CNET predicts dedicated ereaders are doomed technology - Page 7

sabredog · 01-27-2011, 08:57 AM

This is the ereader prototype from Rand, shown to CNET during the 50's. It was a tad expensive and energy consuming, but they reckoned that a home's nuclear reactor would power it quite fine....

The wheel turns pages and the printer allows instant hard copy. The banks of dials measure page ahead and word count.

They could never lick the screen glare or neck crick though....

kacir · 01-27-2011, 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sabredog

This is the ereader prototype from Rand, shown to CNET during the 50's. It was a tad expensive and energy consuming, but they reckoned that a home's nuclear reactor would power it quite fine....

The wheel turns pages and the printer allows instant hard copy. The banks of dials measure page ahead and word count.

They could never lick the screen glare or neck crick though....

Well, this is a well known hoax that was wildly distributed as "popular mechanics computer vision" from 1950s
http://urbanlegends.about.com/librar...e_computer.htm

In fact, the above picture is a winner of a Photoshoping contest. Damn good one, I would say ...

wannabee · 01-27-2011, 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sabredog

This is the ereader prototype from Rand, shown to CNET during the 50's. It was a tad expensive and energy consuming, but they reckoned that a home's nuclear reactor would power it quite fine....

The wheel turns pages and the printer allows instant hard copy. The banks of dials measure page ahead and word count.

They could never lick the screen glare or neck crick though....

Note the teletype and television long before the 80 column green screen was thought of. My neighbor has a great big wheel like that connected to his computer as well. It comes with a brake and accelerator.
A computer would not be economically viable for the average home.
I don't live in an average home I have two computers. HahAha.

TheJohnNewton · 01-27-2011, 09:48 AM

"...I cover e-readers professionally.

E-Readers have been around for 4 or 5 years now..."

If you cover them professionally then you should know they've been around longer than that. I saw my first one on the Oprah show maybe 10 years ago.

Edit: Per Wikipedia (yes I know some people have reservations about it as a source):

"SoftBook, "The Intelligent Reading System," was one of the first dedicated electronic book (eBook) readers. It was released in 1998 by SoftBook Press, Inc. of Menlo Park, California."

I think the one I saw on Oprah was a Rocket Book by RCA?

TheJohnNewton · 01-27-2011, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boxcorner

Except, Cooley said something like, "... but we're also not a nation of bookworms either. For most of us, the tablet is going to be good enough, especially since our real love is video and the web". So on that basis, there would be no reason to make the universal device as good as a dedicated e-reader for reading, because its purpose would be for displaying video and surfing the Web.

I can agree with his point for most people but obviously there are plenty of readers very happy with dedicated reading devices and the advantages of reflective screens for that use. I don't think those people will magically disappear.

My point is the only reason that dedicated ereaders only do reading is that's all the technology limits of eInk allow. As screens improve and thus the devices can, and will, do more at some point they will no longer be a dedicated ereader. The only reason I could see then for their survival would be if you could make a bare bones super cheap model by not adding any other features.

Andrew H. · 01-27-2011, 10:47 AM

The e-reader article almost seems like it was written five years ago.

While it's true that heavy reading is a minority pursuit (only about 10-15% of the population reads more than 25 books a year), that's 30-40 million people in the US alone. A large enough market on its own to sustain e-readers. Particularly at the sub $200 level.

Last February (when the iPad was announced), and April, when it was released, everyone on the Internet was proclaiming the death of Kindle (and, presumably, all e-readers). These claims were, of course, spectacularly wrong, as the spectacular success in 2010 of the Kindle, and of e-books, generally, has shown...even despite additional handicaps such as agency pricing. Even more interesting is the fact that the iPad has been extremely successful - but even many people who bought an iPad also bought a dedicated reader.

It seems to be the case that heavy readers will pay extra for a dedicated reader if the reader offers some advantage over existing tablets. Since e-ink does so, and a large number of readers have already demonstrated their preference for e-ink over other commercially available screens, there's no evidence that the mere availability of convergent devices will doom e-readers...and plenty of evidence that readers prefer e-ink over existing technology.

Of course, if a tablet comes along that is as good as e-ink, I might end up getting that, and I don't think I will care about a dedicated device...as long as the reading experience is as good as on a dedicated device.

But if you make a convergent device that reads as well as a dedicated e-reader, the device must *also* not make any compromises in its tablet functionality. As the 85% of nonreaders (at least) won't accept a tablet that is inferior to existing tablets in terms of display, battery life, etc., simply to provide a functionality that they don't care about. And, for that matter, I don't think that a lot of readers would care for that either: I, at least, would like the best e-reading experience *and* the best tablet experience.

