CNET predicts dedicated ereaders are doomed technology

[ApK]

Originally Posted by OverTwo

Blu-ray?

Are you serious CNET?

I'm sorry but such ridiculous predictions will doom your site CNET. I can't believe a technology website thinks Blu-ray is a doomed.

It is. All physical A/V media distribution is doomed.
There is no need for any one to manufacture, pack, and ship a million plastic disks when the same content can be streamed directly to the customer on demand.

Bluray has sped that road to doom a little with it's playback and copy-protection incompatibility issues.

If I had to put a number on it (just a guess), I'd bet by the end of the decade, Bluray will be relegated to the role that VHS and audio cassette decks have today.

ApK

[Andrew H.]

Originally Posted by ApK

It is. All physical A/V media distribution is doomed.

This is as true now as it was in 1960. The big question, though, is when.

There is no need for any one to manufacture, pack, and ship a million plastic disks when the same content can be streamed directly to the customer on demand.

The "same" content can't really be conveniently streamed yet. The same film can be streamed, with similar, but lower, resolution.

Maybe that will be good enough, though.

A related issue, of course, is bandwidth. I have a 20 mbit/s download speed, which is respectable for the US - it's probably significantly faster than 90%+ of American residential users have. Yet - unless my math is way off - it would take me more than five hours to download a Blu-Ray disk. And that's assuming that there are no bandwidth caps and the connection stays good.

And of course a lot of users just have 768 kbit/s "broadband."

These issues are going to slow the adoption of purely downloaded media.

But I don't know for how long.

[Nathanael]

Originally Posted by astra

Maybe they are right. I am useless in trying to predict anything.

Most people - even professional pundits - are. But I think a lot of folk here are missing the point. It's not about whether you're right or they're wrong, but simply a conversation-starter for a discussion about market and tech trends.

Myself, I think they're right -- if stress is placed on dedicated. Sure e-reading is here to stay, but devices that do ereading alone probably will never make it past niche status. They'll get it from both ends. Multi-function devices will add e-reading capabilities to lure away the casual reader while at the same time, as technology improves, dedicated e-reader users will demand more functionality (five years ago most folk would probably have said WiFi in an e-reader? WTF?!; and I would love it if my Sibrary allowed me to take the occasional reading break with a quick game of Sudoko). And eventually market convergence will force POERs (plain-old-e-readers) off the radar.

While I personally love reading and my e-reader, my twenty to thirty books a year (underpowered though it may be by MR standards) puts me way up there in the bell curve. There aren't enough of us to sustain an entire market. And once I make the move to a tablet, I'm not sure the form-factor and battery life of my ereader will be enough to justify me carrying both.

--Nathanael

[Andrew H.]

Originally Posted by Nathanael

While I personally love reading and my e-reader, my twenty to thirty books a year (underpowered though it may be by MR standards) puts me way up there in the bell curve. There aren't enough of us to sustain an entire market.

--Nathanael

I'm not sure I agree with this. If there are enough readers to sustain a market for *books,* I think that there are enough people readers to sustain a market for dedicated e-readers.

It's certainly the case that neither the iPad nor the advent of agency pricing seem to have had much of an effect on e-readers sales in the US. A lot of people just don't want to read novels on LCD screens, and so far that's what it looks like tablets are bringing.

[Nathanael]

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

I'm not sure I agree with this. If there are enough readers to sustain a market for *books,* I think that there are enough people readers to sustain a market for dedicated e-readers.

I don't know. Certainly the ereading market isn't going to do anything but expand, probably like gangbusters. But that doesn't necessarily mean most of that's going to be happening on dedicated devices. With the iPad alone expected to outsell the entire dedicated ereader market by nearly three-fold this year (it blew way past the Kindle's annual sales figures in just its first two months out of the gate), I can't but believe that's having some impact on dedicated ereader sales.

I expect soon, if not already, we'll begin to see ereading growth outpace ereader growth. I'll not be at all surprised if, eventually, dedicated ereaders themselves become a niche market within the larger ereading phenomenon. Here at MR, for example, I think we're going to see a lot more members listing non-dedicated devices as primary or secondary devices (there's already a dedicated iDevice forum, and MR's just added an Android forum), maybe to the point where dedicated ereaders are eventually in the minority even on MR.

