Amazon Kindle e-book downloads outsell paperbacks

[elcreative]

Of course, if the Chinese authorities had overlooked the access by Kindle, they sure know about it now...

Originally Posted by Maggie Leung

About Kindle use in China, widely reported last year:

http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives...t_firewall.php

[Andrew H.]

Originally Posted by Nathanael

You're trying to create an argument by conflating disparate definitions. So, we could argue about this for a month, each of us pretending the other is wrong. Or we could simply define our terms, since this is really a discussion about definitions.

Don't you see a little bit of conflation in this statement, though:

"Epub is the standard because it is the standard of the IDPF."

On the narrow question of technical standards, I don't disagree that epub is one. But IMO, that's not what most people are talking about when they assert that epub is "the standard."

[Nathanael]

Originally Posted by Mike L

If ... Barnes & Noble announced that they were selling more ebooks than paperbacks, that we'd really sit up and take notice.

They did. End of last year B&N announced it sold more ebooks online than it did pbooks. It's not just Amazon.

--Nathanael

[Nathanael]

Originally Posted by Maggie Leung

About Kindle use in China, widely reported last year:

http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives...t_firewall.php

While I wasn't aware of the Kindle's 3G affect vis-a-vis the Chinese Firewall, I think that particular article was a typical case of a media tempest in a teapot. In the overall scheme of things, the number of Chinese citizens buying Kindles off auction sites must be minuscule; those subsequently using them to circumvent the firewall way beyond that. It probably wasn't so much "overlooked" as it was deemed a problem too small to need fixing.

There are much easier ways to circumvent the firewall. I set up a vpn through a proxy service a couple of years ago; it's so transparent I'd completely forgotten I was using it until I read a comment about China blocking Youtube. "What? No they ... oh, that's right."

I suspect with the Kindle now selling directly in electronics venues across China, the number of Chinese Kindle users will pick up dramatically. Of course, those Kindles are jailbroken using the duokan alternative firmware; I'm not sure what, if anything, that does to the Kindle's 3G access.

Now that's an interesting question: is Whispernet about to be overrun with unauthorized graymarket Kindle users?

[EDIT]: Apparently, Duokan doesn't support 3G -- yet. So Whispernet's safe for now.

--Nathanael

[Nathanael]

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

Don't you see a little bit of conflation in this statement, though:

"Epub is the standard because it is the standard of the IDPF."

On the narrow question of technical standards, I don't disagree that epub is one. But IMO, that's not what most people are talking about when they assert that epub is "the standard."

"Conflation"? Hmm, not really. I'm using a single definition. I said "conflate" because the two uses of "standard" in your post clearly implied two different definitions -- the first, Microsoft-style standards, the second ISO-style -- and then tried to equate them.

Since epub and mobi are technical specifications, it would seem reasonable to apply the technical definition of "standard"; and, yes, it would seem (IMO, of course) to be what most folk who assert epub is a standard mean. Certainly, it's what I meant.

Now, on the question of whether .azw is a Microsoft-style standard, I think the jury is still out. There are just far to many variables to be able to declare Amazon the winner.

If we're talking "most books downloaded" Amazon may have the lead, but it doesn't come close to the sort of market domination Microsoft enjoys, nor is it likely to. By most credible estimates (i.e., not Amazon press releases), at the top of its game Amazon held perhaps 60% of the ebook market. And that was before B&N and Apple entered the fray. But, like Amazon, B&N reported selling "millions" of ebooks, and that it's now selling more e- than pbooks online. And, according to this estimate Apple went from zero to 10% of the ebook market in just two months. And neither B&N nor Apple sells azw. I'll be the first to credit Amazon for dragging ereading into the mainstream. However, I think the tide is rising faster than Amazon can control, and I just don't see Amazon's market share going anywhere but down, even while ebook sales skyrocket.

Even in the US market, I just don't see azw as a clear winner. And of course if you want to step outside US borders, .azw can't be had for love or money. Here in China there are four standard e-formats which, near as I can tell, every ereader supports: TXT, PDF, HTML and EPUB. Even Kindles here in Shanghai do epub, but not azw (though, admittedly, they're gray market).

So, even if I were to grant that azw is the "standard" for now, I don't see it remaining so.

--Nathanael

[avantman42]

Originally Posted by Nathanael

Since epub and mobi are technical specifications, it would seem reasonable to apply the technical definition of "standard"; and, yes, it would seem (IMO, of course) to be what most folk who assert epub is a standard mean. Certainly, it's what I meant.

Whenever I've seen anyone say that ePub is the standard, I'd assumed they meant "standard" in the sense of technical standard.

Originally Posted by Nathanael

Even in the US market, I just don't see azw as a clear winner. And of course if you want to step outside US borders, .azw can't be had for love or money.

