of the fact that they couldnt afford them even if they wanted to due to the economy? Or am I missing something here?

I don't understand what you are saying here? Are you saying that the bad economy justifies piracy? Or that I said that, Because i wasn't saying that. Also I wasn't trying to say that people pirate because of the bad economy. I was trying to say that content industries can't expect much growth if the overall economy isn't growing or if average purchasing power doesn't increase.

Young people will pirate. The problem is that industries focus too much on younger demographics. What they should be worried about is older consumers who buy less and less content because they increasingly are having to work more and still make less money, meaning they have less free time to consume and less discretionary income.

[Supine]

Originally Posted by spellbanisher

Young people will pirate.

Is that based on the facts/assumptions that
- young people are more internet savvy
- they don't have enough money to buy things
- they just don't have any morality

I am not that young, but I find that offending. I admit though that there are more young people among pirates because of the above reasons but it does not really mean ''young people will pirate''

[spellbanisher]

It is a truth universally acknowledged...jk.
No, i did not mean all young people, but there will always be a lot of young people who pirate and they will probably continue to be the primary culprits. It's very similar to how young people used to get their books from the library more than not-so-young people, but when they got older they tended to buy books instead of borrow them (now no one goes to the library). We tend to believe everyone walks around with the mindset that the only reason anyone buys anything is because of legal apparatus and government enforcement. People aren't socialist hippy's who will freely share and give, but they also aren't all greedy tightfisted bastards who thinks every transaction with another human being is a zero-sum game. If we are well-off we tend to be more generous with our money than if we are scrounging every penny to get by.

I'd actually say the reason why young people pirate more is because they have more time and energy to do it. Not-so-young people usually want convenience, ease, and security, whereas young people are, lets say more adventurous when it comes to the internet.

[NVash]

Originally Posted by spellbanisher

I don't understand what you are saying here? Are you saying that the bad economy justifies piracy? Or that I said that, Because i wasn't saying that. Also I wasn't trying to say that people pirate because of the bad economy. I was trying to say that content industries can't expect much growth if the overall economy isn't growing or if average purchasing power doesn't increase.

Young people will pirate. The problem is that industries focus too much on younger demographics. What they should be worried about is older consumers who buy less and less content because they increasingly are having to work more and still make less money, meaning they have less free time to consume and less discretionary income.

Thats exactly what I was asking you, what you were trying to say. To me it read like a justification of piracy. In a way it still does. You raise a very good point about the content industry but I doubt anyone on their end cares. They know what they know and thats all they know. Its not the young or the old, its everyone. Who cares why they pirate, who cares about the economy, who cares about any of that. Fact is they lose money, so they say, and thats all they care about.

Honestly I think they ought to focus more on chocking out better products. IMHO theres no reason why a book should have a one or two star rating on Amazon. Dont these people have quality control? And CDs? Look at new music out nowadays, all the people you hear on the radio. Go look them up on Amazon. Now you tell me how many good ratings they got. Last time I checked most were around three and a half stars. Most times when I buy CDs I found the content to be flat out junk and wished I had my money back. http://torrentfreak.com/piracy-horro...eality-110120/ , check that out and then read the comment by The Truth in the comments section.

"We don't want your whole overpriced CD full of album filler & 2 semi-decent songs...

DEAL WITH IT!!!"

Thats a direct quote and thats exactly how I felt when I bought most of my CDs. I always found one or two good songs but most were filler and terrible. One had the audacity to just be all the songs twice but in different languages. I cant tell you how ripped off I felt when I played that one. I still buy CDs but I wait until theyre dirt cheap now. What about all the double dipping going on with all these various editions of CDs? Regular, Deluxe with two new songs, Super Ultra Great Job edition with two songs and an interview never before seen plus commentary on a McDonald's breakfast they got that morning, do we need all this crap? Do it right the first time, thats what I think. But just as these people dont care whos doing the piracy they sure wont take time to make sure the product is worth buying. You know, I buy Kindle books now and Im reading one at the moment. I paid around $10 for it. I couldve bought it off of the MarketPlace for around $4, $1 for the book and $3 for shipping, but I wanted it then. Im disgraced and almost insulted by the amount of formatting errors I see in this book. And the fact that I paid over twice what I should have doesnt make me feel any better. Thats bull IMHO.

That whole rant could read as a justification for piracy as well. Im not justifying anything. Im just saying that most of these industries need to look inward and fix the problems that people complain about. CDs, most are junk. Books, prices, formatting, whichever else. Then you can worry about the pirates.

[spellbanisher]

In the early days of Rome, before it was a big-shot empire or advanced Republic (the correct term for the period of emperors beginning with Augustus is the principate, since Rome was an empire even while it was still a Republic) warfare was seasonal. It has been suggested that one of the reasons for summer warfare was to give energetic young men something to do so that they would not spend their free time tying the neighbors chickens together(i don't think there were chickens in Ancient Rome) and getting into other shenanigans.

Today we have after school activities and summer sports to direct young peoples excess energies into less destructive pursuits. There is also World of Warcraft.

[NVash]

World Of Warcraft is a terrible example. I know. Ive lost friends to it. For the entire summer no one knew where they were, they were playing Warcraft. That game cuts them off from society and takes over their lives. Thats a really bad thing for a game to do but thats just my opinion. Maybe some people know when to quit playing it. Most I know dont.