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

It's certainly the case that neither the iPad nor the advent of agency pricing seem to have had much of an effect on e-readers sales in the US.

While the question of agency pricing vis-a-vis ebook sales is an interesting discussion in its own right, I'm not sure it's relevant to the dedicated ereader market. As to the iPad's impact, it's been out less than a year, so I suspect it's too early to find any decent numbers on that. It may well have slowed market growth, but I don't think anyone knows yet.

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

A lot of people just don't want to read novels on LCD screens, and so far that's what it looks like tablets are bringing.

But then, a lot of people do. I offered my own wife as an anecdotal example in our other discussion, and I doubt she's alone. She won't buy an ereader, because she finds the e-ink display too hard to read; she wants the higher contrast backlighting offers, so she's biding her time for the iPad2.

In any case, LCD vs. e-ink is not necessarily the same discussion as dedicated device vs. tablet. As e-ink technology improves - as color e-ink finds its way into the market, and e-ink responsiveness and contrast improve - we may begin to see tablets with e-ink screens, who knows? Conversely, as ereader manufacturers begin to add features -- WiFi, web-surfing, music player, apps -- they begin to resemble more multi-function devices.

I'm certainly not predicting, and I don't know that dedicated ereaders are ever going away entirely, but I can't help but think they're headed for niche-market status.

--Nathanael

[ApK]

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

This is as true now as it was in 1960. The big question, though, is when.

I've made my prediction.
In the 60s the question was "in what decade or century will we have the technology?"
Now, it's "in what month or year will consumers make the choice?"

The "same" content can't really be conveniently streamed yet. The same film can be streamed, with similar, but lower, resolution.

You can already stream the same res as bluray in about 5mps of bandwith with better compression (like the HDX system of Vudu.com.) Of course 'resolution' is not the be-all-and-end-all of image quality, but the reports online seem to indicate that people who use those 1080p streams are currently happy with them. They will only get better.

And of course a lot of users just have 768 kbit/s "broadband."

A lot of people don't have bluray, or HDTVs too. We are predicting the future, not talking about the standards today.

These issues are going to slow the adoption of purely downloaded media.

Download and streaming media is speeding up and set to pass physical forms imminently. Netflix is working toward being a streaming business, Redbox said they know they are an interim solution, Amazon and others are combining digital and physical media sales into one purchase, and how many new video rental stores, or even CD stores, have you seem opening recently?

But I don't know for how long.

Place your bets, people.

The physical medium of paper books hold a special sort of value in many cases, so that's a little different. People like touching a book and looking at it and turning the pages. No one I know fondles optical disks, they just want the content on it.

ApK

[chyron8472]

ehh.... I'm not sure you could call ereaders a "doomed technology." Niche market, maybe but certainly not doomed. The only way a multipurpose device would doom ereaders is if one could switch between an eInk and LCD mode on the fly.

*sigh* Sooner would the market for physical books shrink to the point that Borders had to declare bankruptcy. Oh, wait....


I predict that eInk technology isn't going to be doomed by tablets, but that the technology will develop in time such that ereaders will some day have HD resolutions as well as color eInk, while still retaining the ability to read in direct sunlight and last for days and weeks on a single charge.

Niche markets do not a doomed technology make. Look at adventure games: someone might have once said that the market for adventure games was doomed, but if that were true Telltale Games wouldn't be making buckets of money on their games.

[shorttimer1]

I think there might be substance to the article just because of advances in technology. Look at the Kindle 3 with 3G. Many people get it just so they can read check their e-mail. Being it is an ereader, as well as capable of connecting to the internet to check email, read news I wouldn't consider it a dedicated ereader. Just because of new technologies allow you to have so much more. An example would be a cellphone that can just make calls. Don't see many of those around anymore.

[ApK]

I would more liberally consider something to be a dedicated device if it is clearly designed and optimized for the primary function, and other abilities are clearly less functional after-thoughts.