Plus, non-readers aren't going to want to pay a significant premium ($100-$200) just for the ability to read novels on their tablets.

queentess · 01-27-2011, 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GreenMonkey

There was a recent blog like this that predicted that keys would go away for houses...replaced by digital access systems, keyless entry, etc.

Not. Going to happen.

Yeah... my employer just moved to a new building and it requires a fingerprint to get in to the suite. We've already had 3 different people accidentally shock the device (static electricity is a big deal when it's cold and you've just walked across carpet) and the shock takes the system offline. You have to have someone already inside to be able to reset the system. They haven't come up with an acceptable way around this 'feature' yet, but I'm going to guess keys will be involved.

ApK · 01-27-2011, 11:13 AM

Actually, I think the video was right on. Although the title was "doomed technologies" what he actually SAID about ereaders was "niche for life."

I think he's right. We are not going to see readers in common use like TVs or cell phones or PCs ... or Dead Tree Books.

Even if John Q. Public is an avid reader, he will always be content reading a DTB or reading ebooks on the multipurpose device he already has.
We who fancy dedicated e-readers are and will be a niche market, even if a growing one.
And we ourselves are seeing our 'dedicated' readers expand in functionality with every generation, so he's pretty much right.

I think he was pretty much right on all the others too.

ApK · 01-27-2011, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by queentess

Yeah... my employer just moved to a new building and it requires a fingerprint to get in to the suite. We've already had 3 different people accidentally shock the device (static electricity is a big deal when it's cold and you've just walked across carpet) and the shock takes the system offline. You have to have someone already inside to be able to reset the system. They haven't come up with an acceptable way around this 'feature' yet, but I'm going to guess keys will be involved.

I think your company just has a bad, or poorly chosen, sensor.
There are lots of fingerprint sensors that are not susceptible to static shocks. My company has put in a number of fingerprint sensors in carpeted offices here in the North East US and have never seen that problem.

queentess · 01-27-2011, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by silasgreenback

Your environment sounds a lot less depressing. Where I'm at in the midwest, reading "The Stand" or any bestseller practically makes someone a brainiac.

Those numbers might only be the percentages of those who've admitted they don't bother reading. The real figures might be much worse.

? Where do you live? I'm near Cleveland, and I see people reading all the time while they're out and about, especially on buses or in coffee shops or over lunch.

queentess · 01-27-2011, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kacir

Well, this is a well known hoax that was wildly distributed as "popular mechanics computer vision" from 1950s
http://urbanlegends.about.com/librar...e_computer.htm

In fact, the above picture is a winner of a Photoshoping contest. Damn good one, I would say ...

Quote:

Originally Posted by wannabee

Note the teletype and television long before the 80 column green screen was thought of. My neighbor has a great big wheel like that connected to his computer as well. It comes with a brake and accelerator.
A computer would not be economically viable for the average home.
I don't live in an average home I have two computers. HahAha.

Those fark.com guys are really really good with Photoshop

bhartman36 · 01-27-2011, 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ApK

Actually, I think the video was right on. Although the title was "doomed technologies" what he actually SAID about ereaders was "niche for life."

That's the problem: He engaged in some serious hyperbole. I don't think everyone's going to own an e-reader the same way everyone owns a TV (or almost everyone). But neither do I think dedicated e-readers are going to get killed off. And "niche" is kind of a weasely word. Not a lot of people, percentage-wise, own iPads, so is the iPad a "niche" product?

ApK · 01-27-2011, 12:37 PM

The iPad is currently a niche item, but if by iPad, you mean "general purpose connected computing tablet" then I think the idea is that it will grow beyond a niche and become a widespread common technology, and I think that is what will happen.
If by iPad you mean "overpriced high-style gadget from Apple," then, yes,I think that will remain a niche.

bhartman36 · 01-27-2011, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ApK

The iPad is currently a niche item, but if by iPad, you mean "general purpose connected computing tablet" then I think the idea is that it will grow beyond a niche and become a widespread common technology, and I think that is what will happen.
If by iPad you mean "overpriced high-style gadget from Apple," then, yes,I think that will remain a niche.

I don't know. I just think there aren't a lot of people who need tablets in the first place, just like there aren't a lot of people who need dedicated e-readers. I don't think we'll see the masses chomping at the bit to watch videos and play Angry Birds on a large screen. It's mind-boggling to me that the iPad has sold as well as it has to this point.