[spellbanisher]

You make some interesting points NVASH. My experience with Amazon has been different; most of the products I see have four or four and a half stars, and they are usually overrated.

It is also true that for years music companies used pop hits and radio songs to sell albums that were 90 percent junk, and part of the reason piracy started was because people didn't want to pay 20$ for an album with one or two good songs or 5-10$ for a single.
I think digital music solves that problem by allowing you to buy individual songs for .99$. You usually can also listen to any song before you buy it.

I think piracy has incited needed change in the content industries. They complain about money loss, but we see them experimenting with new models such as the netflix model or advertising models. The music industry was stagnant in the nineties even though music sales were through the roof. I think piracy has helped break them out of their complacency, forced them to realize that the customer is not just some cow to be milked, forced them to realize (for now) that the best business model is finding ways to make listening and buying and choosing music more enjoyable, convenient, and affordable.

[spellbanisher]

Originally Posted by NVash

World Of Warcraft is a terrible example. I know. Ive lost friends to it. For the entire summer no one knew where they were, they were playing Warcraft. That game cuts them off from society and takes over their lives. Thats a really bad thing for a game to do but thats just my opinion. Maybe some people know when to quit playing it. Most I know dont.

Yes, but at least they are not out spray painting walls and driving cars into trees. So you could say that world of warcraft has saved their life.

[MovieBird]

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

I may be missing critical details, but as far as I know, there are no "peer-reviewed" studies on the subject. If you're familiar with any, please feel free to link them.

Which was precisely my point, you keep throwing out numbers as facts, when there is no credible basis for these numbers. I don't have any peer reviewed studies of my own, but I'm not quantifying losses or claiming precision in those losses.

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

Possibly the closest thing is the GAO study from last April (http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d10423.pdf). So, do you plan to blast a report by the United States Government Accounting Office (the independent non-partisan research department of Congress) as biased, before or after you read it?

Hey, what can I say, if I read an introduction, or abstract as they called in at Uni, and it smacks of poor procedure or bias, I write off the rest of the lengthy document without wasting my time. That said, I'm working through the IFPI report whenever I have a minute or two.

On page 13, it states that in 2004 digital was 2% of revenue at 420 million. In 2010, 29% at 4.6 billion. Well, 420/0.02 = 21,000, or 21 billion. 4.6/.29 = 15.86 billion. Huh? but on page 5 they say they've experienced a 31% decrease overall. That, from 21 billion, would equal 14.49 billion. Where'd that extra billion go?

Mainly what I'm looking for is a methodology, which I haven't come across in the IFPI report as of yet. Page 16 says "Digital Piracy - Counting the Costs", yet doesn't tell me HOW they count them?

For the GAO, forgive me, but it doesn't appear to deal with digital goods. They specifically mention substitution of counterfeit goods for legitimate goods, which leans towards physical items. Additionally, they often speak of pharmaceuticals. Here, I'll quote one passage for you:

Originally Posted by GAO

According to experts we spoke with and literature we reviewed,
estimating the economic impact of IP infringements is extremely difficult,
and assumptions must be used due to the absence of data. Assumptions,
such as the rate at which consumers would substitute counterfeit goods
for legitimate products, can have enormous impacts on the resulting
estimates and heighten the importance of transparency. Because of the
significant differences in types of counterfeit and pirated goods and
industries involved, no single method can be used to develop estimates,
and each method has limitations. Nonetheless, research in specific
industries suggest that the problem is sizeable. Most experts we spoke
with and the literature we reviewed observed that despite significant efforts, it is difficult, if not impossible, to quantify the net effect of
counterfeiting and piracy on the economy as a whole.

Emphasize mine. So, still not what we're looking for.

As far as numbers, I'll throw out a few of my own. There's a popular music tracker out there, one of many, which has according to their stats page, 96,047 FLAC torrents with seeders. Run the same search for MP3, and you get 192,207. However, that includes all bitrates for MP3s, so if you use a conservative factor of 2, leaving you with 96,103. Does that suggest that enthusiasts might care about the quality of their tunes?

Run a less fine grained search at the Bay, and you get approx 1,000 (that's what it says) for "flac", and 975 for "mp3". That's before you reduce the MP3s by any factor.

I don't currently have time to read more, but I'll attempt to get around to it since so many others seem to believe in the report

[Kali Yuga]

Originally Posted by NVash

Whats all this then? I know it happened in 2007 but shes in court now.

1) Her case was filed in 2005.
2) A single case does not equal, let alone represent, the totality of an enforcement effort.
3) The RIAA started suing people in 2004 and stopped in 2008, with the largest number of cases filed in 2005.

[crossi]

I don't think Spellbinder was trying to justify piracy. Only someone with a fixation on piracy could jump to that conclusion. It sounded more like he was trying to counter the music industry's claim that their problems were caused by piracy and not a combination of bad management and a bad economy. They would love to blame someone other than themselves for their problems instead of going to their stockholders and saying they made bad business decisions. Guess you can't blame them for trying not to get fired.

[spellbanisher]

Originally Posted by crossi

I don't think Spellbinder was trying to justify piracy.

This is offensive to me. I am not a spellbinder; it's spellbanisher. It comes from a line in a prospectus written by one of my college professors: "In his "Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte", Karl Marx combines the spellbinding power of the storyteller with the spell-banishing power of the historian."