That's not strictly true. Amazon sell .azw from their UK store, so .azw can be easily obtained in the UK. I'd got the impression that you can also buy .azw books in Canada and much of Europe, at least, but I'm not sure if I'm right on that point.

[Nathanael]

Originally Posted by avantman42

That's not strictly true. Amazon sell .azw from their UK store, so .azw can be easily obtained in the UK. I'd got the impression that you can also buy .azw books in Canada and much of Europe, at least, but I'm not sure if I'm right on that point.

You are, AFAIK. My bad. My statement is perfectly true here in Asia, but there I go forgetting about the other half of "the rest of the world".

--Nathanael

[JSWolf]

Originally Posted by ProfCrash

Whole Foods doesn't sell any of those brands. I don't walk into Whole Foods and demand that they sell me Coke because I know that Whole Foods doesn't sell Coke. I go to Giant or Safeway or Vons or Kroger.

When BN, Sony, Kobo and the other EPub only brands start selling Mobi then I will happily say that Amazon needs to sell EPub. To demand that one store change its policy without demanding that the others do the same is just silly. And a bit unfair.

If you want to buy the occasional book from Amazon and you don't want to strip away the DRM, then use one of the many apps that they have made available to the world for free.

Sony would have been selling Mobipocket if it were not for Amazon's stupid exclusivity rule for Mobipocket DRM. You see, before ePub, Sony tried to add Mobipocket to the 505. But because Sony had LRX and Mobipocket has to be the only DRM format, it didn't happen. If it had happened, Mobipocket would be the #1 format instead of ePub. Basically, Amazon opened the door for ePub. Amazon could have been making a lot more money selling Mobipocket format eBooks. But as it stands now, Mobipocket has basically become AZW.

[JSWolf]

Originally Posted by Nyssa

I am very happy that both Amazon and B&N produced iPhone and PC apps. It allows me to get the best of both worlds, should I choose to use them. I love my Kindle, but I also love B&N, and am happy that I can still support them. My very first e-book purchase was from B&N via Nook for PC. I had no idea (at the time) that I would even come to own an physical e-reader a few months later. I was still weighing my options when hubby gave me the Kindle for Christmas.

But there's a very good chance that Amazon & B&N may soon not be producing iPhone apps given that Apple wants these apps to also have an in-app purchasing system that takes 30% from the sale and gives it to Apple. This means that on in-app purchases, they may make nothing or in some cases less then nothing. So the only reasonable thing to do is pull out instead of giving in. if they give in, then what other unreasonable demands will Apple make to screw other companies into paying Apple money Apple doesn't deserve?

[Andrew H.]

Originally Posted by Nathanael

"Conflation"? Hmm, not really. I'm using a single definition. I said "conflate" because the two uses of "standard" in your post clearly implied two different definitions -- the first, Microsoft-style standards, the second ISO-style -- and then tried to equate them.

You are, of course, the best guide as to what you intended to say. I'll just point out that, for many people, saying something is "the" standard is quite different from saying that something is "a" standard. That's how I read it, in any event. But enough about that.

If we're talking "most books downloaded" Amazon may have the lead, but it doesn't come close to the sort of market domination Microsoft enjoys, nor is it likely to. By most credible estimates (i.e., not Amazon press releases), at the top of its game Amazon held perhaps 60% of the ebook market. And that was before B&N and Apple entered the fray. But, like Amazon, B&N reported selling "millions" of ebooks, and that it's now selling more e- than pbooks online. And, according to this estimate Apple went from zero to 10% of the ebook market in just two months. And neither B&N nor Apple sells azw. I'll be the first to credit Amazon for dragging ereading into the mainstream. However, I think the tide is rising faster than Amazon can control, and I just don't see Amazon's market share going anywhere but down, even while ebook sales skyrocket.

Kindle has 70-80% of the US market. http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-18438_7-20012381-82.html iBooks have become basically a non-entity as a format, as people use their iPads to read Kindle and Nook books. So it doesn't look like the tide is rising faster than Amazon can control; at least in the US, they still seem to be in charge.

However, even though Amazon is throwing up MS numbers, it's not clear that this would lead to MS style dominance. DRM notwithstanding, it's much easier to convert ebook formats from azw to epub than it was to convert MS programs to Mac programs. Or betamax to Sony, for that matter.

Even in the US market, I just don't see azw as a clear winner. And of course if you want to step outside US borders, .azw can't be had for love or money. Here in China there are four standard e-formats which, near as I can tell, every ereader supports: TXT, PDF, HTML and EPUB. Even Kindles here in Shanghai do epub, but not azw (though, admittedly, they're gray market).

So, even if I were to grant that azw is the "standard" for now, I don't see it remaining so.