A KRZR phone is a dedicated phone despite it's piddly little camera and LCD display. An iPhone is not.

A Kindle (despite the awesome free 3g browser) is a dedicated reader, an iPad is not.

I think the defining characteristic should be "would most people consider buying this thing if they did not want the primary function?"

Would they buy an iPhone if they didn't talk on the phone much? Sure...pictures, videos, easy messenging, Angry Birds.
A KRZR? Probably not.

Would most people consider buying an iPad or Android tablet even if they didn't care about ebooks? Sure, they might want a portable web browser.
A Kindle? Probably not.

[MrsJoseph]

Originally Posted by ApK

I would more liberally consider something to be a dedicated device if it is clearly designed and optimized for the primary function, and other abilities are clearly less functional after-thoughts.

A KRZR phone is a dedicated phone despite it's piddly little camera and LCD display. An iPhone is not.

A Kindle (despite the awesome free 3g browser) is a dedicated reader, an iPad is not.

I think the defining characteristic should be "would most people consider buying this thing if they did not want the primary function?"

Would they buy an iPhone if they didn't talk on the phone much? Sure...pictures, videos, easy messenging, Angry Birds.
A KRZR? Probably not.

Would most people consider buying an iPad or Android tablet even if they didn't care about ebooks? Sure, they might want a portable web browser.
A Kindle? Probably not.

[boswd]

Originally Posted by ApK

I would more liberally consider something to be a dedicated device if it is clearly designed and optimized for the primary function, and other abilities are clearly less functional after-thoughts.

A KRZR phone is a dedicated phone despite it's piddly little camera and LCD display. An iPhone is not.

A Kindle (despite the awesome free 3g browser) is a dedicated reader, an iPad is not.

I think the defining characteristic should be "would most people consider buying this thing if they did not want the primary function?"

Would they buy an iPhone if they didn't talk on the phone much? Sure...pictures, videos, easy messenging, Angry Birds.
A KRZR? Probably not.

Would most people consider buying an iPad or Android tablet even if they didn't care about ebooks? Sure, they might want a portable web browser.
A Kindle? Probably not.

Kindle awesome web browser in the same sentence

[Namekuseijin]

Last time I checked my friend's kindle, there was no javascript nor css... Just butt-ugly 1996's html...

[ApK]

Originally Posted by boswd

Kindle awesome web browser in the same sentence

Yes, the fact that a reader with free 3G HAS a browser is awesome. And the fact that you can use it with a real keyboard and not with a horrendously awkward battery-draining LCD touch strip makes it doubly awesome.
Try to control your jealously.

[elcreative]

What's the name of the new Kindle then, all the ones I've seen have lots of little buttons, hardly a "real Keyboard" and damn difficult to use if you have any skeleto-muscular problems involving the hands... something a lot of people have... some of the virtual keyboards are actually easier to use under these circumstances... oh and forget the jealousy argument, bought one, used it, discarded it...

Originally Posted by ApK

Yes, the fact that a reader with free 3G HAS a browser is awesome. And the fact that you can use it with a real keyboard and not with a horrendously awkward battery-draining LCD touch strip makes it doubly awesome.
Try to control your jealously.

[boswd]

Originally Posted by ApK

Yes, the fact that a reader with free 3G HAS a browser is awesome. And the fact that you can use it with a real keyboard and not with a horrendously awkward battery-draining LCD touch strip makes it doubly awesome.
Try to control your jealously.

I was actually more referring to eink devices and web browsing being sub par to say the least but since you brought it up

well the one that has lcd touch strip you can actually see your webpage in color on it's lcd screen. and using a touchscreen capactive screen is just a tab bit more modern than that Speak and Spell Texas Instrument Calculator from the 1980's looking device you call the Kindle.



the kindle and all eink and that includes the nook, are all clumsy.

AWESOME is the last word I would use to describe web surfing on eink devices especially the ugly awkard kindle.

just because the kindle runs commericials and it was the only ereader you heard of when you bought it, doesn't make it the best. but that for another topic and thread.