I think if you make it a lot cheaper, more people will buy one, but I'm not sure how many more. Does it fill a need for anyone other than the ultrageeky?

NVash · 01-27-2011, 01:18 PM

Honestly Ive put some thought into this and wondered a few times if that is what publishers are trying to do. By gouging peoples eyes out with prices on ebooks they are insuring that no one buys them and sticks to paperback or hardcover. Knowing that they have basically eliminated the need for an ereader. 'Why buy a Kindle and a book when I can get the same thing for half the price', many may ask. We can justify things as many times as we want with things like 'Yes but you can have the book RIGHT THAT MOMENT', but if money is tight who cares? Would you rather have the book at twice the price that very second or wait a few days and have it half off? This pertains to alot of older books, the prices are ridiculous. I know that topic has been beaten to death, Im not trying to

but I just wanted to say that.

IMHO it should never be cheaper to buy an older book and scan it, essentially possibly breaking copyright law Im not sure how that works out, then buying an ebook. I dont care about their reasons, if the book is old news drop the price. If its selling on Amazon on the Marketplace for a penny do you really think people will pay $8 for a Kindle version? Ive seen books like this. Its ridiculous.

Then you throw in this whole format war, DRM, EPUB vs Kindle version, its too much darn trouble. Recently I got a Kindle for Christmas. Great present and I really like it. Friend of mine got a Nook Color. Well, they can get textbooks on their Nook. I looked, seems I cant. I almost regret getting it. Almost. I still like it and know its better on the eyes but Im dismayed that I cannot get many textbooks on it. Im also dismayed that I had to spend so long converting many documents, why couldnt it read the original format? The PDF viewer let me down, why wouldnt it change the font size like it can on a Kindle book? Why cant it read comics? I understand no to color comics at the moment, but what about webcomic collections and other black and white comic anthologies? 'Sin City', 'Maus', 'Bone', things like that, why cant it read those? I could go through the trouble of converting them but I spent enough time converting books, Im sick of converting. Why cant it read some of this stuff right off the bat? These are the kinds of things that make me wonder. All this trouble when I can just buy the book and open it? No DRM there. Cant change the font size, sadly, but some vary in sizes anyway. Comic? Whichever one you want, go for it, color or not. I think about some of these things and the amazingly small library, Im so sick of requesting books for the Kindle, that I wonder if they really do want this to succeed or not.

01-27-2011, 09:48 AM	#94
TheJohnNewton Addict Posts: 256 Karma: 144599 Join Date: Jan 2008 Device: Boox Nova 2	"...I cover e-readers professionally. E-Readers have been around for 4 or 5 years now..." If you cover them professionally then you should know they've been around longer than that. I saw my first one on the Oprah show maybe 10 years ago. Edit: Per Wikipedia (yes I know some people have reservations about it as a source): "SoftBook, "The Intelligent Reading System," was one of the first dedicated electronic book (eBook) readers. It was released in 1998 by SoftBook Press, Inc. of Menlo Park, California." I think the one I saw on Oprah was a Rocket Book by RCA? Last edited by TheJohnNewton; 01-27-2011 at 12:45 PM.

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01-27-2011, 08:57 AM	#91
sabredog Geographically Restricted Posts: 2,629 Karma: 14933353 Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: Perth, Australia Device: Sony PRS-T3, Kindle Voyage, iPad Air2, Nexus7v2	This is the ereader prototype from Rand, shown to CNET during the 50's. It was a tad expensive and energy consuming, but they reckoned that a home's nuclear reactor would power it quite fine.... The wheel turns pages and the printer allows instant hard copy. The banks of dials measure page ahead and word count. They could never lick the screen glare or neck crick though....