--Nathanael

I'm not sure yet how much the international market matters yet, particularly given that the US seems to be 75% of the e-reader market (according to this http://publishingperspectives.com/20...reader-market/)

The Kindle is designed to help Amazon sell books (so, too, the Nook and B&N), so I'm not sure to what extent they are actively seeking to compete in markets where they don't sell books in the first place. On the other hand, the fact that, say, France and Germany have such a tiny e-book market would have to look like an invitation...but these countries are also fixed book price companies where Amazon would not be able to compete on price.

[JSWolf]

To be honest, that article is a mess. I doubt Amazon has 80% of the US market.

[Maggie Leung]

Originally Posted by Nathanael

Even in the US market, I just don't see azw as a clear winner. And of course if you want to step outside US borders, .azw can't be had for love or money.

--Nathanael

Originally Posted by Nathanael

You are, AFAIK. My bad. My statement is perfectly true here in Asia, but there I go forgetting about the other half of "the rest of the world".

--Nathanael

I've bought plenty of Kindle books while in China. I have a U.S. address on my credit card, so no problem. Some people use Amazon gift certificates to buy Kindle books if they don't have a U.S. credit card address. Amazon also ships Kindles directly to Asian countries such as India and Japan, and sells .azw content to those users.

[CleverClothe]

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

Kindle has 70-80% of the US market. http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-18438_7-20012381-82.html

Can't possibly be true because I have 90% of the US market. So something doesn't add up with the Amazon numbers.

(Though in seriousness, I would agree that Apple is no where near 20% of the market.)

[Nathanael]

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

Kindle has 70-80% of the US market. http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-18438_7-20012381-82.html

Your link is simply CNET regurgitating an Amazon press release. Now, I won't say press releases aren't credible but -- well, they're not credible. Most independent estimates I've seen placed Amazon's market share at around 60%.

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

iBooks have become basically a non-entity as a format, as people use their iPads to read Kindle and Nook books.

iBooks isn't a format, it's an app. The iBooks format is epub.

Follow the link at the bottom of that CNET article, and you'll find a claim that iBooks is the most popular app on the iPad, with Kindle and Nook flopping around in the 2nd and 3rd spots. This article, and this one, seem to confirm iBooks' popularity.

Another estimate I've seen recently (sorry, can't find it) put Amazon at 40% of iPad ebook sales and Apple at 29%. That's not necessarily inconsistent with iBooks' top ranking (if you believe that), but either way, I don't see how you can get "non-entity" out of that.

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

the US seems to be 75% of the e-reader market (according to this http://publishingperspectives.com/20...reader-market/)

Well, 60% of 75% is 45%, which is consistent with the IDC study (the original study is here):

"Amazon’s Kindle rules e-readers with a nearly 42% share of the market."

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

I'm not sure yet how much the international market matters

Two responses: first, I don't have any numbers (I'm sure the IDC study could shed light, but I'm not willing to pay for it :-); in any case, as evidenced by our discussion, it's possible to google up just about any number you want; I think Mark Twain must have been a google-user), but I strongly suspect the international ereader market is growing faster than the North American one. Chinese bought 3.5 million ereaders in 2010, which is up nearly four-fold from 2009, making for much higher year-on-year growth that the US saw. So, as with Amazon, I don't see the US' market share numbers going anywhere but down.

Further, with Sony making the switch, the second through fourth spots in the IDC study, which comprise 48%, all support epub.

Second, I'm not really sure how much the ereader market matters. Another MR thread is currently discussing a CNET article which predicts that ereaders are a doomed technology, and CNET may be right. The explosion of the tablet market, and the migration of ereading capabilities to many multi-function devices, will certainly eat into dedicated ereader sales (iPad sales alone, according to the IDC report, are expected to be nearly triple the entire ereader market in 2011), as casual readers will have even less reason to drop money on a dedicated device. My own wife is chomping at the bit to get an iPad for reading; she finds my ereader useless. And once I move to a tablet, I may not keep my ereader around either. And I'm sure we're not the only ones. So it's not simply a matter of Amazon competing in the dedicated ereader market, but trying to establish .azw ubiquity across the entire technology industry.

I fear any discussion on epub vs azw that limits itself to the dedicated reader market may be missing the larger picture.

--Nathanael

[Nathanael]

Originally Posted by Maggie Leung

I've bought plenty of Kindle books while in China.

OK, OK, I give! I really intended the statement hyperbolically, but I guess my execution was off.

Let's say, "Yes, you can get azw in China -- if you've imported or carried over a North American Kindle and have established a Kindle account with a US-based credit card and can read English (I don't believe the Kindle currently supports Chinese fonts)." Those are still pretty big hurdles for the huddled Chinese e-reading masses to clear.

Is that acceptable?

--Nathanael