01-27-2011, 10:47 AM	#96
Andrew H. Grand Master of Flowers Posts: 2,201 Karma: 8389072 Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Naptown Device: Kindle PW, Kindle 3 (aka Keyboard), iPhone, iPad 3 (not for reading)	The e-reader article almost seems like it was written five years ago. While it's true that heavy reading is a minority pursuit (only about 10-15% of the population reads more than 25 books a year), that's 30-40 million people in the US alone. A large enough market on its own to sustain e-readers. Particularly at the sub $200 level. Last February (when the iPad was announced), and April, when it was released, everyone on the Internet was proclaiming the death of Kindle (and, presumably, all e-readers). These claims were, of course, spectacularly wrong, as the spectacular success in 2010 of the Kindle, and of e-books, generally, has shown...even despite additional handicaps such as agency pricing. Even more interesting is the fact that the iPad has been extremely successful - but even many people who bought an iPad also bought a dedicated reader. It seems to be the case that heavy readers will pay extra for a dedicated reader if the reader offers some advantage over existing tablets. Since e-ink does so, and a large number of readers have already demonstrated their preference for e-ink over other commercially available screens, there's no evidence that the mere availability of convergent devices will doom e-readers...and plenty of evidence that readers prefer e-ink over existing technology. Of course, if a tablet comes along that is as good as e-ink, I might end up getting that, and I don't think I will care about a dedicated device...as long as the reading experience is as good as on a dedicated device. But if you make a convergent device that reads as well as a dedicated e-reader, the device must also not make any compromises in its tablet functionality. As the 85% of nonreaders (at least) won't accept a tablet that is inferior to existing tablets in terms of display, battery life, etc., simply to provide a functionality that they don't care about. And, for that matter, I don't think that a lot of readers would care for that either: I, at least, would like the best e-reading experience and the best tablet experience. Plus, non-readers aren't going to want to pay a significant premium ($100-$200) just for the ability to read novels on their tablets.

01-27-2011, 11:13 AM	#98
ApK Award-Winning Participant Posts: 7,389 Karma: 68329346 Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: NJ, USA Device: Kindle	Actually, I think the video was right on. Although the title was "doomed technologies" what he actually SAID about ereaders was "niche for life." I think he's right. We are not going to see readers in common use like TVs or cell phones or PCs ... or Dead Tree Books. Even if John Q. Public is an avid reader, he will always be content reading a DTB or reading ebooks on the multipurpose device he already has. We who fancy dedicated e-readers are and will be a niche market, even if a growing one. And we ourselves are seeing our 'dedicated' readers expand in functionality with every generation, so he's pretty much right. I think he was pretty much right on all the others too.

01-27-2011, 12:37 PM	#103
ApK Award-Winning Participant Posts: 7,389 Karma: 68329346 Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: NJ, USA Device: Kindle	The iPad is currently a niche item, but if by iPad, you mean "general purpose connected computing tablet" then I think the idea is that it will grow beyond a niche and become a widespread common technology, and I think that is what will happen. If by iPad you mean "overpriced high-style gadget from Apple," then, yes,I think that will remain a niche.

01-27-2011, 01:18 PM	#105
NVash Wandering Vagabond Posts: 282 Karma: 350000 Join Date: Apr 2010 Device: iPod Touch	Honestly Ive put some thought into this and wondered a few times if that is what publishers are trying to do. By gouging peoples eyes out with prices on ebooks they are insuring that no one buys them and sticks to paperback or hardcover. Knowing that they have basically eliminated the need for an ereader. 'Why buy a Kindle and a book when I can get the same thing for half the price', many may ask. We can justify things as many times as we want with things like 'Yes but you can have the book RIGHT THAT MOMENT', but if money is tight who cares? Would you rather have the book at twice the price that very second or wait a few days and have it half off? This pertains to alot of older books, the prices are ridiculous. I know that topic has been beaten to death, Im not trying to but I just wanted to say that. IMHO it should never be cheaper to buy an older book and scan it, essentially possibly breaking copyright law Im not sure how that works out, then buying an ebook. I dont care about their reasons, if the book is old news drop the price. If its selling on Amazon on the Marketplace for a penny do you really think people will pay $8 for a Kindle version? Ive seen books like this. Its ridiculous. Then you throw in this whole format war, DRM, EPUB vs Kindle version, its too much darn trouble. Recently I got a Kindle for Christmas. Great present and I really like it. Friend of mine got a Nook Color. Well, they can get textbooks on their Nook. I looked, seems I cant. I almost regret getting it. Almost. I still like it and know its better on the eyes but Im dismayed that I cannot get many textbooks on it. Im also dismayed that I had to spend so long converting many documents, why couldnt it read the original format? The PDF viewer let me down, why wouldnt it change the font size like it can on a Kindle book? Why cant it read comics? I understand no to color comics at the moment, but what about webcomic collections and other black and white comic anthologies? 'Sin City', 'Maus', 'Bone', things like that, why cant it read those? I could go through the trouble of converting them but I spent enough time converting books, Im sick of converting. Why cant it read some of this stuff right off the bat? These are the kinds of things that make me wonder. All this trouble when I can just buy the book and open it? No DRM there. Cant change the font size, sadly, but some vary in sizes anyway. Comic? Whichever one you want, go for it, color or not. I think about some of these things and the amazingly small library, Im so sick of requesting books for the Kindle, that I wonder if they really do want this to succeed or not.